Steve Merril
NFL Playoffs
(3% play) CAROLINA +7 or more (at New Orleans) - 4:30 pm ET (FOX) #107
-Carolina lost both regular season meetings against New Orleans, but expect a close game here
-offense is averaging 22.7 points per game vs. defenses that only allow 21.4 points per game
-Panthers' defense only allows 19.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play on the road this season
-New Orleans lost 31-24 last week, and with 2 wins over Carolina already, expect tight play
-offense has to throw the ball to be successful, but Carolina gives up just 6.5 yppa; bad matchup
-Saints' defense is worse at home where they give up 22.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play
Play PANTHERS (+7 or more) as a 3% play. Downgrade to 2% opinion at +6.5 or less.
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(additional opinion)
(1% opinion) JACKSONVILLE -8 (vs. Buffalo) - 1:00 pm ET (CBS) #106
-Buffalo is in a bad scheduling spot; it will be their 3rd straight road game off a must win effort
-offense is only averaging 17.6 points per game on 4.8 yards per play on the road this season
-Bills' defense gives up 24.6 points per game on the road vs. offenses that only average 21.4 ppg
-Jacksonville returns home off back-to-back road losses; good spot for a big bounce back effort
-offense is averaging 25.9 points per game at home vs. defenses that only give up 22.7 ppg
-Jaguars' defense is excellent; allows just 16.7 points per game on 4.9 yards per play this season
NFL Playoffs
(3% play) CAROLINA +7 or more (at New Orleans) - 4:30 pm ET (FOX) #107
-Carolina lost both regular season meetings against New Orleans, but expect a close game here
-offense is averaging 22.7 points per game vs. defenses that only allow 21.4 points per game
-Panthers' defense only allows 19.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play on the road this season
-New Orleans lost 31-24 last week, and with 2 wins over Carolina already, expect tight play
-offense has to throw the ball to be successful, but Carolina gives up just 6.5 yppa; bad matchup
-Saints' defense is worse at home where they give up 22.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play
Play PANTHERS (+7 or more) as a 3% play. Downgrade to 2% opinion at +6.5 or less.
-------------------
(additional opinion)
(1% opinion) JACKSONVILLE -8 (vs. Buffalo) - 1:00 pm ET (CBS) #106
-Buffalo is in a bad scheduling spot; it will be their 3rd straight road game off a must win effort
-offense is only averaging 17.6 points per game on 4.8 yards per play on the road this season
-Bills' defense gives up 24.6 points per game on the road vs. offenses that only average 21.4 ppg
-Jacksonville returns home off back-to-back road losses; good spot for a big bounce back effort
-offense is averaging 25.9 points per game at home vs. defenses that only give up 22.7 ppg
-Jaguars' defense is excellent; allows just 16.7 points per game on 4.9 yards per play this season
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