Date Expert Rating Game Play Nov 17 Marco D'Angelo 5% [NFL] (465) Houston Texans at (466) Baltimore Ravens
Time: 1:00 PM ESTHouston Texans 4.5 (-110) Analysis: Note Bonus plays are:
4% Buffalo -7
3% JAX/INDY UNDER 43 see write ups below.
5% HOUSTON +4.5
The stock right now couldn’t be any higher than it currently is with Baltimore yet we saw this line drop from the Look ahead Lines why? Houston is coming off a bye week which came at the right time as Houston needed to get some of the walking wounded back. JJ Watt is done for the year but the week off lets them make adjustments for his absence and let some of the other banged up guys heal. Baltimore’s success has come with the running of Lamar Jackson but seeing DeShaun Watson in practice everyday is about as close as you will get to preparing for Lamar Jackson so Houston should be able to contain Jackson. Baltimore and Houston are almost dead even offensively as Baltimore is #3 while Houston is #4 at YPP. Defensively Baltimore is 20th allowing 5.9 YPP while Houston is 24th allowing 6.1 YPP. These two teams are a lot closer to each other than you think but in the public’s eyes this looks too easy at this number - Don’t fall for the Trap! Houston wins outright 30-24 as Marco's 5% NFL UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH.
4% BUFFALO -7
It’s Fitzmagic time in Miami 5 straight Covers 2 straight wins. Miami doesn’t even know how to tank correctly. The public will look at Miami with it’s 5 covers in a row and also see that they played Buffalo tough in Buffalo and say they are a live dog at home... But as Lee Corso would say not so fast my friends! Let’s go back to that first meeting in Buffalo as this is one of my favorite situations involving 2nd meetings between teams. Buffalo was coming off their bye week when these two met in Buffalo and was 5-1 on the season and rolling. The last thing you want as a team when you are rolling is to take a break as it disrupts your momentum and they were coming off that bye week only to play a winless team in Miami. Buffalo thought they just had to show up and they would win. We saw the exact same thing with the Saints last week against the struggling Falcons. But if Buffalo did take them for granted in that first meeting now they won’t especially coming off a loss. Miami has taken advantage of teams looking past them but that’s not the case in this rematch. I love taking a road favorite who won but didn’t cover in the first meeting at home. (This same angle would of had Baltimore last Week). Buffalo needs a win and they get it here as their defense shuts down this Miami offense. BUFFALO 31-20 as Marco's 4% NFL GAME OF THE WEEK.
3% JAX/INDY UNDER 43
Jacksonville gets Nick Foles back this week while the Colts get Jacoby Brissett back. The knee jerk reaction would be that we will see scoring with the star QB's back but the reality is Foles has to be somewhat rusty and Brissett won't have 100% mobility. Add in that this is a big divisional match up and division games generally are lower scoring sets us up for a solid under play. Finally Indy is 15-6 to the UNDER following a loss the last 3 seasons. My numbers project 38 or less points. TAKE JAX/INDY UNDER 43 as Marco's 3% NFL TOTAL BEST BET.
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Originally Posted by Davejr81
