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Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis
August 8, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse has a Sunday night 13 race card ready to go with the first post coming at 6:30 CST. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 10. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 10
2-Dune Dame (2-1)-This mare showed more heart in the last win than she usually does. May get a boost of confidence off that game effort and will likely offer a short price. Leonard should have her in play from the start.
7-Model (5-1)-Even effort in last versus better and should enjoy the company. Looks like a player and is Seekman's choice over #5. Hasn't raced since 7/17 and will hope the rest helps.
8-Rosey Time (3-1)-This barn is 0-12 over the last 365 days and they claimed this 4-year-old mare for a cost of $8,700. Comes right back versus $6k claimers after a 2nd place finish leaving from post 7 and Bender will steer again.
Race 11
2-Dixie Chick (7-1)-This filly is only 1-13 but drops to a better level for success and is Bender's choice over #1. This will be the 3rd race in a row at Haw and should be a player if avoids a tardy start. Using and looking for a price in this leg.
4-Skyway Rockatop (7-1)-Drops and figures to be in the mix if the pilot does his part. That isn't a lock to happen, but this group is beatable and should offer a sold price.
6-Taken Control (6-1)-Suffered a tough trip in last at this same class and faded down the lane. This filly has hit the board in 5 of 9 in Stickney with 2 wins and has a shot at a fair price. But Wilfong needs to provide a sharp steer and use one big move to take control.
8-Sunrise Sweetie (3-1)-Beat this kind last week in the 1st start for the Rittof barn and went off as the post time chalk. Husted steers his own #7 so Todd Warren will drive here. Won off a ground saving trip leaving from post 3. This won't be as easy, but the price should be better, and this isn't a field full of top form.
Race 12
1-Pootie Cat (8/5)-This 4-year-old mare is very camera shy. Usually is there at the wire but is 2-28 in 2020-21 and only 2-27 at Haw. So, it's a guessing game but will use versus this field from the rail even at a short price. Did draw off by >3 lengths last week and maybe that same effort will happen tonight at the same class.
6-Always B Mimi (3-1)-Has hit the board in 8 of 11 at Haw with 2 wins. Not as camera shy as #1 but can't be counted on to finish off the mile. But deserves a spot on the ticket before others.
Race 13
1-Round Here Buzz (5/2)-Team Leonard entry is a grinder and is trip dependent. Using in what appears to be another chalky leg. Has a chance to get sucked around and be close to the leader tuning for the wire.
6-Partyatmosaplace (2-1)-Winner of 2 straight should do well versus this field. Cashed checks versus Illinois bred stakes company. Should be a major player if dialed on high. This is another from the Leonard barn and they usually have them ready but has missed a start.
0.50 Late Pick 4
2,7,8/2,4,6,8/1,6/1,6
Total Bet=$24
Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis for Sunday, August 8, 2021
August 8, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Surplus: 4-Hot Spot
Forecast: Surplus had every chance with backed down to 4/5 at Los Alamitos last month in a similar state-bred maiden sprint, but after comfortably establishing the pace simply couldn’t hang on and missed by a half length while four clear of the rest. The speed figure he earned was 17 Beyer points lower than par for this race and yet he’s the morning line favorite at 8/5 in a commentary on is how weak this race came up. The P. Miller-trained gelding will appreciate this shortened five furlong trip and may respond positively to the blinkers off angle, so while he’ll offer no real wagering value the son of Fed Biz may be about to outlast this group. Hot Spot, somewhat green but finishing with interest in his debut sprinting on grass at Santa Anita in mid-June, has a right to produce a forward move today for a stable that has superior stats with the second time starter angle (30% with a massive ROI). The K. Mulhall-trained gelding has trained very well since his first race, retains J. Valdivia, and should make his presence felt from the quarter pole home. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics; due to price considerations we’ll give the edge on top to Hot Spot.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: X
Single: 6-Defunded
Forecast: Defunded was nosed out by stable mate Classier in the Los Alamitos Derby-G3 last month while 14 lengths clear of the rest and today returns to the first-level allowance ranks for what trainer B. Baffert hopes will be a confidence building win. This will be his first start facing older horses, but after earning a career top speed figure in his most recent start and then working in sharp style over the local main track since that outing the son of Dialed In seems certain to continue his improving pattern, especially as a first-time Lasix user. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he’s a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Castle; 3-Austin’s Boy
Forecast: Castle won a $25,000 claiming turf sprint in early May at Santa Anita but then disappeared. He returns three months later in a first-level allowance state-bred affair but is eligible to compete for the huge $72,000 purse only if entered for the optional ($20,000) tag. It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if he got claimed and won the purse, and if he returns as well as he left the M. Glatt-trained gelding might do just that. He has seven career wins, including one over this course and distance, and the work tab looks reasonably solid. Austin’s Boy, an easy five length maiden winner sprinting on turf at Santa Anita in February of 2020, finally makes it back to the races and will need to be as good now if not better than he was when last seen to beat this field. The four-year-old gelding shows a series of strong recent drills, and the fact that he’s coming back protected must be viewed as a positive sign. Castle gets the main push, but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Commissioner David; 3-Respect the Code; 6-Charter Oak
Forecast: Charter Oak and Respect the Code, third and sixth, respectively, in a high-priced maiden claiming sprint last month, return in this maiden $80,000 seller for juveniles and both have a right to produce a forward move. Of the two, we actually liked the effort by Respect the Code a little bit better, as the son of Honor Code stayed on well through the lane after racing in traffic down the backstretch. With patient tactics today, the P. Miller-trained colt could be a dangerous late threat at 6-1 on the morning line. Charter Oak drew the rail in that race and kept to his task nicely to wind up a close second after settling in the second flight. It was a good effort, though he never had a straw in his path. We’ll also toss in the first-timer Commissioner David, a colt who previewed pretty well in 10 3/5 seconds at the Timonium 2-year-old in training sale and also shows a bullet three furlong local workout in 34 4/5 seconds just four days ago. If he breaks well from the rail, the D. O’Neill-trained colt likely will show enough speed to be a threat.
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Race 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade:
Use: 1-Iva Toguri; 6-Youonlylivetwice; 9-Big Summer
Forecast: Big Summer is the logical top pick based on her promising debut performance sprinting on grass in February at Santa Anita. The daughter of Mr. Big was quick enough to rush up from the rail to establish the pace but weakened late to wind up third behind next out winner Another Eddie in a stronger-than-par race for the level. The recent work tab isn’t flashy but it’s healthy and steady so let’s assume that she’s fit enough to pick up where she left off. Youonlylivetwice ran better than the line will show in her debut and could easily improve enough to give ‘Summer a serious challenge from start to finish. The daughter of Midshipman was somewhat green and erratic during the early stages of her race while lacking room along the inside but then finally settled and loomed a threat into the lane before losing her steam in the closing stages. The M. Glatt barn is solid with second-timers and the work tab since that mid-June race is strong and healthy. Iva Toguri is a newcomer bred for speed (Grazen) that has done all of her preliminary work at Los Alamitos. A bullet workout in late July (4f, :47 4/5 seconds, fastest of 19) indicates she may have the kind of speed that can make her competitive.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Trip to Spain; 4-Rock N Rye
Forecast: Rock N Rye is drawn outside the other speed types in this five and one-half furlong dash for juveniles and seems likely to draft into an ideal, cozy, stalking position. His maiden win in late May was visually pleasing (good gallop out past the wire) so we’re expecting the W. Solis-trained colt to enjoy today’s extra distance and be tough right back. Trip to Spain appears to be the quickest in the field based on his smart gate-to-wire debut win at Golden Gate Fields two weeks ago. The concern is that he’s being wheeled back on short rest while tackling tougher foes following a long van ride and trying conventional dirt for the first time, so if the son of Stay Thirsty can score right back it’ll be to his credit. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Rock N Rye.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Bad Beat Brian; 6-Torosay
Forecast: There’s a ton of suspect speed signed on in this five furlong grass sprint for first-level allowance/optional claimers so let’s zero in on stalker/closer types and hope that that a pace meltdown sets things up for the late runners. Bad Beat Brian, first off the $40,000 claim for M. Maker, finished well without being knocked about in a similar affair over this course and distance last month and seems likely to step forward for a trainer who’s had this gelding in the past and has done very well with him. A prototype late-running sprinter, the 4-year-old gelding switches to T. McCarthy and projects to settle well off the leaders and then blast home from the quarter pole to the wire. With good racing luck he could be along in time. Torosay, away for almost a year, returns in a logical spot and has run very well over this course in the past, including when last seen in a close third place effort in the 2020 Green Flash H.-G3. The son of Goldencents has run well fresh in the past and shows a work tab that should have him plenty fit; however, he’s always preferred to run second or third (eight times) than win (just once). Both should be used in rolling exotic play with our main punch going to Bad Beat Brian
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: C
Use: 3-Bonita Leona; 6-Essential Worker; 9-Sally Stanford; 10-Amanda Rose
Forecast: We’ll spread the eighth race, a guessing game of a maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies that is loaded with unknowns and question marks. Nothing would surprise us. Sally Stanford just failed at 30 cents on the dollar in a similar event after having every chance pressing the pace. She gets a break in the weights with the switch to good bug girl J. Pyfer, but that advantage may be offset by today’s half furlong extension in trip. Amanda Rose, drawn directly to her outside, adds blinkers while exiting a much stronger maiden special weight race and seems certain to improve against this group. She should have dead am on the leaders and have her chance to produce the last run. Essential Worker is a first-timer from the P. Miller barn that has done most of her preliminary work at Ruidoso Downs in New Mexico. Maybe she can run, maybe she can’t, but you have to use her. Bonita Leona was well-backed (2-1) in her debut vs. straight maidens here last month but had a rough trip and probably didn’t show her best stuff. She made a right hand turn leaving the gate, raced wide, and then wasn’t really preserved with while finishing last of eight, beaten 13 lengths. The Smiling Tiger filly deserves another look at this level.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Stilleto Boy; 2-Wyfire; 3-Hudson Ridge
Forecast: It seems like the main contenders in this year’s La Jolla H.-G3 are coming from all different directions. We’ll take some price chances and hope to be right, but this appears to be a race to spread as deeply as your budget allows. Hudson Ridge, assigned high weight of 123 pounds, seeks his third straight score and should draft into an ideal stalking position similar to the type of trip he enjoyed when winning a first-level allowance event at Santa Anita last month. Prior to that the son of American Pharoah overcame severe trouble to capture the Cinema ‘Cap, so while his numbers are just okay the B. Baffert-trained colt has developed into a consistent and genuine turf specialist. Stilleto Boy was a private purchase (apparently) following his runaway, highly-rated score in the Iowa Derby last month and makes his first start on grass for trainer E. Moger, Jr. in a race in which he’ll surely be the controlling speed. The sophomore gelding is unproven on turf but on pure numbers he’s got a chance, so at 6-1 on the morning line you have to include him. Wyfire seems better than his 12-1 morning line gives him credit for and is worth tossing in as well. The P. Miller-trained gelding had a nightmarish trip when a close fourth in an allowance event over this course and distance last month and seems certain to improve with the good stalking trip that he’s projected to enjoy today. He’s a fit on numbers, and in his third start off a layoff looks ready for a career top effort.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 5-Head for Business; 7-Hot Pursuit
Forecast: We’d rather not get too involved in this bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint, so we’ll try to get by using just two but not with any degree of confidence. Hot Pursuit, in the money in all three of his career starts and most recently third at Los Alamitos in his comeback, may have more room for improvement than the others so we’ll put him on top and hope that he can clear the field and then hang on. Head for Business drops to the bottom and has numbers that fit at this level, so we’ll use him as well. Toss in anybody else you like, it’s that kind of race.
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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Sunday, August 8, 2021
August 8, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: X
Single: 2-Shaker Shack
Forecast: Shaker Shack is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite in this $32,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies, but we wouldn’t be surprised if she goes lower than that. You have to wonder why she’s being dropped into a mid-grade claimer after winning a $200,000 New York-bred stakes in April and then finishing a reasonable third in another valuable state-bred affair in her most recent appearance in mid-June. Obviously, this isn’t a healthy pattern and assuming she isn’t scratched isn’t the type of short-priced favorite that you can depend on. We suggest you tread lightly, or pass the race, altogether.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: X
Use: 1-Consumer Spending/1a-McKulick; 2-Penny Saver; 3-Love to Run; 5-Skylerville
Forecast: We’ll spread in rolling exotic play but otherwise pass this challenging maiden juvenile filly affair that is filled with highly regarded and expensive prospects. The C. Brown entry (Consumer Spending, McKulick) looks formidable in no small part due to getting two beautifully-bred fillies on your ticket for the price of one. ‘Spending is a quick-actioned daughter of More Than Ready that has done everything asked of her in the a.m. despite the slow final times of her drills, while stable mate McKulick, a daughter of Frankel, also has been impressive in the a.m. and may even be the better of the two. Penny Saver has the benefit of a prior run - a willing runner-up effort sprinting on dirt at Churchill Downs in a hot race in mid-June - and seems likely to be on or near the lead from her inside draw. She’s bred more for dirt than turf but if she gets loose on the lead and then relaxes she’ll take this field a very long way. Love to Run is an athletic filly with flawless action and brought $640,000 at the OBS April sale. Her breeze time during the preview session (:10 2/5) wasn’t noteworthy but she moves like a route type and half-brother Thanks Mr. Eidson is an excellent turf performer in California. Skylerville hails from a barn that has superior stats with debut runners (26% with a massive ROI) and this daughter of Air Force Blue shows a :59 1/5 breeze over a wet training track last month that tells us she can run.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Kreesa La Wrote; 4-U Should B Dancing
Forecast: State-bred older maiden fillies and mares sprint five and one-half furlongs on turf in a race in which many of these know each other pretty well. The two listed above finished second and third, respectively, in a similar affair here last month and both should run well again today. U Should Be Dancing already has had eight chances and probably isn’t one to totally trust but she’s been in the frame in her last two and has a bit more tactical speed than her main rival to give her a slight edge. The daughter of War Dancer hasn’t left cleanly in her last two starts but with a smooth break today should be in the fray throughout. Kreesa La Wrote will be running on late and won’t need to improve much to win. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we won’t otherwise get too involved in.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: B
Single: 3-Harper’s in Charge
Forecast: Harper’s in Charge was very impressive breaking her maiden at first asking last November at Aqueduct but then disappeared. She returned in a hot allowance race last month and showed excellent speed for half while dueling with subsequent Test S.-G1 winner Bella Sofia (good luck with that) before fading readily in what at the time was a disappointing comeback. Today, it doesn’t look so bad. The daughter of Malibu Moon has had two nice drills since that race, so we’re going to give the C. Clement-trained filly another chance, especially in a race in which her early speed should allow separation from the others during the early stages. With the switch to J. Rosario, we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Majestic Tiger; 3-Sonic Speed; 10-Masked Marauder
Forecast: This sprint for older maiden claimers has the look of a grass grab bag, so we’ll spread hoping to get a nice price home. Masked Marauder, listed at 8-1 on the morning line, makes his first start since being claimed for $40,000 by W. Potts (solid stats with this angle) and the barn also does very well with the route-to-sprint maneuver so we’re expecting the 3-year-old gelding to step forward in this modest affair. Perhaps most effective if held up early and allowed to run late, the son of Palace Malice has numbers that fit and a projected race flow that should compliment his style. Majestic Tiger, at 5-1 on the morning line, was beaten a nose in his only prior outing at this level (his debut), and after chasing much stronger straight maiden company in his last pair the S. Asmussen-trained gelding seems likely to return to good form against this group. The son of Majestic City lacks tactical speed, so from the rail he’ll require some luck to secure clear sailing when launching his bid. Sonic Speed offers long shot value at 10-1 on the morning. He has a race to go back to last year when second in straight maiden company that would win this, and though he’s been disappointing since then the Maclean’s Music gelding shows a recent healthy work tab that could signal a return to form.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Free Chickens; 7-Fabulous Fanny; 10-Mommasgottarun
Forecast: Fabulous Fanny turned in the most impressive breeze of the entire Timonium 2-year-old in training sale when smoking a quarter mile around the bullring in 21 2/5 seconds without undue pressure and then galloping out full of run and taking the tight turns with ease. The daughter of Union Rags hasn’t been asked for speed since joining the S. Asmussen barn (no need to), but she does show a 47 2/5 breezing gate drill at Keeneland last month that was the fourth fastest of 60 for the distance. She’s 4-1 on the morning line and will offer plenty of wagering value at or near that price. For protection, we’ll include on our ticket two others that have caught our eye. Mommasgottarun, comfortably drawn outside, is a first-timer bred for intense speed (Maclean’s Music) and has looked good in the a.m. without being asked for her best. The T. Amoss barn is strong with debut runners, so we’re expecting a major effort. Free Chickens look good breezing a furlong in :10 flat at the OBS April sale and goes for trainer J. Abreu, who has a remarkable record with first-time starters (28% with a huge ROI). As a daughter of Blame, she’s not likely to display the early speed that some of the others have but could make some noise from off the pace in the closing stages.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: X
Use: 3-Viadera; 7-Regal Glory
Forecast: Viadera knows how to win the close ones – she’s taken her last three outings by margins of a neck, a neck, and a nose – an though she hasn’t been out since her victory in the Matriarch S.-G1 last November at Del Mar, the C. Brown-trained mare has trained well enough on the comeback trail to be fit and ready for this year’s renewal of the De La Rose S. Her stable mate Regal Glory is the one to fear most. Freshened since early June, she was in company with our top pick in a July 31 grass workout (5f, 1:00.3b TC TT) and more than held her own, though Viadera was going a tad easier and appeared best. We’ll include both in our rolling exotic play and then press with Viadera on top.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B+
Use: 7-Wicked Halo; 9-Microbiome
Forecast: Wicked Halo was highly impressive winning her debut at Lone Star Park in a fast, highly-rated affair (beating two next out winners) and then lost nothing in defeat when setting sizzling fractions from the rail before understandably weakening close home when third in the Debutante S. at Churchill Downs. Drawn towards the outside in today’s Adirondack S.-G2, the daughter of Gun Runner looks clearly the quickest in the field and if she’s not forced to go the opening quarter in :21 flat like last time the daughter of Gun Runner should be hard to catch. b>Microbiome, ideally drawn just outside our top pick, was a visually pleasing winner of her first start over the local main track last month when setting soft splits and then quickening when asked. She’ll have to stalk and pounce today, but if so she’ll have dead aim and every chance to catch ‘Halo. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Wicked Halo.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B-
Use: 5-Con Lima; 6-Rockey Sky; 7-Creative Flair
Forecast: Half the field in this year’s edition of the Saratoga Oaks Invitational-G1 has a genuine chance to win, and the other half isn’t far behind. Trips will tell the tale. Con Lima projects to be the controlling speed again, just as she was in the recent Belmont Oaks-G1, though Euro shipper Creative Flair may have to be dealt with. In that race, she may have gone too slow on the front end, reducing the race to a quarter of amile sprint to the wire which played into the hands of the eventual winner, Santa Barbara. Today’s affair is a sixteenth of a mile shorter, so the T. Pletcher-trained filly could be hard to catch if not guzzled early. Creative Flair is a quality filly from France who was most recently third in a photo in the Prix Chloe-G3 at Chantilly. She’s been on the front end in her recent races but certainly should be capable of winning with a stalk and pounce trip if required. Rocky Sky, in from Ireland where she romped in her only grass outing after beginning her career with three starts on the all-weather, has been here for a while and has trained very well for C. Brown. She could easily be this good. These are the three we’ll be using in rolling exotic play, but you may find the need to spread even deeper.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Albie; 10-Chrome Dixie
Forecast: Albie was more than four lengths clear of the rest (including a next-out winner) when runner-up in a restricted $35,000 claimer in late June last time out and today is protected in a sign of confidence in this first-level state-bred affair over a mile on the inner course. His numbers have improved since joining the D. Gargan barn three races back and with another forward move today the son of Alpha should be hard to beat. Chrome Dixie shows a steadily improving pattern for C. Clement and may be the one to fear most, his extreme outside post notwithstanding. His one prior two-turn attempt was filled with trouble, so toss that race out. Based on pedigree there’s no reason this son of California Chrome shouldn’t enjoy today’s extra distance.
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Jerry Shottenkirk: My Early Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Gulfstream
August 8, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
I'm flipping the Gulfstream Park card upside down Sunday and am going after the Early Pick 4, beginning with the second race and ending with the fifth.
The fourth race is a handicap and marks the return of sharp runner Trophy Chaser, but there are several others with talent and are in good form. The sequence also has an allowance optional claiming race, a maiden optional claiming event and a maiden claiming race.
The suggested ticket amounts to $60 and has a 3x5x4x2 strategy, and here’s a look:
2th Race (1:24 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming)
LAST LEAF was quite sharp last time as he coasted to the lead and was a clear winner. It was his second start after debuting with a runner-up finish.
This will be his strongest test as he goes against winners, and the six-furlong distance will be his longest attempt. His fractional times have been good, and he’ll likely battle from the first stride out of the gate.
There are others with impressive credentials as they’ve begun their careers, and he’ll have to work to get it.
Others on the ticket: CAJUN COUSIN, YEARS AGO.
3rd Race (1:58 p.m. ET, maiden optional claiming)
CRYSTAL LAGOON rates an edge in a maiden optional claiming race, which is a condition you don’t see all the time. She was in a similar spot last time and her connections used the ‘no claim’ option, and she’s under the same circumstances today. This time she turns back from a mile to six furlongs.
Looks like the Super Saver filly could prefer the sprint anyway and likely will run a good one for newly inducted National Racing Hall of Famer Mark Casse.
This is a lightly raced group, and several have good works. We’ll spread out in this slot on the ticket.
Others on the ticket: TIZ IMPRESSIVE, WALKS LIKE A LADY, KHOZMORE, STARSHIP NUGGET.
4th Race (2:32 p.m. ET, handicap)
TROPHY CHASER has been away from the races since May 2020 and has been highly regarded since he first put down timed workouts in his youth. He continues to be a dazzler in the morning (:46 2-5 breeze last week) and Juan Avila has given him a long list of drills for his comeback.
There is little doubt the graded stakes-placed Twirling Candy horse has the class, but the year-plus layoff puts others in the mix as well. Plenty of runners are in good form in this handicap are usable in this leg of the sequence.
Others on the ticket: PUDDING, DOUBLE CROWN, JACKSON.
5th Race (3:06 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)
FUN LOADED gets his first chance to stretch out after four sprints, and his third-place finish for a slightly higher price last out will put him right in the thick of things here. He showed a willingness to run well without trying for the lead, and that will come in handy going the two turns.
Trainer Saul Matos has a 3 of 11 record and this will make his second third start of the year after a switch in barns.
Others on the ticket: STATEN ISLAND.
Gulfstream Park 50-cent Early Pick 4 (races 2-5):
2) #2 Last Leaf, #3 Cajun Cousin, #6 Years Ago.
3) #1 Tiz Impressive, #2 Crystal Lagoon, #3 Walks Like a Lady, #6 Khozmore, #10 Starship Nugget.
4) #1 Trophy Chaser, #2 Pudding, #3 Double Crown, #5 Jackson.
5) #7 Fun Loaded, #8 Staten Island.
Suggested ticket: 2-3-6 with 1-2-3-6-10 with 1-2-3-5 with 7-8 ($60).
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Arlington - Race #4
Arlington - Race #7
Picks Notes #2 Mongol Bull He's still turning in good efforts at age 11, and he might be able to land a good pressing trip in here while tracking the rail runner. #1 Dive Deep Pace stopped badly in that last one but now gets back to the grass, and this has been his best footing throughout his short career. Chance to wake up, but probably at an underlaid price. #4 Boom Box He has always been a bit more reliable as an underneath player, but his best stuff keeps him in the mix with this group. Something like the last one fits. Race Summary Mongol Bull should trip out here from close range, and his recent form makes him the one to beat. Hoping the rail runner takes cash for the top team.
Arlington - Race #3
Picks Notes #11 Battle Scars He gets in light for this debut while bringing a solid pedigree with him. The barn doesn't always fire big first time out, but the price might be right here. #6 Clyde's Green Go He ran a big one off the bench last time out when missing with similar, and he can be very tough if he can run right back to that or even move forward in this second start off the layoff. #8 Lascari He'll race as a gelding for the first time while starting off the September layoff, and his baseline form fits well here if he's ready to go. Race Summary Battle Scars may eventually want to go longer, but he might get a bit overlooked in a race where some of the main players might not be finishing with a ton of punch late.
Picks Notes #1 Rare Action Attack She has some proving to do on class here, but she might get the right kind of trip with her good tactical pace from the inside. A couple of outside pace players might lead to a dreamy trip. #3 Juju's Specialgirl She's a reliable type, but she's probably overbet in this spot for the top team, and she has been settling for some underneath pieces in recent tries and might once again here. #2 Hey Hey She's better than she showed in the last one, but she's going to have to bounce back after a couple of pretty dull tries. Not impossible. Race Summary Rare Action Attack should be able to stay in touch in the early stages, and she has been solid in a handful of turf starts in her career. Something like the 9/2 ML price would feel fair.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Del Mar - Race #6
Del Mar - Race #7
Picks Notes #4 Rock N Rye Showed considerable improvement for an easy win in his second start and comes in with probably the sharpest effort of any in here; Rispoli picks up the mount and this colt is ready for another big one. #2 Trip to Spain Was clear at once in his debut and coasted home; Frey picks up the mount and can get him in good shape from the outset. #5 Northvale Road Hasn't shown a great deal of early speed, and that could work in his favor; likely will welcome the additional distance. Race Summary Rock N Rye stretches out after an eye-opening 4.5-furlong score at Santa Anita; has worked steadily since that win on May 30 and looms as the one to beat in this restricted stakes event.
Del Mar - Race #9
Picks Notes #2 Bad Beat Brian Closed very well for third in his first over this turf course and probably needed the trip; can improve in his first off the claim for Maker. #5 Tigerhon Was an allowance winner at Newcastle (GB) in his latest, which came in December; has worked well for Glatt. #6 Torosay Hasn't been out for 11 months and ended 2020 with a good third in the G3 Green Flash; was second in his last effort at this level. Race Summary Bad Beat Brian just missed with his strong rally last out and can kick it in gear earlier this time. Maker hitting 22 percent in first off claim, and this one can add to the trainer's numbers.
Picks Notes #5 Zoffarelli Has five seconds in seven starts and should improve with distance; makes his first U.S. start after running in Great Britain. #3 Hudson Ridge Baffert charge has taken a liking to two-turn turf races and broke his maiden in the Cinema Stakes two back and followed with an optional claiming win. #4 Cathkin Peak Won the Eddie Logan and has two wins and a second in three two-turn turf races; firmly in the mix. Race Summary Zoffarelli has never run a bad one and looks ready to try longer distances; lands in a good spot for his first effort in America.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Arlington
Arlington - Race 2 Maiden Claiming $25,000 • 5 Furlongs • All-Weather • Age 2 • CR: 72 • Purse: $18,500 • Post: 3:02P FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SUBURBAN COURT is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SUBURBAN COURT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. MICHAEL COLLINS: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return on investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts). STAR ON THE MAP: Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. SUBURBAN COURT STAR ON THE MAP MICHAEL COLLINS LIFE IS GRAND VITALE
Unknown Running Style: LIFE IS GRAND (10/1) [Jockey: Tavares Javier - Trainer: Delong Ben], MICHAEL COLLINS (4/1) [Jockey: Lopez Albert - Trainer: DiVito James P], VITALE (5/1) [Jockey: Lopez Jose E - Trainer: Block Chris M], STAR ON THE MAP (2/1) [J
Line
Class
Speed
FigureSUBURBAN COURT Front-runner RICHIE'S PALACE Alternator/Stalker
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
Camarero - Race 2 Claiming $20,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 93 • Purse: $8,100 • Post: 3:10P FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 23, 2021 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 8, 2021 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 8, 2021 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SERVED COLD is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SERVED COLD: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FRAN'S SALSA : Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. NOWITNA RIVER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top thre e in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SERVED COLD FRAN'S SALSA NOWITNA RIVER
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Class
Speed
FigureSERVED COLD Front-runner FRAN'S SALSA Stalker SWIRRLIE SHIRLIE Stalker WICKED TITLE Trailer NOWITNA RIVER Trailer
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Malad
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - Maiden - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $4800 Class Rating: 68
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR IDAHO BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 3 TELL TAC 4/5
# 4 T HEART BONUS ROUND 2/1
# 1 SHINY CLASS 6/1
TELL TAC is my choice. He has been running well and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the most respectable in this group. Marin ought to be able to get this gelding to break out early in this event. Must be in form if the conditioner is bringing him back so quickly. T HEART BONUS ROUND - Will probably come out very strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved quickly to the front end recently. Could best this group based on the Equibase speed fig - 68 - of her last contest. SHINY CLASS - With a nice Equibase class rating average of 70, has one of the most competitive class advantages in this field.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ruidoso Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Allowance - 550y on the Dirt. Purse: $28500 Class Rating: 88
QUARTER HORSE 550Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR TRIAL. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 6 EXHALTED SPIRIT 5/1
# 3 JM FEAR FACTOR 12/1
# 2 RATATATTAT 8/5
EXHALTED SPIRIT looks to be a very strong contender. He ought to be given a shot given the quite good speed numbers. The speed figure of 90 from his last contest looks respectable in here. With a reliable 85 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's competition. JM FEAR FACTOR - Ought to compete soundly in the pace battle which bodes well with this group. Should keep the good string of finishes intact this time out. RATATATTAT - Is a contender - given the 87 speed rating from his most recent race. Has been running in the most competitive company of the group of horses lately.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Golden Gate Fields - Race #3 - Post: 2:45pm - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 78
Rating:
#5 SLEIGHT OF HOOF (ML=9/2)
#2 MOORE STREET WISE (IRE) (ML=7/2)
SLEIGHT OF HOOF - Great chance for this steed. Big late speed and should have good position. Lets try to beat the favorites with this gelding. Just missed last out, but ran a decent race. MOORE STREET WISE (IRE) - The horse with the top average Equibase class figure in turf events is usually a solid play. This thoroughbred fits the bill. Taking a trip down in the class scale; has the capability to make his presence felt. Don't throw this one out due to his last affair at NAA where he ran eighth on the soft turf. Should improve this time around. I know the outfit is serious today. The gelding gets Lasix for the 1st time.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SPECIAL MISSION (ML=9/5), #6 THATSABADBOY (ML=2/1), #1 CROWN THE LAKERS (ML=8/1),
SPECIAL MISSION - The speed figure last time out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a vulnerable competitor. THATSABADBOY - This gelding didn't do much last time out. CROWN THE LAKERS - Difficult to take this questionable contender at this price after the result (sixth) in the last race. Finished sixth in his most recent effort with a common speed rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this group.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - MOORE STREET WISE (IRE) - With success at a major track abroad, this foreign gelding looks to strut his stuff here today.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #5 SLEIGHT OF HOOF on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Skip SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:None
Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga
08/08/21, SAR, Race 7, 4.29 ET
08/08/21,SAR,7,1M [Inner Turf] 1:32:00 STAKES. Fasig-Tipton De La Rose Stakes. Purse $120,000. INNER TURF FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A GRADED SWEEPSTAKE IN 2021. This is a Non-Lasix race pursuant to 4043.2 (7)(e)(5) Lasix not permitted within 48 hours of post time. By subscription of $120 each which should accompany the nomination; $600 to pass the entry box and an additional $600 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental payment of $1,200 along with the entry and starting fees may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. The purse to be divided 55% to the winner, 20% to second, 12% to third, 6% to fourth, 4% to fifth and 3% divided equally amongst the remaining finishers. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners of a Graded Sweepstake on the turf in 2020 allowed 2 lbs.; of a Sweepstake other than state-bred in 2021 allowed 4 lbs.; of a Sweepstake in 2020 other than state-bred or two races other than maiden, claiming, starter or State-Bred allowance in 2021 allowed 6 lbs. The New York Racing Association reserves the right to transfer this race to the Main Track. A presentation will be made to the winning owner. Closed Saturday, July 24, 2021 with 24 Nominations. (Rail at 18 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 27.66, ROI 1.04/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI 100.0000 2 Shifty She 8/1 Ortiz. Jr. I Joseph. Jr. Saffie A. J 107 25.23 1.56/$1 097.7863 5 Raven's Cry (IRE) 10/1 Saez L Cox Brad H. TL 121 28.10 1.50/$1 097.4828 3 Viadera (GB) 6/5 Rosario J Brown Chad C. SC 121 28.10 1.50/$1 096.7095 4 Star Command 20/1 Franco M McGaughey III Claude R 107 25.23 1.56/$1 096.1823 7 Regal Glory 9/5 Ortiz J L Brown Chad C. E 121 28.10 1.50/$1 096.1123 1 Hendy Woods 6/1 Gaffalione T Casse Mark E. W 121 28.10 1.50/$1 093.8789 6 Belle Laura 12/1 Lezcano J Casse Norm W. 121 28.10 1.50/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -2.2137
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Turf] Not Morning Line Favorite(not entry)
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 35.44, ROI 1.26/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI 100.0000 5 Raven's Cry (IRE) 10/1 Saez L Cox Brad H. TWL 224 34.82 1.20/$1 099.3510 2 Shifty She 8/1 Ortiz. Jr. I Joseph. Jr. Saffie A. JS 224 34.82 1.20/$1 096.5868 6 Belle Laura 12/1 Lezcano J Casse Norm W. 224 34.82 1.20/$1 095.8424 4 Star Command 20/1 Franco M McGaughey III Claude R 224 34.82 1.20/$1 094.9824 1 Hendy Woods 6/1 Gaffalione T Casse Mark E. 224 34.82 1.20/$1 093.6583 7 Regal Glory 9/5 Ortiz J L Brown Chad C. E 180 35.56 1.26/$1 093.5700 3 Viadera (GB) 6/5 Rosario J Brown Chad C. C 180 35.56 1.26/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -0.6490
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] Race Age Not 3
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