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Saturday 12-8-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
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Navy Midshipmen vs. Army Black Knights Preview and Predictions 2018-12-08
NCAAF Predictions 5th December 2018 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 12/05/2018
It doesn't matter much that the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy will not change hands, or that Army is ranked 25th in the country and riding a seven-game winning streak, or that Navy is enduring its first losing season since 2011 - the Army-Navy game always stays in the moment. Saturday's 119th renewal, at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, should be no different with the usual pomp and circumstance, and the expected presence of President Donald Trump.
The Black Knights are ranked in the Top 25 for the first time since 1996 thanks mostly to a ground attack that produces 303 yards per game - second in the nation only to Georgia Tech's 334.9 - and an average time of possession of 39 minutes, 15 seconds that leads the country by a wide margin. The Midshipmen, who have lost 12 straight away from home, boast the No. 3 rushing game nationally at 288.5 yards but defensive struggles have sunk their season to lows not seen since a two-win campaign in 2002. Saturday's game will likely come down to who can stop the run and Army appears to have the edge, boasting the No. 12 rush defense at 106.5 yards compared to Navy's 89th-best unit (189.0). A victory by the Black Knights would give them back-to-back outright Commander-in-Chief's trophies for the first time in Academy history.
TV: 3 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Army -7
ABOUT NAVY (3-9): Part of the issue this season has been the revolving door at the quarterback position with senior Zach Abey, junior Malcolm Perry and senior Garret Lewis all seeing time under center, combining for 866 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions while competing 44.1 percent of their passes. Abey, who began the season at wide receiver after playing QB most of last season, is the goal-line specialist with 14 rushing touchdowns while Perry (1,035 yards, seven TDs) possesses breakaway speed as evidenced by his 68-yard TD run against Army last season. The Midshipmen are second nationally in fewest penalties (3.58) and penalty yardage (30 per game), marking the 10th time in 11 seasons they have finished first or second in the country in those categories.
ABOUT ARMY (9-2): Senior running back Darnell Woolfork (823 yards, 14 touchdowns) and junior quarterback Kelvin Hopkins Jr. (783 yards, 10 TDs) lead the dominant rushing attack behind an outstanding line. "We believe that our success on offense starts with us," senior center Bryce Holland told reporters. "It's extremely important for us to do our job and impose our will because if we don't do that, we're not setting our teammates up for success." Hopkins has also thrown for 895 yards with six TDs and three interceptions, adding another dimension to a team that passed for only 361 yards with two TDs and six interceptions last season.
EXTRA POINTS
1. The Midshipmen lead the series 60-51-7 but the Black Knights have won the last two meetings since dropping 14 straight.
2. Army paces the nation in third-down percentage (57.1) and is also an eye-popping 30-for-33 on fourth down - also No. 1 nationally - while Navy converts 39.2 percent on third down.
3. The teams had two common opponents this season: The Black Knights defeated Hawaii 28-21 and Air Force 17-14 while the Midshipmen lost 59-41 and 35-7, respectively.
PREDICTION: Army 24, Navy 14
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Aqueduct
12/08/18, AQU, Race 3, 1.18 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $62,000.
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLDFOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double
Best in race - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Top Horse Win Percent 28.57, $1 ROI 0.76, For Race Category MSW_MCLM Dirt
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer FLAGS
100.0000 5 Shelley Ann(b+) 8-1 Gutierrez R Jerkens James A. W
098.9192 2 Midnitesalright 5/2 Davis D Servis Jason FL
097.8090 8 Evan's Nice Now 8-1 Alvarado J Englehart Jeremiah C. J
097.4891 7 Cheatham Hill 10-1 Cancel E Servis Jason
096.8498 4 Flush 5-1 Maragh R McLaughlin Kiaran P.
096.6686 3 Fight On Lucy(b+) 6-1 Cohen D Kelly Patrick J. EC
095.0888 10 Sander's Empire 30-1 Silvera R Pringle Edmund S
094.9330 1 Princess Pinky 3-1 Reyes L R Nevin Michelle
094.1201 9 Bee'snbee's 15-1 Diaz. Jr. H R McBurney Patrick B.
092.9543 6 Semaya 30-1 Hernandez H Lalman Dennis S.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $12500 Class Rating: 67
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 1 OPENING FANTASY 9/5
# 6 PROVE A POINT 5/1
# 4 MAKEMELIKAFERARRI 5/1
OPENING FANTASY is the best bet in this race. Shows evidence of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 58 speed rating which is one of the top in this group. Had one of the best speed figs of this group of horses in this race in her last contest. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group lately. PROVE A POINT - Looks solid for the conditions of this outing today, showing solid figs in short races lately. Has been running admirably lately and will most likely be on or close to the lead early on.
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park
12/08/18, GP, Race 11, 4.50 ET
1 1/8M [Dirt] 1.46.04 STAKES. Purse $300,000.
$1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
Best in race - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Top Horse Win Percent 14.29, $1 ROI 0.36, For Race Category Non-Maiden Dirt
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer FLAGS
100.0000 4 El Salsero 20-1 Castro E Arroyo Jose M. JTE
099.7222 3 (F)Kukulkan (MEX) 3/5 Ortiz. Jr. I Gutierrez Fausto
098.8978 9 (F)Literario (MEX) 20-1 Franco M Davila Vicente W
098.1744 10 (F)Bukowski (VEN) 6-1 Jaramillo E Avila Juan Carlos
097.6999 1 (F)My Racing Mate (VEN) 15-1 Reyes L Cachazo Cesar
095.8907 2 (F)Dario Ruth (PAN) 20-1 Velazquez J R Mugaburu Miguel
094.9089 5 (F)Sol De Orion (PAN) 6-1 Lezcano J Estevez Mario
093.4951 7 (F)Kandinsky (MEX) 20-1 Castellano J Gutierrez Fausto
092.9544 6 (F)Senor Ben Hur (PAN) 10-1 Ortiz J L Estevez Mario
092.7192 8 (F)Apistos (VEN) 15-1 Saez L Parilli Fernando
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 5
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Daily Double $1 Pick Three Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager)
Maiden • 330 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $8,000 • Post: 7:52P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * FIRST BE GRACEFUL: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. FAITH AND DESTINY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. VOULEZ WAGON: Horse ha s a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. THE RISING SON: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. WALTERS CARTEL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1
FIRST BE GRACEFUL
8/5
5/1
3
FAITH AND DESTINY
4/1
7/1
2
VOULEZ WAGON
10/1
7/1
5
THE RISING SON
4/1
8/1
4
WALTERS CARTEL
3/1
9/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
1
FIRST BE GRACEFUL
1
8/5
Average
83
83
4.0
0.0
0.0
2
VOULEZ WAGON
2
10/1
Average
82
75
5.7
0.0
0.0
3
FAITH AND DESTINY
3
4/1
Slow/Trouble-prone
80
80
6.2
0.0
0.0
4
WALTERS CARTEL
4
3/1
Slow
78
76
6.1
0.0
0.0
5
THE RISING SON
5
4/1
Average
83
74
4.1
0.0
0.0
6
HOOKN UP N HANGNOUT
6
8/1
Slow/Trouble-prone
83
74
7.1
0.0
0.0
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #1 - Post: 12:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,100 Class Rating: 58
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#7 POSITIVE VIBES (ML=7/2)
POSITIVE VIBES - The jockey/trainer duet of Hisby and Shifflett has a strong return on investment together. Looking at today's class rating, this thoroughbred is up against an easier field than last time around the track at Churchill Downs.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 CALUMISS (ML=5/2), #8 MISS DURLYN (ML=3/1), #5 I YA SCREAM (ML=4/1),
CALUMISS - This chalk horse ran on November 14th and hasn't had a work since then. MISS DURLYN - This filly gave a less than rousing performance last time out. A closer like this one needs an early speed duel to set things up and she isn't likely to get one in this one. Could be tough for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put her on the questionable challengers list. I YA SCREAM - Just can't wager on this less than sharp equine. Didn't show me anything positive last race out or on September 26th. Finished fourth in her most recent race with a quite unimpressive speed figure. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #7 POSITIVE VIBES to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National
Penn National - Race 1
W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Claiming $16,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 93 • Purse: $20,800 • Post: 6:05P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 8 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. REPENTANT is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * REPENTANT: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. IREDEL L: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SILVER STARSHIP: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PAPADOPALOUS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equiba se Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
1
REPENTANT
5/2
3/1
2
IREDELL
5/2
6/1
4
SILVER STARSHIP
5/1
9/1
5
PAPADOPALOUS
9/2
9/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
1
REPENTANT
1
5/2
Front-runner
94
88
109.4
82.8
77.8
4
SILVER STARSHIP
4
5/1
Stalker
90
84
88.2
84.2
78.7
2
IREDELL
2
5/2
Stalker
101
85
77.0
83.2
79.7
5
PAPADOPALOUS
5
9/2
Trailer
96
85
73.4
84.2
77.2
3
WAITIN ON ONE
3
2/1
Alternator/Non-contender
99
90
79.2
72.2
63.7
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 61
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. OKLAHOMA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 6 BOLD LEGEND 15/1
# 7 BABY LYLLY 5/2
# 1 COUNTRY CLUB POOL 9/2
I've got to go with BOLD LEGEND and is a solid value bet given the line. Has run well when running a dirt sprint race. Eoff has her trained solidly to break swiftly out of the starting gate. BABY LYLLY - Ran a strong last race. Is hard not to look at based on speed figures which have been quite good - 55 avg - of late. COUNTRY CLUB POOL - This conditioner has done solidly lately with entries running at this distance and surface. Last time out, this filly ran against a tougher bunch.
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