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Final 4 Betting Info
Playoff Betting Stats ...
Favorites: 1-7 ATS
Home Teams: 2-6 ATS
Home Favorites: 1-6 ATS
Home Underdogs: 1-0 ATS
Over/Under: 4-4 Over/Under
Outdoors: 2-4 Over/Under
Indoors: 2-0
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Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker ...
“We didn’t even want to tempt the bettors with anything closer to a touchdown, and it’s a good thing, because as expected, all of the early money is on New England"
“This spread is probably going to creep north as the week goes on, but I’d be shocked if it went off at double digits. I’m certainly not expecting Jacksonville to win with Blake Bortles at quarterback, but that defense could keep things interesting.”
After opening the Pats -8, Bookmaker.eu was already up to 9 by late Sunday night.
“Philly in the underdog role once again, but this go-round, they are deserving of the tag"
“We saw a lot of moneyline money on that side against Atlanta, and will likely get the same action here. Minnesota was fortunate to get a win in the divisional round, but it was by far the better team"
“Two fantastic defenses on display which should make for an exciting game for the football purists.”
Minnesota drew the early action Sunday night at Bookmaker, bumping the line up to 3.5.
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Bet Labs ...
Super Bowl odds per latest simulation:
Vikings 38.11%
Patriots 35.08%
Jaguars 16.83%
Eagles 9.98%
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Tom Brady has as many Super Bowl wins (5) as the other three starting QB have playoff starts (5)
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Patriots 18-3 at home in playoffs since 2000
3 QBs that beat them: Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco (twice)
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Bet Labs Sports ...
NFC Championship
Vikings -3.5 at Eagles
Total 38
Bets evenly split but 60% of spread dollars on Minnesota
AFC Championship
Patriots -9.5 vs. Jaguars
Total 46.5
63% of spread tickets and 74% of dollars on New England
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The "great" Jags defense will be a big storyline all week, but don't be fooled.
They've allowed 32 points per game in their last four road games.
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The Patriots defense has allowed just 14 points per game over their last 13 games.
Over their last six home games, they've allowed just 12.16 points per game.
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The Patriots are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games. They are the only team in the last 5 years to cover the spread 10 times in an 11 game span during the same season.
In the last 10 years, two other teams did it ... 2011 Saints / 2007 Chargers.
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NFL Playoffs
< 50% Bets ... 5-3 ATS
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Sports Insights ...
Early spread tickets
63% on Patriots (-9)
37% on Jaguars (+9)
52% on Vikings (-3.5)
48% on Eagles (+3.5)
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Conference Championship game #'s
Home team won the last 8 straight up
Home team 7-1 ATS
Faves 6-2 ATS
Lone dog upset was Broncos +3 in 20-18 win over Pats in 2016
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Underdogs are a best-ever 7-1 ATS in the NFL playoffs so far.
Previous best to this point ... 6-2 ATS in 2006 and 5-1 ATS in 1984 (only 2 wild card games then).
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Jags ... 0-7 SU in Foxborough
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Vikings -3.5 at Eagles
Road teams have been favored in conference title games 14 times ... have gone 8-6 SU
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Pats -9 vs Jags
This is the first time we've seen a spread of 9 or higher in conference champ game since Pats were -14 vs. Chargers Jan. 20, 2008.
Patriots won 21-12
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We've seen 13 spreads of 9 or higher in NFL conference champ games since 1984.
Favorites are 12-1 SU / 7-6 ATS / 6-7 O/U
Faves of exactly 9 (like the Pats vs Jags) are 3-0 SU & ATS.
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16 NFL conf. champ games have had totals of 38 or lower since 1984 (before Vikes-Eagles this week)
O/U is 9-7
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Top Bet ...
Early Betting Trends
73% of cash on Patriots -9.5
54% on Vikings -3.5
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CG Technology ...
Lookahead Super Bowl lines
Vikings vs. Patriots (-3, 48)
Eagles vs. Patriots (-7, 45)
Vikings (-4.5, 40) vs. Jaguars
Eagles vs. Jaguars (-1, 38)
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