Mixed Martial Analyst Prelimary card predictions


 Joseph Duffy def. James Vick

Walt Harris def. Mark Godbeer

Ion Cutelaba def. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Randy Brown def. Mickey Gall

Curtis Blaydes def. Aleksei Oleinik

Ovince Saint Preux def. Corey Anderson

Ricardo Ramos def. Aiemann Zahabi



Props worth looking at:

Michael Bisping – inside the distance: +280 (0.5 unit)

Pulo Costa – inside the distance: -155 (1.5 units)


Straight plays:

Michael Bisping -105 (1 unit)


Playable parlay pieces (my most confident favorites):

Paulo Costa -255
Walt Harris -400


Fights to avoid (live dogs, high intangibles, etc.):

Randy Brown vs. Mickey Gall
Stephen Thompson vs. Jorge Masvidal
Joseph Duffy vs. James Vick
Ricardo Ramos vs. Aiemann Zahabi



DraftKings recommendations

Paulo Costa: $8,900
Walt Harris: $8,800
Aiemann Zahabi: $8,700
Cody Garbrandt: $8,300
Machael Bisping: $8,100
Rose Namajunas: $7,000

Roster total: $49,800


Summary:

My fantasy MMA recommendations are officially back, which means that I will be sharing a DraftKings lineup for each UFC fight card, briefly expanding on the potential value of my picks.

Starting from the top, we have Paulo Costa, who comes in with a price tag of $8,900 and an APPG (average points per game) of 101.3. As one of the recommended parlay pieces, Costa is one of my most confident picks on the card for the reasons stated in the breakdown above. Costa will likely be in a lot of lineups, but he looks to be money in what is a potential mismatch of size and current standing.

Second up on the roster is Walt Harris, who comes in at a price of $8,800 and an APPG of 33.6. Despite being fresh off a last-minute loss to Fabricio Werdum, I like Harris – in what was his original matchup – to come up big here. Mark Godbeer is a hard-hitting fighter and gem of a human being, but I see Harris’ speed and southpaw stylings producing a high-scoring finish.

The next roster selection involves a fighter from my avoid list as I have Aiemann Zahabi. Despite officially siding with Ricardo Ramos, this is a close fight no matter how you cut it.

Ramos may be the more volatile finisher, but Zahabi is the more process-driven fighter, who also has a knack for scoring knockdowns and takedowns. And for the price of $8,700 (65 APPG), he will likely be an unpopular choice that can score you some surprising points.

Next up on the docket is Cody Garbrandt, who comes in with a price tag of $8,300 and an APPG of 100.3.

As stated in the breakdown above, I believe that Garbrandt has a higher propensity to find the finish over Dillashaw, whose aggressive shifting style tends to open him up for damage in both victory and defeat. Couple that with the fact that Garbrandt has dropped or stopped all of his career opponents, and I suspect that the champion could score you some serious points over a five-round affair.

In my next roster selection, I elected to go with another title fight participant in Michael Bisping.

One of my more confident picks of the card, I feel that Bisping, for the reasons stated in the breakdown above, is the livelier threat who has more going his way on paper. For me, this seems like another mismatch of size and current standing, as I see Bisping getting a stoppage to earn his price tag of $8,100.

Lastly, I have Rose Namajunas, who comes in at the low price of $7,000 (85 APPG). Even though I officially picked Jedrzejczyk to win, the betting line here feels off and inflated.

Fortunately for DraftKings players, that makes Namajunas – a live underdog and participant in a five-round fight – the lowest priced fighter on the entire roster. Jedrzejczyk’s pace and pressure will likely make the difference in this matchup, but the champion has been sat down by straight punches or taken down in her last few fights. Even if Namajunas comes up short on the scorecards, she will likely rack up more points than any other loser on the roster and may be worth a shot.