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NL games
Miami (40-51) @ Philadelphia (45-45)
Last night’s game was suspended in 10th inning, will be finished before this game is played.
— Lopez is 3-1, 2.74 in his last five starts.
— Marlins are 10-9 in his starts.
— over 6-2 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 4-19
— record in first 5 innings: 7-7-5
— He is 1-1, 3.60 in five starts vs Philly.
— Marlins are 11-16 in their last 27 games.
— Miami is 6-15 in last 21 road games.
— over 7-2-1 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 22-91
— record in first 5 innings: 34-40-17
— Wheeler is 2-2, 2.41 in his last six starts.
— Phillies are 10-8 in his starts.
— under 6-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 5-18
— record in first 5 innings: 6-7-5
— He is 8-3, 1.74 in 16 starts vs Miami.
— Phillies are 8-4 in their last 12 games.
— Phillies are 25-17 at home, 20-28 on road.
— over 9-1 last ten games.
— scored run in first inning: 31-90
— record in first 5 innings: 36-34-20
Mets (47-42) @ Pittsburgh (36-56)
— Walker is 1-0, 2.87 in his last three starts.
— Mets are 13-3 in his starts.
— over 5-3 last 8
— allowed run in first inning: 2-16
— record in first 5 innings: 10-4-2
— He is 0-1, 4.09 in two starts vs Pittsburgh.
— Mets are 12-17 in their last 29 games.
— Mets are 3-8 in their last 11 road games.
— over 8-5-1 last 14 games.
— scored run in first inning: 23-89
— record in first 5 innings: 40-38-11
— Brubaker is 0-5, 5.67 in his last six starts.
— Pirates are 4-12 in his starts.
— under 6-2-1 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 5-16
— record in first 5 innings: 24-10-2
— He gave up 6 runs in 5 IP, in one start vs New York.
— Pirates won seven of last ten games.
— Pittsburgh is 8-6 in its last 14 home games.
— over 9-4 last 13 games
— scored run in first inning: 25-92
— record in first 5 innings: 28-51-13
San Diego (54-40) @ Washington (42-48)
Last night’s game was suspended; there was a shooting outside the stadium during the game. No idea if this games will be played or not, but if it is, obviously last night’s suspended game will be finished before this one is played.
— Musgrove is 0-1, 4.78 in his last five starts.
— Padres are 9-8 in his starts.
— over 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 4-17
— record in first 5 innings: 6-8-3
— He is 0-2, 6.75 in 4 games (3 starts) vs Washington.
— San Diego won last nite’s game, 24-8.
— Padres are 5-7 in their last 12 games.
— San Diego is 5-12 in its last 17 road games.
— under 3-1 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 28-94
— record in first 5 innings: 36-42-16
— Scherzer is 3-0, 3.45 in his last six starts.
— Washington is 9-8 in his starts.
— under 11-6 (0-3 last 3)
— allowed run in first inning: 3-16
— record in first 5 innings: 7-5-5
— He gave up 7 runs in 3.2 IP vs San Diego last week.
— Washington lost 10 of its last 12 games.
— Nationals lost their last five home games.
— over 6-2 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 30-89
— record in first 5 innings: 35-35-19
Milwaukee (55-39) @ Cincinnati (48-44)
— Burnes is 2-0, 2.59 in his last seven starts.
— Milwaukee is 7-8 in his starts.
— over 5-0 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 3-15
— record in first 5 innings: 8-3-4
— He allowed 6 runs in 16 IP, in 10 relief stints vs Cincinnati.
— Brewers lost six of their last ten games.
— Milwaukee is 15-8 in its last 23 road games.
— under 7-3 last ten games.
— scored run in first inning: 32-94
— record in first 5 innings: 43-33-18
— Gray is 1-0, 2.24 in two starts since coming off IL.
— Reds are 6-6 in his starts.
— under 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 1-12
— record in first 5 innings: 2-8-2
— He is 0-0, 3.00 in two starts vs Milwaukee this year.
— Cincinnati won nine of its last 13 games.
— Reds are 10-6 in last 16 home games.
— under 10-4 last 14 home games
— scored run in first inning: 25-92
— record in first 5 innings: 38-39-15
San Francisco (58-33) @ St Louis (45-47)
— Cueto is 0-2, 7.36 in his last two starts.
— Giants are 8-6 in his starts.
— under 6-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 4-18
— record in first 5 innings: 6-7-1
— He is 7-10, 4.00 in 25 starts vs St Louis.
— Giants won five of their last six games.
— Giants are 6-4 in last ten road games.
— Under is 11-4 in their last 15 road games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-91
— record in first 5 innings: 51-28-12
— LeBlanc is 0-2, 2.77 in three starts.
— Cardinals are 1-2 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-1-2
— He is 3-1, 3.22 in 8 games (5 starts) vs San Francisco.
— Cardinals are 9-6 in last 15 games.
— St Louis is 5-1 in its last six home games.
— Under is 17-9-2 in their last 28 games.
— scored run in first inning: 29-92
— record in first 5 innings: 37-38-17
Cubs (46-46) @ Arizona (26-68)
— Davies is 0-2, 4.73 in his last three starts.
— Cubs are 10-9 in his starts.
— under 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 5-19
— record in first 5 innings: 7-8-4
— He is 4-2, 3.44 in six starts vs Arizona.
— Cubs lost 19 of last 27 games.
— Chicago is 2-9 in its last 11 road games.
— Over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-92
— record in first 5 innings: 40-40-12
— CSmith is 0-4, 8.50 in his last four starts.
— Arizona is 1-8 in his starts.
— under 5-4
— allowed run in first inning: 3-9
— record in first 5 innings: 1-7-1
— He is 0-0, 2.25 in two starts vs Chicago.
— Arizona is 10-52 in its last 62 games.
— Arizona is 3-8 in its last 11 home games.
— over 4-3 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 15-94
— record in first 5 innings: 34-54-6
Dodgers (58-35) @ Colorado (40-53)
— Price is 0-0, 1.86 in four opens (9.1 IP).
— Dodgers are 2-2 in his starts.
— under 4-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2
— He is 1-2, 5.18 in 6 games (3 starts) vs Colorado.
— Dodgers are 5-4 in last nine games.
— Dodgers are 7-6 in last 13 road games.
— over 8-5-2 last 15 road games
— scored run in first inning: 28-93
— record in first 5 innings: 48-30-15
— Gray is 2-0, 2.35 in his last four starts.
— Rockies are 7-9 in his starts.
— under 3-0 last three
— allowed run in first inning: 6-16
— record in first 5 innings: 6-6-4
— He is 0-1, 4.00 in two starts vs Los Angeles this year.
— Colorado is 15-12 in its last 27 games.
— Rockies are 31-19 at home, 9-34 on road.
— under 12-3 last 15 games.
— scored run in first inning: 26-93
— record in first 5 innings: 36-43-14
AL games
Minnesota (39-52) @ Detroit (42-51)
— Happ is 0-3, 11.91 in his last five road starts.
— Twins are 7-9 in his starts.
— over 12-1 last 13
— allowed run in first inning: 7-16
— record in first 5 innings: 6-8-2
— He is 1-0, 3.27 in two starts vs Detroit this year.
— Minnesota won four of its last six games.
— Twins are 1-7 in last eight road games.
— over 8-5 last 13 road games
— scores run in first inning: 33-91
— record in first 5 innings: 27-44-20
— Peralta is 2-0, 1.06 in his last three starts.
— Tigers are 2-3 in his starts.
— over 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 4-1
— He 1-3, 5.18 in 18 games (4 starts) vs Minnesota.
— Detroit lost four of its last six games.
— Detroit is 7-3 in last ten home games.
— over 22-10-1 last 33 games
— scored run in first inning: 19-93
— record in first 5 innings: 7-2-1 last ten at home.
Boston (56-36) @ Bronx (47-43)
— Perez is 3-1, 3.52 in his last five starts.
— Red Sox are 11-7 in his starts.
— under 8-3-1 last dozen
— allowed run in first inning: 6-18
— record in first 5 innings: 10-7-3
— He is 2-3, 7.08 in 8 starts vs New York.
— Red Sox are 7-1 vs Bronx this season.
— Boston is 19-11 in its last 30 games.
— Red Sox are 6-8 in last 14 road games.
— under 6-1-1 last eight road games
— scored run in first inning: 32-92
— record in first 5 innings: 43-34-15
— Taillon is 3-0, 3.28 in his last four starts.
— New York is 7-10 in his starts.
— over 5-1-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 3-17
— record in first 5 innings: 9-6-2
— He is 0-0, 2.19 in two starts vs Boston.
— New York won six of its last eight games.
— New York is 3-5 in its last eight home games.
— under 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 24-90
— record in first 5 innings: 37-36-17
Baltimore (29-62) @ Kansas City (37-54)
— Harvey is 1-1, 5.49 in his last four starts.
— Orioles are 8-10 in his starts.
— over 4-1-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 6-18
— record in first 5 innings: 9-8-1
— He is 2-1, 3.57 in four starts vs Kansas City.
— Orioles are 5-9 in last 14 games.
— Baltimore is 16-32 on the road, 13-30 at home.
— over is 39-16-1 in their last 56 games.
— scored run in first inning: 28-91
— record in first 5 innings: 27-49-15
— Hernandez is making his first ‘21 start.
— He was 0-1, 4.91 in 5 games (3 starts) LY.
— This year, he allowed 12 runs in 21.2 IP in 12 relief stints
— He hasn’t pitched against Baltimore.
— Royals lost 27 of their last 35 games.
— Royals are 6-5 in their last 11 home games.
— over 4-1 last five games.
— scores run in first inning: 18-91
— record in first 5 innings: 33-46-12
Texas (35-56) @ Toronto (46-42)
— Allard is 0-4, 6.17 in his last four starts.
— Texas is 1-7 in his starts.
— under 6-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-8
— record in first 5 innings: 1-6-1
— He gave up 3 runs in 5.2 IP, in one start vs Toronto.
— Foltynewicz is 1-1, 3.98 in his last three starts.
— Texas is 3-9 in his last 12 starts.
— over 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 5-18
— record in first 5 innings: 3-11-4
— He is 3-1, 4.67 in 6 games (5 starts) vs Toronto.
— Texas is 2-6 in its last eight games.
— Texas is 4-21 in its last 25 road games.
— over 10-2-1 last 13 road games.
— scored run in first inning: 19-91
— record in first 5 innings: 31-47-13
— Ryu is 3-1, 4.37 in his last four starts.
— Toronto is 10-7 in his starts.
— over 7-2 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 6-17
— record in first 5 innings: 9-7-1
— He gave up 2 runs in 7 IP, in his one start vs Texas
— Matz is 1-2, 7.02 in his last four starts.
— Toronto is 3-8 in his last 11 starts.
— over 7-2 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 1-15
— record in first 5 innings: 8-5-2
— He gave up a run in 6.1 IP, in his one start vs Texas
— Toronto is 2-5 in its last seven games.
— Blue Jays are 3-1 in last four home games.
— Over is 8-6 in their last 14 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 29-88
— record in first 5 innings: 9-2-2 last 13 at home
Houston (56-37) @ White Sox (55-36)
— Valdez is 1-1, 5.73 in his last four starts.
— Astros are 7-2 in his starts.
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 2-9
— record in first 5 innings: 6-2-1
— He gave up 3 runs in 7 IP vs Chicago June 19.
— Astros lost four of last six games.
— Astros are 11-3 in last 14 road games.
— under 6-2-1 last nine road games
— scored run in first inning: 31-93
— record in first 5 innings: 48-31-14
— Rodon is 1-1, 3.52 in his last four starts
— Chicago is 10-5 in his starts.
— under 9-3 last 12
— allowed run in first inning: 2-15
— record in first 5 innings: 6-4-5
— He is 1-0, 1.83 in six starts vs Houston.
— Chicago won six of its last seven games.
— White Sox are 5-1 in last six home games.
— over 7-2 last nine home games.
— scored run in first inning: 26-91
— record in first 5 innings: 50-25-16
Seattle (49-44) @ Angels (46-45)
— Gilbert is 3-0, 2.38 in his last six starts.
— Mariners are 8-2 in his starts.
— over 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 1-10
— record in first 5 innings: 6-3-1
— He gave up a run in 5 IP in June 6 start vs Anaheim.
— Seattle won 18 of its last 26 games.
— Seattle is 6-3 in its last nine road games.
— over 12-4 last 16 road games
— scored run in first inning: 29-93
— record in first 5 innings: 43-43-7
— Sandoval is 2-1, 3.77 in his last five starts.
— Angels are 4-1 in his last five starts.
— over 6-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-9
— record in first 5 innings: 4-3-2
— He is 0-2, 3.46 in two starts vs Seattle this year.
— Halos are 8-4 in last 12 games.
— Angels are 6-2 in last eight home games.
— over 23-10-1 last 34 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-91
— record in first 5 innings: 40-40-11
Cleveland (46-43) @ Oakland (53-41)
— Plesac gave up 3 runs in 4 IP (55 PT) in his first starts off the IL.
— Indians are 6-5 in his starts.
— over 3-0 last three
— allowed run in first inning: 3-11
— record in first 5 innings: 4-6-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Oakland.
— Cleveland lost 13 of its last 19 games.
— Indians lost six of last seven road games.
— over 36-19-1 last 56 games
— scores run in first inning: 29-89
— record in first 5 innings: 33-42-14
— Bassitt is 5-1, 2.86 in his last seven starts.
— A’s are 13-3 in his last 16 starts.
— under 10-6 last 16
— allowed run in first inning: 4-19
— record in first 5 innings: 11-3-5
— He is 0-1, 4.24 in three starts vs Cleveland.
— A’s won four of their last six games.
— Oakland is 3-5 in its last eight home games.
— Under is 12-7 in their last 19 games.
— scored run in first inning: 30-94
— record in first 5 innings: 41-36-17
Interleague games
Tampa Bay (54-38) @ Atlanta (45-46)
— Hill is 0-2, 4.91 in his last three starts.
— Rays are 10-8 in his starts.
— over 11-7
— allowed run in first inning: 3-18
— record in first 5 innings: 9-4-5
— He is 5-0, 1.74 in 9 games (7 starts) vs Atlanta.
— Tampa Bay won seven of its last nine games.
— Rays are 2-11 in last 13 road games.
— under is 4-2 in last six games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-92
— record in first 5 innings: 36-34-22
— Smyly is 5-0, 1.98 in his last five starts.
— Braves are 8-7 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 2-15
— record in first 5 innings: 9-4-2
— He is 1-1, 4.96 in 6 games (3 starts) vs Tampa Bay.
— Braves won four of their last six games
— Atlanta is 8-4 in its last 12 home games.
— over 7-2 in last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 32-91
— record in first 5 innings: 47-32-12
Sunday’s umpires:
Tex-Tor- Under is 6-2 in last 8 Schuerwater games.
Favorite won 6 of last 8 Additon games.
Clev-A’s- Over is 7-3 in last ten Morales games.
Balt-KC- Under is 6-1 in last seven Hoberg games.
Bos-NY- Over is 6-3 in last nine Gonzalez games.
Hst-Chi- Under is 6-1 in last seven Barry games.
Sea-LAA- Last five West games went over total.
Chi-Az- Home side is 9-3 in last 12 Drake games.
Mia-Phil- Over is 4-1 in last five Cuzzi games.
NY-Pitt- Favorites won 4 of last 5 Riggs games.
SD-Wash- Underdog won 5 of last 7 Segal games.
Mil-Cin- Under is 7-3-1 in last 11 LBarrett games.
SF-StL- Home side is 7-2 in last nine Tichenor games.
LA-Colo- Under is 6-4 in last ten Blaser games.
TB-Atl- Over is 6-2 in last eight Johnson games.
Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis
July 18, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse completes the weekend with a 14-race card. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 11
5-Three G's Panther (7-1)-Looking for a solid price and this Brink trainee returns to Stickney after being off since 5-8. Qualified nicely in Springfield, could be ready to show improvement and will respect the connections.
7-Princess Mooss (5/2)-Has lacked the knockout punch but has faced better. This is a soft spot and it's a good time to be forwardly placed and take a rare picture.
9-Fire Shine (5-1)-Todd Warren claimed this filly on July 10 for $13,600. Comes off a nice try and does step-up but this isn't a field of All-Stars. Could reward the new owner and win at first asking. Should also benefit from an experienced driver.
Race 12
4-Allbeastnobeauty (9-1)-This is the 5th start off the bench and raced better last week at this class when coming
back in 8 days. Todd Warren trains and drives, his small stable has a win rate of 45% over the last 30 days.
5-Tempus Seelster (7-1)-There could be a few leaving and if the pace is hot chances for success go up for this mare. Leonard steered in last and he sticks. Comes off a rough trip, and was hung out. This time a different plan could be in place and the price should be right.
7-Rock It Out (7-1)-This mare is trip dependent. If this pace is brisk she may roll by down the lane if Wilfong can work a smooth trip. Will use a couple of closers and banking on #9 leaving to set the tone.
9-Maggie Rhee (3-1)-Broke poorly in last but it didn't matter. Circled the field and rolled the back half in 53.4 to take a picture versus most of this field. Looking for an alert start and should have a big shot at making it 4 in a row.
Race 13
3-Modern Day Prince (3-1)-Tried to wire the field in last and faded down the lane. Moves inside from post 7 and should be in play from start to finish.
5-Fishyriggins (5/2)-Joins the Husted barn and expecting the solid form that has been shown all meet to continue. Should be on the engine or enjoying a pocket ride and either can lead to a winning performance.
Race 14
5-Pootie Cat (9/2)-Came close to winning for the 2nd time in the last 25 starts. Now makes the 2nd start for the Herrera barn who has been cold and Warren steers again. Got on the engine in last and that was a new strategy. Looking for additional improvement and a big try.
7-Illini Loretta (8-1)-Smoked the back half in 55.3 and just missed at 45-1. Won't be that price again but should offer some value. Will benefit from a lively pace and that could happen with the chalk starting from post 10 and a few others could leave from the inside.
10-Sweet But Psycho (2-1)-Won last week at this class from post 9 and the time before from post 8. Not sure Husted can work the same magic from post 10 but best to not dismiss.
0.50 Late Pick 4
5,7,9/4,5,7,9/3,5/5,7,10
Total Bet=$36
Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - Sunday, July 18, 2021
July 18, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C
Use: 2-Falcon Ex; 3-You’re My Boy Kat; 6-Eddiespaghetti
Forecast: The opener is a bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for 2-year-olds that requires a lot of guesswork. Spread as deeply as you can afford to in rolling exotic play. Eddiespaghetti is bred for speed (Goldencents), gets F. Prat, and shows a series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs that indicate at least some ability. The D. O’Neill-trained homebred earns top billing by default. O’Neill’s other starter, You’re My Boy Kat, has the benefit of a prior run, a third place finish with a modest speed figure in a maiden $50,000 affair earlier this month in Orange County. The Tale of Ekati gelding has a right to improve, and not much of it will be needed to be very competitive with this group. Falcon Ex is a first-timer by Exaggerator from the K. Desormeaux barn with a so-so work tab, but many debut runners from this stable run better than they work, so we’ll toss him in as well. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Dark Hedges; 3-Hold Me Black; 6-Cajun Treasure; 7-Red Valor
Forecast: We’ve always believed that Cajun Treasure was a much better one-turn horse than a router, and today the J. Mullins-trained gelding gets a chance to verify the theory in this six and one-half furlong affair for $20,000 claimers. Freshened since late April and with a steady recent series of workouts, the son of Treasure Beach retains regular rider U. Rispoli and appears capable of producing the last run. Worth noting is his record over the Del Mar dirt surface (1-for-1). Red Valorr gets a lovely outside draw and should have every chance to repeat on the raise after easily dispatching of a softer (nw-2) $16,000 field at Los Alamitos in his second off the claim for D. O’Neill. The bad news is his career record at Del Mar (8-0-0-0). Hopefully, he’s a better type now. Churchill Downs invader Hold Me Black takes a substantial class drop in his local bow while seeking some of that lucrative ship-and-win money. A repeat of his race before last – a win in a $20,000 starter’s allowance sprint – could easily be good enough to win. Also, you should consider including – at least as a backup – Dark Hedges, first or second in seven of 13 career starts including a win over the Del Mar main track. The only real knock is the dreaded rail post position, a huge concern for sure.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 5-Anonymously; 7-Gypsy Blu; 8-Loud Loud Music
Forecast: We’ll try to survive and advance tripling the race in this five furlong grass grab bag turf for $32,000 claiming fillies and mares. Loud Loud Music, a $25,000 D. O’Neill claim, missed in a photo last month in her first outing since December and has every right to produce a forward move today for her new connections. Unplaced in two starts over the Del Mar turf course (both routes), she’s always been most comfortable as a pace-stalking sprinter and with “win rider” A, Cedillo staying aboard the daughter of Tizbud projects to enjoy an ideal trip and have every chance. Gypsy Blue, fresh from a game win in an allowance/optional $20,000 claimer at Santa Anita, goes for new trainer R. Hess, Jr. off a claim but loses F. Prat, who opts for Invincibella. She drops 6 lbs. off that victory, switches to U. Rispoli, and shows a prior win over this course and distance. That said, five furlongs might be a tad sharp for her. Anonymously exits a tougher race and is realistically returned to the claiming ranks. Like our top pick, she’ll settle into a stalking/pace pressure position and should remain a strong factor throughout.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade:
Single: 8-Sally Stanford
Forecast: Sally Stanford has plenty of zip but maybe not a whole lot of stick, so this drop into the maiden $50,000 ranks appears warranted for the S. Miyadi-trained juvenile who is likely to be taxed when the distances begin to increase. Against this group she should be long gone based on the kind of zip she displayed when leading the way but then being worn down late vs. straight maidens at Los Alamitos last time out. The number she earned in that race is considerably faster than par for this level, so you can take the short price, single her in rolling exotic play, or simply pass the race.
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RACE 5. Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Go Big Blue Nation; 5-Star of Africa
Forecast: Most mini-marathon grass events for older fillies and mares in California are carded for stakes performers; this one, however, is first-level allowance event that should be made to order for Go Big Blue Nation. The long-winded daughter of Animal Kingdom exits a pair of graded events in which she ran reasonably well (fourth in both), and against this group from a good inside draw with F. Prat aboard she should have her chance to regain her winning form. Star of Africa looks like the controlling speed and if not respected could take this field a very long way. Overmatched in the Santa Barbara S.-G2 last time out but properly spotted today, the P. Gallagher-trained filly has been freshened since early May and shows a good, steady series of workouts leading up to this race. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics while preferring Go Big Blue Nation on top.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Jan Jan Can; 2-Dozo; 8-Miss Alegria
Forecast: Miss Alegria makes her first start since November in a modest restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming sprint and while her condition is a question she shows a few positive factors in her chart that makes her the one to beat. The lightly-raced 5-year-old mare gets the coveted outside draw over a main track that heavily promotes the outside lanes, has a prior win over this Del Mar dirt oval, boasts speed figures that are good enough to win, and a jockey-trainer team (J. Hernandez/V. Garcia) that has excellent stats. The daughter of Munnings projects to settle just off the leaders outside and then rally wide when called upon. Dozo should be the quickest of the quick and will take them as far as she can. She got cooked in a :21 1/5 pace duel vs. tougher last time out and paid the price late but shouldn’t have to go anywhere near the fast to establish the pace against this group. Jan Jan Can, second in a similar affair with a career top speed figure in mid-May, returns with a healthy series of recent workouts to indicate fitness. The problem is her rail draw but if she can get outrun early and then maneuver to the outside the daughter of Grazen could have a decent look at it.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Home Screen; 2-Neptune’s Storm
Forecast: Neptune’s Storm may have been a tad short when a narrow second at odds-on in the American S.-G3 at Santa Anita in his first outing since September but should be fit and ready for this year’s renewal of the restricted Wickerr S. over a mile on grass. Winless in four starts over the local lawn but each time running a winning race in defeat, the veteran gelding should be able to take full advantage of a race flow that promises soft early fractions, and in fact wouldn’t be surprising to see the P. Miller-trained 5-year-old inherit the role as the controlling speed. In the frame in 16 of 20 career starts, ‘Storm always has been thoroughly genuine and consistent. Home Screen won five of six in Brazil in races that are difficult to quantify, but the N. Drysdale-trained import looked pretty nice in a workout over the Del Mar turf course last week and could be competitive on this circuit at this level. From what we can gather he’s basically a stretch-running type, so we’ll use him as a back-up or a saver in rolling exotic play while reserving the main punch for Neptune’s Storm.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-Ko Olina; 8-Bonita Leona
Forecast: Ko Olina technically is still a maiden and therefore eligible to this race, but the daughter of Stanford crossed the wire first in a similar event at Santa Anita last month by a nose over Eda (the pair 13 lengths clear of the rest) before being disqualified for drifting out in the final stages. It was actually a pretty fast race for state-bred for juvenile fillies so if she runs anywhere close to that outing today she’ll probably be home free. Worth including as a back-up is the Northern California shipper Bonita Leona, certainly bred to be quick (Smiling Tiger) and showing a series of decent drills over the Golden Gate Fields all-weather surface before vanning down for trainer A. Mathis. With F. Prat taking the call, we have to assume she can run at least a little bit.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Angelcents; 5-Thrilling; 10-Anna Fantastic
Forecast: This is a strong race for this level, a non-winners of two turf sprint for fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Thrilling won at first asking and did it the right way, setting the pace under pressure and then finding more when called upon through the lane. The daughter of Uncle Mo has trained steadily since and strikes us as decent type who can dish it out and take it, too. Anna Fantastic was a beaten favorite in a hot race in Arcadia last time out but her state-bred score two runs back charts well here and she has some very fast races to go back to earlier this year. Away since April but clearly capable of firing a big shot fresh, the daughter of Cyclotron shows a bullet :46 2/5 half mile drill 10 days ago to have her on edge. Midwest shipper Angelcents makes her West Coast debut after being claimed for $20,000 out of what was her fourth consecutive victory. This clearly is a tougher assignment but she’s competitive on speed figures and may be the quickest of the quick.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Tizamagician
Forecast: After a blowout nine-length win in the 12-furlong Tokyo City S.-G3 at Santa Anita in April, Tizamagican was sent east and finished a distant second behind the sensational Lone Rock in the Brooklyn S.-G1 at this same marathon distance at Belmont Park, but has nobody even remotely that good to worry about in this year’s edition of the Cougar II S.-G3. A versatile sort capable of winning on the lead or from a stalking position, he retains F. Prat, who, from his cozy outside post, can dictate the race flow and move when he wants to. First or second in three of five previous outings over the Del Mar main track, the son of Tiznow shows a bullet five furlong workout in :59 2/5 just five days ago to have him fit and ready. At the short price he deserves to be, the R. Mandella-trained colt is a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 11: Post: 7:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Javanica; 4-Burgoo Alley; 7-Bleu Ballon
Forecast: The finale is a strong first-level allowance middle distance turf event restricted to 3-year-old fillies. Several of these have competed successfully in stakes races or will in the near future. Javanica missed by a head to subsequent Preakness S.-G1 winner Rombauer in the El Camino Real Derby up north in February but was below form in a pair of graded stakes races since. Freshened, training well, and facing considerably easier foes today, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro should be capable of getting a confidence building win today with the switch to F. Prat. Bleu Ballon has to prove she can handle two turns – her one prior attempt was disappointing – but she’s a better type now and has responded well in her last two outings with a change to patient tactics. If she can settle early, get some cover and be produced late, the daughter of Air Force Blue will be tough. Burgoo Alley is progressing nicely for P. D’Amato, and after graduating in good style sprinting last month she tackles tougher while stretching out to a distance she showed she could handle earlier this year in Ireland. It would not be out of the question to see her make the running and keep on going. These are the three we’ll be using, with Javanica getting top billing.
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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Sunday, July 18, 2021
July 18, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 5-Mischief Mogul; 7-Shipsational
Forecast: Shipsational brought $210,000 at auction last spring in Ocala after breezing a quarter mile in a sizzling 20 4/5 seconds while displaying a nice, long, athletic stride. Low profile connections notwithstanding, the son of Midshipman gets the edge on top from a cozy outside draw in a state-bred maiden juvenile sprint that doesn’t appear to have a whole lot in it. Mischief Mogul is a debuting Into Mischief colt from the T. Pletcher barn, and while the workouts don’t jump off the page he’s a major contender based on pedigree and connections. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Shipsational.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Charleston Strong; 8-Amano; 10-Partner’s Hope
Forecast: Here’s a competitive maiden-claiming turf router with several possibilities. We’ll use three and hope to get by. Charleston Strong stretches out again, lands a good inside post, adds blinkers, and earned a career top speed figure last time out when a solid third in a tougher straight maiden sprint in his first outing since November. A similar effort today should earn the son of Flatter his diploma. Amano, another comebacker (away for 10 months), also makes that always-significant class drop from maiden special weight to maiden claiming and is a first-time gelding as well, so the son of Temple City is a major player and a “must use” for the high percentage C. Brown/I. Ortiz, Jr. combo. The work tab should have him plenty fit. Partner’s Hope is bred for grass (More Than Ready) and gets his first taste of the sod in his second off a layoff for K. McPeek`. He’s a bit soft in the speed figure department but lightly raced and eligible to step forward considerably with the surface switch.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: B-
Single: 5-Get the Candy
Forecast: This first-level allowance turf sprint for state-bred fillies and mares is a difficult affair in which nothing would surprise. Big ticket players may choose to spread deeply; those with lesser budgets should consider taking a stand with Get the Candy. The M. Nevin-trained filly makes her second start off a layoff after graduating in good style in her sophomore debut over the Belmont Park turf course. Lightly-raced with further improvement likely, the daughter of Twirling Candy is facing much more early speed today but has numbers that fit and may be capable of repeating even if relegated to a stalker’s role. On paper she’s as good as any and better than most.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Misty Veil; 6-Honor Hop
Forecast: Misty Veil was nosed out in a first-level allowance race at Churchill Downs last time out and today shows up in a softer starter’s allowance affair that should be well within her capabilities. The lightly-raced daughter of Tonalist picks up I. Ortiz, Jr. and seems likely to fold in just behind the leaders to secure the type of close-to-the-pace trip that brings out her best. Honor Hop has figures that fit but might be most comfortable on grass or over a wet track. We’ll include her on our ticket as a back-up or a saver but assign the main punch to Misty Veil.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Hot Rod Rumble; 5-Stevie; 6-Cozzie’s Attitude
Forecast: This maiden sprint for New York-bred juveniles is a split of the first race and appears to be the tougher of the two. Stevie vans up from Pimlico where the son of Bustin Stones put together a string of good workouts that should have him fit and ready. From a barn that does well with debut runner, this colt recently produced a bullet half mile gate work in 47 seconds flat that indicates he has the speed his pedigree suggests he should. In an open affair, we’ll put him on top. Hot Rod Rumble previewed in 10 1/5 seconds at Timonium before bringing $325,000 through the ring, so you know he’s very well regarded. A strong, powerful colt from the first crop of Midnight Storm, the S. Asmussen-trained colt hasn’t advertised himself in local drills, but we suspect he’ll show his stuff in the afternoon. Cozzie’s Attitude has shown some ability in workouts at Belmont Park and lands J. Rosario, so we’ll toss him in as well.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Fortuity; 6-Matta; 9-Summer to R emember
Forecast: Fortuity arrives from Churchill Downs fresh from earning a career top speed figure when finishing a close fifth while facing tougher company and today drops for the money run in this inner turf course miler for restricted (nw-3) $50,000 claimers. He prefers to settle early and produce a late run and with some help up front should make some serious noise in the final furlong. Matta finished with interest when third off a long layoff in a turf sprint prep at Pimlico last month and should be set to stretch out for the first time today and secure a comfortable pace-prompting trip. His pedigree suggests he’ll improve going long and at age five with just seven previous start the son of Take Charge Indy may be set for a career top effort. Summer to Remember is a strong fit on speed figures but just failed at 50 cents on the dollar in a modest affair at Monmouth Park without any excuse, so he may be a hard one to trust. We’ll use him on a ticket or two for protection, but that’s it.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Mezcal; 9-Perfect Grace
-Forecast: Perfect Grace had no excuse when beaten into second at 4/5 in early May at Gulfstream Park, but she did finish more than 15 lengths clear of the three others in the field and not much more will be needed to break her maiden today in a seven furlong sprint for older fillies and mares. Drawn nicely outside and likely to draft into a cozy stalking position, the daughter of Tapit really shouldn’t miss this chance unless there’s a newcomer in the field with better than average ability. Mezcal may be just that and is the one to fear most. Purchased as a yearling for $625,000, the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile has done some good work in the morning for T. Pletcher, with three bullet works appearing on her tab. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B+
Use: 3-Pleasure Luck; 8-Awesome Debate
Forecast: There appears to be two main players in this state-bred allowance sprint for fillies and mares with preference on top to Awesome Debate. She’s a first-off-the-claim for D. Gargan (an amazing 40% with this angle) and from her outside draw can dictate the race flow by either popping and going or stalking and pouncing. A winner of six of 13 career starts, the 5-year-old daughter of Honorable Dillon seems the solid pick. Pleasure Luck is a bit slower on numbers than ‘Debate, but she did earn a career top figure when bravely winning an entry-level dash at Belmont Park in her most recent start. She likes to settle in the second flight and then kick home and with just six career starts (and never off the board) she’s always been a genuine and consistent sort. Most of our action will got to Awesome Debate but we’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Mischiefful; 4-Goin’ Good; 10-Illegal Smile
Forecast: Mischiefful crushed a first-level allowance field in an off-the-turf sprint at Churchill Downs in her most recent outing, earning a stakes-quality, career top number. Today we’ll find out if the daughter of Into Mischief can do the same on grass. A bullet recent workout over a sloppy local main track tells us she’s maintaining her form, so if she breaks cleanly she can be on the lead or just off it, wherever she’s most comfortable. Goin’ Good and Illegal Smile just finished one-two in a good turf sprint in Kentucky last month and they face each other again today as the ones to fear most. ‘Good increased her record to three wins from six starts with a pace-pressing trip outside; today she might find herself stalking the leaders while enjoying a ground-saving trip. Illegal Smile, drawn outside the other speed, mostly likely will settle in mid-pack and then attempt to produce a late rally. She’s never won that way, but this looks like a good spot to experiment.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: X
Single: 7-Shining Colors
Forecast: The nightcap is bottom-rung maiden claiming main track sprint that really should be won by Shining Colors. Second in both of her starts following a long layoff, the R. Falcone, Jr.-trained filly was more than three lengths clear of the rest last time out over a sloppy track when facing tougher foes, so while she’s not particularly fast on speed figures nothing else in here is, either. Actually, her best figure was earned two runs back on a fast track at Monmouth Park, an effort that if repeated today should be more than good enough. In a race that probably should be left alone or approached with caution, we can make her a rolling exotic single or if price considerations dictate, pass the race.
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Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Gulfstream
July 18, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
Tonalist’s Shape earned a place on the list of 3-year-old fillies during the 2020 Championship Meet at Gulfstream Park as she won three straight over the surface, most notably the Grade 3 Forward Gal and the Grade 2 Davona Dale.
That was the peak in her career, and she gets her second chance off a layoff when she faces allowance optional claiming opponents to kick off Gulfstream’s Late Pick 4 on Sunday.
Tonalist’s Shape closed a bit of ground when she ended 2020 with a fifth in the Grade 2 Raven Run at Keeneland on Oct. 17 and came off eight-month layoff with a somewhat lackluster fifth at seven furlongs and under the conditions she sees today. Filing that under “needed that one,” we can expect a much better effort in her second off the layoff, and it looks like the Saffie Joseph, Jr., trainee can finish this one-mile race as she did last year. Since her return race, she has three solid works and can get back to good form.
She’s a single on the $48 suggested Late Pick 4 ticket, and getting that first leg with a single can bring out a lot of optimism the rest of the way, as the ticket uses a 1x4x4x6 approach. Or it can make you focus on the Pick 3. We’re obviously looking at the former, but the latter will do, if needed.
Here’s a look at what’s on the Pick 4 ticket:
7th Race (4:13 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming)
TONALIST’S SHAPE has a lot more in the tank than she showed last time and the pace scenario gives her a good chance to finish well going the mile.
Others on the ticket: None, she’s a single.
8th Race (4:46 p.m. ET, claiming)
COMPLEX SYSTEM ran in a stronger race than this last time and did the big fade in the final quarter. That race went in 1:33 4-5 for the mile, which was just too much for her. She has several races on her form than can give her a big chance going this 7.5-furlong distance.
She does her best on or close to the lead, and that’s where she’s expected to be as she takes a drop in class.
Claiming fillies and mares often make for a strong challenge in handicapping, and that’s the case here as this race looks like a spread event.
Others on the ticket: SPEND BENJAMIN, KRAMDEN, and NEW YORK STYLE.
9th Race (5:19 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming)
WITH VERVE heads a strong group of veterans going seven furlongs, and there’s plenty of quality from which to choose.
He gets the nod due to the late move he often possesses. There will be a legit pace with plenty of runners going for the lead, and that should play into his big rally.
It’s a good race that requires a handful of numbers on the Pick 4 ticket.
Others on the ticket: FRONT LOADED, WANDERING WEST, and PUDDING.
10th Race (5:53 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)
The last leg looks like the most difficult of them all today.
KICK OUT OF JAMS looks competitive today, as she showed progress since her April debut. She was claimed by Mike Maker in her first one and took a class drop. After running eighth, she finished fourth and third. She hasn’t really established a running style and looks like she could adjust to whatever pace is presented in this one.
There are many legit contenders, and this one is a strong challenge.
Others on the ticket: UPTOWN QUEEN, QUIET STRENGTH, RUBY IN THE STARS, TWICEFOURTEEN and HUSTLE QUEEN.
Gulfstream Park 50-cent Late Pick 4 (races 7-10):
7) #6 Tonalist’s Shape.
8) #2 Spend Benjamins, #3 Complex System, #8 Kramden, #9 New York Style.
9) #2 Front Loaded, #3 With Verve, #4 Wandering West, #8 Pudding.
10) #2 Uptown Queen, #3 Quiet Strength, #4 Rubyinthestars, #5 Kick Out the Jams, #8 Twicefourteen, #9 Hustle Queen.
Suggested ticket: 6 with 2-3-8-9 with 2-3-4-8 with 2-3-4-5-8-9 ($48).
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Arlington - Race #3
Arlington - Race #4
Picks Notes #6 Lady Lawyer Gets back to the synthetic footing for the first time in the states, and it's worth noting she's the owner of a 3-for-3 record over similar surfaces in Europe. #5 O'Keeffe She has some good back form over the synthetic, and she might be a bit better in this second start of the year while getting over to the main track. #2 Karak The only synthetic try produced a romping stakes win at Turfway, so there is a chance she freaks while getting back on similar footing. Still, she's probably overbet. Race Summary Lady Lawyer has been hit or miss, but she has generally been competitive when racing outside of stakes company, so perhaps she's got something better to offer here while moving to a surface type over which she is a perfect 3-for-3.
Arlington - Race #8
Picks Notes #3 Better Think Twice He has run pretty evenly through both of the first two starts, but he brings a bullet work with him while getting on the lawn for the first time. The bottom side of the pedigree offers some appeal. Interesting enough that leading rider Loveberry sticks here instead of with the Rivelli he rode last out. #6 Upbeat Melody E. T. Baird is a more than capable replacement for Loveberry, and he's a good fit on this second-timer who can flash some pace out of the gate. #8 Kingdom's Spirite Debuter should get lost on the board, but there is a little bit of speed in the pedigree that might serve her well at first asking. Underneath chance? Race Summary Better Think Twice will need to step forward on the move to the turf, but that seems like a real possibility here for a capable team. Nothing wrong with the leading rider sticking around.
Picks Notes #10 Aka Lioness She was pretty good in her only career turf try when facing cheaper going short, but she stayed well enough going two turns last out to suggest that maybe a turf route is up her alley. #12 Share My Moon She showed some mild late interest when getting on the turf for the first time, and she's cutting the claiming tag in half for this one. Wide draw is a bit of a concern, but she gets a good gate rider up to find position. #7 Missen the Point Thought she had a big claim on the last one, but she was done by the three-eighths pole in her turf route debut. Willing to give her one more chance to get in the picture at a price. Race Summary Aka Lioness might be the right one with the right trip waiting for her today. She should be able to sit right up on the splits and get first jump on any deeper finishing threats.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Del Mar - Race #7
Del Mar - Race #10
Picks Notes #6 Border Town Has a powerful late move on occasion and can benefit from others battling on the front end; can get the trip here. #2 Neptune's Storm Likely to be favored off his second-place finish in the G3 American. Has won one of his last four and has been a big player in several graded races. #7 Majestic Eagle Can be just off the pace and could get first run before the deep closers; dangerous. Race Summary Border Town lacks consistency but he usually runs a big one when the pace set him up for a surge in the final furlong. Mandella runner will be a good price and should not be ignored.
Del Mar - Race #0
Picks Notes #2 Contagion Has won two of three off the claim by Miller and is getting better and better; continues his ascent up to the class ladder. Stretches out to 1.5 miles and should be in the mix throughout. #6 Tizamagician Was second to standout Lone Rock in the G2 Brooklyn at Belmont last out and prior to that crushed G3 Tokyo City foes at Santa Anita; classy and always a big player. #5 Cupid's Claws Beat Tizamagician in the 2020 G3 Tokyo City and loves to be on the front end going long. Race Summary Contagion was a $10,000 claimer early in the year and has improved by leaps and bounds; running his best for Miller and fits here.
Picks Notes #3 Javanica Drops out of graded stakes races and should be a handful at this level. Has enough speed to carve out a good trip just off the pace and can prevail against these. #11 Midnight Diva Was third in the G3 Honeymoon last out and broke her maiden two back; has the speed to overcome her post. #7 Bleu Ballon Closed well in her last two sprints and the only time she tried two turns was in a stakes race; has enough early run to pose a problem for others with a need for the early lead. Race Summary Javanica has been in some difficult spots and gets some class relief in this one; capable of waking up in a big way.
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