Wednesday 8/4/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2021, 06:48 AM

Jeff Siegel's Primed and Ready List (August 4, 2021)

August 4, 2021
Updated every Wednesday, the Primed and Ready List identifies horses that have recorded an outstanding workout within the past seven days and appear ready for a top performance. Workouts originate from Southern California (Santa Anita/Del Mar), New York (Saratoga/Belmont Park) and Florida (Palm Meadows) and can be viewed by clicking the link included in the description or at xbtv.com. Horses are removed following their first race after appearing on the list.

Workouts through August 4, 2021

ENCROACHMENT - (R. Hanson) July 30, Del Mar, 5f, 1:00hg
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Unraced four-year-old gelding broke slowly in company from the gate with Kimmer and Ball Lass (both 5f, 1:01.4hg) but quickly got in gear and easily overtook his workmates without need of urging and then drew far clear after the opening three furlongs, splits of :23.3, :35 flat, :47.2 and 1:00.2 on our watches, mild late coaxing. Bred for much speed and appears to have plenty of it though he’ll need to break better in the afternoon. Should be plenty fit by now.

JESTER CALLS NOJOY - (T. Pletcher) August 1, Saratoga, 4f, :47.3bg
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Broke well in gate drill outside stablemate A Mo Rae (same time) and was even throughout while hard held every step of the way and able to go much faster for T. Pletcher while gearing up for racing debut. Maclean’s Music juvenile filly looks lvery quick and gives every indication of a win early-type. Should be fit enough by now.

MAJOR GENERAL - (T. Pletcher) August 1, Saratoga, 4f, :47.1bg
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Gate drill inside stable mate Bellinger (4f, :47.2bg) nd was clearly best while mostly under wraps every step of the way, finishing about three lengths clear while displaying a smooth, athletic stride under mild coaxing only. Constitution colt brought $420,000 as a yearling and looks the part.

NORTH CAROLINA - (B. Tagg) August 1, Saratoga, 5f, 1:00b
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Broke off far behind Tiz Eternal and Money Merger (both 5f, 1:02.2b) and caught that pair approaching the wire despite being taken in hand and geared down in the final furlong, quite impressive for a once-started 4-year-old maiden gelding. Had one start more than a year ago in a maiden race on turf at Belmont Park and never landed a blow but has to a much better type now for B. Tagg (had been a C. McGaughey last year). Stretch-running type should return soon.

REAL FIRE - (J. Sadler) August 1, Del Mar, 5f, 1:00.1hg
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Unraced 2-year-old filly worked from gate with older Grade-1 winner Flagstaff (same time) and was much quicker early while leading by a few lengths after the opening quarter, was joined by workmate midway on the turn and was pretty much even thereafter (perhaps a neck back when pulled up), splits of :23 flat, :34.3, :47 flat and 1:00 flat, easy early, mild late coaxing. Street Boss filly was $360,000 OBS April Sale purchase and seems ready to roll for J. Sadler.

RHETORIC - (B. Baffert) August 2, Del Mar, 5f, :59.3hg
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In blinkers, was along the rail working inside Marco Polo (4f, :47hg) and was always going the better of the two without really being asked much, then was coaxed just a bit in the final stages and responded impressively before galloping out a full six furlongs in 1:12.4 on our watches. Quality Road colt brought $600,00 as a yearling, has some speed but definitely wants to run long, hope he’ll debut in an elongated sprint or perhaps even two-turning. Looks plenty fit for Baffert.
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Workouts through July 27, 2021

DERECHO DANDY - (J. Sadler) July 26, Del Mar, 5f, :59.2hg
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Unraced son of Connect turned in a noteworthy solo gate drill for J. Sadler, traveling smarlty throughout without undue pressure, splits of :23.1, :34.1, :46.3 and :59.2, in blinkers and displaying strength and power throughout. Has been given a good foundation and looks fit enough to make the races soon. Nice prospect, for sure.
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JACK CHRISTOPHER - (C. Brown) July 26, Saratoga, 4f, :49.1b
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Team drill with C. Brown stable mate Practice Squad (same time) and looked quite promising in easy breeze while much the best along the rail, a ton left at the end while under a hammerlock. Munnings colt isn’t too far along just yet but may be a smoker and is worth following very closely.
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KING FURY – (K. McPeek) July 24, Saratoga, 5f, :59.4b TT
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Graded stakes winning 3-year-old has never looked better while toying with workmate Simply Ravishing (5f, 1:02.2b, TT), drawing way effortlessly through the lane without every being asked and still recording a very fast clocking. It’ll be interesting to see how ambitioius this colt’s connections will be with this improving son of of Curlin.
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RAYMUNDOS SECRET – (P. D’Amato) July 25, Del Mar, 5f, 1:00.3h TC DU
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Loves this Del Mar turf course and appears ready to roll after being freshed since April. The veteran stakes winning distaffer was by herself and own her own in the fast five furlong grasss breeze around the cones and was sharp and eager throughout. Most effective at a mile and can fire a big shot fresh.
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WICKED HALO - (S. Asmussen) July 26, Saratoga, 4f, :50.1b
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Breezing every step of the way and under a tight hold through the lane to be even but slightly best over talented stable mate Gunite (same time), sharp and eager while gearing up for another crack at stakes competition. Has intense early speed and ran very well when third in the listed Debutante S. at Churchill Downs last time out.
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Workouts through July 20, 2021

EXCELLENT TIMING - (C. Brown) July 16, 2021, Saratoga, 5f, 1:00.3b
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Sharp and eager in solo five furlong drill while strong throughout and mostly on his own. Stakes-winning New York-bred colt has been freshened and the time off appears to have done him some good. Stakes-quality sort when he’s on his game.
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FOUR GRACES - (I. Wilkes) July 16, 2021, Saratoga, 4f, :47.4b
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Breezing half mile drill while clearly best from Liberty M D (same time) for I. Wilkes, just cruising under a nice hold while workmate had to be asked a bit to stay even. Ran like a short horse in her comeback in Kentucky; seems likely to be fitter and improve next time out.
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HOPKINS - (B. Baffert) July 19, 2021, Del Mar, 5f, :59hg
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Unraced 3-year-old Quality Road colt brought $900,000 as a yearling and may finally be ready to face the starter based on this impressive gate drill while proving best over Gold Rush Candy (5f, :59.1hg) and Dubronik (4f, :48hg), always on his left lead but in front along the rail throughout, something left late without pressure, :46.2 and :59 flat on our watches. Turned in a series of fast works at Los Alamitos before joining the main string and should be more than fit enough by now.
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Workouts through July 13, 2021

LUCK – (R. Baltas) July 13, 201, Del Mar, 5f, 1:01.4h tc du
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Broke off a length in front of Bodhicitta (same time) and maintained that advantage to the wire in breezing drill around dogs on turf for R. Baltas. Lightly-raced filly from France moves like a very nice type and seems fairly fit. Has conditions and will make the entries soon.
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Workouts Through July 6, 2021

CURIOUS INJI - (J. Mullins) July 4, 2021, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h
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Under wraps every step of the way in solo training track drill, final half mile in :24.1 and :48.4, plenty left late. Unplaced in three career starts, most recently in a maiden claiming miler (stumbled badly at the start), but the daughter of Misremembered surely appears capable of better and seems likely to surface in a winnable spot early in the Del Mar season.
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SEMPER FIDELIS - (S. Joseph, Jr.) July 3, 2021, Palm Meadows, 4f, :47.1h
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Barn tends to let them roll in the a.m., but this lightly-raced son of Fast Anna was under cruise control throughout in sharp half mile main track drill, final three furlongs in :35 flat. Been away since December but appears to be returning better than he left and should be hard to beat vs. older maiden special weight foes.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2021, 06:50 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Wednesday, August 4, 2021

August 4, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: X
Pass/No Play:

Forecast: Today’s first race has been carded for hurdlers. We will pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: X
Use: 7-Cousin Andrew; 8-We Be There

Forecast: Cousin Andrew is a first-time gelding and plummets from straight maiden company into a bottom-rung maiden claimer, so there are two legitimate reasons why he should improve but also get hammered on the tote (he’s 4/5 on the morning line). Now four years old and clearly being culled from the stable, the C. Brown-trained son of Into Mischief has several prior speed figures that are much better than par for this bottom-rung maiden $20,000 level so at this extended sprint trip he should be able to secure a good trip and earn his diploma at a short price. For protection, you may want to consider We Be There on a ticket or two as a back-up at 10-1 on the morning line. Drawn comfortably outside and turning back in trip, the T. Amoss-trained gelding figures to be running on late.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Lockstep; 3-Take the Backroads; 7-Leviosa; 8-Cee Are Em

Forecast: This turf sprint for juvenile fillies is restricted to those that went through the ring for $45,000 in their most recent sale. It’s a race that requires a considerable spread in rolling exotic play. Leviosa had trained like a rocket ship at Gulfstream Park prior to her debut last month and, as expected, was knocked down to 4/5 favoritism. But after a bit of awkward break, the daughter of Kantharos simply had no excuse and wound up a well-beaten, deflating fourth. Maybe she’ll improve today with that race behind her for a trainer that has very strong stats with the second-time starter angle, the switch to turf, and a good five furlong gate work since arriving at Saratoga. The fact that she was shipped to a tougher circuit and attracts I. Ortiz, Jr. must indicate that her connections haven’t given up on her, so today will tell the tale. Take the Backroads, in the money both of her career outings, had every chance but simply got worn down when clearing but missing as the chalk vs. similar on the main track last month. Perhaps the switch to grass with help, and with Bernstein on the bottom side of her pedigree she has a right to enjoy the lawn. Cee Are Em shows a bullet gate blowout here last month (:35 2/5) and showed some run when best of a team in a previous move from the barrier in June. Lockstep had an okay breeze around dogs on turf on July 23 and won’t have to be a world beater to act with these. We’ll toss her in.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: X
Use: 2-Ifhihadachance; 4-Coffee Bar

Forecast: After finishing a distant second as the favorite in a recent comeback sprint tightener, Coffee Bar should produce a significant forward move in this nine furlong first-level allowance state-bred event for fillies and mares. The T. Pletcher barn is a solid 22% with the second-time-off-a-layoff angle and this lightly-raced, stakes-placed daughter of Outwork, listed at 6/5 on the morning line, really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat. Ifihadachance is a strong fit on numbers and a seasoned veteran coming off a pair of runner-up efforts at this level. This nine furlong trip may be a bit problematic for a one-turn specialist but in a race without much pace she should be comfortably-placed on or near the lead. We’ll prefer Coffee Bar on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Funwhileitlasted; 5-Sport Model

Forecast: Most of these exit the same race on June 19, a seven furlong stakes on grass at Belmont Park. In today’s New York Stallion Series event, they’ll meet around two-turns at a mile over the inner course. Sport Model won the aforementioned race but today must pick up five pounds. However, she’s lightly raced with speed figures that continue to rise with each outing and very likely has further improvement in her. For whatever reason, L. Saez and I. Ortiz, Jr. switch mounts today with the former taking the call on the Shesadirtydancer while the latter picks up the mount on Sport Model. Funwhileitlasted, a closing second to Sport Model last time out, is a proven route type that should appreciate the trip and an inside draw that guarantees a ground-saving journey. She might actually be the most dependable ofthe lot. Let’s boil this down to just two, and in a close call we’ll slightly prefer Sport Model on top.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Empreses of War; 4-Shamalamadingdong

Forecast: After missing by a neck while almost 12 lengths clear of the rest in a similar maiden special weight sprint for New York-bred fillies and mares last month, Shamalamadingdong is listed at 6/5 on the morning line to earn her diploma in this similarly modest affair. The C. Clement-trained filly shortens to six furlongs, and while we actually prefer her in an extended sprint, it may not make any difference against this group. Those trying to beat the favorite should give a close look at Empress of War>, the likely controlling speed who could prove troublesome if she repeats her runner-up effort in the mud at Belmont Park in early June. In that race she displayed the kind of early speed that could allow for early separation, assuming she runs straight and true.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Convection; 8-Determined Fury

Forecast: This race is loaded with front-running types that even in “lone speed” situations aren’t all that dependable, so let’s zero in on the two best closers and assume that the pace flow will greatly promote their style. Convection tries grass for the first time after breaking slowly in an off-the-turf sprint at Churchill Downs in his last outing in early June. A clever winner of his first two career races and a $50,000 claim by T. Amoss in his second start, the son of Constitution remains protected in this starter’s allowance affair and with good racing luck will have an excellent chance to produce the last run. He’s a fit based on his dirt figures so let’s hope he breaks well today and runs back to either one of his first two efforts. Determined Fury was a visually pleasing maiden $40,000 winner when last seen in late May in his first try on grass that produced a career top speed figure. Not much more will be needed today from the C. Clement-trained gelding.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: X
Use: 2-Aunt Kat; 4-Casual

Forecast: Aunt Kat seeks her fourth straight win in this year’s renewal of the Shine Again S. and catches a pace flow that should allow her a fairly easy time of it on the front end. Fast on speed figures and with the ability to handle any type of dirt surface, the daughter of Uncle Mo had a recent half mile bullet drill in :46 4/5 (fastest of 27) to indicate she’s ready to roll again in her first outing in two months. Casual will be running on late and seems capable of picking up the pieces and at least completing the exacta. This seven furlong trip produced her career top speed figure so if ‘Kat doesn’t bring her “A” game (we suspect she will) the daughter of Curlin could make some noise late.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-En Wye Cee; 7-Bodecream

Forecast: There are several legitimate contenders in this difficult third-level allowance nine furlong turf event for older horses, with a couple of major players coming off extended layoffs. The pace flow is a bit muddled as well, so the best advice is to tread lightly. En Wye Cee, away since last October when finishing a good third in the Knickerbocker S.-G2, has trained like he should return as well as he left and on two prior occasions the son of Declaration of War has run extremely well fresh. He’ll enjoy a ground-saving, stalking trip from the rail for a barn that hits at 27% with returnees, so we’ll put him on top. Bodecream has been thoroughly consistent since joining the M. Maker barn, with in-the-money finishes in seven of eight starts, most recently winning a two-other-than allowance event in an off-the-turf sloppy track affair at Belmont Park last month. His numbers say he’s just as effective on grass, so in his present form the veteran gelding is a “must use” despite the class hike. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Be Up; 5-Kitten by the Sea

Forecast: Kitten by the Sea is protected in starter’s allowance affair after being worn down late as the favorite in a restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claimer over this course and distance last month. She’s probably most effective when able to establish the running but she has stalked and pounced successfully in the past so J. Ortiz has that option if the pace flow dictates. Be Up was a debut winner at Delaware in June and then performed reasonably well when boosted all the way into stakes company, winding up fourth of six without mishap in the Christiana S. lasts month. Her numbers are rising and make her a fit at this level, so with another forward move the daughter of Temple City has a big look for the high-percentage J. Thomas stable. Both should be decent prices and are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Kitten by the Sea on top.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2021, 06:54 AM

Jeff Siegel's Five Takeaways - 8/3/21

August 3, 2021
From the week concluding August 1, 2021
By Jeff Siegel

1 - There were a trio of important sprint stakes races over the weekend, two of which were won by 3-year-olds, one of which scored high on the goose-bump scale. Jackie’s Warrior had been upset by Drain the Clock in the Woody Stephens S.-G1 in early June but in their rematch in the 6.5 furlong Amsterdam S.-G2 at Saratoga it was no contest as the son of Maclean’s Music ran his rival into the ground during a torrid early pace duel and then coasted home to register a more than seven length victory. The assigned Beyer speed figure of 101, while arguably accurate, doesn’t do Jackie’s Warrior justice considering the blistering early fractions that he dispensed, and the victory, albeit vs. 3-year-olds only and over a muddy track that may (or may not) have moved him up, stamps him as the leader in the national sprint division for at least until Life Is Good makes a reappearance.

During the winter, Jackie’s Warrior was given one shot to gain passage on this year’s Derby trail, in the two-turn one mile Southwest Stakes-G3 at Oaklawn Park in February. He finished a well-beaten, fading third to Essential Quality, and that, thankfully, was the end of that. Since then he’s been allowed to concentrate on races that fit his profile in one-turn races up to a mile, winning the Pat Day Mile-G2 by a head and then missing by a neck in the Stephens before his Amsterdam success. Though his next start will be at seven furlongs in the H. Allen Jerkens S.-G1 Aug 28, It will be at the shorter six furlong trip of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint-G1 where we think he’ll truly be at his very best.

2 - Dr. Schivel is the other 3-year-old to make noise in the sprint division, doing so on Saturday when beating older horses in the Bing Crosby S.-G1. But how strong of a race was it? More than half the field appeared to finish in a heap and the assigned Beyer speed figure of 90 will get you nothing but hot and dirty on Breeders’ Cup day.

Successful in four of six career outings, the son of Violence did register a 97 Beyer in an overnight race at Santa Anita in his first start of the year in June, a respectable figure but not one that’s going to win the B.C. Sprint. Maybe he can do better. He’ll have to. The good news for Dr. Schivel is that he clearly loves the always quirky Del Mar main track (home to this year’s Breeders’ Cup), having won all three of his starts there including the 2020 Del Mar Futurity-G1.

3 - Continuing with our theme of the impact of speed figures in the evaluation process, the first-time starting juvenile filly Magnolia really caught our eye on Saturday when graduating in a five furlong turf sprint at Del Mar. Off a bit slowly and then stymied behind the leaders while saving ground to the head of the lane, she displayed quick action and extreme athleticism to angle out for room in the upper stretch and then quickly reeled in the leader to win like a filly who is destined to be somebody down the road.

Her Beyer speed figure of 70 was okay, not great, but the final furlong, officially clocked in :11.41 (she was at least a length back at this stage) under mild hand coaxing only may paint or more accurate picture. As a daughter of Frosted, she’s supposed to run on, so we’d think the listed Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf Sept. 5 will be next. Then, we’ll learn if the Simon Callaghan-trained filly is better than the fig says she is.

4 - It was a little puzzling that the Monmouth Park stewards waited two weeks after the fact to announce that jockey Flavien Prat had been handed a seven day suspension for careless riding aboard the disqualified Hot Rod Charlie in the Haskell S.-G1. Prat was cited for “failing to make a reasonable effort to keep his horse from drifting in past the 1/8 pole, allowing his horse to cross in front of Midnight Bourbon, which resulted in Midnight Bourbon clipping heels with Hot Rod Charlie, causing Midnight Bourbon to stumble badly, unseating his rider.”

The owners of the fallen colt surely would have collected at least third money of $100,000 had Prat maintained a straight course but instead received nothing but a bill for a standard jockey’s fee owed to their rider, Paco Lopez. Meanwhile, in what may be a case of being good to have friends in high places, Prat is allowed to serve his days beginning September 7 and ending Sept. 13, a time frame that conveniently begins one day after the rich Del Mar season closes and occurs during the first week of the Los Angeles County Fair meeting at Los Alamitos Racetrack. Not sure how many mounts Prat was expected to ride during the Fair meeting, but at the recently concluded two week summer session at Los Alamitos, he, according to the track’s website accepted exactly zero mounts.

5 - I had the good fortune of covering the Preakness S.-G1 on site at Pimlico for HRTV for a dozen years, a significant journalistic experience to be sure, one that allowed me to be rooftop for one of the most thrilling horse races I’ve ever seen, the victory by the filly Rachel Alexandra over Derby winner Mine That Bird in 2009. Three years earlier, the undefeated Barbaro, who had captured the attention of the mainstream media as a likely Triple Crown winner following his runaway Kentucky Derby triumph, was expected to take his next step toward racing immortality that afternoon but tragically suffered what proved to be a catastrophic injury in the opening furlong of the race, and ultimately had to be put down several months later despite heroic attempts to save him.

The winner of that Preakness wasn’t the story line, in fact almost all of our reporting centered on Barbaro’s dire post-race condition and his hastily assembled emergency transportation with escort to a nearby veterinary clinic. Through it all, we managed to occasionally drop into the discussion that a little known 12-1 longshot named Bernardini, trained by Tom Albertrani, actually had won the race

We may not have realized it at the time, but Bernardini was a fabulous race horse an in retrospect may have won the Preakness under any circumstance. The Darley Stable (Godolphin)-owned colt would proceed to win the Jim Dandy S.-G1, the Travers S.-G1 and the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 (each victory under wraps) before going to the post in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at even money, a race that I’ll always believe he should have won. The victim of pilot error or perhaps overconfidence by jockey Javier Castellano, Bernardini was asked to move too soon while very wide into the teeth of a contested pace and eventually paid the price when worn down close home by Invasor, who won by a length and in doing so earned Horse of the Year honors.

A resident of Jonabell Farm throughout his stud career, Bernardini was euthanized last Friday at age 18 due to laminitis. Though he never produced anything that was quite as accomplished as himself, the son of A. P. Indy was highly successful in his second career, siring at last count 80 stakes winners and the dams of 54 stakes winners. Those numbers will rise in seasons to come, and his influence in North American breeding will be felt for decades.
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From the week concluding July 25, 2021
By Jeff Siegel

1 – It’s not called the “Graveyard of Favorites” for nothing. Unbeaten Malathaat (1/5) couldn’t lose the Coaching Club American Oaks-G1 at Saratoga, until she did. But that wasn’t the shocking part, because she performed as well as could be expected, actually earning a career top 96 Beyer after responding bravely to constant pressure before falling short by a head. What was unforeseen was the monumental step up in performance by Maracuja, who left 14-1 but would have been triple that price (at least) if there had been a full field of runners instead of just a four. This was the same Maracuja that was 37-1 when last seen finishing seventh (beaten more than seven lengths) in the Kentucky Oaks-G1 behind Malathaat and had gone three weeks without a recorded workout between June 13 and July 4, during which time she was getting over a “setback,” according to trainer Rob Atras.

But, make no mistake, the outcome was no fluke. After pressing Malathaat during the opening half mile, Maracuja began to retreat midway down the backstretch and found herself last approaching the half mile pole and appearing be done at that point. But, in an instant and apparently channeling her inner Billy Mills, she somehow managed to re-rally wide into the lane and then just kept on coming (“Look at Maracuja! Look at Maracuja!”). Despite this extraordinary performance, the daughter of Honor Code still has much to accomplish in order to enter the conversation for a year-end Eclipse Award in the 3-year-old filly. But now, at least, there’s a path. The Alabama S.-G1 (August 21) is next.

2 – “Can’t miss” favorites can get beaten at Del Mar, too, as witnessed by Going Global’s stunning defeat at 2/5 by a half-length to Madrone in the San Clemente S.-G2 on Saturday. Yes, she had been freshened for eight weeks and displayed a work tab that was light if not steady, but this was her first defeat in six starts since arriving in the States after the Irish-bred 3-year-old had compiled such a record that trainer P. D’Amato was speaking of her in terms of being the best grass filly he’d ever trained.

Though Flavien Prat provided no excuses (“the winner got the jump, but I got through”), jockeys always have been reluctant to position themselves outside entering the far turn in a Del Mar turf race for fear of being parked out and losing valuable ground, especially over a course with a bull ring equivalent stretch run of just 817 feet run. Nobody would dispute that an ideal trip on grass would be to save ground with cover and then quicken through the lane, but at Del Mar the ability to mount momentum, as Madone did outside in the clear from the mid-point of the far turn to the wire, is often just as effective and often times less problematic. While Prat and Going Global were bottled up for at least a furlong during the critical stage of the race, Madone was in full flight. That, more than anything, made the difference. We’ll see what happens when they meet again in the Del Mar Oaks-G1 Aug. 21.

3 – Jockey Kent Desormeaux took to his twitter feed to vent frustration following his suspension for three days after his mount in the Friday Del Mar first race, the debuting 2-year-old filly Seven Exes, was disqualified from fifth to sixth for shifting in at the break and causing crowding at the start of the race. After viewing the head on, it’s hard to believe that Kent was even called in, much less cited. Indeed, the filly veered in sharply and initiated a chain reaction, but it certainly appeared that the jockey did what he could to straighten her out after contact was made. Remember, this was a 2-year-old in her first career start. It happens.

Contrast this to jockey Kyle Fry’s premeditated gate break maneuver in the Del Mar 11th race on Saturday, July 17. Leaving from the rail midway up the turf chute, Fry, from the number one post position aboard Jimmy Blue Jeans, drifted out noticeably leaving the gate in what certainly appeared to be an attempt to gain a better angle entering the main course, but in doing so caused a reaction that completely sawed off the runner drawn right next to him, Wyfire, which clearly cost that colt valuable early position and arguably his best chance. Wyfire did manage to pick himself off the ground to eventually rally and wind up fourth, but there was no inquiry, no disqualification, and no days. This might be a video Kent should use as evidence to cite inconsistency, if nothing else, during his appeal hearing, assuming the ruling is still pending.

4 – Adayar, a son of Frankel who defeated terrific older rivals Mishriff and Love at Ascot on Saturday, became the first colt to win the Epsom Derby-G1 and the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S.-G1 back-to-back since the brilliant Galileo pulled it off 21 years ago, and in doing so stamped himself as a top contender for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and a viable candidate for European Horse of the Year honors. And he may very well be good enough to do just that. But you have to wonder, as many English scribes are currently debating, is Adayar even is the best colt in Charlie Appleby’s yard? Yes, he did defeat his stable mate Hurricane Lane, who

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2021, 06:55 AM

Golden Gate Fields Stats: France Posts Perfection

August 3, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Golden Gate Fields. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Northern California. And be sure to support GGF by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Golden Gate Fields.

Headlines

Golden Gate will host the Santa Rosa fair racing dates Aug. 6-15 … The Rainbow 6 was a mandatory payout Aug. 1 to conclude the prior summer dates for Golden Gate, and the jackpot pool will start anew Friday … Feature race this week will be Saturday’s $50,000 Luther Burbank for fillies and mares on the turf … Jockey Pedro Terrero has returned from nearly 2-1/2 years away due to a head injury, winning the Pleasanton meet, and positioning himself well with the return to Golden Gate.

Stronach 5

The Stronach 5 is on temporary summer hiatus and expected to return in September.

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Golden Gate Fields, each posting at least 26% winners and a flat-bet profit, including +$69 and +$82 profitable ledgers with Best Speed Fast Track and Avg. Turn Time.

Best Speed Fast Track
Trainer Year
Avg. Turn Time

Trends Last Week

-- Jockey Armando Ayuso topped all riders with a 19: 5-5-2 record, including 8: 3-3-1 aboard favorites.

-- Jockey Catalino Martinez made the most of limited mounts at 5: 2-0-1

-- Trainer Steve Sherman was a dialed-in 9: 4-0-2 with a $2.21 ROI for every $1 bet. Four different riders piloted the winners, which included $13 and $14 scores.

-- Trainer Reid France was a perfect 3-for-3 with $6, $9 and $9 victories. He won short and long on the main, and on the turf, using 3 different riders. He’s got 4 wins and a runner-up from his last 6 local starters.

-- Trainer Cliff Delima posted a 5: 2-0-0 mark – all with main track sprinters – and boasted $7 and $17 winners. The victories helped snap a slump in July that was 1-15 going into last week.

-- Favorites won just 28% (14-for-50) over the past 2 weeks since racing returned to GGF.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2021, 06:56 AM

Pimlico Stats: Vukelic Quietly Makes Noise

August 3, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Pimlico. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Maryland. And be sure to support Pimlico by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Maryland Jockey Club.

Headlines

A $10,216 Rainbow 6 jackpot carryover welcomes horseplayers Friday for the start of a 3-day week … 2020 Preakness-winning filly Swiss Skydiver will take on the boys again in Saturday’s Grade 1 Whitney at Saratoga … Pimlico Special winner Harpers First Ride defended his title July 31 in winning the Deputed Testamony Stakes at Old Hilltop … Hello Beautiful’s score in the July 31 Alma North gave jockey Sheldon Russell his 1,500th career trip to the winner’s circle … Pimlico’s next big stakes card will be Aug. 21 with the All Brandy, Find, Miss Disco and Star De Naskra for Maryland-breds … The MJC autumn season at Laurel begins Sept. 9, featuring the Sept. 18 Grade 3 DeFrancis Dash and Oct. 23 Jim McKay Maryland Million, set for its 37th renewal.

Stronach 5

The Stronach 5 is on temporary summer hiatus and expected to return in September.

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Pimlico, each posting at least 28% wins. Speed factors continue to lead the way at Pimlico over the past month-plus.

Last Late Pace
Avg. Speed
Lifetime Speed

Trends Last Week

-- Trainer Claudio Gonzalez was back on a tear at 11: 4-2-0, including Harpers First Ride’s title defense in the Deputed Testamony Stakes.

-- Robert Vukelic went 2: 1-0-1, both in claiming dirt sprints, topped by a $17 winner. The barn is a wild 8: 5-1-2 with limited starts since May 31 at Pimlico.

-- Jockey Angel Cruz led the colony with a 10: 4-1-0 mark, going 4: 2-1-0 on favorites. All 5 exacta finishes were aboard horses 5-2 or less.

-- Jockey Sheldon Russell was on point at 9: 3-2-3, though all 3 wins and 6 of his mounts were aboard favorites. He had a stakes win and third-place finish on the July 31 card.

-- Favorites continue with hard-luck seconds, last week going 24: 8-10-3. That’s 14 runners-up as favorites over the past 2 weeks (vs. 15 wins).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2021, 06:56 AM

Gulfstream Stats: Barboza Booming

August 3, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Gulfstream Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in South Florida. And be sure to support Gulfstream by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Gulfstream Park.

Headlines

After Saturday’s mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6, the one-day carryover heading into Friday’s 3-day racing week will be $28,798 ($100,000-guaranteed pool) … The July 31 mandatory payout lured $2.3M in new money and paid $14,880.32 for a 20-cent ticket … Feature race this week will be Saturday’s Azalea for 3-year-old filly sprinters going 7 furlongs … Hall of Fame jockey Edgar Prado, #7 on the all-time wins list in North American racing, notched career score #7,100 on August 1 … Cajun’s Magic won the July 31 Florida Sire Stakes Dr. Fager Division to give owners Gil and Marilyn Campbell their 16th FSS victory since the series began in 1982 … Renovations continue on the new third racing surface, Tapeta, at Gulfstream and it’s scheduled to be unveiled in September.

Stronach 5

The Stronach 5 is on temporary summer hiatus and expected to return in September.

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Gulfstream Park last week, each showing a flat-bet profit. Avg. Speed was the top-performing factor for the third straight week.

Avg. Speed
Jockey Year
Last Turn Time

Trends Last Week

-- Trainer Victor Barboza continued a strong run at 10: 4-1-2 and a massive $3.95 ROI for every $1 bet. Winners paid $8, $9, $11 and $49. He’s now 7 for 16 the past 2 weeks.

-- Trainer Carlos David got on another streak at 9: 4-1-1 with $6, $6, $13 and $18 scores. That was good for a $2.42 ROI for every $1 bet. Three of his wins came in dirt sprints. David also was 1-1 last week at Pimlico.

-- Trainer Ralph Nicks went 5: 3-0-0 with a couple of winning favorites and all 3 victories in the maiden claiming ranks.

-- Jockey Emisael Jaramillo led the way with a 20: 6-3-2 record and $1.56 ROI for every $1 bet. He was 3-for-6 aboard favorites. Jaramillo teamed with Gilberto Zerpa for a 3: 2-1-0 mark.

-- Jockey Angel Arroyo made the most of limited mounts at 9: 4-1-0 and a $3.43 ROI for every $1 bet. Winners paid $13, $13, $17 and $17. He won for 4 different barns and his 5 exacta finishes all came for different trainers.

-- Jockey Jesus Rios went 10: 3-1-0 with a massive $5.55 ROI for every $1 bet, thanks to $92 and $15 winners along the way. He won the Florida Sire Stakes Dr. Fager Division aboard Cajun Magic to highlight the week.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2021, 06:58 AM

Hambletonian Post Draw Reaction

August 3, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
The field for the 96th Hambletonian was set this afternoon at the Meadlowlands as harness racing’s premier trot is on tap for Saturday in northern New Jersey. Elimination winners Delayed Hanover and Captain Corey will begin from posts 1 and 4, respectively, in the 10-runner lineup. Track oddsmaker Dave Brower tabbed Captain Corey the 3-1 morning line favorite.

Horseplayers can take advantage of up to a $10 money back guarantee if their win bet finishes second or third in the Hambletonian. For more, see Xpressbet.com/promos.

Ake Svansveldt trains both elimination winners as well as Ambassador Hanover (post 9). Delayed Hanover won the first elimination at 6-1 in a race clouded by breaks from top contenders Dancinginthedark M and Zenith Stride. Captain Corey’s elimination victory was surrounded by less drama, powering on the front end at the same 6-1 mild upset price.

Trainer Nancy Takter has Spy Booth (post 3), Locatelli (post 5) and Really Fast (post 7) in the Hambo final. Takter said Yannick Gingris would drive Really Fast if Dexter Dunn opts for Delayed Handover as expected when final drivers are announced Wednesday.

In all, $3.4 million in stakes races will be offered on Saturday’s 16-race Meadowlands card, including the Hambletonian Oaks. Bella Belini is the 3-1 morning line favorite from post 5 in the Oaks. First race will be noon ET on the final day of the Big M Championship Meet.

For more handicapping analysis of this year’s Hambletonian, check back at Xpressbet.com and news.1st.com on Thursday for harness handicapping expert Al Cimaglia’s horse-by-horse analysis and Saturday’s final picks from Cimaglia.

Meadowlands // Hambletonian // 1 mile trot

1. Delayed Hanover 7-2
2. Take All Comers 12-1
3. Spy Booth 15-1
4. Captain Corey 3-1
5. Locatelli 15-1
6. Sonofamistery 4-1
7. Really Fast 5-1
8. Venerate 8-1
9. Ambassador Hanover 15-1
10. Quatro De Julio 10-1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2021, 06:59 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Parx Racing - Race #4

#4 Maryevil	Looks like one of the two lightly raced fillies should make some noise in here, and this one might have a little bit of upside on the move into a new barn. Change of scenery does the trick?
#3 Everybody's Pal	She was better with blinkers at Penn National last out, and she's worth another look on the local footing with that equipment on today. One of the ones.
#5 La Altenita	She is quick enough to get in the mix in the early stages, and that might be enough to allow her to stick around for a piece. Still, she's usually going the wrong way late like the rest of these.
Race Summary	Maryevil is an interesting horse to go in for $10,000 at second asking, but she probably doesn't have to come forward too much in order to land this for the new barn and pay some quick dividends.

Parx Racing - Race #9

#8 Spikes Shirl	There are a handful of pace players lined up and not too many finishers, and this guy showed some good finishing ability at this trip a couple starts back over this turf course. Mid-range price chance.
#9 Call Wil	Pressing type should be able to get first jump on these, and the overall form makes him tough with his baseline effort. Third start off the break brings a winning effort?
#10 Hollywood Talent	He has some forward ability that should keep him in the mix early on with these, but he's probably a bit overbet with these off a third-place finish in a modest race at the level last out.
Race Summary	Spikes Shirl might get the right kind of setup from off the pace, and while she rallied in the same common race as Hollywood Talent, she gets the better race flow at a better price today.

Parx Racing - Race #11

#5 Worth His Salt	He returns after a couple months off following two dull runs, but he still isn't that far removed from the type of try that would win this, and he has some pace to put to use in a race where the forward players may have the advantage.
#2 Starship Aramis	He seems like a good fit with this bunch, but he's not always that reliable and isn't a sure thing to back up the big effort at Monmouth last time out.
#7 Three Phase	He has been in with some better groups than this in most of his recent starts, and he occasionally shows some decent finishing ability.
Race Summary	I don't like the way 5/2 ML favorite #4 Seat of Honor is going, as he brings declining form over the course of the year, and Worth His Salt has some dangerous speed at times and might be able to get back to one of his better efforts today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2021, 07:01 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#4 EASTEND EDDIE	Plagued by bad posts, finished with interest in latest, offers some value.
#6 ROGER MACH EM	Took money off dismal effort, ran fifth, Tetrick's choice over top one.
#2 NORTHERN SPORTSMAN	Won at this level with Napolitano a months ago.
Race Summary	Eastend Eddie took back to last from post 8, trailed into the final turn, angled inside to avoid an extremely wide trip and finished willingly between rivals. The 13-year-old could get back on the winning track with a favorable post switch. Play 4-2 and 4-6 exactas.

Hoosier Park - Race #2

#1 INSEQUENDO FRED	Fast pace took its toll, can control pace throughout in here.
#5 SKIPPING STONE	Took money against top one, paced evenly after early interference.
#2 WAL FINEST	Rallied for a win, two seconds and a third the last four times he stayed flat.
Race Summary	Insequendo Fred set the night's fastest pace but got caught by a pair of deep closers as the odds-on favorite. He has new shooter Who's Negan to contend with early, but he figures tough from the rail nonetheless. Let's make him tonight's Best Bet.

Northfield Park - Race #2

#3 BELLE OF CINCY	Showed pulse in her debut against better, taken to upset.
#4 SUPER SPIRIT	Improved speed figure as 2-race winning streak ended.
#5 SILENT BROTHER	Led long way in debut after 2-to-5 fave broke stride.
Race Summary	Morning-line favorites Super Spirit and Silent Brother benefited when the race favorite went off stride, so take a price shot on Belle Of Cincy, who was in range for a half mile in her first start, then drew post 8 in her follow-up try. Play 3-4 and 3-5 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2021, 07:02 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #3

#5 Purple Shirt	Has taken on some strong Indiana-bred company and was third the last time he was in a N3L spot; moves over to the turf, where he broke his maiden last fall.
#3 Expressed	Cruised home to an easy win last out and a similar effort makes him very tough here.
#2 Book of Romeo	Has won just one race and goes against N3L company, but his fifth in the Snack Stakes indicates he can run with these.
Race Summary	Purple Shirt is back to turn after taken on decent foes on the main track and gets a field to his liking.

Indiana Grand - Race #7

#7 Nobody Listens	Was second in the Snack Stakes on turf last out and has a couple of wins on the main track this year; has responded to the switch to the Johnson barn and does well with the lead.
#4 Hard Luck Justice	Became a stakes winner two back and his two wins this season have been in easy fashion; is a different horse running two turns.
#8 A Few too Many	Was third in the Snack Stakes last out and has three dirt wins to his credit; in the hunt throughout.
Race Summary	Nobody Listens has improved this year and the return to the main track should not move him out of form; will be close throughout and can dig in late.

Indiana Grand - Race #8

#4 Mizzen Ash	Was forced six wide into the stretch and was making up ground, settling for fourth; should be able to get a better trip and the switch to dirt should be no problem.
#3 Pearl Tiara	Swept to easy wins in her last two, the latest going two turns; very tough on the front end.
#6 Russian Influence	Rallied strongly and won going away in the Miss Indiana Stakes last out; has done well in three starts with two wins and a third; solid runner with a big chance.
Race Summary	Mizzen Ash was moving well at the end of her latest despite a bad trip; gets a good pace ahead of her and can be expected to improve off her last one.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2021, 08:26 AM

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: San Diego w/Musgrove Pk over Oakland

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2021, 08:26 AM

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR WEDNESDAY: MINNESOTA/CINCINNATI OVER the total of 9 runs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2021, 08:27 AM

Totals4U

Wednesday's Free Selection: Cleveland Indians/Toronto Blue Jays over 10

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-04-2021, 08:27 AM

Atlantic Sports

Wednesday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Chicago Cubs + 150

Wednesday 8/4/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 8/4/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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