Sunday 10/18/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 6
Micah Roberts

NFC West Matchup receives attention

The biggest line move of NFL Week 6 action started 10 days ago when the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted their early Week 6 numbers with the San Francisco 49ers as three-point home favorites over the Los Angeles Rams.

But following the Week 5 results, the SuperBook immediately posted the Rams as favorites (-3), which was mostly based on the 49ers eye-opening 43-17 home loss to the Miami Dolphins.

Bettors thought so low of the 49ers after quartreback Jimmy Garoppolo’s return to the lineup was a disaster that they thought the 7-point move wasn’t enough and bet the Rams to -3.5 on Monday morning.

On Wednesday, 49ers money showed up pushing the Rams down to -3 (-120).

On Thursday, they bet the 49ers again pushing the game to Rams -3 flat. But by Friday afternoon it was back up to Rams -3 -120.

At the South Point, sportsbook director Chris Andrews says it’s one of those sharp-public divide games. You can guess who the public likes. The Rams are 4-1 with a top-4 defense coming off a wire-to-wire 30-10 win and cover (-7) at Washington. Meanwhile, the 49ers have two straight bad losses as 8.5-point home favorites over the Eagles and Dolphins, and the public liked the 49ers in both and got burned. They’ve learned their lesson and refuse to be burned again by the 49ers.

But the way the San Francisco reporters are talking, this game is a defining moment for Garoppolo. He’s at a crossroads. This could be it and he might be playing for his job and home. He should be motivated, so if you like the 49ers, you have the desperation narrative going for you. And it’s a home game on a Sunday night although the 49ers have gone winless at Levi Stadium (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) which hasn’t had any fans attend this season yet.

The 49ers won both meetings last season, the Rams have covered three of the last four. The road team has covered four of the past five meetings.

Week 6 - Largest Public Leans

Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers

SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay says the Rams are one of their top public plays this week, along with the Ravens (-7.5 at Philadelphia), and Packers (PK at Tampa Bay). Those are the same top-3 public plays at the South Point.

Battle of the Bays

Up north in Reno, Atlantis sportsbook director Marc Nelson also has the Packers as their top public team. The first five weeks of the season the Buccaneers were a very popular public team as people transferred QB Tom Brady’s success with the Patriots into continuous trends for 2020.

But when the Chicago Bears (+3.5) beat the Bucs, 20-19, last Thursday night, most bettors had seen enough and flipped.

The Packers are 4-0 both SU and ATS, the type of run the public loves to press until it eventually loses. Plus, Green Bay and star QB Aaron Rodgers will be playing with rest after having a bye in Week 5.

However, BetMGM VP of trading Jason Scott says their biggest liability so far through Friday afternoon was on the Buccaneers.

The SuperBook early number had the Bucs -3 (EVEN) and after the loss to the Bears, it was readjusted to Packers -1.5. But despite all the public play, there’s enough respected money on the Bucs to keep the SuperBook at pick ‘em.

Sharp Report

The Ravens are part of the most popular 3-team parlay this week, but unlike the other two, wise guys have not shown their hand on the other side with the Eagles yet and it was sitting Ravens -7.5 all week until the SuperBook moved to -8 on Thursday. On Friday, respected money came on the Ravens to push them to -9.5 and then back to -9. BetMGM is also at -9.

Kornegay said their sharp play is on the Cowboys (-1 vs Cardinals on Monday), Browns (+3.5 at Pittsburgh), and Texans (+3.5 at Tennessee) while Andrews says the South Point’s biggest sharp risk is the Bears (+1.5 at Carolina), Jaguars (+3 vs. Lions), and 49ers.

Nelson says the Atlantis’ top wise guy plays are the Browns, Bucs, and Broncos (+9 at New England).



The Patriots canceled practice on Friday after a player tested positive for COVID-19 and there were some concerns in Indianapolis for their home game against the Bengals (+7.5) but reopened their facility Friday after tests came back negative.

Both games are still on the board, but bettors do have concerns.

“No big players (yet), covid has everyone spooked,” said BetMGM’s Scott.

Nevada’s BetMGM high rollers (whales) usually arrive Friday or Saturday night.

AFC South Trap?

The game that surprises me the most that the public isn’t on, or at least as much as the other three, is the undefeated Titans (-3.5) at home against the Texans who finally won last week. Wynn sportsbook director Doug Castaneda says the Titans are their biggest risk thus far, but they’ve got the type of players where one bet means the entire day's success. Kornegay has sharp money on the Texans.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rams vs. 49ers Week 6 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

For the third straight week it's the NFC West that gets some part of the Sunday Night Football spotlight, and the San Francisco 49ers are hoping this home date turns out better than their last one.

That was a tough 25-20 home loss to the Eagles as heavy home chalk, and now two weeks later they are catching a field goal with the division rival Los Angeles Rams in town.

Who ends up playing (and even playing well) for the 49ers at QB is a huge question coming into the game and they are an easy target to be picked on right now because of it.

The 49ers upcoming schedule is about as rough as it gets, so this could spiral downwards in a heartbeat, but a counted out former champ can be tough to completely dispose of.

Betting Resources

Week 6 Matchup: NFC West
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Date: Sunday, Oct. 18, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC

The San Francisco 49ers have struggled at Levi's Stadium this season, going 0-3 both SU and ATS. (AP)

Line Movements

The Rams know all about the post-Super Bowl struggles a team like the 49ers appear to be dealing with, as that was the Rams at the beginning of last year.

Starting out this year with a 4-1 SU record is great, but when all four of those wins have come against NFC East teams, you know there are going to be questions about resume quality.

Beating the defending conference champs regardless of what state they are currently in can't hurt the Rams resume going forward, but have they done enough to be a road favorite for this game?

Spread: Los Angeles -3.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -165 San Francisco +145
Total: 51.5

2020 Betting Stats

Los Angeles

Overall: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Road: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 27.2 (Rank 14)
Defense PPG: 18.0 (Rank 3)
Offense YPG: 403.6 (Rank 4)
Defense YPG: 304.2 (Rank 4)

San Francisco

Overall: 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Home: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 24.8 (Rank 18)
Defense PPG: 22.8 (Rank 11)
Offense YPG: 364.2 (Rank 21)
Defense YPG: 323 (Rank 5)

Handicapping the Total

Not knowing the starter under center for the Niners for certain makes it tough to be confident in either side of this total.

I would argue that the quarterback trio we've seen from San Francisco are all closer to being equal in overall skill set than they aren't, but that is more helpful in determining a side rather than a total. Chemistry between whomever is throwing the ball and the pass catchers are out there does change based on the name.

But this is still a Rams team that's run through weak NFC East competition so far, although they did hold Dallas to just 17 points. But their game against Buffalo saw the Bills finish with 35, and no matter who the 49ers go with at QB, it's still going to be better than most of what LA saw from the Giants or Washington.

This is also going to be one of the first halfway decent defenses the Rams will have seen this year, as again, their 2020 has consisted of beating up on the NFC East. It's been a division rivalry where the winner has put up at least 30 in five of the past six meetings, and I'm not sure the Rams can get there, but them getting to that number wouldn't be surprising either. Buffalo's shown to be one of the better defenses the Rams have played and they hung 30+ on the Bills.

Long way of saying that this total is probably right where it should be, and it's a series where I think flipping the total result in the rematch might be the better way to approach the two games these two play this year. Too much uncertainty here on both ends, and we'll have a much better profile of each squad when they meet again at the end of November.

Head-to-Head History

Dec. 21, 2019 - San Francisco 34 vs. Los Angeles 31, 49ers -7, Over 45.5
Oct. 13, 2019 - San Francisco 20 vs. Los Angeles 7, 49ers +3, Under 50
Dec. 30, 2018 - Los Angeles 48 vs. San Francisco 32, Rams -10.5, Over 50
Oct. 21, 2018 - Los Angeles 39 at San Francisco 10, Rams -9, Under 52

Handicapping the Side

I might not be able to call a one-point win for the home side like last week, but with me lumping all of the 49ers QB options into a group I can expect what to get from, siding with the underdog and the points as I did a week ago is the play once again.

I do think the Rams are an above average team this year, but their 4-1 SU record doesn't hold nearly the same weight that some other four-win teams have at this point in the year. It's inflating their stock just ever so slightly, and when paired with a 49ers stock that's about as low as it can get right now, it just doesn't seem like this line is completely correct.

Had Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners just got beat at home last week against Miami – not utterly demolished from start to finish – I don't think the perception of this 49ers team is as low as it currently seems to be.

Last week's play isn't necessarily a good thing for the Niners long term this year, as they may be an average team that simply overachieved last year, but in a spot where it's got to feel like the direction of their season is on the line, I think we get the best versions of whomever is out there on the field in San Fran colors.

All three QB options for the 49ers have recent starting experience with this team so there are minimal worries there, and it was just a few weeks ago that the Rams were a two-point road dog vs Philly, while the 49ers were laying -8.5 at home against that same Eagles team a couple of weeks later. The drastically different results for those teams in those games isn't quite worth the adjustment here in my view, and the Rams record could get somewhat exposed here.

San Francisco is on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog – a role they've yet to be in this season – and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against a winning team. I believe the 49ers play up to the level of their competition in this spot, and facing a familiar foe who they swept last year might allow the Niners to play more on instinct and not have them try to overthink their way out of this funk.

I may not be sure about who ultimately takes the field for San Francisco in this game, but I'm also not sure about what this Rams team truly is in 2020. Until they show me a more definitive picture one way or the other, I just don't think I can agree with this picture being painted of the Rams being worthy road favorites in this spot. I don't even think they win the game.

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

LB Ogbonnia Okoronkwo: Elbow - Out
S Jordan Fuller: Shoulder - Out
LB Micah Kiser: Groin - Questionable
OT Bobby Evans: Shoulder - Probable

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Ankle - Probable
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.: Calf
S Marcell Harris: Ankle
CB Emmanuel Moseley: Concussion - Questionable
CB Dontae Johnson: Groin - Out
CB K'Waun Williams: Knee - Out
LB Kwon Alexander: Anle - Out

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB line movement October 18
Patrick Everson

The Los Angeles Dodgers grabbed a Game 6 victory, forcing a winner-take-all Game 7 against the Atlanta Braves. Los Angeles opened as -135 favorites at The SuperBook for Sunday's game.

MLB betting odds are up and getting attention for the lone matchup on the Sunday schedule, Game 7 of the NLCS. The Los Angeles Dodgers look to complete their comeback from a 3-1 series deficit when they face the Atlanta Braves, with the Tampa Bay Rays waiting in the World Series.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s game. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.

MLB line movement

The Dodgers got back-to-back solo home runs from Corey Seager and Justin Turner as part of a three-run first inning Saturday, and that held up the rest of the way in a 3-1 Game 6 win over the Braves. That sets up a decisive Game 7, with first pitch at 8:15 p.m. ET Sunday.

Atlanta plans to start Ian Anderson, who is 2-0 with a perfect 0.00 ERA in three starts this postseason. Los Angeles’ starter wasn’t determined by late Saturday night, but The SuperBook went ahead and posted a line of Dodgers -135/Braves +125, with a total of 8.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Sunday, October 18

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers

Game 909-910
October 18, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Anderson) 16.960
LA Dodgers
(TBD) 19.012
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-140
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-140); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Sunday, October 18

Best-of-7 series

National League
Atlanta (3-3) vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Anderson is 5-2, 2.06 in nine career MLB starts
— Braves are 6-3 in his starts this season.
— Under is 4-2 in his last six starts.
— Anderson needed 85 pitches to throw four shutout innings against the Dodgers, in his last start, his only start vs LA.
— He’s thrown 15.2 scoreless innings in his three playoff starts.

— Braves won eight of their first 11 playoff games, but lost last two.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 24-17 away from home this season.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.

Dodgers haven’t announced a starter; will be a bullpen game.

— Dodgers are 51-20 this year, but 3-3 this week.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 30-11 away from home this season.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Sunday, October 18

Trend Report

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games
LA Dodgers is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (43 - 28) vs. LA DODGERS (51 - 20) - 8:15 PM
IAN ANDERSON (R) vs. TONY GONSOLIN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 30-8 (+15.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 43-28 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 7-0 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Sunday this season.
ATLANTA is 78-64 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 110-77 (+18.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 20-9 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ATLANTA is 18-8 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-3 (+1.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.7 Units)

IAN ANDERSON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
ANDERSON is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

TONY GONSOLIN vs. ATLANTA since 1997
GONSOLIN is 0-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 6.48 and a WHIP of 1.321.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

909ATLANTA -910 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 40-26 SU (12.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	NFL – Falcons +4
2.	Gameday Network	NFL – Steelers -3
3.	VegasSI.com	NFL – Ravens over 46.5
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	NFL – Patriots -8
5.	Sports Action 365	NFL – 49ers +3
6.	Point Spread Report	NFL – Packers -1
7.	Lou Panelli	NFL – Ravens -10
8.	Gerry “Big Cat” Andino	NFL – Washington +2
9.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	NFL – Bears +1
10.	William E. Stockton	NFL – Jaguars +3
11.	Vincent Pioli	NFL – Patriots over 44.5
12.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	NFL – 49ers under 51.5
13.	SCORE	NFL – Packers -1
14.	East Coast Line Movers	NFL – Texans under 52.5
15.	Tony Campone	NFL – Patriots -8
16.	Chicago Sports Group	NFL – Dolphins -9
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	NFL – Colts -7.5
18.	VIP Action	NFL – Washington over 42.5
19.	South Beach Sports	NFL – Bears +1
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	NFL – Jaguars under 53.5
21.	NY Players Club	NFL – Texans +3.5
22.	Fred Callahan	NFL – Packers -1
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	NFL – Ravens -10
24.	Michigan Sports	NFL – Patriots over 44.5
25.	National Consensus Report	NFL – Dolphins -9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

Will Rogers Downs - Race 7	Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.) / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Allowance • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $15,700 • Post: 2:30P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SHAW ISLAND SENATOR: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. APOLLITICAL DOLL: Horse ranks in the top three in Trac kMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PICK YOUR DYNASTY: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). EYESA FANCY PYC: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Hor se race).
1	SHAW ISLAND SENATOR	2/1	5/1
7	APOLLITICAL DOLL	3/1	5/1
6	PICK YOUR DYNASTY	4/1	7/1
3	EYESA FANCY PYC	5/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SHAW ISLAND SENATOR	1	2/1	Average	82	68	4.2	0.0	0.0
2	OUR SILVER STORM	2	12/1	Average	71	63	4.0	0.0	0.0
3	EYESA FANCY PYC	3	5/1	Fast	72	69	3.5	0.0	0.0
4	BV THISISAMAZINGRACE	4	8/1	Average	68	68	5.2	0.0	0.0
5	IN TERROREM	5	8/1	Slow	70	65	7.7	0.0	0.0
6	PICK YOUR DYNASTY	6	4/1	Average	72	76	5.5	0.0	0.0
7	APOLLITICAL DOLL	7	3/1	Slow	76	77	6.6	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 8	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta Superfecta (.10 cent mnimum wager) $1 Pick Three
Trial • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 87 • Purse: $4,000 • Post: 9:28P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. 124 LBS. (NO SEX ALLOWANCE).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * APOLLITICAL GOLD: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. COPAUINOS BEST: Quarter horse has the highe st last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ALL NIGHT HERO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/s urface. SPECIAL ROYAL EAGLE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	APOLLITICAL GOLD	3/5	3/1
3	COPAUINOS BEST	6/1	7/1
2	ALL NIGHT HERO	8/1	8/1
6	SPECIAL ROYAL EAGLE	8/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CARTELS COMET	1	12/1	Fast	79	62	2.4	0.0	0.0
2	ALL NIGHT HERO	2	8/1	Average	90	80	3.7	0.0	0.0
3	COPAUINOS BEST	3	6/1	Average	84	81	4.7	0.0	0.0
4	BOLD EAGLE	4	10/1	Average	78	76	4.6	0.0	0.0
5	APOLLITICAL GOLD	5	3/5	Average	101	90	3.7	0.0	0.0
6	SPECIAL ROYAL EAGLE	6	8/1	Average	89	78	3.9	0.0	0.0
7	SEIS GRACE	7	8/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	80	69	6.1	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 64

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $22,500, ALLOWED 1 LB.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 MARK WHATS MINE 5/2
# 8 RACHEL'S LADY 8/1
# 4 PRETTY MISCHIEF 8/1

MARK WHATS MINE has a very strong shot to take this race. Shows signs of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 61 Equibase Speed Fig which is one of the strongest in this group. Has to be given consideration based on the quite good Equibase speed fig recorded in the last contest. I can't pass on this filly given one of the most favorable rider and handler combos on the grounds. RACHEL'S LADY - She looks very good in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. Put up a strong Equibase speed fig in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair. PRETTY MISCHIEF - Will most likely compete solidly in the early speed contest which bodes well with this group of horses. She should have a good showing versus this softer lot.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Golden Hour Wagers - Race #2 - Post: 5:30pm - Optional Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#6 SADIE BLUEGRASS (ML=7/5)
#2 WOKE UP TO ACES (ML=3/1)
#3 MIDNIGHT SUNRISE (ML=7/2)


SADIE BLUEGRASS - A big drop in Equibase class figure points from her September 18th race at Golden Gate Fields. Based on that data, I will give this one the edge. This filly likes to be near the lead. Today's affair is a shorter trip and should promote her chances. I like to see consistency in a racehorse. Look at this filly's PPs. Almost always in the money. This filly should be at the peak of fitness, this far into her form cycle. WOKE UP TO ACES - Trainer McCarthy gave this filly a good stiff blow out. Last one was 2nd fastest of the day. Couton and McCarthy have had fantastic success together over the last year. This equine has the speed, and no one may be able to keep up with her. McCarthy drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to think this animal will be tough to beat at this level. MIDNIGHT SUNRISE - Nice winning percentage this jock and conditioner tandem have been putting together. This filly is in excellent condition right now. Finished second last time around the track and comes back promptly. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BLACK DROP (ML=4/1),

BLACK DROP - This filly notched a speed figure in her last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - SADIE BLUEGRASS - Betting the horse with the best last race speed figure is a good angle. None higher than this filly's last one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Can't see anything going off the right odds to bet to win

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - SO - 9.0f on the Turf. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 93

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $6,500 OR LESS IN 2019 - 2020 OR CLAIMING PRICE $13,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 18 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $13,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 ANTARCTIC 8/1
# 2 STOCK TRADE 5/2
# 6 HIGH ON SUGAR 5/1

ANTARCTIC is my selection and is a competitive value-based bet given the 8/1 line. He has been running well and the Speed Figures are among the most respectable in this field. Will most likely be one of the early speedsters of the bunch going into the midpoint of the race. Could beat this field given the 97 speed figure garnered in his last outing. STOCK TRADE - Ran a very strong last race. Appears to have a strong class edge based on the latest company kept.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Century Mile - Race #5 - Post: 7:15pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 96

Rating:

#1 REGAL MAX (ML=8/1)
#4 GO AWAY (ML=2/1)
#3 SYNERGY (ML=5/2)


REGAL MAX - This gelding is in nice form, having run a strong race on September 27th, finishing first. GO AWAY - Rode this mount on Sep 27th and Walcott is back again in the irons this time. The jock/conditioner tandem of Walcott and Brown has a strong return on investment together. I like to bet on this handicapping theory, a horse coming back off a sharp race within the last month. You have to be keen on that last race speed rating, 87, which is the best last race speed figure of this bunch. SYNERGY - Reyes and Heads perform well when they combine forces. It's hard to beat a +20 ROI for a jockey and conditioner. Ranked numero uno in earnings per race. Another sign that this equine outclasses this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SHIMSHINE (ML=4/1), #5 RAIL HUGGER (ML=6/1), #6 WHISKEY BOUND (ML=8/1),

SHIMSHINE - This stretch-runner looks to have no chance without a speed battle on the front end. RAIL HUGGER - Will probably be way back with too much to do down the stretch. Not probable that the speed rating he notched on Sep 27th will be good enough in this race. WHISKEY BOUND - This gelding probably needs a more conducive pace configuration to make his late move. The fig last out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this entrant as a possibly overvalued equine.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - REGAL MAX - Back in my statistics class, I did a study of how key only pace is and the pct of winners that demonstrated this profile. The pct was very high and this pony shows the potential for lone pace.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #1 REGAL MAX on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	1 with [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Keeneland

10/18/20, KEE, Race 8, 4.57 ET
10/18/20,KEE,8,1 1/2M [Turf] 2:27:00 STAKES. Rood and Riddle Dowager Stakes. Grade 3. Purse $125,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

Rating	P#	Horse Name	M/L	Jockey	Trainer	Flags	Occ	WPC	ROI
100.0000	1	With Dignity	10/1	Leparoux J R	Wilkes Ian R.	FWC	55	36.36	1.90/$1
098.3867	4	Always Shopping	5/2	Gaffalione T	Pletcher Todd A.	JTE	88	28.41	1.44/$1
097.9922	5	Siberian Iris (IRE)	5/2	Geroux F	Mandella Richard E.	S	55	36.36	1.90/$1
096.5475	6	Naomi Broadway (BRZ)	10/1	Talamo J	Lobo Paulo H.		88	28.41	1.44/$1
096.0763	2	Blame Debbie	2/1	Franco M	Motion H. Graham	L	88	28.41	1.44/$1
095.5674	3	Over Thinking	4/1	Bejarano R	Oliver Victoria H.		55	36.36	1.90/$1

Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 20.45, ROI 1.29/$1
. . . .
100.0000 1 With Dignity
[Category]Condition
[AllTurf]LastRacePurseNotLowerThanToday
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

Rating	P#	Horse Name	M/L	Jockey	Trainer	Flags	Occ	WPC	ROI
100.0000	1	With Dignity	10/1	Leparoux J R	Wilkes Ian R.	FWC	152	26.97	1.37/$1
096.9328	3	Over Thinking	4/1	Bejarano R	Oliver Victoria H.	S	152	26.97	1.37/$1
094.9070	4	Always Shopping	5/2	Gaffalione T	Pletcher Todd A.	JTE	152	26.97	1.37/$1
094.7808	5	Siberian Iris (IRE)	5/2	Geroux F	Mandella Richard E.		152	26.97	1.37/$1
094.2222	2	Blame Debbie	2/1	Franco M	Motion H. Graham	L	143	30.77	1.35/$1
092.2371	6	Naomi Broadway (BRZ)	10/1	Talamo J	Lobo Paulo H.		152	26.97	1.37/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 45.45, ROI 1.94/$1
. . . .
100.0000 1 With Dignity
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]LastRaceWasNotFavorite(not entry)