UFC on Versus 6

**Svino** · 10-01-2011, 01:17 AM

Originally Posted by poopoo333

No sub of the night award issued=+1700 on bookmaker

I can't imagine this one going without some submissions -- too many low level fighters.

**Svino** · 10-01-2011, 01:41 AM

I was surprised to see Jordan Breen's take on Struve / Barry:

I am absolutely shocked Barry is a sizable favorite. I have placed money on Stefan Struve at +160, and would advise gambling types to consider doing likewise.

Pat Barry was submitted by Mirko Cro Cop and Tim Hague. Stefan Struve, while he has been knocked out dramatically and memorably, is still 5-3 in the UFC and can take punishment. He has also submitted BJJ black belts. He can sweep and submit from guard.

Not to say Barry can't win, but if Struve just grabs him and pulls guard, that might be the end. Not unwinnable for one of MMA's most winning personalities, but the odds should be flipped in Struve's favor.

We'll see, I guess. I rarely bet strikers over grapplers, even having a "rule" against betting on sprawl-and-brawl favorites. But I just see Struve getting smashed here.

**SPX** · 10-01-2011, 01:49 AM

I do have some concerns, mostly due to the size difference. If Struve wasn't so tall and long I wouldn't be too worried, but I'm a little afraid he'll just rush Barry and wrap him up like a spider.

**MMA_scientist** · 10-01-2011, 10:45 AM

I am slightly concerned with my Barry bet, but not really. I don't think Struve will be able to take him down... we are talking about a guy that couldn't take Pual Buentello1 down. he has a dangerous guard, but I don't he can get Barry down.

**poopoo333** · 10-01-2011, 11:57 AM

Originally Posted by Svino

I can't imagine this one going without some submissions -- too many low level fighters.

Subs I can see happening:

Watson
Sass
Maybe Easton
Maybe Neer
Roller
Struve
Brenneman

**MMA_scientist** · 10-01-2011, 12:03 PM

Yeah, I will be pretty suprised if there are no subs. There can't be more than a handful of cards that have gone off without a submission. Check on that poopoo.

**SPX** · 10-01-2011, 12:08 PM

I actually have already looked into that. If I remember correctly, it's less than 10 total in the entire history of the UFC.

**poopoo333** · 10-01-2011, 12:10 PM

This year..

UFC 128
UFC 133
UFC 134

No subs

**poopoo333** · 10-01-2011, 12:14 PM

WHATEVER there are gonna be no subs tonight and I'm gonna win 17u

**SPX** · 10-01-2011, 12:25 PM

BOL!

I remember when I hit that +950 no subs bet. That was glorious, but marred by the fact that I didn't put much on it and that by the end of the night I had lost like 8u so winning a unit and quarter just wasn't much to get too excited about.

**Svino** · 10-01-2011, 12:42 PM

Originally Posted by MMA_scientist

Yeah, I will be pretty suprised if there are no subs. There can't be more than a handful of cards that have gone off without a submission. Check on that poopoo.

I think it's trending down though. Which might mean no-subs props will get some value if betting houses are still going by old stats. As I said though, I'd save it for stacked-looking, numbered UFC events.

**MMA_scientist** · 10-01-2011, 01:04 PM

Originally Posted by Svino

I think it's trending down though. Which might mean no-subs props will get some value if betting houses are still going by old stats. As I said though, I'd save it for stacked-looking, numbered UFC events.

Agree. Two things really contribute to submissions. A large skill difference on the ground (it has to be kind of a big gap) and more than anything... fatigue. You can tap a person out sooo much easier when they are tired, especially with chokes. It gives them a way out and and it is harder to defend when tired, and the air and oxygen flow is already constricted, it doesn't take much. Guys that gas out, bet on the submission props. I am pretty sure that is why Jones tapped Rampage out, he just wanted out of the fight and he was tired.

**Svino** · 10-01-2011, 01:14 PM

Originally Posted by MMA_scientist

Agree. Two things really contribute to submissions. A large skill difference on the ground (it has to be kind of a big gap) and more than anything... fatigue. You can tap a person out sooo much easier when they are tired, especially with chokes.

Yeah, fatigue or just being rocked. Submissions used as a "finishing move" are definitely going to be around for a long time.

**SPX** · 10-01-2011, 01:17 PM

**Luke** · 10-01-2011, 01:27 PM

Originally Posted by sbjj

Why not? What makes you so sure he will not. Real stuff, not that Johnson is bigger. What is it that Johnson has showed you that makes you so sure Brenneman can not control 2 out of 3 rounds? Can you point out someone compareable that Johnson has beat?

If it was even money, i could see your point. But it is not, Brenn. is damn near a 2 to 1 dog to a guy who has not beat anyone as good as him.

Why does anyone care if I disagree with them,I'm like the worst MMA person on here?

**SPX** · 10-01-2011, 01:29 PM

Luke -- He gets pissed when he thinks no one cares what he thinks, and he gets pissed when he thinks that people do.

**Svino** · 10-01-2011, 01:37 PM

This is BookMaker's list of distance prop lines for Johnson vs. Cruz. Why do people set up lines "upside down" like this? Has there ever been a fight that was, a priori, more likely to end in the third round than the first? I actually doubt it. And what kind of a loon would bet on a five-rounder to end in the fifth at only +300!? Danzig / Wiman is similarly inverted. It's going to be interesting to see how these lines evolve live as the fight progresses.

FIGHT ENDS IN RD-1			+550
FIGHT ENDS IN RD-2			+450
FIGHT ENDS IN RD-3			+400
FIGHT ENDS IN RD-4			+350
FIGHT ENDS IN RD-5			+300
FIGHT GOES TO DECISION			-275

Supposedly, someone did a statistical study of UFC fights and concluded that a given fight was about equally likely to end in any given minute that it was active, up until about midway through the 3rd round, at which point that probability tails off noticeably. That certainly feels about right to me. (One way to think of this is that it's equivalent to fights having a given "half life" in the early rounds, So if a fight is 50% likely to be finished before the end of round 1, it is 75% likely to be finished by the end of round 2.)

**Luke** · 10-01-2011, 01:38 PM

SPX : he never responds to texts

**poopoo333** · 10-01-2011, 01:46 PM

Svino...bookmaker's odds on props are always weird. Last night they opened every single over/under (just about) @-115. Cruz/MM was over 4.5 was -115. If I tried to place that bet right away instead of checking it and looking at other lines, I would have gotten it. Danzig/Wiman over 2.5 was -115 as well. And they have a Bantamweight fight (that 1st one on the card) as an over/under 1.5..I think over 1.5 @-115 in most bantamweight fights always have value, unless Jason Reindhart is involved.

**MMA_scientist** · 10-01-2011, 01:52 PM

Originally Posted by Svino

Supposedly, someone did a statistical study of UFC fights and concluded that a given fight was about equally likely to end in any given minute that it was active, up until about midway through the 3rd round, at which point that probability tails off noticeably. That certainly feels about right to me. (One way to think of this is that it's equivalent to fights having a given "half life" in the early rounds, So if a fight is 50% likely to be finished before the end of round 1, it is 75% likely to be finished by the end of round 2.)

That's interesting. I would like to see it by weightclass though. It is a fact that the heavier the fighters, the less likely a decision. I wonder what effect it has on distance though, assuming they get through the first round, I wonder if there is noticeable difference between HW and MW for example.

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