UFC on FX 5 Bets

[poopoo333]

What will be tracked?

Straight bets
-Fights that are posted like this:
-Tim Sylvia risking 100 units to win 1 unit
-Seth Petrizezli risking .6 units to win 1 unit
-Carlo Prater by DQ risking 1u to win 1000u

Props (will be tallied as straight bets)
-Edgar by TKO risking 1u to win 7.5u

-Parlays will be tracked seperately.

-We will have a seperate results thread for Boxing and MMA

[poopoo333]

3u to win 1u on Darren Uyenoyama
1.75u to win 2.28u on Aaron Simpson
1.7u to win 1u on Jacob Volkmann
1.75u to win 1u on Shane Roller/Jacob Volkmann goes distance
1.45u to win 1u on Marcus LeVesseur
4.63u to win 2.5u on Aaron Simpson/Mike Pierce over 2.5 rds
2u to win 3.1u on Danny Castillo
1u to win 2.5u on Justin Edwards
2.5u to win 8.05u on Jake Ellenberger ITD
6u to win 10.5u on Antonio Bigfoot Silva
1.38u to win 18.67u on Travis Browne via Decision

0.5u to win 8.48u on:

Pending	10/5/12 5:00pm UFC Fighting 1801 Darren Uyenoyama -270* vs Phil Harris
				Pending	10/5/12 4:30pm UFC Fighting 1901 Marcus LeVesseur -120* vs Carlo Prater
				Pending	10/5/12 11:00pm Bellator Fighting 2002 Thiago Santos -650* vs Eric Prindle
				Pending	10/5/12 9:30pm Props Fighting 1030 Any other result -1580* vs Browne wins in round 3
				Pending	10/5/12 9:00pm Props Fighting 1132 Any other result -1140* vs Ellenberger wins by submission
				Pending	10/5/12 8:00pm Props Fighting 1203 Dodson/Formiga goes 3 round distance -195* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
				Cancelled	10/5/12 7:30pm Props Fighting 1403 Stephens/Edwards goes 3 round distance -210* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
				Pending	10/5/12 6:00pm Props Fighting 1603 Roller/Volkmann goes 3 round distance -175* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
				Pending	10/5/12 5:30pm Props Fighting 1703 Palaszewski/Nunes goes 3 round distance -190* vs Fight won't go 3 round distanc

[Svino]

2.5u to win 8.05u on Jake Ellenberger ITD

Well that seems like a good... wait... what?

[poopoo333]

Well that seems like a good... wait... what?

What do you mean?

[Svino]

What do you mean?

Is that actually not a typo? Where did you get that line? Is it still up?

[poopoo333]

It was the opening line, +322.

[Svino]

OK, wow. Is that 5d?

Anyway, I'd set the line for that at +150 at the highest.

[poopoo333]

Yeah, 5D. Would have went bigger on it +322 but $100 limits.

[Vandelay]

Nice find there. I may take Ellenberger by ko (probably around 200) or Ellenberger in rd 1 which may be around 350.

[poopoo333]

I'm not ruling out Hieron to win, but I think Ellenberger definitely has the potential to KO Hieron. Hieron is a bit chinny and Ellenberger is pretty damn powerful. Hopefully he isn't tentative because his gassing out in the Kampmann fight.

[edman5555]

Is Hieron really that chinny? Ellenberger is a beast on the feat that can KO anyone but I dont see why Hieron is especially vulnerable. I am just looking at Hierons record though. I havent watched many fights.

[Svino]

Is Hieron really that chinny? Ellenberger is a beast on the feat that can KO anyone but I dont see why Hieron is especially vulnerable. I am just looking at Hierons record though. I havent watched many fights.

Let's break it down this way:

1) Ellenberger is considered by the odds to be about 75% likely to win the fight.
2) Most of Ellenberger's wins are by KO/TKO (17 of 27)
3) Most of Hieron's losses are by KO/TKO (3 of 5) (admittedly 1 was by cut, and some were long ago)

[Ludo]

.371u to win .5u on Simpson
.455u to win 1u on Justin Edwards
.556u to win 1u on Yves Edwards
1.55u to win 1u on Michael Johnson
1.9u to win 1u on Nunes

1.065u to win 1u Parlay on Dodson/Uyenoyama

[poopoo333]

Nice find there. I may take Ellenberger by ko (probably around 200) or Ellenberger in rd 1 which may be around 350.

Fri 10/5 1121 Ellenberger wins in round 1 +250 9:00PM 1122 Any other result -350 Fri 10/5 1133 Ellenberger wins by TKO/KO +180 9:00PM 1134 Any other result -260

[poopoo333]

Ellenberger to not sub Hieron is -1140. All in.