Final 4 Betting Info

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  • New York Knight
    IWS Member
    • Aug 2017
    • 4965

    #16
    Pats -9 vs Jags


    This is the first time we've seen a spread of 9 or higher in conference champ game since Pats were -14 vs. Chargers Jan. 20, 2008.

    Patriots won 21-12

    Comment

    • New York Knight
      IWS Member
      • Aug 2017
      • 4965

      #17
      We've seen 13 spreads of 9 or higher in NFL conference champ games since 1984.

      Favorites are 12-1 SU / 7-6 ATS / 6-7 O/U

      Faves of exactly 9 (like the Pats vs Jags) are 3-0 SU & ATS.

      Comment

      • New York Knight
        IWS Member
        • Aug 2017
        • 4965

        #18
        16 NFL conf. champ games have had totals of 38 or lower since 1984 (before Vikes-Eagles this week)

        O/U is 9-7

        Comment

        • New York Knight
          IWS Member
          • Aug 2017
          • 4965

          #19
          Top Bet‏ ...

          Early Betting Trends


          73% of cash on Patriots -9.5

          54% on Vikings -3.5

          Comment

          • New York Knight
            IWS Member
            • Aug 2017
            • 4965

            #20
            CG Technology ...


            Lookahead Super Bowl lines


            Vikings vs. Patriots (-3, 48)

            Eagles vs. Patriots (-7, 45)

            Vikings (-4.5, 40) vs. Jaguars

            Eagles vs. Jaguars (-1, 38)

            Comment

            • New York Knight
              IWS Member
              • Aug 2017
              • 4965

              #21
              From 107 William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada and their mobile betting app


              Public is crushing the Vikings spread (89%) and Patriots spread (77%)

              Comment

              • New York Knight
                IWS Member
                • Aug 2017
                • 4965

                #22
                This is the first time since the 1970 merger that all 4 teams in the conference championship games had a Top 5 scoring defense that season


                Vikings: 15.8 PPG allowed (1st)
                Jaguars: 16.8 PPG allowed (2nd)
                Eagles: 18.4 PPG allowed (4th)
                Patriots: 18.5 PPG allowed (5th)

                Comment

                • New York Knight
                  IWS Member
                  • Aug 2017
                  • 4965

                  #23
                  Patriots ...


                  6-0 SU and ATS in last 6 home games with an avg win margin of 17.3 points

                  7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in last 7 home playoff games with an avg win margin of 18.3 points

                  7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in last 7 games vs Jaguars with an avg win margin of 17.43

                  Comment

                  • New York Knight
                    IWS Member
                    • Aug 2017
                    • 4965

                    #24
                    The Vikings had the NFL's #1 total defense this season

                    In their 4 games without Carson Wentz (including playoffs), the Eagles have averaged 277.5 total YPG ... which would have given them the NFL's worst total offense if applied over the full 2017 season

                    Comment

                    • New York Knight
                      IWS Member
                      • Aug 2017
                      • 4965

                      #25
                      Brady is a profitable bet in his career in the playoffs - but barely.

                      He's 18-16-1 ATS, so you'd be up $36.38 if you bet $100 on all of them.

                      Comment

                      • New York Knight
                        IWS Member
                        • Aug 2017
                        • 4965

                        #26
                        NFL Playoffs ... since 1978

                        Home Dogs

                        First 2 rounds of Playoffs ... 20-9-1 ATS

                        Conference Championship Round ... 6-8 ATS

                        Comment

                        • New York Knight
                          IWS Member
                          • Aug 2017
                          • 4965

                          #27
                          Since the AFC South was formed in 2002 the New England Patriots ...


                          24-2 SU home record vs teams in that division.

                          17-game home-winning streak vs teams in that division.

                          10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs teams in that division.

                          Comment

                          • New York Knight
                            IWS Member
                            • Aug 2017
                            • 4965

                            #28
                            Jags must sack Brady to cover against the Patriots


                            Sacking Brady

                            0-1 ... 90-43-2 ATS

                            2-3 ... 64-46-6 ATS

                            4+ ... 13-21-1 ATS


                            Patriots ATS Win %

                            Comment

                            • New York Knight
                              IWS Member
                              • Aug 2017
                              • 4965

                              #29
                              AFC Championship Total holding steady at 46.5 on Tuesday.

                              Jaguars highest total this season was 43, which easily went over in 44-33 loss at SF.

                              As of today, bettors backing the over.

                              Comment

                              • New York Knight
                                IWS Member
                                • Aug 2017
                                • 4965

                                #30
                                The playoffs are a showcase for NFL stars, yet overlooked players or aspects often decide which team advance.

                                Here are two X-factors for each team during conference championship weekend.



                                Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

                                Good Bortles or Bad Bortles ... The Jaguars are built on defense and their ability to run the ball. That's partially because QB Blake Bortles has been wildly inconsistent throughout the season. Including the playoffs, his touchdown-to-interception ratio is 18-to-3 in victories but 5-to-10 in defeat.


                                Jags DT Malik Jackson ... Against the Steelers on Sunday, Jacksonville’s pass rush generated some big plays but couldn't apply enough pressure to prevent Ben Roethlisberger from throwing five touchdowns. The key to disrupting Tom Brady and New England’s offense is to push the offensive line — especially the interior — into the pocket and disrupt Brady’s timing.


                                Been there, done that ... This is the seventh consecutive season the Patriots have reached the AFC Championship Game and the 12th time overall during the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. However the appearance will be just the Jags' third since their inaugural season in 1995. This is a stage that can intimidate young teams and force them into the type of pressure-laden mistakes New England is unlikely to commit.


                                Quick release ... Few passers get rid of the ball more quickly than Brady. When facing a Jacksonville defense that has elite speed and athleticism at each level, expect Brady to distribute the ball quickly in hopes his play makers can exploit gaps or maybe take advantage of inexperienced defenders overpursuing the play.




                                Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles


                                Vikings S Harrison Smith ... His ability to line up just about anywhere on the field presents a physical, game-changing presence. Smith is most comfortable near the line of scrimmage and could be a key figure in smothering TE Zach Ertz and Philadelphia’s running game.


                                Eagles LT Halapoulivaati Vaitai ... Filling in for injured Jason Peters, Vaitai has had an up-and-down stretch. His next matchup will come against star Vikings DE Everson Griffen, who collected 13 sacks in the regular season and one against the Saints in the divisional round. If Griffen can get to QB Nick Foles regularly, disaster could ensue.


                                Third downs ... Minnesota shredded New Orleans on ever-crucial third downs, going 10-17 (59%). Though the Vikings needed a miracle touchdown at the end to win, if their offense can stay on the field, Philadelphia’s defense could tire with a high volume of snaps.


                                Turnover margin ... The Eagles ranked fourth in the NFL in takeaway/giveaway differential (plus-11). But in the victory against Atlanta in the divisional round, Philadelphia gave up the ball twice, leading to all 10 of the Falcons' points. The Eagles might not be so lucky if they’re careless again.

                                Comment

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