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Indian Cowboy Golf
6 - 1st round J. Thomas -135 over C. Morikawa
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Jason Sharpe MLB
3 - Detroit +120
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Strike Point Sports
3 - Minnesota under 8.5
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Vince Akins (VegasInsider)
MLB
Best Bet - Cleveland Indians -107
Houston Astros -215
Chicago White Sox -141
Los Angeles Dodgers -113
Philadelphia Phillies/New York Mets Over 7.5
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Kevin Rogers (VegasInsider)
MLB
Minnesota Twins +135
Cleveland Indians -113
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Doc Sports
4 nc.dinos-1.5-115
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Tony George
4 Units - #972 Chicago White Sox (-145) over Minnesota *8 EST
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Ben Burns
10* La angels -190
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H&H Sports
MLB
Triple Dime - Miami Marlins -132
Triple Dime - Chicago White Sox -140
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ats
4 brave over
3 met under
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Kirby Maxwell
MLB 100 Dimer
White Sox run-line
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Rick Gehman
Golf
Here is Gehman's writeup (posted Tuesday):
Last Event's Recap
(Tour Championship)
Mackenzie Hughes was a big mover at the Tour Championship, and while he missed out on cashing our top-10 ticket, his matchup victory over Cameron Champ added to our winning week. The big chunk of our success came from Xander Schauffele winning, without strokes, at +1200. It was good for +3.79 units on the week and +15.92 units on the season, and we're at +22.92 over the past 18 tournaments..
Event Preview
The U.S. Open won't be for the faint of heart. All reports and expectations are that Winged Foot will play incredibly difficult, with challenging greens and rough that will be extremely penal if you miss the fairway. Not only will it take a complete game to contend, you'll also need to be mentally tough to deal with four days worth of challenges.
Winner - Webb Simpson (+2500) - 0.55 units
Once they walk off the tee box, Webb Simpson becomes the best player in the world. He gains 1.76 strokes per round in the approach, around-the-green and putting categories. It's the most of any golfer in the field. And while Simpson's lone detriment is that he is not a long hitter, being able to find the fairway will be much more important than bombing it over 300 yards at Winged Foot. Simpson hits 67.3 percent of his fairways, which ranked him 18th on Tour last season. Already with one U.S. Open Championship on his resume, Simpson will look to add a second this week.
Winner - Collin Morikawa (+1600) - 0.60 units
The recipe for success at Winged Foot is very clear. Hit the fairway and turn this into a second-shot course. Morikawa can certainly find the short grass off the tee, and when you put an iron or wedge in his hand, he's one of the best players on the planet. He's answered every question we've asked of his game and continues to improve on a weekly basis.
Winner - Tyrrell Hatton (+4000) - 0.40 units
Hatton definitely has the "grind" mentality needed to find success at a U.S. Open venue. He was the winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. That was actually the most difficult course played on Tour last season, and Hatton was the one raising the trophy on Sunday. He's trending in the right direction, with three consecutive top-25 finishes, culminating with a fifth-place finish at the Tour Championship.
Top 10- Matthew Fitzpatrick (+500) - 0.45 units
It's not pretty, but Fitzpatrick finds a way to get it done. The more difficult the course, the better. Fitzpatrick played well at Bay Hill, Muirfield Village and Olympia Fields this past season. Those were three of the most difficult courses played, and Fitzpatrick finished T-9, T-6 and T-6, respectively. His back-to-back T-12 finishes at the U.S. Open prove that no stage, course or field is too big for Fitzpatrick.
Top 10- Brendon Todd (+600) - 0.50 units
At first glance, you'd cross Todd off your list of considerations for a major championship, but U.S. Open venues are different. There's a premium placed on hitting the fairway, which Todd accomplishes 71.36 percent of the time (fourth-best on Tour). There's also a premium placed on great putting, since these greens are so difficult. Todd ranked 20th in strokes gained putting last season. When you dig deeper, you realize that Todd's unique game does indeed create a path to success.
Tournament Matchup - Collin Morikawa (-118) over Bryson DeChambeau (-106) - 1 unit
DeChambeau is committed to a strategy that emphasizes distance over accuracy. That works well the vast majority of the time on Tour, but it is untested at a U.S. Open venue like Winged Foot. Morikawa, on the other hand, has a game that translates everywhere. Morikawa's floor is as high as any golfer on Tour, which usually comes in handy when wagering matchups.
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Sal Johnson
Here are Johnson's picks and analysis:
(Posted Monday)
U.S. Open
Since its inception in 1895, the U.S. Open had been on par with the British Open as the most critical golf events. But over the years, the British Open has escalated its presence, while the U.S. Open seems to have lost its luster in the last 20 years. Today, it is considered the fourth of the four majors.
The U.S. Open has been plagued by over-the-top course setups and problems administering the USGA rules. Each year, players go to the U.S. Open holding their breath to see if the course has been set up fairly and is a good test.
The USGA had problems in 2018 at Shinnecock Hills and 2015 at Chambers Bay, and the rule problem with Dustin Johnson in 2016. There are rarely similar issues at the Masters, the British Open and PGA Championship.
The USGA also prides itself on having a championship where anyone can attempt to qualify, and the U.S. and British Opens are events the common man can theoretically win. However, COVID-19 restrictions led to the USGA scuttling Open qualifying and basically cherry-picking the entries. You can't really say this year's event is an "Open."
Because of the world pandemic the U.S. Open has been forced to a week that could prove undesirable. With football back, it could take the attention from golf, and it just won't be the same without thousands of fans in the gallery.
What this year's event does have going for it is the course. Winged Foot is a mecca of the game and one of the best courses in the world. The course in Mamaroneck, N.Y., will be set up just like past U.S. Opens, with demanding rough to penalize poor shots, and the greens will be some of the hardest to hit and trickiest to putt on.
So despite the lack of fans, there is still a feeling that this is a U.S. Open. The field is one of the best in golf, with 89 of the top 100 players off the Official World Golf Ranking heading the field of 144 players.
Winged Foot was designed by A.W. Tillinghast, considered by many to be the the godfather of golf course architects. He joined Donald Ross, Seth Raynor and William Flynn as the men who built most of the great courses in golf's Golden Age between World War I and WWII.
Tillinghast was know to many as "Terrible Tillie," because he designed some of the most challenging golf courses. Winged Foot is always in the top 10 when discussing the most demanding courses in America.
Winged Foot is one of those rare courses where you need not only precision driving and execution in hitting the greens, but you have to place the shot in the best position for the putt. Getting it up and down when you miss the green is vital, and for many, that is the way to win a U.S. Open.
Hitting it long and wedging it onto the green for an easy birdie doesn't work at Winged Foot. Of course, hitting it long helps, but the penalty for missing the fairway is extreme. You may be in the rough only 150 yards from the pin, but the wiry bluegrass/rye rough makes it impossible to get it to the green.
So, who is best-suited for Winged Foot? Only 15 players in the field played in the last U.S. Open on the course in 2006. Of those 15, Adam Scott is probably the only one with a serious chance of winning. Phil Mickelson, Paul Casey, Tiger Woods, Sergio Garcia and Matt Kuchar also have the skills, but they are longshots.
Only 19 players from last week's field of 156 at the Safeway Open are playing this week, and only Kevin Streelman (T-3) and Chesson Hadley (T-14) finished in the top-25, so that isn't much help. Performances at the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship should be a better gauge.
Dustin Johnson obviously sticks out, having lost in a playoff at the BMW and coming off a win in the Tour Championship. Jon Rahm could also be a challenger, since he won that playoff at the BMW and was fourth in the Tour Championship. They are the only players with top-10s in both events.
A couple of others to keep an eye on will be Hideki Matsuyama and Tony Finau. Matsuyama finished T-3 at the BMW and T-15 at East Lake, and Finau (fifth at BMW and 17th at East Lake) is on the short list of possible favorites.
The 64-million-dollar question will be if the USGA has done a top-notch job in setting up Winged Foot, as it did at Pebble Beach last year. If not, it could be a long week of player frustration. The USGA has experience prepping this course, so it will be almost impossible for them to have a poor course setup unless Mother Nature plays a role.
Winged Foot Golf Club
This is the 120th edition of the U.S. Open, and it is the sixth time Winged Foot is hosting it. The last time was in 2006, when Geoff Ogilvy won by a shot over Jim Furyk, Phil Mickelson and Colin Montgomerie. Ogilvy finished 5 over par.
There have been 750 players in the five Opens at Winged Foot, and only two have broken par for 72 holes - Fuzzy Zoeller and Greg Norman at 4 under par. In the 2,115 rounds played in the U.S. Open, only 77 players have broken par. The average score of all entrants is 76.30, and look for that trend to continue as this year's Open.
The course will play 213 yards longer than it played in 2006, with the fifth hole changing from a 515-yard par 5 to a 502-yard par 4. The ninth hole, which was a 514-yard par 4 in 2006, will be a 565-yard par 5 this year.
The charm of the course lies in the par 3s and par 4s. Three of the par 3s are over 200 yards, with the third hole the longest at 243. The shortest is the seventh at 162 yards.
Of the 12 par 4s, only the sixth and the 11th will be under 400 yards. Nine of them play over 450 yards. Of course the fairways will be narrow, with the sixth, 11th and 15 holes less than 30 yards wide.
The USGA will have three levels of rough to penalize shots further off line. With heavy rain in the area the past two weeks, the rough will be thick. Look for players to have a tough time playing out into the fairway in some cases.
Despite the rain, the greens should be bone-dry by the time the event tees off. The greens are 6,600 square feet, with a lot of undulation. They will be wicked fast, with a combination of 80 percent poa annua and 20 percent bentgrass. A restoration has been done since 2006 to recapture the original size and contours of the greens. The person who wins will be the one who makes the most putts from 4 to 10 feet.
The poa annua will male the greens tricky to read, and lag putting will be vital. There will be a lot of putts in the 20- to 50-foot range, and the contours make it hard to cozy long putts close to the hole.
But we can't stress enough the importance of finding the fairway off the tee and getting the ball on the green in regulation.
Keys to winning
Like any tough U.S. Open course, the keys are keeping the ball in the fairway and hitting as many greens as possible. If you miss the fairway just a little and have a good lie in the first cut, getting it on the green is possible. But from the second stage or third stage of rough, it's going to be difficult.
Poor lies in the rough will sometimes require gouging it back into the fairway and trying to scramble for a par. What gets players into trouble is trying to muscle it onto the green, as most of the time they advance the ball into the rough by the green. That makes for a near-impossible shot that brings the possibility of double bogey into play.
Keeping it on the short grass is the key for a good week, but the will be more bogeys than birdies. In 2006, only 344 birdies were made while there were 1,148 bogeys and 170 double-bogeys.
√ Major key is being great with the driver, driving it both straight and long. Success means hitting off the fairway, and if you're in the rough you're asking for trouble.
√ If you are in the deep rough, forget the ego trip, grab a wedge and gouge it back into the fairway. Those who gamble from the rough bring double-bogey (or worse) into play.
√ It's important to put your shot from the fairway on, but it's also necessary to put it on the right side of the hole. The undulations of the greens mean if you're on the wrong side, making the putt is almost impossible.
√ For this week, par is the player's best friend. Winged Foot is a long, tedious battle and boredom can spell disaster, so play for par. Birdies are hard to come by, but you can still make them.
√ The players who manage the weather will have the advantage. It will start out perfect Thursday, in the low 80s with very little rain. But a front is forecast to move in Friday, meaning temperatures in the mid-60s the rest of the way, but there won't be much wind.
√ Experience and getting to know the course is very important. Caddies are always important for players, but this week they will be critical in helping players judge shots into the green and helping read the breaks on putts.
One of these three should win
1. Dustin Johnson
√ When he gets on a roll like this, he's near impossible to beat. The great thing is, no matter how much he is on everyone's radar, it won't bother him. The only way he doesn't win is if he beats himself, which is rare for him.
√ Over his last four starts, he has T-2, a win, a second and a win. In his last 20 rounds, his highest score is 70 and he is 64 under in those 20 rounds.
√ Is ninth in strokes gained tee-to-green, 40th in greens in regulation and third in par breakers, despite having a rough first half of the season.
2. Xander Schauffele
√ Remarkable record in the U.S. Open, finishing T-3 last year, T-6 in 2018 and T-5 in 2017. He is really tough on tough courses.
√ He has played well of late - T-2 at the Tour Championship, T-6 at WGC-FedEx St. Jude, T-10 at PGA Championship - and has missed just one cut, back in January at the Farmers.
√ Is seventh in strokes gained tee-to-green, 10th in greens in regulation, second in scrambling, 33rd in strokes gained putting and 10th in birdie average. All of these show Schauffele could have a great week in New York.
3. Justin Thomas
√ Has struggled at the U.S. Open, with his only top-10 a T-9 in 2017. Missed the cut last year.
√ Was T-2 at the Tour Championship, T-25 on tough BMW Championship course and won WGC-FedEx St. Jude.
√ Is first in strokes gained tee-to-green, first in strokes gained approach the green, 31st in greens in regulation and T-2 in birdie avearge. All of these show Justin is playing great coming into the U.S. Open and can win again.
Those with momentum
4. Hideki Matsuyama
√ Was T-2 in U.S. Open in 2017 and T-10 at Merion in 2013. His game has come along, and if he can make some putts, he could contend.
√ Was T-3 at BMW Championship and T-15 at Tour Championship.
√ Is second in strokes gained tee-to-green, 53rd in greens in regulation and 19th in scrambling. He is a great ball striker but needs to have a great putting week, which is the problem. He is 170th in strokes gained putting.
5. Webb Simpson
√ The U.S. Open winner in 2012 was T-16 last year and T-10 in 2018.
√ Won at Hilton Head and was T-12 at Tour Championship. Has played well since the break, only shooting one round over par in his last 20.
√ Is T-16 in strokes gained tee-to-green, 11th in greens in regulation, 13th in strokes gained putting and first in par breakers. All of these show Webb could have a great week at Winged Foot.
6. Sebastian Munoz
√ Missed cut in only U.S. Open start in 2018.
√ Played great in three FedEx Cup playoff events, finishing T-18 at Northern Trust and T-8 at BMW and Tour Championship.
√ Is T-34 in strokes gained tee-to-green, 31st in scrambling, T-94 in strokes gained putting and T-34 in par breakers. He is a great long-shot candidate.
Solid credentials to win
7. Rory McIlroy
√ Won the U.S. Open in 2011 on a course similar to Winged Foot. His game has been erratic since the break, but now that the baby is home, Rory can get back to normal.
√ His play has been very upside-down, but he has made the cut in every 2020 event and was T-8 at Tour Championship.
√ Is sixth in strokes gained tee-to-green, 76th in greens in regulation and 10th in par breakers, It's only a matter of time before he snaps out of this funk.
8. Daniel Berger
√ Was T-49 last year, T-6 at Shinnecock in 2018, but the is if he can play in the Northeast.
√ Won Colonial, T-3 at Hilton Head, T-2 at WGC-FedEx St. Jude, third at Northern Trust and T-15 at Tour Championship.
√ Is 15th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 100th in greens in regulation, first in scrambling and 17th in strokes gained putting. Berger has the stats to show he could be good at Winged Foot.
9. Patrick Cantlay
√ Has played two U.S. Opens, finishing T-21 last year and T-45 in 2018. A bit disappointing for a guy that should do well on tough courses.
√ Was T-13 at Memorial, T-7 at Workday and T-12 at BMW Championship.
√ Is 12th in strokes gained tee-to-green, T-57 in greens in regulation and 58th in strokes gained putting, all good stats for a long-shot pick.
10. Tommy Fleetwood
√ Has had good moments at the U.S. Open: Was second in 2018, fourth in 2017 and was T-65th last year.
√ Has not played up to his standards since the break but was T-3 last week in Portugal and shot final-round 64.
√ Is 92nd in strokes gained tee-to-green, 89th in greens in regulation and 26th in strokes gained putting.
Players you need to consider
11. Matthew Fitzpatrick
√ Was T-12 last year and in 2018 and has the sneaky type of game to do well on tough courses.
√ Played well at BMW Championship finishing T-6 on that tough course, was third on another tough course at the Memorial.
√ Is 81st in strokes gained tee-to-green, 123rd in greens in regulation, but he is a great putter, which will help him at Winged Foot. He is second in strokes gained putting and sixth in putts inside 10 feet.
12. Tony Finau
√ Missed cut last year at U.S. Open but was fifth in 2018.
√ Game has really come along since his eighth-place finish at Memorial. Was T-3 at 3M Open, T-4 at PGA Championship and fifth at BMW Championship.
√ Is 11th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 47th in greens in regulation and T-69 in strokes gained putting. His biggest problem is closing out in the final round, but you never know when he will be in the right place at the right time.
Be careful about them
13. Jon Rahm
√ Was T-3 last year at the U.S. Open at Pebble. Usually struggles on courses with heavy rough.
√ Is a streaky player and was T-12 at PGA Championship, T-6 at Northern Trust and won at BMW Championship. He finished fourth at the Tour Championship despite second-round 74. Just a tough week for him, and I think he has cooled off a bit.
√ Is third in strokes gained tee-to-green, 18th in greens in regulation and 11th in scrambling. He is 22nd in strokes gained putting, and his putter will help him at Winged Foot. In 15 starts, he has six top-five finishes and rules on courses with poa, so anything can happen I still think the course doesn't suit him.
14. Collin Morikawa
√ Was T-35 in his only U.S. Open start last year.
√ He has won twice, at Workday and PGA Championship, and was sixth at Tour Championship, but I wonder if he can putt the greens at Winged Foot, and I think they will be too much for him.
√ Is fifth in strokes gained tee-to-green and 44th in greens in regulation, but he is 87th in scrambling and 128th in strokes gained putting, which will make it tough on him at Winged Foot.
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