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NBA Guru:
4* St Louis TEAM TOTAL UNDER 3 -115 (Bookmaker)
1* StL/Atl UNDER 6.5 +115 (Pinnacle)
1* Atlanta -168 (Medlen) (Bookmaker)
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5Lines
Total Line for 10/05/2012 (Won last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - Baltimore Orioles : o9
Cost: -110
Run Line for 10/05/2012(Won last 2 games)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - Baltimore Orioles : +1.5
Cost: -135
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MLBPredictions
Kevin
5 STAR PICK = TEXAS RANGERS RL-1.5
1 UNIT = St Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves - UNDER 6.5 (+115)
Listed Pitchers: Lohse vs Medlen
(Note: I'm risking 1.00 unit to win 1.15 units)
The Cardinals enter the Wild Card game as the road team with their 88-74 record overall, while the Braves get to host the game as they finished the season with a solid 94-68 record. The Cardinals were 38-43 on the road, while the Braves were 48-33 at home this year. Take note that the Cardinals enter Friday's game after scoring just 6 runs in their 3 game series against Cincinnati at home. The UNDER is 3-0 in their last 3 and 6-3 in their last 9 games. The Braves dropped 2 of 3 in Pittsburgh as they had the Wild Card spot locked up, but they did manage just 6 runs over those 3 games and haven't been scoring many runs over their last 25 games or so. The UNDER is 5-1 in their last 6 games overall. St Louis sends Kyle Lohse to the mound who is a stellar 16-3 on the year with a 2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and .239 opponents batting average. Kris Medlen will get the start for Atlanta after going 10-1 with a microscopic 1.57 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and .208 opponents batting average. Atlanta is 25-1 in Medlen's last 26 starts overall. Note that the UNDER is 15-6 in Lohse's last 21 starts overall and the UNDER is 6-2 in the Cardinals last 8 road games. The UNDER is 41-17-2 in the Braves last 60 games overall, and 23-5-1 in their last 29 home games. The UNDER is also 6-2-1 in Medlen's last 9 starts overall, and 5-1-1 in his last 7 home starts. This is a low total, but again this is the postseason and with it being a one game elimination the managers are going to have a tight leash on both starters. Both pitchers have held opponents to under a .240 batting average over the season, and they are two of the top NL starting pitchers. Neither team is really hot with the bats lately and I expect runs to be hard to come by. Take the UNDER.
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JEFF SCOTT SPORTS
TOP PLAY
3 UNIT PLAY
Texas/ Baltimore Under 9: Joe Saunders has pitched very well since joining the the Orioles, posting a 2.75 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in his last 6 starts for them. On the road he has a 1.77 ERA in 4 starts as an Oriole and his road starts have averaged a mere 4.33 rpg. He does have a 6.43 ERA in his career vs Texas but has faced them just once in last 3 years and in that game he allowed just 1 ER in 7 innings of work. Yu Darvish gets the call for the Rangers tonight and he has the advantage of the Orioles having never seen him. He has also been pitching well, allowing 3 ER's or less in each of his last 8 starts, while in his last 4 starts he has a 1.51 ERA in his last 4 starts. This is just a 1 game playoff and that may have both teams offenses a bit tight. I feel the pitchers have the advantage here and that will keep the scoring down.
OTHER PLAY
2 UNIT PLAY
St Louis/ Atlanta Over 6.5
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JEFF SCOTT SPORTS
3 UNIT PLAYS
Pittsburgh/ Syracuse Under 58: Wow. I really don't see nearly 60 points in this game. This is the Big East for crying out loud. Yes the Cuse use the no huddle offense but in their last 2 weeks they have really struggling, putting up just 28 points in the game vs FCS foe Stony Brook and then in their next game vs Minnesota they could muster just 10 points. The Defense for the Panthers is coming around as they have allowed just 27 points in their last 2 games and with teh extra prep time will find a way to keep this Cuse no-huddle attack under wraps. Pittsburgh is not a take chances kind of offense and they will not look to get into a shootout in this one. The Panthers do run the ball (40 per game) more than they throw it (30 per game) and that kind of ball control will help them eat clock and keep the Syracuse offense off the field. They will also be facing a Syracuse defense that has allowed just 17 ppg in their last 2 games. This game should be a hard fought typical Big East game and not a Big 12 shootout and that should keep the game in the 40's and not the 50's.
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Christian Alexander's Pick Pack
NCAA Football Friday Picks
Member Plays
Matchup: Utah State at BYU
Time: 10:15 PM EDT (Fri)
Play: BYU (-7 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: October 2, 2012 @ 12:45:26 PM EDT
While the BYU offense has struggled at times they were able to build quite a bit of confidence and momentum last week against a weaker Hawaii defense putting up 540 yards of offense, 396 of them on the ground. While I don’t see BYU putting up those same numbers again this week I think their balanced attack, around 200 yards a game both rushing and passing will be enough to put some points on the board against an average Utah State defense. And it won’t take many points because the Aggies offense will struggle mightily against a BYU team that quietly boasts one of the best defenses in the country allowing only 10 points a game. I look for a lower scoring game all the way around but look for the BYU offense to be more productive than the Aggies and put a double digit win at home.
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Marc Lawrence (LTS):
3* Giants (+110) series vs. Reds
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OC Dooley:
“2 UNIT” NATIONAL LEAGUE WILDCARD TOTAL (Cardinals at Braves OVER 6’ in a 5:07 eastern start televised on TBS------Lohse versus Medlen): It is easy to see why the oddmakers have cast such a low total for this late afternoon “one and done” Wildcard postseason affair as we have a battle between staff aces. Due to injuries that have derailed the combination of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, the role of staff ace in St. Louis this campaign fell on the shoulders of Kyle Lohse who for the most part lived up to his lofty billing. But one of the few true “clunkers” that Lohse had this campaign just happened to occur IN Atlanta where he was the wrong end of a very high scoring 10-7 slugfest. I am fully aware that the Braves are going with the hottest pitcher in baseball who since the All-Star Break has a sub-ONE ERA, but the fact of the matter is that Kris Medlen has never been asked to perform with this type of pressure. To put this in proper perspective neither Medlen or Lohse has been a “true” number-one staff ace for any significant period of time. My research indicates that for the entire regular season Atlanta was 20-9 OVER the total when facing an excellent National League starting pitcher who had an ERA of below the three-mark. To add icing to the cake this season when facing a National League starter with a 2.70 ERA or better, St. Louis went 12-4 OVER the number
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GoodFella
MLB ML - Friday, Oct 5 2012 5:07PM
ML 902 ATL (-166) vs 901 STL single-dime bet
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Bryan Leonard MLB Total Fri, 10/05/12 - 8:37 PM
double-dime bet 904 TEX / 903 BAL UNDER 9
Analysis: Baltimore @ Texas
Joe Saunders takes the mound for the Orioles against a Rangers offense that spent the better part of September posting numbers well below their season averages. In September/October, the Rangers batted just .251 with a season-low .305 OBP. The biggest key for Saunders in this start is that he doesn't walk people. In 174.2 innings of work, Saunders has issued just 39 walks. After Saunders was rocked in his first start with the Orioles, he posted a 2.75 ERA in the other six starts, a span of 39.1 innings.
Yu Darvish will head to the hill for the Rangers, with some strong numbers on his side. In his first start against a team, Darvish is 10-3 with a 3.12 ERA. In late August, the Rangers decided to leave Darvish alone and allow him to pitch his game instead of trying to change what worked for him. He responded in September with a 2.21 ERA in five starts, after posting a 5.74 ERA in July and a 5.29 ERA in August. With Darvish able to dictate things for himself, he has been far more comfortable. The moment shouldn't catch up with Darvish, who pitched in several big games in Japan and in international competition.
Both teams should play this game pretty close to the vest and the pitchers will be focused on their games. The Rangers also have to try and overcome their epic collapse that cost them the AL West crown, while the Orioles, who hoped to be hosting their first playoff game in 15 years had to head to Texas to try and keep their postseason dream alive.
PLAY: BAL/TEX UNDER
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BOB BALFE
St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves -165, 6.5
10/05/2012 5:00 PM
SELECTION: ATLANTA BRAVES -165
Medlen/Lohse
Who the heck is Kris Medlen? That will be the reaction from most baseball fans watching the playoffs tonight. This guy is 9-0 in all of his starts this year and its not because of run support. He is sporting a ERA under 1.00 when he starts. That is just amazing. I think he will show a little nerves tonight, but I like the fact the Braves dominate against right handing pitching while the Cardinals broke even this year. The Braves are a tough team to beat at home and the Cardinals actually had a losing away record this year. Look for game one to go to Atlanta. I don't usually play prices this high, but its playoff time and we have no other choice. Take the Braves.
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ANDRE GOMES
MLB - 901 St Louis Cardinals @ 902 Atlanta Braves
(Starting Pitchers: K. Lohse vs K. Medlen)
Atlanta will of course use Medlen in today's wild card game and I expect the Cardinals' batters to struggle today. Medlen generally uses three kind of pitches: fastball, curveball and changeup, with his secret being the fact that his release point is the same for the three pitches, something that really fools the opposing batters. According to fangraphs.com, Medlen is a top 5 pitcher in all these three pitches, while St Louis is #6 against fastballs, #4 against curveballs and #16 against changeups (Medlen's best pitch). Over the last 30 days, the Cardinals are just #21 against fastballs, #7 against curveballs and #26 against changeups, therefore looking at Medlen's amazing form, I can't really expect St Louis (whose roster has just 33 AB's against him) to be the team who is finally able to make Medlen struggle, after a dozen of amazing outings. If we add to this, an excellent bullpen with Martinez, O'Flaherty and Avilan plus the closer Kimbrel (1.01 ERA, 0.78 FIP and 0.88 xFIP), I don't see how the Cardinals will be able to have any kind of decent offense today against the current best pitcher in the baseball plus a bullpen who is #2 in FIP with 3.21 and #1 in xFIP with 3.32 this season, while having had even better numbers in September.
So, it will be all up to Lohse to have a very good outing today to compensate St Louis' lack of hitting today. He had "just" a solid September/October with 3.89 ERA, but his advanced numbers (3.39 FIP, 3.34 xFIP) were quite good and better than his ERA. He had some issues against Washington twice, but that isn't expected to happen today against an Atlanta offense that combined a .635 OPS over the last 30 days. Lohse throws mostly fastballs (53%), sliders (23.4%) and changeups (19.2%), with the Braves being just #28 in hitting against fastballs, #25 against sliders and #5 against changeups in September. With the full season numbers not being much better, I don't see Atlanta putting Lohse in big trouble today. I know Lohse struggled in a start against Atlanta earlier on the season, but he didn't have his usual good control on his pitches (6 GB and 10 FB, including 2 HR allowed) and ended up struggled against a Braves offense that was in much better form back then than they are right now.
Even though I believe Atlanta will eventually win this game due to a brilliant pitching from Medlen plus the bullpen, I also expect Lohse to have a very good outing in here, turning this game into a very low scoring game. Therefore, even considering the low totals line, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 901/902 Under 7 (w/ K. Lohse & K. Medlen) @ -125 / 1.80
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Al DeMarco - GM
Friday's Play
10 dime run line release on TExas and Yu Darvish at home agaisnt Baltimore and Joe Saunders. Obviously specify both pitchers. The Rangers are +100 as of 11 AM Pacific.
It's been a lousy - make that AWFUL - two weeks, but it's not the first time in my life I've been crushed nor will it be the last. And the past will not affect how I play tonight or this weekend because, bottom line, the breaks always even out over the long run and will ultimately go in my favor.
Back to baseball tonight for winner # 19 of 27 on the Rangers-Orioles wildcard game.
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Sean Michaels
Friday's Play
50 Dime Play on Utah State as the road dog against BYU. As I release this play at 11:20 AM here in Vegas on Friday morning, the visiting Aggies are +6 1/2, although you can find them at +7 at some books as well.
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jack jones
20*utah st.+7
15 card's
15* orioles
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Seabass
100 Utah St.
50 OVER Rangers in baseball
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Marco D'Angelo | MLB Total - Friday, Oct 5 2012 8:37PM
903 BAL / 904 TEX UNDER 9 Hilton double-dime bet
Analysis: PLAY: TEXAS/BALTIMORE UNDER 9
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
The Texas Rangers have to be feeling the wait of the world on them right now after their colossal collapse last week. Texas basically was in 1st place the entire season right up to the final day. With a loss today the Rangers can go from back to back World Seri ‰es games to one and done. With that said I believe this game will be played more like a National League game where both will try to manufacture runs. So what I mean is instead of going for the big inning they will be more inclined to bunt a runner and give up a out to get a runner in scoring position. Both teams will be tight playing more trying not to lose rather than playing to win. That style will help our bet on the Under. Also both pitchers are in good form right now as Yu Darvish has had 8 straight starts where he has given up 3 runs or less. Baltimore starter Joe Saunders has had 6 straight starts with 3 runs or less. Another factor I like for the under is the fact that this will be the first time Baltimore has faced Darvish. The pitcher always has the advantage over the hitter the first time around the league. Darvish may be pitching in his first playoff game in Major League Baseball but he already has Playoff experience as he pitched in the Playoffs in Japan. In fact he pitched in the playoffs in 5 of the 6 seasons he was there and had an 8-2 record and a ERA of 1.38. Look for a pitcher's duel here as I see 7 or less runs being scored.
TAKE TEXAS/BALTIMORE UNDER 9
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