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Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Late Pick 4 Analysis
July 12, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Woodbine Mohawk Park begins the week with an 11 race card. The headliners are three-year-old fillies battling in Ontario Sires Stakes-Grass Roots action. The 0.20 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 8, and that sequence will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 8
1-Zig Zag (5/2)-Makes the 3rd start on Lasix and drops to a soft spot. This might be a wake-up call and there could be some urgency tonight to be forwardly placed.
2-Nimbus Deo (6-1)-Comes off an even try versus better in the 1st start off the bench and this could be an opportunity to take the 1st picture in 2021. This mare loves Mohawk, has hit the board in 13 of 17 starts with 8 wins. Solid fractions would help and should like the company.
8-O Narutac Perfetto (9-1)-Finished ahead of #2 in last and gets a positive driver change with Jamieson taking a seat. This pilot has had success sitting behind this 10-year-old. Should be a threat at a nice price with a good cover flow.
Race 9
6-Voluptuous (3-1)-Sunshine Beach filly went off at 3/5 on 6-24 and looked the part winning in 1.52 on her own. Paced the 2nd half in a solid 55.3 and that performance is difficult to overlook. Faces tougher, but my take is this Alagna trainee won't blush at this field. Looking for another picture and banking McNair does his job.
Race 10
1-Grandma Heidi (5/2)-Was in tall cotton last week and now drops to a spot to shine. McNair shouldn't waste a lot of fuel getting to the point as there isn't much gate speed in this field. Looks like a major player at a short price.
2-I Got The Looks (9/2)-Raced from the back versus similar and rolled the back half in .56 to finish in a dead heat for 2nd. Henry takes the lines, he will need to be closer to the lead turning for home and maybe starting inside will help with a more efficient trip.
5-Only For Justice (3-1)-Christoforou's choice over #2 steps-up after finishing 2nd as a 9/5 chalk in last and does fit with this crew. This will be the 3rd start off the bench and should be in the hunt for the top prize with this post draw.
Race 11
4-Western Wish (3-1)-Betterthancheddar filly likes to win and should be a threat if dialed on high. Does come off a sick scratch on 6-29. Makes the 2nd start for Auciello and was a picture taker in the barn debut on 6-17. Looks like a player if 100%.
6-Saulsbrook Olympia (7/2)-This filly has been a terror on the smaller B-track ovals and will respect chances here. Shows good speed and makes its 1st appearance at Wbsb. Has won 7 of 10 lifetime and comes off a stakes win at Clinton that had a $58,300 purse.
9-A Better Game (4-1)-Beaten chalk comes out of the same stake race as #6 but had a tough 1st over trip. JMac steers as McNair picked #4, and he has driven before. Should be better on the larger oval, has finished 1st and 2nd in 2 starts here. Might be overlooked at the windows.
0.20 Late Pick 4
1,2,8/6/1,2,5/4,6,9
Total Bet=$5.40
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Parx Racing - Race #6
Parx Racing - Race #9
Picks Notes #3 Onthisharvestmoon She has been in reliable form and brings a little bit of pace to a race that doesn't have a ton of other serious sprint speed. She should be in the mix from the start, and anything like that 6/1 ML price would feel very appealing. #4 Stand by You She has been in with some better groups at Keeneland and Belmont, but she lacks early pace and might not get the setup she needs to land this. #1 To a T Finisher might be able to get a little jump on the deeper closers, and she just scored at this level when racing for the tag, so she obviously has a claim on this one right back. Race Summary Onthisharvestmoon has shown a little bit of talent so far, and she might be able to get a good trip right up near the top while getting a big jump on the finishers.
Parx Racing - Race #10
Picks Notes #4 I Am Redeemed He has done little wrong through two starts and still has some upside the rest of these don't. Another spy and finish trip should be in the cards. #8 Pylon Drops in class out of stakes company for this one, and while he tends to be a bit dicey in the late stages, he should be in a great spot turning for home. #1 Strawberry Red His form tends to be hit or miss, and but he probably offers a fair price here and can land an underneath share of this. Bit of a stretch on top for me. Race Summary I Am Redeemed looks the part in what feels like a pretty modest bunch for the level, and a repeat of either of his last two might be good enough to land this.
Picks Notes #2 Lease He has pretty consistent turf form, and his finishing ability might make him a mid-range price threat in the lane today. #10 Croi Mor He has been in with some decent groups while crossing the country, and he probably fits a bit better here than in a couple of those spots. Midpack tracking trip. #5 Omati He has form that looks competitive with these, but he'll be trying the turf for the first time. There is enough green in the pedigree to think he'll tolerate the new footing, but I'd want something close to the 6/1 ML offering to find out. Race Summary Lease has some late ability that many in here lack, and that might make him a long threat down the lane. Something like the 8/1 ML offering would seem fair enough.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Indiana Grand - Race #6
Indiana Grand - Race #7
Picks Notes #5 Maryanorginger With some power barns in here, this one probably won't take a lot of play, but she last here was a decent third and she should be able to get a good stalking trip just off some speedy individuals. Legit chance to pull off the upset. #3 Cinnabunny Ran well in a pair of graded stakes at Gulfstream and was third in an optional allowance at Churchill Downs; has the connections and will be tough. #2 Gray Owl Missed by a head last time in her first over the strip; very rapid and a power player from the start. Race Summary Maryanorginger showed improvement as soon as she went from Aqueduct to Indiana Grand and is getting back to good form. Won Belmont's Astoria in 2019, so back class is part of her.
Indiana Grand - Race #8
Picks Notes #8 Zanesville Was up in time here last time in his only local start, and he'll be tough if it remains on turf or if it is transferred tot he main track; solid campaigner. #5 Ransack Just last on the front end at Churchill; should be a serious threat on the Indiana Grand turf. #4 Blue Steel Is in from Belterra Park, where he romped in two straight and started a string of three with an impressive score at Keeneland; trouble on the front end. Race Summary Zanesville has taken two of his last three and just doesn't run many bad ones, having 11 wins and 23 on-the-board finishes in 35 career tries. Very good at this level.
Picks Notes #6 Flash n' Dance Tired in the G3 Mint Julep at Churchill last out after two straight wins at Indiana Grand and three straight overall; a different mare on turf as she's three or four and is the one to beat here. #2 Bloody Mary Mornin Scored in her last two and has been in good form since November; strong finisher. #1 Savvy Shipman Didn't make up ground but improved position to third in her latest; has performed well in some good races and fits with these. Race Summary Flash n' Dance runs her best races on turf and won both starts over this course; should be difficult to beat at this level.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia Downs
Assiniboia Downs - Race 4 Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 61 • Purse: $9,400 • Post: 9:05P FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. PUCKER is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PUCKER: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equiba se Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LITE MY FIRE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PUCKER LITE MY FIRE
Unknown Running Style: TWISTED OLIVER (20/1) [Jockey: Mangalee Richard - Trainer: Cizik Larry].
Line
Class
Speed
FigurePUCKER Front-runner LITE MY FIRE Front-runner CHICAGO ROLL Alternator/Trailer BENROY Alternator/Trailer WITT'S GIRL Alternator/Non-contender MASTER SLAM Alternator/Non-contender PEB Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Prairie Meadows - Race #8 - Post: 6:59pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 82
Rating:
#5 UNION STATION (ML=4/1)
UNION STATION - Trainer Pride moves this horse down the class scale to face a weaker class today. Look for a good effort racing against these lower level horses.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BOATING PARTY (ML=2/1), #3 HERZEN (ML=7/2), #4 SAND WALKER (ML=6/1),
BOATING PARTY - Hasn't raced or had any workouts since Jun 13th. Not much value on this probable favorite. HERZEN - If you keep playing these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be let down often. SAND WALKER - I can't play this frequent non-winner. Gets the assignment done once in a while. This vulnerable equine ran a substandard speed figure in the last race. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat in today's event running that number.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #5 UNION STATION on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Skip SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 73
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 12 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 6 EKATI CHAMPAGNE 4/1
# 7 SAMURAI LEGACY 10/1
# 9 ANOTHER SOFTBALL 3/1
EKATI CHAMPAGNE is my choice. The speed rating of 65 from his latest race looks formidable in here. SAMURAI LEGACY - Will most likely compete quite well in the early speed contest which bodes well with this field. Has been racing soundly and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. ANOTHER SOFTBALL - Has very good Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet for this race. Should be considered in here if only for the very good Equibase Speed Fig garnered in the last contest.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $17500 Class Rating: 71
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 1 BRIDGEKEEPER 9/5
# 3 IMTHEPRINCE 7/2
# 7 ALTMEISTER 12/1
BRIDGEKEEPER has a very good shot to take this race. With Bermudez getting the mount, watch out for this pony. With a very good 70 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. Overall the speed figures of this pony look very strong in this race. IMTHEPRINCE - Will probably compete admirably in the pace battle which bodes well with this group. Is a solid contender - given the 71 speed figure from his most recent race. ALTMEISTER - He has competitive class ratings, averaging 80, and has to be considered in here. One of the most favorable win percentages between this jock and trainer make this gelding dangerous.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Mountaineer Park - Race #7 - Post: 9:30pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,100 Class Rating: 77
Rating:
#5 SLIPPY (ML=2/1)
SLIPPY - This gelding is in top form right now. Finished first last time out and comes back quickly. That 74 fig this gelding garnered in his last event tells me he's a key player this time around.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SIDE CAR (ML=9/5), #1 CIGAR BOX (ML=4/1), #4 GRAZED MY BISCUITS (ML=9/2),
SIDE CAR - The morning-line choice is suspect here with the lack of drills. The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this thoroughbred as a likely underlay. CIGAR BOX - Today's race is 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance event in the last two months. Not the best of signs. Finished seventh last out. Would have to get better to be in the money in today's event. Doubtful that the speed figure he garnered on May 18th will hold up in this clash. GRAZED MY BISCUITS - Won't be easy for this thoroughbred to beat this bunch off of that last rating. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued contestants list.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #5 SLIPPY to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip
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