NEW GUYS! LURKERS!
Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.
Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)
I was just wondering if you were gonna have ness, spreitzer, feist or cokin anymore? Not just today, but hoops as well. Thanks Zak!
Brandon Lang
100 DIME SAINTS
75 dime - COLTS
25 DIME - SAINTS FIRST HALF
25 DIME - VIKINGS-SAINTS OVER
FREE SELECTION - NY JETS-INDIANAPOLIS OVER
1/24 Jets vs Colts & Vikings vs Saints
After tearing apart these 2 games, I have come to the conclusion the right side to both of these games are the home favorites.
I have quite a few reasons why, many of which I will share below but the bottom line for me is I just can't get by a couple of huge facts involving the Jets and the Vikings.
For the Jets, it's been a good run and believe me I was one of the few people who had them both against Cincinnati and the Chargers but they are running into a whole different beast in Indy today.
It's the Jets offense which will lead to their demise today and not their defense.
As for the Vikings, it's one thing to have one bad road game down the stretch, maybe 2 but to implode 3 straight times on the highway to close out the year to the likes of the Cardinals, Panthers and Bears concerns me.
Especially when you were playing for homefield advantage and especially watching the Packers put up 45 on the Cards while the Vikings struggled to put up just 17.
Fact of the matter is New Orleans and Indy were the best teams in the NFL for the better part of the entire year and they were destined to meet in the Super Bowl, and after today destiny will await them.
Now here is why I will be handicapping the Saints-Colts as my 18th straight super bowl winner.
100 DIME - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - (If 3 1/2, you buy the 1/2 and lay 3. Never get beat by the Hook!) - "Tony Romo has receivers running wide open in this Vikings secondary, he just doesn't have time to get them the ball."
Those were the words of Troy Aikman broadcasting the game for FOX last Sunday after Romo was sacked in the 3rd quarter.
At home, playing in the Superdome, the Saints will now have all those advantages the Vikings benefitted from in their home game last week.
And it's with those benefits Drew Brees will have time to throw and he will hit his receivers who will be wide open running through the Vikings secondary.
The bottom line is the Vikings showed me no consistency on the road this year that leads me to believe the outcome of this game will be any different than their last 3 road games this year.
At Arizona on December 6th they got drilled 30-17 as the Cardinals shredded this "awesome" Vikings defense for 398 yards with Kurt Warner going 22 of 32 for 285 yards. He wasn't sacked.
At Carolina on December 20th, they got dominated 26-7 as the Panthers shredded this "awesome" Vikings defense for 397 yards with Matt Moore going 21 of 33 for 273 yards. He was sacked only twice.
At Chicago on December 30th, the Bears beat the Vikings 36-30 in OT as the Bears shredded the "awesome" Vikings defense for 363 yards with Jay Cutler going 20 of 35 for 258 yards. He was sacked only twice.
Now I don't know about you but when the 12th ranked pass offense in Arizona, the 17th ranked offense in the Bears and the 27th ranked pass offense in the Panthers put up those numbers on you, what is # 1 going to do?
Over their last 5 road games Minnesota gave up 27, 26, 30, 26 and 36 points.
The Vikings have 4 road wins this year but look who they are against: Browns, Lions, Rams, and Packers.
I don't care what Minnesota did last week at home against Dallas, that was at home where as you saw last week, there was a reason they were undefeated at Mall of America Field at the Metrodome.
As you can see, this team has been no bargain whatsoever on the road this year and they are not going to be able to just all of a sudden flick on a switch and play great.
Those 3 road games in December meant everything, meant homefield advantage and for all intense and purposes, a clear path to the Super bowl.
And all 3 times they came up short because this team is just one of those type of teams that just can't play on the road and they came up short versus teams not in the class of this Saints bunch.
As for the New Orleans, they showed me last week they are back and back with a vengeance. They could have put up 60 on the Cardinals if they wanted to but Sean Payton called off the dogs.
All I keep hearing is the fact the Saints can't stop the run and Adrian Peterson is going to have a huge day and the Vikings are just going to roll in here and tear it up.
Maybe they should call Kurt Warner and the Cardinals and ask them what it was like because no offense came into a game hotter than the Cardinals did after putting up 51 at home on the Packers.
I'm talking about a Packers defense ranked # 2 overall in the NFL. They were # 1 against the pass and # 5 against the run and Warner and the Cardinals destroyed them for 51 points.
Against the Saints in the Superdome? Try 14 points, with 7 of those coming on the first play of the game and this New Orleans defense knocked Kurt Warner out of the game.
When you have failed as miserably on the road as this Vikings team has, do you really think they are going to be able to just all of a sudden just turn it on here in arguably the most ridiculous environment any of them has ever seen including Brett Favre?
I say to you again, Matt Moore 21 of 33 for 273. Kurt Warner 22 of 32 for 285. Jay Cutler 20 of 35 for 258.
The Vikings can spend all week saying all the right things to the press about how they like their chances but deep down in places only they talk about, they had a chance for homefield and they blew it with those last 3 road losses.
And they will pay for it again dearly today because it cost them a shot at the Super Bowl by having to play the Saints in the Superdome tonight.
Congrats to the city of New Orleans as they move on to face the Colts in the matchup we all expected back when the Saints were 13-0 and the Colts 14-0.
And it's the game we are going to get.
100 DIME SAINTS
25 DIME - SAINTS FIRST HALF
25 DIME - VIKINGS-SAINTS OVER - I love the Saints in the first half of this game, and I love the Over as wel,l and that is the reason I have come with a 25 dime move on the Saints in the first half and Over the total as well.
New Orleans is going to get at least 34 points in this game and it will begin with a big first half and set the tone for getting over the total as well as the Vikings get down early and are forced to abandon their running game.
At that point it will be the old gun slinger letting it fly and the game will find it's way Over the total.
Note the last 4 meetings between these two have gone over the posted total.
Today they make it 5 in a row.
25 DIME SAINTS FIRST HALF
25 DIME VIKINGS-SAINTS OVER
75 DIME - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - (If 7 1/2, buy the 1/2 and lay 7. Never get beat by the Hook!) - They are flat out just a better team.
In there game 4 weeks ago the Colts played their # 1 offense for 6 possessions against this Jets # 1 defense playing for their season.
When Peyton Manning walked off the field with 10:20 to go in the 3rd quarter, his work for the day done, he was 14 for 21 good for 192 yards, 16 first downs and 254 yards of total offense.
The Colts offense under his guidance picked up 16 first downs, put up 15 points but it could have been a lot more.
They had first and goal at the 4, and he missed Reggie Wayne for the TD and he missed Dallas Clark deep inside the 10 on another possession.
All told, the first possession of the game ended with a failed 3rd and 2 at midfield, the 2nd was an 8 play drive covering 54 yards ending with an Addai 21 yard touchdown run.
The 3rd possession resulted in a 10 play drive covering 86 yards and resulted in a field goal after failing to punch it in from first and goal at the 4, the 3rd down play in which he missed an open Wayne.
The 4th drive ended with a failed 3rd and 3 at the Jets 49, just missing Clark down at the Jets 15 while the 5th drive ended stalled at the Jets 44.
The 5th drive stalled at the Jets 44 yard line and the 6th drive was the Colts first drive of the 2nd half after the Jets ran the 2nd half kickoff for a touchdown and what did Manning do on his last drive of the game?
He only went 81 yards on 9 plays for the touchdown and promptly called it a day, although if you saw his body language, he wanted one more drive.
You see, the Colts offense is going to get theirs and there is nothing Rex Ryan and this Jets defense is going to do about it.
The match up of this game is the Jets offense against this Colts defense.
What if I told you the Colts defense played that game 4 weeks ago with 4 starters out. They didn't even field their #1 unit and what did the Jets produce in the first half?
Well, first possession 3 and out punt, 2nd possession 2 first downs and punt, 3rd possession 3 and out, 4th possession 5 first downs field goal and the 5th they ran out the first half clock.
Here is where it's get's more interesting.
In the 2nd half when the Jets starters are now facing even less starters on the Colts defense, their 6th possession is 2 first downs and punt while their 7th is 1 first down and punt.
It was only after the Curtis Painter fumble return for a touchdown and the Jets took the lead did they risk anything offensively and they put together one touchdown drive in the 4th quarter.
People, the defense we all saw shut down the Ravens last Saturday night is the defense the Jets better worry about and just like the Ravens, who couldn't run it in the first half when it counted, the Jets will face the same issues.
Because of the Colts offense and the success I guarantee they have in scoring at least 27 points in this game, Mark Sanchez is going to have to win this game, not just manage it.
There is no doubt in my mind the Jets at some point in this game will be down 2 scores and now let's see how the Jets decided to proceed. They will have to open up their offense which will lead to turnovers, just like Sanchez has been known for.
Indy can play defense, better than people are giving them credit for and you saw it last week versus Baltimore and you will see it this week again.
To a man the Colts defense is tired of hearing about the Jets defense this and the Jets defense that when to a man, they feel completely disrespected.
They will get their respect today.
Time to jump off the Jets gravy train that was so good to me the last 2 weeks against the Bengals and the Chargers because the Colts will be just too good for this Jets team today.
When the Saints and Colts were both 13-0, I knew right then we were destined to have them meet in the Super Bowl.
Destiny happens today.
75 dime - COLTS
FREE SELECTION - NY JETS-INDIANAPOLIS OVER
Big Al
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over the Jets. This play is largely technical in nature, as the Jets fall into several negative situation based on their performances over the past few weeks. First of all, this will be New York's 3rd straight road game (after playing at Cincinnati and San Diego the past two weeks), and NFL teams have always struggled with this kind of schedule, going 12-30 ATS in the Playoffs over the past 30 seasons, if not an underdog of +10 or more points. Further, New York comes into this game off an upset win over the Chargers (as an 8-point underdog), but NFL single-digit underdogs are a poor 31% ATS in the Playoffs off an upset Playoff win (if they were a dog of +6.5 or more points in that previous game). Indianapolis has been a terrific team all season long and, if you discount its two games vs. the Jets and Buffalo to end the season (when head coach Jim Caldwell rested many of his players), then Indy was 15-0 straight up, and covered 11 of those 15 games. I won't buck those numbers. Take the Colts. Good luck, as always...Big Al McMordie. And don't miss my Winner in the NFC game between the Vikes and the Saints.
COLTS
Big Al
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Minnesota. Although Minnesota drilled Dallas 34-3 on the scoreboard, the game was closer than that, statistically. Minnesota and Dallas both had 16 first downs, time of possession was also virtually the same, and the Vikings only outgained the Cowboys 323 yards to 248. But the difference in the game were three turnovers by the Cowboys, combined with two long touchdown passes to Sidney Rice, and two missed Field Goals by Dallas. Now, I don't mean to completely denigrate Minnesota's victory, but there were certain things that the Vikings will need to improve on, if they are to upset the Saints. For example, Adrian Peterson only managed 63 yards on 26 carries for an average of 2.4 yards per rush. Peterson, of course, is a great running back, but his offensive linemen -- especially on the right side of the Vikings line (e.g., tackle Phil Loadholt) -- did a horrible blocking job against the Cowboys. That's one major area of concern. The other is on defense, where Minnesota is really missing the presence (and speed) of linebacker E.J. Henderson, who suffered an injury in the Sunday night game at Arizona back in December. In his stead is Jasper Brinkley, who is OK against the run, but NOT against the pass, and that's terrible news against Drew Brees and the high-octane Saints' offense. Unless Minnesota is able to establish an effective pass rush (and I don't think they'll be able to do that consistently), Drew Brees will slice-and-dice the Vikings' secondary. Of course, it also won't hurt the Saints to have a noisy Superdome crowd cheering them, not to mention making it difficult for the Vikings to audible from the line of scrimmage. Look for a New Orleans win and cover. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my Jets/Colts winner on Sunday.
Big Al
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Minnesota/New Orleans game. The over/under line has been installed at 53.5 points and, dating back 30 NFL seasons, 90% of Playoff Games with a line of 53.5 points (or higher) have gone 'over' the total, including last week's Saints/Cardinals game (the line was 57, and the two teams combined for 59 points). In the Saints' last six games vs. opponents who averaged 27+ points (Minny averages 29.6 ppg), the average combined score has been 65 ppg! This will be a high-scoring game. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie
LARRY NESS
8* Seton Hall -2.5 vs Pittsburgh
The Pirates have won two of their last three games and the lone loss during this stretch came on the road. Taking two out of three was no small feat either as the Pirates hosted Cincinnati and Louisville plus visited Georgetown during this three game stretch. Seton Hall’s last 7 games have included match-ups with 4 ranked opponents. While the Pirates did lose those four games, three of the four defeats came by a single digit margin. Now they catch the right ranked team at the right time to not only play them tough, but get over the hump and get into the win column against a ranked foe. The Panthers will have a bit of a ‘hangover’ here after losing at home to Georgetown by eight points on Wednesday. Pittsburgh had been spoiled by success early this season as, despite losing four starters from last season’s team, the Panthers were perfect in conference play before losing to the Hoyas on Wednesday. While Pittsburgh has been struggling from the perimeter on offense the Panthers have also been struggling to defend the perimeter on defense. This has led to their last two foes shooting a combined 45.7% from beyond the arc. Now Pittsburgh has to try and stop Jeremy Hazell of the Pirates who already has 175 attempts from beyond the arc this season. The Pirates are coming off of a win that boosts their momentum as they got by the Cardinals Thursday. Seton Hall shot 53% in that game and has confidence that, at home, their shots will continue to fall. Though they lost 89-78 to Pittsburgh last season, the Panthers current roster accounted for only 32 of those 89 points. The guys that accounted for 57 of the points are gone. The Panthers guards are coming off of a very poor shooting effort against Georgetown and Pittsburgh now has to visit a Seton Hall team that does well when off of a Big East win. Over the last three seasons, the Pirates are 11-6 ATS when off of a win over a conference rival. With Hazell a scoring machine on the perimeter, and Herb Pope dominating inside, look for the Pirates to defend their home floor very well here. Pope is a native of the Pittsburgh area and the Seton Hall forward has been anxious for this game to show the Panthers what they’re missing with him being a Pirate instead. Pope is averaging 12.3 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game. Hazell and Pope combine for a huge inside-outside combo here and the Panthers suffer ‘unbeaten letdown’ as, after suffering their first Big East loss Wednesday, there will be some carry over to this game Sunday afternoon.
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Originally Posted by stephen6432