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Dr Bob
2 Star Best Bet
**Penn St. (+7) 21 OHIO ST. 20
19-Nov-2011 12:30PM Pacific
Penn State is a better team than Ohio State and the only question here is their mental state after last week’s median storm in Happy Valley. My feeling is that the players are more focused on football than ever in the midst of the scandal and getting away from home will probably do them some good. It’s hard to say whether they’ll be up or down emotionally for this game, so I won’t quantify it, but I do know that Ohio State applies to a negative 4-34-1 ATS subset of a 23-68-1 ATS situation that plays against teams coming off an upset road loss. I also know that great defensive teams are good bets as underdogs. In fact, winning teams that allow less than 14 points per game are 118-65-3 ATS when getting 6 points or more, including 19-6 ATS the week after a loss. I love that trend because it’s so simple and makes so much sense. It also doesn’t hurt that Penn State is the better team on both sides of the ball.
Penn State is getting a lot of heat for how bad their offense has been this year, but it’s actually better than Ohio State’s offense. The Nittany Lions have averaged only 5.1 yards per play this season against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, but they’re only 0.1 yppl worse than average with Matt McGloin at quarterback and McGloin is no longer splitting snaps with a horrible Rob Bolden, who completed only 43% of his passes this season for only 4.5 yards per pass play. Ohio State’s offense, meanwhile, has also averaged 5.1 yppl and they’ve done so against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. The Buckeyes are only slightly better with Braxton Miller at quarterback (they’re 0.3 yppl worse than average), as Miller’s good running is offset by his horrendous 4.6 yards per pass play. So, the worst part about Penn State’s team, their offense, is actually better than Ohio State’s offense.
The Nittany Lions are also better on defense, as they’ve yielded just 4.3 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. Ohio State has a solid defensive unit, but the Buckeyes are only 0.7 yppl better than average (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit), so Penn State has a 0.6 yppl advantage defensively to go along with their 0.2 yppl advantage offensively. Ohio State does have better special teams and is projected to have a 0.4 edge in projected turnovers (because they don’t throw it much anymore), but my math model favors the Buckeyes by just 3 points even with the home field advantage. So, we’ve got pretty solid line value to go along with the good situations and I’ll take Penn State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.
2 Star Best Bet
**Navy (-5.0) 40 SAN JOSE ST. 27
19-Nov-2011 1:00PM Pacific
San Jose State has lost 3 straight games to eliminate themselves from bowl contention and the last thing that a struggling team needs is a visit from the Midshipmen. Navy has always been a good traveling team, perhaps because of their discipline and focus to the task at hand. Whatever the reason, the Middies are over 60% away from home for over 30 years and they’re particularly deadly against struggling teams. Navy is 60-17-1 ATS away from home against teams coming off a loss and they’re 46-11-1 ATS away from home when not laying more than 14 points against teams with a losing record (36-7-1 ATS is the record when both conditions are met). Navy also applies to a very strong 32-2-2 ATS late season momentum situation and I just don’t see how a porous San Jose State defense is going to stop Navy’s precise option attack. The Spartans were pretty solid defensively at the beginning of the season but injuries took their toll and the defense has been horrible after a couple of starters went down in September. San Jose State has given up an average of 452 yards in their last 7 games and have allowed 5.7 yards per rushing play (to teams that would combine to average just 4.7 yprp against an average defense). Navy has faced 3 bad defensive teams this season (Delaware, Western Kentucky, and Troy) and the Midshipmen have scored 40 points or more in all 3 of those games and should get that here. San Jose State should have some success throwing the ball against a bad Navy defense, but SMU has a better offense than the Spartans and they were shut down last week. My math model favors Navy by 5 ½ points if I use a standard home field advantage in this game. However, Navy doesn’t have a road disadvantage, so the normal home field advantage is cut in half in their games and that gives me a fair line of 7 points. The situation and team trends are incredibly favorable and I’ll take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 3-Stars at -4 or less.
Strong Opinion
TEXAS (-8.0) 31 Kansas St. 17
19-Nov-2011 5:00PM Pacific
Texas is really banged up offensively, as their top 3 running backs could miss this game (one is certainly out and the other two are questionable) along with top WR Jaxon Shipley. Actually, quarterback David Ash has averaged 6.7 yard per pass play in two games without Shipley, which is better than his season average, so that injury doesn’t appear to be significant and Texas usually has plenty of talent at receiver. The Longhorns usually have plenty of talent at running back too, but they could be down to their 4th string tailback for a second straight week. I’ll assume that will be the case and my math favors the Longhorns by 7 ½ points in this game with Jeremy Hills and D.J. Monroe splitting carries in the backfield.
I’ve been looking for a good spot to go against a lucky Kansas State team that isn’t nearly as good as their record and this looks like a good spot. The Wildcats are 8-2 straight up and 8-1 ATS against Division 1A opponents, but they’ve been out-gained 372 yards at 5.4 yards per play to 445 yards at 6.3 yppl while rating at 0.1 yppl better than average offensively and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively after compensating for their schedule strength. Kansas State has managed to go 8-2 because they’re +13 in turnover margin in their 9 games against 1A opponents and are a very fortunate 6-1 in games decided by 7 points or less – winning 3 of those games as a direct result of turnovers. Kansas State could easily be 5-5 right now, which is why they’re an underdog of more than a touchdown in this game.
So why am I interested in going against a team that is 8-1 ATS in Division 1A games? Kansas State has given up 50 points or more in 3 consecutive games, which is pretty rare, and teams that have done that are 0-6 ATS in conference games when not getting at least 35 points. More importantly, the Wildcats apply to a very, very negative 4-51-1 ATS situation that is based on their recent horrible defense. I realize that betting against Kansas State seems risky given their 8-1 ATS mark, but teams with a win percentage of greater than .667 that are 7 games or more above .500 against the spread in their 1A games are actually just 13-29 ATS on the road. The only thing keeping me from pulling the trigger on this game is questionable status of Texas running backs Malcom Brown and Joe Bergeron. Texas should still have a decent rushing attack even if both of those backs don’t play, but Brown and Bergeron have combined for 1049 yards at 5.5 ypr, so the rushing attack would be even better if one or both can play. I’m assuming neither will play and the math favors Texas by 7 ½ points if that is the case, so the line is still pretty fair since 8 is a dead number (and so is 9). I get Texas by 9 ½ points if Bergeron can play (he’s averaging 6.9 ypr) so keep an eye on the injury report. I’ll consider Texas a Strong Opinion at -10 or less and I’d take the Longhorns in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 or less based on the strong situation going against Kansas State.
Ben Burns
10* Texas -8.5
10* California +18
Big al ncaaf
4* ucla -10.5 pac 12 g.o.y
4* texas -9.5 big 12 revenge g.o.y
3* penn st +7
3* wyoming -24 m.w. Conf g.o.y.
3* texas tech +18
3* nevada -7 wac favorite of year
3* western kentucky -3
1* south fla +1
1* utep +13.5
1* vandy -1.5
1* tcu -32.5
1* purdue +2.5
1* byu -22 road kill game
1* michigan -3.5
Ness
Legend Arizona St.
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