NFL Week 5 Leans/Picks

[Frank Benjamin]

Here is my leans and write-ups for this week. This is an early version that will be posted on my blog around 9:00 am (EST) on my blog at http://us.oddsonbetting.net.


I will post my final lines before kickoff after I official place my bets.


Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins


While it is true that I didn’t put much stock into the Ravens this year, I kind of like them getting 3-points on the road this week. One of the main reasons for this line is the poor performance of Joe Flacco last week in Buffalo, where I had the Bills as home dogs.


But I see somewhat of a bounce back game here for the Ravens. The Ravens aren’t known as a running team, but it is that one-dimensional game that got them into trouble last week with Flacco getting picked off five times. The Dolphins are surrendering 4.2 ypc to opposing rushers and I could see the Ravens allowing Ray Rice to do some damage against a vulnerable rushing defense.


It is also true that I don’t still consider Flacco an elite quarterback. But one thing he has going for him is that he has a short memory. I don’t expect last game to affect this week’s performance in anyway. The Dolphins pass defense sees the same number attempts as the Flacco averages but allows over 40 more yards per game than his 253.5 ypg average.


When I turn my attention to the Dolphins offense, I don’t really know what to expect. I have to give the Ravens run defense the slight edge. If there is an edge for the Dolphins it is in the passing game, but that is also slight. But the downfall of the Dolphins passing game is the number of sacks they give up.


Lean: Ravens +3


Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams


What I am saying here, my buddy Lou (@Rainmaker512 on Twitter) thinks I am “nutz.”
My lean is with the Jags and the over.


I understand that the Jaguars have three touchdowns all season, but this St. Louis team isn’t that good of a team – especially on defense.


First, the Rams are allowing running backs to march down the field at an average of 4.6 ypc. That is sweet music to Maurice Jones-Drew’s ears who only has 154 yards, one touchdown and is averaging a paltry 2.4 ypc season.


The Rams passing defense isn’t much better giving up an 70% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. This is the perfect game for standout wide receiver Justin Blackmon to return to the Jaguars line-up following his suspension.


The same things I say about the Rams’ defense can be said about the Jaguars defense. Their run defense is surrendering over 5 ypc. If they allow Daryl Richardson to run the ball a few times, the Jags defense might help increase his average carry from 2.7 yards.


Like many teams nowadays in the NFL, the Rams are a pass first team. They average over 40 attempts a game. When I look at the passing match-up, I can see Sam Bradford passing for well over his 254.5 ypg average.


I first liked this game because I just don’t think the Rams should be laying double-digits to anyone. But the more I looked at this game, the over started looking better and better to me. Again, I know that the Jags have only three touchdowns this season, but this is a game between a horrible team and a bad team. I have to listen to my numbers, so I am taking the points and going with the over.


Lean: Jaguars +11.5 and Over 41


New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals


This line opened with the Patriots as one-point road dogs, but has since been bet to Patriots -1, though I saw it at a pick at BetOnline yesterday.


My capping gives the nod to the Patriots in all most all match-ups but their rushing defense versus the Bengals rushing attack, where I have it scored pretty even.


I usually give a lot more weight to the passing game and one thing that jumps out at me is the Patriots defense only allowing 54.8 passes to be completed.


Another stat that jumps out to me is the turnover differential. The Patriots are a +6 compared to the Bengals’ -2.


My Lean: Patriots at a pick to -1


Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers


This game intrigues me as the Packer are 1-2 and the Lions are 3-1. I was impressed with their win last week against Chicago Bears and I am still not sure what team the Green Bay Packers are this year.


When looking at my numbers, I can see Stafford passing for well over 300 yards. Considering the Lions are averaging 309 ypg passing and the Packers defense is allowing an average of 311, that isn’t a far stretch. Another key stat to me is that the Green Bay defense is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.2% of their passes.


When you look at the match-up between the Packers offense versus the Lions defense, I give the edge to the Lions passing defense. If the Lions can keep Aaron Rodgers around their 60.6% completion percentage, the Packers signal caller could be well below his average of 326.7 passing yards per game.


Looking at this game, I can see both Reggie Bush and Eddie Lacy having their usual games as both match-ups of the rushing offenses and defense are about equal.


My Lean: Lions +7

[Mr. IWS]

Good info man, Im leaning cincy's way myself, but I agree on all the others.

[Frank Benjamin]

Good luck, except on Cinci, lol.

Final plays:
Bal +3
Jax +11.5
Jax Over 41
NE -1


Detroit is a no play with Calvin out.