Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Cyborg - Jan 29th

[MMA_scientist]

If I were going to do it, I would do it on Torres of the current fights at the current lines. I actually already bet on Bader and I think Omigawa could give Mendez some trouble as well. This is not a gidd Kamikaze card, because I already have bets on Belfort, Bader, and Griffin. I also have a long magic parlay rounding out from the last UFC which includes "not banuelos by submission" and "not franklin by submission".

I am still going to do it though (kamikaze bet). I am to the point where I need to take a step back... somewhere along the way I went horribly wrong. I am down like 1/3 of my bankroll since last November. So I am going to go to the formula that I used to build my bankroll, which is essentially a 5u bankroll. When I came on this site about a year ago, I had a 10k bankroll... I had to cash out some of it for life use, and then I lost a good chunk recently. I am going to go all in with my $3500 and get it up to at least $7k before tax time. Or I am going to go down in glorious kamikaze flames. Then I will take a few months off and reload and start over. But at this point, I feel the kamikaze bankroll building method is best for me. I also need to start a rigorous bankroll management system after the successfull re-build.

I am going to look at all the fights in the next couple weeks. I will probably do 1/3 or 1/4 on a few different fights. I need a poll on the upcoming fights.

[edman5555]

I don't know if Torres is a good kamikaze bet. I don't know much about Banuelos other than the fact that he is a collegiate wrestler but I usually don't like to bet against the wrestler.

[poopoo333]

Kamikaze on the biggest underdog on the card. DO IT!

[Luke]

If I were going to do it, I would do it on Torres of the current fights at the current lines. I actually already bet on Bader and I think Omigawa could give Mendez some trouble as well. This is not a gidd Kamikaze card, because I already have bets on Belfort, Bader, and Griffin. I also have a long magic parlay rounding out from the last UFC which includes "not banuelos by submission" and "not franklin by submission".

I am still going to do it though (kamikaze bet). I am to the point where I need to take a step back... somewhere along the way I went horribly wrong. I am down like 1/3 of my bankroll since last November. So I am going to go to the formula that I used to build my bankroll, which is essentially a 5u bankroll. When I came on this site about a year ago, I had a 10k bankroll... I had to cash out some of it for life use, and then I lost a good chunk recently. I am going to go all in with my $3500 and get it up to at least $7k before tax time. Or I am going to go down in glorious kamikaze flames. Then I will take a few months off and reload and start over. But at this point, I feel the kamikaze bankroll building method is best for me. I also need to start a rigorous bankroll management system after the successfull re-build.

I am going to look at all the fights in the next couple weeks. I will probably do 1/3 or 1/4 on a few different fights. I need a poll on the upcoming fights.

^^^^^If you plan on doing this for a good portion of your income someday this is not a good idea to do now,later ,ever. When we lose 4 ,5,10 units in a small amount of time its never a good idea to try and get it all back at once .How are we/you/us ever going to learn to regroup if our solution is to just chase your losses big to play catch up? Thats part of the game ,figuring out whats going wrong ,adjusting it and moving on .

Its not just you MMAscientist theres other people here that were doing just fine and all the sudden hit a bad spot and now they too what to start betting big. Part of the gambling game is stick to money management . Theres one guy on here that use to chase all the time but I'm really happy to see he isnt anymore

I'm not saying this to criticize because its your money so do whatever you think is best but I thought the point of this place was so we all got better together and learn from our mistakes. I'm saying this as a friend and someone that wants to see everyone make a ton doing this someday

[MMA_scientist]

^ I actually think Belfort has a really good chance and he is +225 or so...

[MMA_scientist]

^^^^^If you plan on doing this for a good portion of your income someday this is not a good idea to do now,later ,ever. When we lose 4 ,5,10 units in a small amount of time its never a good idea to try and get it all back at once .How are we/you/us ever going to learn to regroup if our solution is to just chase your losses big to play catch up? Thats part of the game ,figuring out whats going wrong ,adjusting it and moving on .

Its not just you MMAscientist theres other people here that were doing just fine and all the sudden hit a bad spot and now they too what to start betting big. Part of the gambling game is stick to money management . Theres one guy on here that use to chase all the time but I'm really happy to see he isnt anymore

I'm not saying this to criticize because its your money so do whatever you think is best but I thought the point of this place was so we all got better together and learn from our mistakes. I'm saying this as a friend and someone that wants to see everyone make a ton doing this someday

I have given up on every making a living doing this, because I would need a bankroll somewhere in the 1-2 million dollar range to actually earn an income off it. So it is more about "investing" to build a stack for me. I won't ever be able to make an income off it.

But your point is still true, and I have always acknowledged that. I guess I am getting to the point where I want to be either out or in. I am tired of playing small stakes. So I am to the point where I can either get my bankroll up and then start making good bets or go down in flames, call it a failed experiment and get insterested in the stock market again (that was my former passion).

But I concede the point, you are 100% right.

[poopoo333]

^^I hope your kamikaze works out so you stick around.

[edman5555]

I feel like Jon Jones is probably the best bet. Maybe I am way off on that. I know you see value in Bader but I think Jones will beat him. The main reasons I think so are JJ has destroyed every other wrestler he has faced: Jake O brien, Matt Hamill, Vlady, and Brandon Vera(he was able to stop Randy from taking him down)) and lastly, he has a 10 inch reach advantage. Oh and he has also been training to fight wrestlers for the past couple of years now, one camp after another to prepare him for a wrestler. Bader has been doing well himself but he doesn't seem as quick with his strikes(I may have to go and watch some tape). From what I hear his fight with Nog was somewhat close and Jardine won the second round before getting knocked out. Jardine also has been doign really really shitty. It may not be wise to take away from Baders wins because he has been winning, but I just don't see that much in him. He seems like he wins by being a wrestler that can slug.

Jon Jones just seems to be so ridiculously talented, mature and just flat out gifted. He looks remarkably calm before he enters the cage, and he destroys everyone. Hamill and Vera had to have surgery on their faces. And again he has the longest reach in the ufc.

[edman5555]

I am in a similar position. I can't see myself ever making a big living doing this. I am sick of the ups and downs, especially after the amount of time I have put into this. I am going to make some big bets probably. I'm going to go Kamikaze. I hope it works out, either way it won't kill me. It would be nice to get some cash though. I am basically going to do the same thing as Scientist. If it all works out I am probably just going to make smaller bets a lot more and wait for single bets I feel really confident in and load up. I am lacking in discipline and I know this isn't helping but I am mad I lost everything I made this month. I am still about even but I am still upset about it. I will probably dump a lot on Cerrone and Jones. Pending some research..
But I concede the point, you are 100% right.[/QUOTE]

[MMA_scientist]

Luke the issue I am having is a lot like yours lately. I still feel I correctly handicap most of the fights. So I think I am actually pretty good at "seeing" fights and handicapping, but lately, I am just making the wrong bets. Then afterward, I usually see where I made a mistake, but it is always something I failed to consider. I am starting to think that the variables are too great, that there are just too many variables to pin down a fight with any accuracy. I suppose the way around that is to never pay a price to bet, ie no favorites. But that is a long slow arduous trek.

[poopoo333]

I am in a similar position. I can't see myself ever making a big living doing this. I am sick of the ups and downs, especially after the amount of time I have put into this. I am going to make some big bets probably. I'm going to go Kamikaze. I hope it works out, either way it won't kill me. It would be nice to get some cash though. I am basically going to do the same thing as Scientist. If it all works out I am probably just going to make smaller bets a lot more and wait for single bets I feel really confident in and load up. I am lacking in discipline and I know this isn't helping but I am mad I lost everything I made this month. I am still about even but I am still upset about it. I will probably dump a lot on Cerrone and Jones. Pending some research..
But I concede the point, you are 100% right.

[/QUOTE]

Seriously? Come on man you go on about how you were changing things this year, go on a tear, and have what? one losing night (due to a huge bet/"fluke) followed up by a very small losing night? No offense but this is worse then the fatties that go for walks for 2 weeks in January for a new years resolution and quit right away.

[MMA_scientist]

^^I hope your kamikaze works out so you stick around.

I am too addicted to mma to actually quit. If I lost, I would probably just reload and start over.

[poopoo333]

Luke the issue I am having is a lot like yours lately. I still feel I correctly handicap most of the fights. So I think I am actually pretty good at "seeing" fights and handicapping, but lately, I am just making the wrong bets. Then afterward, I usually see where I made a mistake, but it is always something I failed to consider. I am starting to think that the variables are too great, that there are just too many variables to pin down a fight with any accuracy. I suppose the way around that is to never pay a price to bet, ie no favorites. But that is a long slow arduous trek.

This seems to be the same thing for me lately. Looking at my MMA bets since the beginning of this year these are the ones that stick out to me:

Marcus Davis losing to Jeremy Stephens. I thought he was going to win the exchanges on the feet and be the better grappler. He was. Round 3..he gets KOd.

Nate Coy losing to Nate Moore last night. I saw him being the better grappler and controlling the fight...like he did in round 1. In round 2 his head gets punched into the audience.


Then the fights I sort of followed on but agreed with the reasoning:

best example is the Rich Clementi fight the other night..he outclasses his opponent and ends up getting choked out in round 3.


While we are on the "improvement conversation", I need to start going bigger on the fights I am confident on, and going less on the fights I am just sort of confident on. Example: I was very confident in Brenneman last weekend, I bet to win a unit. Then when I am confident in other favorites, but not AS confident..I still bet to win a unit. I need to get the whole bet to win a unit thing out of my head when it comes to favorites.

[MMA_scientist]

edman, I have always had trouble losing. I hate losing bets. It is why I could never make any money playing poker either, I would make the "right" play and some donk would draw out and beat me. i would go on tilt and raise the stakes. The swings were too much for my demeanor. I liked MMA betting because I used to virtually never lose. But I bet much less frequently when I first started, I would just wait for the right bet. Now, I feel like I have to have action on every card or I am missing an opportunity.

[MMA_scientist]

This seems to be the same thing for me lately...While we are on the "improvement conversation", I need to start going bigger on the fights I am confident on, and going less on the fights I am just sort of confident on. Example: I was very confident in Brenneman last weekend, I bet to win a unit. Then when I am confident in other favorites, but not AS confident..I still bet to win a unit. I need to get the whole bet to win a unit thing out of my head when it comes to favorites.

Yeah, you definitely have ot vary your bet sizes for the better bets. I guess that is my issue... I used to make a lot fewer bets, and every bet was something I was very confident about. Now I bet on all sorts of shit.

The Clementi fight is one that I was thinking about too. He was so much better than that kid, and he really should have put him away. Then the Stack fight, he gets caught with a flying knee... The one that is just fucking with my mind is the Brown/Yahya fight. I was really confident in Brown, and I though there was no way Yahya would get him down, and then if he did get him down, Brown would probably survive. Well, he did survive, but I was surprised to see Yahya just taking him down repeatedly. I have gone back over that fight and I just can't where I made a mistake... Brown just wasn't mentally in it. There is no accounting for variables like that. And it is the same thing that happened to Clementi. He had no respect for the kid, you can't just let a guy slap a triangle on you and hope your prestige is going to get you out. I guess I could have considered that both guys are on slides, and they might be mentally checked out... but Yahya was on a worse slide than MTB. So I don't know how I can account for that stuff.

[edman5555]

edman, I have always had trouble losing. I hate losing bets. It is why I could never make any money playing poker either, I would make the "right" play and some donk would draw out and beat me. i would go on tilt and raise the stakes. The swings were too much for my demeanor. I liked MMA betting because I used to virtually never lose. But I bet much less frequently when I first started, I would just wait for the right bet. Now, I feel like I have to have action on every card or I am missing an opportunity.

I know how you feel with the action on every card thing. Honestly I just need something else to take away some of my energy. What I might end up doing is placing like 25 percent of my bankrol lon Jon Jones and 25 percent on Cerrone. Something crazy like that. I also think Forrest is a good bet.

[edman5555]

MB had fought like 3 weeks before. Maybe he was overworked. There are always going to be variables like that though. It kinda sucks. How was I supposed to know Clementi would act like a jackass? He didn't think he could lose, he lost because of that.

[MMA_scientist]

MB had fought like 3 weeks before. Maybe he was overworked. There are always going to be variables like that though. It kinda sucks. How was I supposed to know Clementi would act like a jackass? He didn't think he could lose, he lost because of that.

That is what I am saying... I thought I had everything covered for the MTB fight. There are too many variables. Of course it works both ways (sometimes the other guy is going to suck for some unknown reason) but it won't happen 4x as often just because he is an underdog. Which is an actual logical reason not to pay for favorites (the information is not complete, and that affects both sides equally).

[Svino]

It's certainly true that the less information I have, the less willing I am to bet a favorite.

[edman5555]

Yeah. It might be smarter to stick to bets at close to even. It's almost not worth it to bet -300 sometimes. You can end up getting Clementi'd. At -300 we have to win 4 bets for every 1 we lose in order to make a profit. I feel like it's doable but kinda hard.