Jul 25 MLB [911] STL -124 7%
(spook's pod)
instead of taking blue jay's going to take this up a notch..i've been looking at this since last night and the more i look at it the more i like it...remember this what i'am doing with this play if you don't like it then don't bet it!!
St. Louis has dropped the first two games of this series and, as a result, they've fallen out of first place in the NL Central. I like their chances to avoid the sweep tonight on ESPN.
Chris Carpenter is 10-3 with a 2.73 ERA against the Cubs over the last 10 years. He threw 6.2 innings of 1-run ball at Wrigley Field back on May 28th. Carpenter is only getting stronger as the season progresses. He's allowed just 2 runs on 9 hits in his last two starts, spanning 16 innings. He also had a 10/1 K/BB ratio in those two starts. Those stellar recent results seem to be coming from an adjustment in his delivery, which was bothering him earlier this season.
"I will continue to work on (my delivery) between starts and try to get better again," Carpenter said after his last start. "I was throwing a lot of good sinkers, and they were hitting them into the ground. Early in the count, getting quick outs. And that's what happens when you throw quality pitches early in the count against a team that wants to hit."
Ryan Dempster has good overall numbers and good numbers at home, but he has trouble with this St. Louis lineup. Over the last five years against Dempster: Matt Holliday is 3 for 8; the returning Ryan Ludwick is batting .421 with a homer in 19 AB; Yadier Molina is hitting .318 in 22 AB; Brendan Ryan is hitting .286 with a homer in 7 AB; Skip Schumaker is batting .419 in 31 AB; Albert Pujols is hitting a mediocre .250, but does have 2 homers in 32 AB. On May 30th at Wrigley, Dempster faced the Cards and allowed 6 runs on 9 hits (2 homers) in 6.2 innings.
As far as bullpens go, I have to give the edge to St. Louis. While the road numbers for the Cards' pen are pretty even with the Cubs pen's home numbers, it's the Cards' pen that is performing better right now. Over their last 10 games, the St. Louis pen owns a 1.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. The Cubs pen sports a 5.59 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over their last 10 games.
Bottom line: I give the Cards the edge in starting pitching and in the bullpen. The return of Ryan Ludwick should provide a spark to a lineup that has lost three straight games, but has done well against Dempster. Speaking of losing three straight games, the Cards are 3-1 this season in games following a third straight loss. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Carpenter's last 4 starts vs. the Cubs, while the Cubs are 0-4 in Dempster's last 4 starts vs. the Cardinals. Sure looks like a great spot for the Cards to avoid the embarrassing sweep. Take St. Louis/Carpenter over Chicago/Dempster.