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4-Unit Play. #523. Take Under 136 Ohio State vs. Michigan (Monday @ 6:30pm est)
We roll with the Under here in what should be a strong defensive battle between these two rivals. Sure, the total seems low but take a closer look and you will see that both of these teams have very good defensive skills and with Ohio State putting up more than 80 points in their last game which is a rarity and Holtmann facing Michigan for the first time as the new coach, he will hone in on the defenisve pressure. Plus, Michigan has been questionable with scoring on the road but their defense usually carries the day for them and they have been put as a small underdog in this game for good reason as they likey slow down the pace of this game in a big way as it goes under the posted total this evening.
3-Unit Play. #534. Take Florida -10 over Florida State (Monday @ 9pm est)
Florida is simply the much better team over FSU. Florida is the 10th best offensive team in the nation and a top 25 defense and they face a FSU team who they don't need any more motivation against. Florida comes off a 3 point loss to Duke, is angry, has already beaten Gonzaga this year and is the 2nd best turnover team in the nation. FSU is outside the top 110 in turnover and outside the top 130 in 3 point shooting and that will be key here as if they get down, they can get down big and that will work against them in a hurry. Florida likely gets it done in a big way today.
3-Unit Play. #541. Take Under 138 CS Sacramento vs. St. Mary's CA (Monday @ 10pm est)
St. Mary's has a very underrated defense and they will likely play very well today against Sacramento for a variety of reasons including for recruiting purposes in the area to establish dominance. Plus, Sacramento State has one of the worst offenses in the country, and typically when St. Mary's plays weaker teams they go to the under as they start slowing down the pace in the end of the game. A similar example is against Cal State Fullerton earlier this year when the final score was 76-57 at home and that likely takes place here as well as it is a good public fade too.
New York will be without their two best players based on my player ratings. Obviously, not having Kristaps Porzingis is a major blow to the Knicks but Tim Hardaway Jr. was an unheralded star off the bench for Atlanta last season and I consider him to be the 2nd most important player to New York’s success. New York just lost at home to a below average Orlando squad yesterday by 5 points despite the Magic making just 6 of 28 (21.3%) 3-point shots, which is randomly bad. I favor Indiana by 14 points with current rotations, taking into account that the Knicks are unrested and the Pacers have had two days off, and Indiana has been relatively better against bad teams this season (3-0 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more while winning those games by an average margin of 16 points while being favored by an average of only 4.5 points in those games) and the Knicks are a bad team without Porzingis and Hardaway. Indiana also lost at New York earlier in the season so they’re not going to feel sorry for the Knicks being without their superstar tonight. I’ll take Indiana in a 1-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less.
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