Sunday 8/23/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Century Mile - Race #4 - Post: 6:45pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,700 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#2 STOCKWATCHER (ML=5/2)
#4 METRO DREAMER (ML=9/2)


STOCKWATCHER - The rest of the bunch may trail this horse all the way around the track. The jockey and handler combination have a lucrative return on investment when they work together. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. METRO DREAMER - I like to play this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a strong effort within the last month.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 MY SAMURAI WARRIOR (ML=3/2), #1 CAPITALISM (ML=5/1), #3 THE HYBRID (ML=8/1),

MY SAMURAI WARRIOR - Hasn't raced or had any drills since July 26th. Not much value on this morning-line choice. Could be tough for this racer to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put him on the questionable challengers list. CAPITALISM - 5/1 is too low of a reward to take on most any thoroughbred that has run poorly in back to back efforts. This gelding registered a speed figure in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event. THE HYBRID - Usually I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance races in order to back him. Could be tough for this thoroughbred to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the vulnerable competitors list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 STOCKWATCHER is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Del Mar

08/23/20, DMR, Race 3, 3.00 PT
08/23/20,DMR,3,6F [Dirt] 1:07:03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $55,000 (plus up to $16,500 CBOIF - California Bred Owner Fund). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs.
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

Rating	P#	Horse Name	M/L	Jockey	Trainer	Flags	WPC	ROI *
100.0000	4	Flat Out Joy	7/2	Van Dyke D	Ellis Ronald W.	SFEL	28.99	1.31/$1
098.9434	2	As Time Goes By	2-1	Cedillo A	Baffert Bob	TW	28.99	1.31/$1
096.5486	3	Acting Out	5-1	Gonzalez R	Sherman Art		28.99	1.31/$1
096.2739	5	La V.	8-1	Prat F	Powell Leonard	JC	28.99	1.31/$1
094.1885	1	England's Rose	10-1	Espinoza V	Shirreffs John A.		28.99	1.31/$1
094.0401	7	Classy Ruler	5/2	Smith M E	Shirreffs John A.		28.99	1.31/$1
093.7136	6	Tico Time	20-1	Diaz. Jr. J	Nunez Jesus		28.99	1.31/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 57.14, ROI 2.24/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga

08/23/20, SAR, Race 5, 3.33 ET
08/23/20,SAR,5,1 1/8M [Dirt] 1:46:03 ALLOWANCE. Purse $64,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $13,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners of a race other than Claiming or Starter at a mile or over Allowed 2 lbs.
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

Rating	P#	Horse Name	M/L	Jockey	Trainer	Flags	WPC	ROI *
100.0000	2	Unrelenting Force	5-1	Rosario J	Handal Raymond	F	32.97	1.40/$1
099.9711	7	Cold Hard Cash	5/2	Ortiz J L	Rice Linda	J	29.95	1.14/$1
097.9086	1	Quiet Out East	6-1	Saez L	Brown Bruce R.	S	32.97	1.40/$1
097.7239	6	Too Early	4-1	Lezcano J	Rice Linda	E	24.06	1.25/$1
096.8733	3	Dancers for Token	5-1	Alvarado J	Davis Robbie G.	W	24.06	1.25/$1
095.4068	4	High Command	12-1	Hernandez B	Breed. Jr. Ronald	L	32.97	1.40/$1
094.0038	5	Six Percent	3-1	Franco M	Jerkens James A.	C	24.06	1.25/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 28.00, ROI 1.74/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PITBULL BARKING SOCCER

Sun Aug 23, 2020

UEFA - Champions League- Bayern Munich +108 Paris Saint Germain (3:00 PM)
Scotland - Premier League- St Johnstone vs. Hibernian UNDER 2.5 -129 (11:30 AM)
Belgium - First Division A- Club Brugge vs. KFCO Beerschot-Wilrijk OVER 2.5 -168 (10:00 AM)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

MLB Play * Saratoga Pick 8/23

Sun Aug 23, 2020

Bad one yesterday, hit with Solecki in UFC, the Twins and Foliage came in second in the first at Saratoga. Lost my other picks and the Saint Preux fight got cancelled. Here's a couple for Sunday.

100* Dbacks -120

Saratoga Race 8
#6 Mean Mary $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 6-3-5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 8/23/20

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August 23, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Sunday, August 23, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 1:10 ET. Grade: B
Single: 5-Uptown Flirt

Forecast: There’s not much depth to the Sunday opener, a six-runner maiden juvenile fillies two-turn turf affair. The first-timers aren’t impressive on paper or on video, so let’s stick with the one with a race over the course, Uptown Flirt. A decent third in her debut, the daughter of Speightster has every right to build on that performance, and while we doubt she’s any kind of world beater she probably won’t have to be. At 5/2 on the morning line we’ll use her in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post 1:44 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Wicksters Dream; 7-Scoring

Forecast: Wicksters Dream has improved his speed figures in each of his four career starts, most recently in a sharp win over this track and distance vs. restricted (nw-2) $40,000 foes last month in his first start since last September. At first glance it appeared that trainer J. Englehart made a timely claim, but after four weeks off and just one work in the interim the sophomore colt returns in an open $32,000 seller restricted to 3-year-olds, and that’s not the kind of move you make if you’re happy with the merchandise. Clearly, the son of New Year’s Day wins again if he duplicate’s that last race, but can anybody really be sure that he will? Scoring is worth using as protection in rolling exotic play. Drawn comfortably outside, the Justin Philip gelding should draft into an ideal pace-stalking trip and have his chance, and while he won’t beat Wicksters Dream if that one shows up with his “A” game, he could be dangerous if the favorite fails to fire.
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RACE 3: Post 2:20 ET. Grade: X
Use: 5-Fifth Risk; 6-Jade Empress

Forecast: With two late scratches, race has been reduced to just four starters. Jade Empress is a quick-actioned, talented, and speedy daughter of Shanghai Bobby making her debut in a fairly decent maiden special weight sprint for juvenile fillies. Dawn nicely outside, the W. Mott-trained filly impressed in her last two recorded drills, most notably a bullet move (4f, :47b, fastest of 26) 10 days ago while in company and going easily throughout (view workout). At 4-1 on the morning line, she’s cranked up and ready. Fifth Risk, listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite, also has plenty of talent, though we suspect ‘Empress may be a tad quicker. From the first crop of the promising Uncle Mo stallion Outwork, this T. Pletcher-trained filly appears to be made of the right stuff but acts like she’ll may be better suited by more distance. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Jade Empress.
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RACE 4: Post 2:54 ET. Grade: X
Single: 2-No Salt

Forecast: There’s really not much we can do with the 3/5 morning line favorite No Salt in this maiden claiming $40,000 inner turf router for older horses other than to use him as no-value rolling exotic single. Runner-up under similar conditions earlier this month, the lightly-raced son of Tonalist shows a bullet half mile workout (:48 1/5, fastest of 53) over the Belmont Park training track since raced so we’ll assume he’s in good shape and will perform at least as well as last time. It’s hard to make a case for any of the others.
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RACE 5: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Unrelenting Force; 6-Too Early; 7-Cold Hard Cash

Forecast: This race almost certainly will feature a hot early pace due to the presence of a couple of recent maiden claiming $40,000 sprint winners, Cold Hard Cash and Unrelenting Force, who may very well go toe-to-toe from the get-go. Because he’s drawn inside, ‘Force projects as the leader while ‘Cash stalks or presses, but neither one is guaranteed to run as well at this nine furlong trip as they did when breaking their maiden around one turn. If they go too fast early, the race could set up nicely for Too Early, who returned off a long layoff to graduate over this track and distance last month. The Distorted Humor gelding isn’t particularly fast on speed figures but he has every right to produce a forward move with more than a month of rest since his victory. These are the three we’ll use in our rolling exotics with maybe a very slight edge on top to Too Early.
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RACE 6: Post 4:06 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Towering Case; 2-High School Crush

Forecast: Towering Case, listed at 6/5 on the morning line, shows up in a seller for the first time and at this level probably doesn’t have to improve at all to graduate. She’ll have to avoid trouble from the rail, but if she leaves cleanly the daughter of Gio Ponti should have every chance with a pace forcing or stalking trip. You may want to consider using Silent Empress somewhere on your ticket. The First Samurai filly goes for the powerful Clement/Rosario team and had very little chance due to severe traffic trouble in her debut vs. similar last month. It wasn’t much of a race that she exits, but at least today we’ll find out what she’s capable of.
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RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Big Engine; 2-Lone Rock; 7-Mount Travers

Forecast: Here’ a tough, competitive second-level allowance sprint with a few possibilities. Big Engine took advantage of a dream trip when rallying inside to register a highly-rated score over this track and distance in his first outing since January last month and with good racing luck again from his rail post he’ll be tough right back. He’s put good ones back to the back in the past and seems set for another huge effort. ‘Engine’s uncoupled stable mate Mount Travers has numbers that fit and actually is the lower-priced L. Rice entrant ion the morning line (5/2). He may be most effective when held up just a bit early and allowed to finish late and given that type of ride today could make some serious noise in the final furlong. Lone Rock is a first-off-the-claim for R. Diodoro, who’s had a slow meet but always is dangerous with this particular angle. With several back speed figures good enough to win and with the switch to the barn’s “go-to” rider D. Cohen, he’s worth including on your ticket.
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RACE 8: Post 5:14 ET. Grade: X
Use: 3-Rushing Fall; 5-Sistercharlie

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Diana S.-G1 promises to have at least a normal pace if not a bit quicker than par and that should help Sistercharlie get back on track. The defending champ was rusty when third in the Ballston Spa S.-G3 last month but shouldn’t have any excuses today. Rushing Fall always is tough to beat – she’s won 10 of 13 career starts – and can be equally effective on the lead or from a stalking position. Truthfully, they’re hard to separate so we’ll use them both in our rolling exotics with a very slight edge on top to Sistercharlie.
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RACE 9: Post 5:46 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Allied Invasion; 6-Antitfunkynow

Forecast: Allied Invasion is the logical top pick at 8/5 morning line favorite in this split of the fourth race, a lackluster state-bred maiden $40,000 claiming turf router. A fair-to-moderate third in his debut vs. similar earlier this month, the son of Normandy Invasion has a right to improve for the powerful C. Clement/J. Rosario combo with that bit of experience behind him and really doesn’t have much to beat. Aintitfunkynow was rank, clipped heels and bore out badly on the first turn, then did no running whatsoever when favored at this level last month. You’d have to think he can do better today if he settles and then produces the kind of late kick that he’s capable of. He’s a seven-race maiden and has less room for improvement that ‘Invasion has but his best effort gives him a look.
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