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Al Cimaglia: Pocono Downs Pick 5 Analysis
August 15, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Pocono Downs has a 14-race card ready to go with a 5:00 EST post time. The headliners are 2-year-old colts and geldings competing in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes action. The 0.20 Pick 5 begins in Race 8, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 8
1-Warrawee Ubeaut (2-1)-Burke trainee has been in post draw hell in all 4 starts this year and has been facing top mares. This is a soft spot and from the rail Gingras should take control off the gate and make every call a winning one.
Race 9
1-Good Deal (5/2)-Burke pupil makes its PcD debut and Kakaley takes a seat for the 1st time, as Gingras steers the one below. That move raises doubts but #3 has never raced on a smaller oval so will use with this post draw.
3-My Miki Beach (9/2)-Well-bred 2-year-old ships in from Mohawk and Gingras will steer for the Fine barn. Showed good gate speed and might be better suited for a shorter stretch.
4-Aladdin Hanover (6-1)-Dunn is the usual pilot and he is back between the pipes after missing a start. Finally draws inside and could be in the hunt at the wire at a solid price if gets a good early seat.
Race 10
1-Birthday (7/2)-Gingras chooses the Captaintreacherous colt #3, even though this freshman has had more success. Kakaley should get away quickly to get a good seat and could win right back.
2-Wearinmysixshooter (5/2)-Comes off a dull effort on 7-18 but before then was a winner in 2 straight, one coming at PcD. Should be a major player if dialed on high as Dunn takes over for Tetrick. Maybe being off almost a month will be beneficial.
4-I Did It Myway (8/5)-The morning line choice does look the part with a perfect 4-4 record. Has won on the 5/8's but hasn't raced at PcD and has been on the engine in every start. Will respect connections and include but will look to others at a better price.
Race 11
2-Hecandancencruise (4-1)-Has raced well in both races here and took a picture last week. This Harder pupil looks versatile and with the right steer by Todd McCarthy he can take another trip to the winner's circle.
3-Captain Cowboy (5/2)-Raced last on 7-18 and won that start as well as his 1st race and made it look easy both times. This could be a bigger challenge but should be a main player.
4-Mind Hunter (7/2)-Took advantage of a smooth trip with soft fractions to break maiden in last but could have more in the tank. George Naps can put this Ryder trainee into play and should offer a fair price.
Race 12
1-JM's Finaltreasure (8/5)-Gingras should be able to get on the point and take control. But this Sweet Lou 2-year-old could win without an early lead.
4-Market Based (5/2)-This colt won both starts at PcD and has shown some good speed. If stays trotting, Dunn could work a trip and pose a big threat to #1.
0.20 Pick 5
1/1,3,4/1,2,4/2,3,4/1,4
Total Bet=$10.80
Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Gulfstream
August 15, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
Gulfstream Park's Late Pick Four features a pair of allowance optional claiming races that feature runners in good form and some that have the class but come in off long layoffs.
The sequence fires up in the seventh race and ends with the 10th. The suggested ticket this week tops out at $72. Here's a look:
7th Race (4:14 p.m. ET, optional claiming allowance)
PALOMITA has been on the shelf since December and goes from Chad Brown to David Fawkes stable. Has a long list of workouts for her return and is probably ready for some afternoon action.
She didn’t win last year as she raced against top-flight company in Kentucky and New York, but she held her own as she was on the board in six of seven and was second five times. Inactivity would be the only reason to try to beat her, and that’s always a question.
On her best day, she should romp against these, but there’s a question if she can have it be her best day with the time off. A couple of others are worth a look as well.
Others on the ticket: LORILOUPIES, AWESOME ANNMARIE.
8th Race (4:48 p.m. ET, claiming)
MONTANA MAN takes a class drop that could very well put him over the top. He’s twice been claimed for $50,000, most recently two races back by Happy Alter. He was second in an allowance optional claiming last out and takes a drop in claiming price and is now eligible to be claimed for 40 percent of the price he had on his head when haltered.
That should be an attention getter and a reason to shop around in this one. While Montana Man clearly has the talent to win, but he's in the bargain bin for the day as far as claiming price goes.
Others on the ticket: BUENISIMO, THENORTHREMEMBERS, TELLINGTON.
9th Race (5:22 p.m., optional claiming allowance)
GLORY OF FLORIDA is on again, off again and tried the turf in the Mr. Steele last time. It didn’t work out as he finished sixth, and now he’s back to allowance optional claiming on dirt. He’s a decent miler, as he’s been first or second in eight of 15 attempts as the distance. There are several to seriously consider, and in the interest of not letting the ticket price getting out of hand, I’ve settled on a trio of runners.
Others on the ticket: COOL ARROW, QUENANE.
10th Race (5:56 p.m., claiming)
GUACO rates the slight edge in a mile race for conditioned bottom claimers, and this one could require a handful of numbers to get it done on the ticket. He takes a class drop and moves over to the dirt, has taken on much better, and his form could get a nice boost today. Still, this looks like a spread race, and three others are included.
Others on the ticket: HERE COMES BULLET, ALASTOR, EXCALIBUR.
Gulfstream Park 50-cent Late Pick 4:
7) #3 Loriloupies, #4 Awesome Annmarie, #7 Palomita.
8) #2 Buenisimo, #4 Thenorthremembers, #6 Tellington, #10 Montana Man.
9) #5 Cool Arrow, #6 Glory of Florida, #7 Quenane.
10) #2 Here Comes Bullet, #3 Alastor, #8 Guaco, #11 Excalibur.
Ticket: 3-4-7 with 2-4-6-10 with 5-6-7 with 2-3-8-11 ($72).
Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - Sunday, August 15, 2021
August 15, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 6-Miss Kitness; 8-Smiling Annie
Forecast: The Sunday opener is an absolute mess, a $25,000 claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares. Simply stated, it’s not a race we’d prefer to get involved in, so we’ll tread lightly using just two price chances in our rolling exotics. Miss Kitness tries grass for the first time while returning off a six month layoff for a low profile but very capable outfit, and with a sharp recent gate drill (4f, :47.2hg) and the presence of good bug girl J. Pyfer in the saddle this daughter of Competitive Edge should display the kind of early speed that is dangerous in these abbreviated turf sprints. She’s never been fast on numbers – that’s primarily why she’s a big price – but perhaps at this distance on this surface off a vacation while getting in light will all add up to a career top effort. Smiling Annie has never had much luck over the Del Mar turf course – she’s hit the board once in five starts – but the veteran mare has been chasing first-level allowance optional claiming state-bred foes recently and based strictly on speed figures should be much more competitive against this group. The M. Glatt-trained mare projects to be in a good pace-stalking/prompting position and remain a strong factor to the wire in a race with suspect late speed.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 5-Thirsty Chapo; 6-Sauls Call; 9-Toasted At Dawn
Forecast: Sauls Call shows up in a claimer for the first time and will greatly appreciate this softer assignment. Assuming he breaks well, the son of Stay Thirsty should find himself on or near the lead throughout, and while he’s always been suspect in the final furlong, he can be capable of hanging on against this group. Thirsty Chapo, runner-up in both starts, is a contender even if he doesn’t improve much, though his numbers did rise between his first and second starts, so he may step forward again. Toasted At Dawn is also progressing with experience. He’s still pretty slow on figs but may go better today in his first start in blinkers. At 12-1 on the line, you can toss him in.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Gidgetta; 5-Fantasy Heat; 7-Five Pics Please
Forecast: Gidgetta exits graded stakes company and shortens to a sprint, so the lightly-raced daughter of Fast Anna appears properly spotted to regain her best form in a stronger-than-par race. The R. Baltas-trained mare projects to be in a second flight, stalking position and then have her chance from the top of the lane to the wire. The pace is expected to be quick, which will help her chances. Fantasy Heat, away for more than a year but a two-time winner over this course and distance, hails from a barn that is quite capable with comebackers and seems likely to draft into a stalking position similar to the type of trip that Gidgetta should enjoy. She’s run well off layoffs in the past, so we’re expecting a big effort from the veteran daughter of Unusual Heat. Five Pics Please displayed good speed before weakening in the much tougher Daisycutter S. last month but against this group should stick around a lot longer. She’s fast on figures, retains U. Rispoli, and offers some price value at 8-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: X
Single: 2-Paint Me Lucky
Forecast: Paint Me Lucky is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite in his third start of the year, the other two resulting in runner-up efforts as the chalk at this same maiden $20,000 level. The blinkers come off – maybe that will help – and he’s likely to be the controlling speed, so the B. Baffert-trained six-year-old gelding may finally earn his diploma. The son of Paynter won’t be offering any wagering value so you use him as a rolling exotic single, find something you think can beat him (there’s a few to choose from) or simply sit it out.
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Race 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Helens Well; 4-Liam’s Dove; 5-Hemmerle; 10-A Crown for Kitten
Forecast: Maidens meet over a mile on grass in a race that contains several promising 2-year-old fillies. Hemmerle is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite after a series of strong workouts that should have her plenty fit. A half-sister to the good local turf filly Dogtag from European champion Shamardal’s stakes-placed half-sister Diamond Necklace, she understandably makes her debut on turf, though she’s never had a chance to train on it. In her drills she displays a long stride with good late power, so we suspect she’ll take some beating. Helens Well had a prior run in Ireland in late May, finishing a close fourth (of 10) while earning experience that should serve her well today. The local dirt workouts indicate fitness, and the P. D’Amato barn has superior stats with these European imports, so you have to use her. Liam’s Dove is a bit intriguing at 8-1 on the morning line. Though she was well-beaten sprinting on dirt in a hot race in her debut last month, the daughter of Liam’s Map has returned to work well for P. Miller (always dangerous with the second-time stater angle) and given her comfortable draw this $120,000 OBS April purchase with a devout European turf bottom lime might clear this field early and prove troublesome. Also worth including, perhaps on a backup ticket, is A Crown for Kitten, a second-timer who moved about a furlong too soon while very wide in her debut and then lost her punch late when a fourth without changing leads in a decent race in her debut. With that effort behind her and with a patient ride today, the daughter of Kitten’s Joy has a right to display improvement.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: C
Use: 1-Pasito; 2-Traffic Stopper; 8-Flat Out Joy; 9-Angel’s Advocate
Forecast: There is nothing to trust in this $16,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares in a race in which the main contenders come from low percentage outfits. Negative angles appear in just above every entrant’s past performance chart. The 5/2 morning line favorite, Flat Out Joy, drops two levels in class and has numbers that can win, but she just finished second as the chalk despite a perfect trip and comes from a barn that is 1-for-44 this year. Pasito just missed at 35-1 in a similar event and gets an extra half furlong to work with, but she’s winless in six starts over the Del Mar main track and is buried on the rail without any tactical speed. Traffic Stopper has recent form that charts pretty well with these, but her trainer is 3-for-47 this year and the daughter of Stop Traffic has been off the board in all three of her local main track starts. Angel’s Advocate gets off the rail, had some early trouble in a better-than-looked last race and projects to enjoy a soft second flight trip outside. However, she’s a six-year-old mare with just five career outings. We can do this all day – a one step forward, two steps back analysis – while realizing that yes, somebody is going to finish first. The three listed above are most logical but you should include as many as your budget allows.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Leggs Galore; 7-Warren’s Showtime
Forecast: Warrens Showtime is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite and on pure form deserves to be after winning the Wilshire S.-G3 at Santa Anita in June and returning to listed California-bred company today. However, Leggs Galore recently has traded victories with ‘Showtime and is dangerous once again, especially in a race with a pace scenario that projects fairly soft. Furthermore, Leggs Galore is unbeaten in two prior outings over the Del Mar lawn and shows a bullet workout around dogs a couple of weeks ago (5f, 1:00.1h TC DU) that was fastest of 13. The winner should be one or the other but due to price considerations we’ll give Leggs Galore the edge on top.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 6-Leprino; 7-Causeididitmyway
Forecast: Leprino got the best of Causeididitmyway when they squared off in the first race on opening day last month, but it was the latter who did all the dirty when pressing the pace throughout while the former enjoyed a perfect, second flight trip outside to get the verdict close home while being greatly aided by the favorable outside lanes. They meet again on the one-level raise over a track that has played fair in the past few weeks, so let’s give Causeididitmyway a chance to turn the tables on his rival and put him on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: C
Use: 6-Seeking Refuge; 9-Liar Liar; 11-Sea of Liberty
Forecast: Here’s another nearly impossible handicapping puzzle in a race with nothing to trust, and that includes the logical top pick Liar Liar, just 2-for-15 in his career and a four-time beaten favorite in his most recent nine starts. The good news is that he was a close third at 17-1 in a stronger allowance optional/claimer over this course and distance last time out and likely will win this race with a similar effort. That said, Sea of Liberty is a more attractive gamble primarily because he’s listed at 10-1 on the morning line. The Boisterous gelding remains protected by P. Miller in what we’ll take as a sign of confidence and has prior speed figures that make him a major player. Furthermore, he was a closing fourth, albeit race-shape aided, in a fast state-bred first level allowance turf miler here last month. Seeking Refuge, freshened since mid-June, was a solid runner-up vs. similar at Santa Anita and is a prior winner over the local turf course, so we’re expecting a solid effort from him as well.
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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Sunday, August 15, 2021
August 15, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Good Skate; 8-Silipo
Forecast: Good Skate chased straight maidens in his debut, earning an okay speed figure when finishing a non-threatening fifth. What is concerning, though, is his failure to change leads despite repeated and aggressive efforts by I. Ortiz, Jr. to make him switch. Maybe L. Saez will have better luck today. This maiden $50,000 claimer for juveniles in a considerably softer spot, so with the addition of blinkers for a barn that has solid stats with second-time starters the son of American Freedom may have found his friends. The best of the newcomers could be Silipo, a son of Candy Ride that is realistically spotted for a good try first crack out of the box. Not the best of movers but training well enough to expect a decent effort against this group, the R. Astras-trained gelding lands the cozy outside post and projects to be well-placed with every chance. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but not with a great deal of confidence.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B-
Use: 8-Street Vendor; 9-Kiss the Sky; 10-Flip the Script
Forecast: Kiss the Sky was more than three lengths clear of the rest when second in his debut in a representative maiden juvenile turf router at Ellis Park last month and seems likely to produce a significant forward move with that effort behind him. The M. Maker barn has solid stats with the second-time starter angle, so unless there’s a better-than-average newcomer in this field the son of Twirling Candy should be set to earn his diploma. Flip the Script, certainly bred for grass (Temple City), finished a non-threatening third in an off-the-turf sprint at Belmont Park last month. Under the circumstances, it wasn’t a bad try for a colt who surely should improve with today’s much more favorable conditions. L. Saez stays aboard for T. Albertrani, whose record with second-time starters is decent enough. The first-timer Street Vendor, a $500,000 yearling purchase by Nyquist, comes from the T. Pletcher barn but hasn’t done anything particularly noteworthy in the a.m. He should, however, be fit enough under J. Rosario to make his presence felt in an open fray at 6-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Social Whirl; 10-Herald Angel
Forecast: We’ll try to survive and advance using just two in this challenging restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares, but the best advice is to use as many as your budget allows. Herald Angel, listed on the morning line at 9/2, shows up in a seller for the first time and projects to enjoy a good stalking trip from her far outside post position. Though she won a straight maiden in gate-to-wire fashion, the daughter of Exaggerator might enjoy stalking tactics just behind the need-the-leads that are drawn inside. At this level, she should be able capitalize on that type of trip for the high percentage M. Maker/I. Ortiz, Jr. trainer-jockey combo. Social Whirl earned a career top speed figure when graduating over this course and distance vs. maiden $40,000 foes last month. She took heat and then drew clear late in good style, and while another forward move likely will be required today the daughter of Freud seems to be a progressive sort and is worth using at 5-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: X
Single: Water’s Edge
Forecast: Water’s Edge is 50 cents on the dollar on the morning line after crushing a good maiden field with a huge speed figure in his second career start last month at Belmont Park. Simply stated, the New York-bred son of Candy Ride will win by himself if he achieves a similar number today. The rail is always a concern but if he leaves cleanly the D. Donk-trained colt should be on or near the lead and then go on with it when asked. He’s a no-value, rolling exotic single in a race that is otherwise unplayable.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade:
Single: 4-Jester Calls Nojoy
Forecast: There are some nice fillies in this race – Knowing Glance and Tap N Glo already have shown legitimate ability in the afternoon – but Jester Calls Nojoy has done the type of work in the a.m. that stamps her as an exceptional prospect. Listed in our Clocker’s “Primed and Ready” list a couple of weeks ago, the T. Pletcher-trained juvenile has displayed intense speed leading up to her debut, breezing in every workout and always finishing with something in reserve. Her two recent gate works, both in company, were especially impressive and could have earned much faster times if she hadn’t had the proverbial piano in her mouth every step of the way. With a clean break (as she’s done in the morning), the daughter of Maclean’s Music should take control early and never look back, so at 7/2 on the morning line she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Write This Down; 3-Black Licorice
Forecast: Write This Down walked out of the gate and then produced a willing late bid to wind up third in a similar maiden $40,000 affair over seven furlongs in late June at Belmont Park. More importantly, she was claimed by R. Atras, who brings her back in an abbreviated sprint with a healthy series of recent workouts that should her set for a significant forward move. With the first-off-the-claim angle, Atras hits at a remarkable 34% with a massive ROI, so the question isn’t whether this Frosted filly will improve, but rather by how much. Black Licorice returns off a long layoff – she’s been gone since last October – and could easily be a better type this time around after finishing far back with a rough trip in a maiden special weight race. The work tab looks good for M. Maker, who employs his “go to” rider T. Gaffalione, so at 5-1 on the morning line she’s a “must use.” These are the two we’ll be including in a wide open affair in which nothing would surprise. If you feel the need to throw in a few more, go right ahead.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade:
Use: 5-Mira Mission; 7-Never Explain; 8-Treason
Forecast: Never Explain and Mira Mission, two-three finishers in a similar entry-level allowance affair, meet again in this nine-furlong inner turf course event. ‘Mission had a rough trip in that race, lacking room at the critical stage of the stretch run, but with clear sailing today he should be capable of producing a winning late kick. ‘Explain overcame a wide trip to vie for the lead midway and then stayed on gamely; the Street Sense colt was making just his fourth career start and certainly can be capable of stepping forward again. Treason was as a clever debut winner at Belmont Park in June but didn’t get the best of trips when unplaced in his next outing in a tough affair the following month. Today’s extra furlong should allow for softer early fractions and enable the son of Constitution to secure a good second flight trip. He’s 6-1 on the morning line and is worth including on your ticket at that price.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Subsidiary; 4-Mongolian Humor; 7-Absolute Love
Forecast: Absolute Love has won her last pair and three out of her last four starts, and even better than that she makes her first since being claimed by R. Atras, who hits at 34% with a powerful ROI with the first-off-the-claim angle. She’s been primarily a two-turn specialist throughout her career, but this turn back to an extended sprint shouldn’t be an issue, nor should the one-level raise in class to the $16,000 claiming ranks. Mongolian Humor, an easy winner over this track and distance for $12,500 last month, moves up a level following a claim for new trainer R. Diodoro, who like Atras shows spectacular stats with this maneuver (26% with powerful flat-bet profit). The daughter of Drosselmeyer projects to settle in mid-pack and then blast home, just as she did last time. Subsidiary is a route-to-sprint class dropper being reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr., and has the kind of early speed that makes her dangerous at this level. You have to use her somewhere.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Tuscan Queen; 7-Goin’ Good; 8-Bye Bye
Forecast: The Galway S., a listed affair for sophomore fillies sprinting on turf, has several possibilities in the 10-runner field. Finding the favorite may be just as difficult as finding the winner. Tuscan Queen, listed at 6-1 on the morning line, looked quite good breaking her maiden over this course and distance last month, doing so with an exceptional turn of foot from the top of the lane to the wire that produced a more than four length victory. The number was strong, so while this clearly is a tougher spot the daughter of Street Boss could be up to the task at a nice price. Goin’ Good has won her last pair while pressing the pace and then finding more under pressure close home. A versatile sort who has won on grass and over a sloppy track, the B. Cox-trained daughter of Congrats can be counted on for another honest effort and must be used, though her speed figures aren’t any better than several of these. Bye Bye disappointed a bit when failing to stay a mile after making the running in the Wild Applause S. on grass at Belmont Park in mid-June, but after a couple of months of freshening and a turn back to an abbreviated sprint the daughter of Into Mischief could easily snap back to winning form. J. Rosario should have in the second flight, ready to pounce. We’ll try to get by using just these three in rolling exotic play with the gamble at the price going to Tuscan Queen.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Summer in the City; 5-Mirabell Mei; 10-Sengekontacket; 12-Italian Twin
Forecast: The nightcap is an inscrutable middle distance inner turf claimer for fillies and mares. Spread as deeply as you can. Sengekontacket, a first-off-the-claim play for capable C, Summers, switches to J. Rosario and may improve enough to produce a winning late kick. She has several back numbers that are par for this level, so at 8-1 on the morning line she represents a decent price in a field loaded with possibilities. Italian Twin is hung far outside in post position 12 but has shown a good late kick on occasion and with some help up front could make some noise in the final furlong at 6-1 on the morning line. Summer in the City, freshened for two months and exiting a pair of tougher starter’s allowance events, retains I. Ortiz, Jr. and has enough tactical speed to secure a good stalking trip and then have every chance from there. Mirabell Mei has numbers that fit and is another with a dangerous late kick, though she’s never run particularly well (in three starts) over the Saratoga lawn.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Golden Gate - Race #3
Golden Gate - Race #7
Picks Notes #6 Silver Claim No price to be had here, but this guy should be very tough to get past if he is able to bring any of his baseline form in this spot. Still, he's rising in class and might get tested for the first time in a while. #3 Hong Kong Cowboy He seems like the most reasonable alternative if you're avoiding chalk in this one, but his turf sprint form leaves a bit to be desired. Not out of it. #1 Katzumoto The form can be hit or miss, but there are some decent enough running lines to suggest he can land an underneath piece from off the pace. Race Summary Silver Claim steps into protected company off a couple of easy wins over the main track here, and he's doing so off the claim for a very dangerous team.
Golden Gate - Race #10
Picks Notes #4 Cool Mountain Lad He hasn't done much wrong through three starts, and he'll be a fair price on the move into this tougher spot. Tactical type has a turf question to answer, but he's interesting if offering something near the 5/1 ML price. #2 Exhalting Worried that he's not going to offer a fair price in this spot, but he goes for a dangerous team and has some pace to put to use after a trio of fading efforts. Change of scenery wakes him up? #2 Pappy Boyington Tactical player should get the right kind of trip, but he was just okay in his only career turf try, and he's probably overbet. Capable underlay. Race Summary Cool Mountain Lad might get just a slight bit lost with a couple of other logical players lined up here, and he's in good form to try this hike.
Picks Notes #5 R M C Hook'em There is a decent bit of pace signed on in here, and this guy has some finishing ability that might bring him into the frame late at a price. #1 War Games Pace is capable of big efforts, but he'll have to go from the fence in a race with a couple of other forward players that might stack up outside of him. Price is probably unappealing. #7 In Our A Draws well for a good pressing trip, and he has some upside in this second start off a decent layoff dating back to earlier this year. Chance. Race Summary R M C Hook'em should get overlooked here, but he gets a pretty advantageous race shape in the hope that the pace will come back to him late.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Del Mar - Race #8
Del Mar - Race #1
Picks Notes #4 Cajun Treasure Closed strongly and just missed last time and has two wins and a second in his last three here; wins if he runs back to his last one. #6 Leprino Was up in time last out and has taken fourth of her last five; was claimed last out by Wong and is a legit threat to win another. #8 Royal Insider Occasionally has a strong closing move and takes a significant class drop; could wake up here. Race Summary Cajun Treasure briefly looked like a winner last time and can get a good trip just off the pace.
Del Mar - Race #7
Picks Notes #9 I'm the Hero Does her best when she gets clear early, and she'll have to send hard to over her post and should be able to clear; tough today. #2 Invincibella Didn't fire in his first one here, but he'd won two of his three leading up to that and can get back to good form. #3 Storming Lady Has been in much tougher races lately and can enjoy this significant class drop. Race Summary I'm the Hero should be a decent price and does well out front; five furlongs on turf is her best chance to last the distance.
Picks Notes #2 Leggs Galore Set the pace in the G3 Wilshire, was caught inside the sixteenth pole and held on for second; won the Fran's Valentine Stakes the last time she was in a California-bred race (like today). #7 Warren's Showtime Was up in time in the G3 Wilshire and got a good pace setup for her closing move; capable of a repeat. #4 Sedamar Has been off the pace in her last few and could take advantage of the fast pace. Race Summary Leggs Galore has the speed to get to the front and will be dangerous if she can back up the pace a bit.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
Camarero - Race 3 Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 70 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 3:35P FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON $6,000 SINCE AUGUST 15, 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 30, 2021 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 15, 2021 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 15, 2021 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SMART THINKING is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DOGTOWN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DRA GUNOV: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SENOR FRIDAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rati ng. DOGTOWN DRAGUNOV SENOR FRIDAY SMART THINKING
Line
Class
Speed
FigureSMART THINKING Front-runner DOGTOWN Alternator/Stalker DRAGUNOV Alternator/Stalker SENOR FRIDAY Alternator/Stalker NEAT STREET Alternator/Trailer CHANGING LEADS Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Emerald Downs
Emerald Downs - Race 9 Claiming $2,500 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $7,040 • Post: 6:21P FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2021 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.
Horse
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Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. ARDENLEE STAR is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ARDENLEE STAR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. HOT ENCOUNTER: Today i s a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. FAR WEST: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ran ks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GUARDINGTHEMONEY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ARDENLEE STAR HOT ENCOUNTER FAR WEST GUARDINGTHEMONEY
Line
Class
Speed
FigureARDENLEE STAR Front-runner HOT ENCOUNTER Alternator/Stalker FAR WEST Trailer GUARDINGTHEMONEY Alternator/Trailer CITY STEEL Alternator/Non-contender REGAZZE CAT Alternator/Non-contender DOCTOR BRUCE S. Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gillespie
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Maiden - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 60
QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 6 JUNOMYRATE JM 10/1
# 7 MY GYPSYS SHADOW 8/1
# 5 HANDSOM DEVON 5/1
My choice in this event is JUNOMYRATE JM and could score at a price in here. Will more than likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the halfway point of the affair. Has to be considered based on the very strong speed fig earned in the last outing. Alvarado has this gelding racing well and is a solid selection based on the respectable speed figures earned in longer quarter horse races lately. MY GYPSYS SHADOW - Garnered a strong Equibase Speed Fig in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. Has posted formidable Equibase Speed Figures in longer quarter horse races in the past. HANDSOM DEVON - Could best this field based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 51 - of his last affair. Demonstrates the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 53 speed figure which is one of the most respectable in this group.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Golden Gate Fields - Race #8 - Post: 5:33pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $36,000 Class Rating: 71
Rating:
#12 BANDERA AZTECA (ML=12/1)
#4 NORTH SEA (ML=4/1)
#3 NUESTRO ENGREIDO (ML=6/1)
#1 CRYSTAL BANDIT (ML=8/1)
BANDERA AZTECA - The insightful analyzers will point to this horse's solid pedigree. He's probably worth a solid investment. I like that this first-timer has been working over the Golden Gate Fields oval and makes his debut here today. This trainer has a fantastic ROI with 1st time starters. NORTH SEA - Jock hops up aloft after getting to know the fine animal by riding last time out. That's always a good indicator. This colt should be at the fitness peak, this far into his form cycle. A repeat of that most recent race on July 25th where he recorded a rating of 55 looks high enough to win in this race. NUESTRO ENGREIDO - This colt is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Rondan. CRYSTAL BANDIT - Utilizing this jockey/conditioner combination is a good move. This colt is number one in earnings per start. Take a good look at this horse in the paddock.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 LOVE'EM N LEAVE'EM (ML=5/2), #6 TEACH ME (ML=5/1), #8 ALOIS (ML=8/1),
LOVE'EM N LEAVE'EM - This steed will probably be pulling up the rear as this field crosses the finish line. TEACH ME - I just don't possess a positive sensation about this questionable contender in this affair. ALOIS - The Brain cautions me to keep away from thoroughbreds in sprint contests that haven't finished in the money in short distance races recently. This gelding didn't race too well last out. Poor early position in the early stages of the last route contest will probably make it tough to make an impression today in this sprint race.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #12 BANDERA AZTECA is the play if we get odds of 9/2 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Box [3,4,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:[4,12] with [1,3,4,12] with [1,3,4,12] with [1,2,3,4,9,12] with [1,2,3,4,9,12] Total Cost: $72
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Century Mile
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Maiden Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7500 Class Rating: 58
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,000. ALBERTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 1 NODIGGITYNODOUBT 3/1
# 8 SPORTSCARR 4/1
# 9 SILVER PRAIRIE 8/1
NODIGGITYNODOUBT is my choice. Should be given a chance for this race if only for the very good Equibase speed fig put up in the last race. Sound average speed figures in dirt sprint races make this animal a key contender. SILVER PRAIRIE - Could beat this group given the 52 Equibase Speed Figure recorded in his last outing.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Pimlico - Race #6 - Post: 3:30pm - Allowance - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $48,000 Class Rating: 84
Rating:
#12 SNOW FORECAST (ML=6/1)
#10 RAPIDASHQUEEN (ML=10/1)
#2 TRIKKI NIKKI (ML=15/1)
#11 CHROMEPLATED HEART (ML=12/1)
#4 BUCKEY'S CHARM (ML=20/1)
SNOW FORECAST - Correa was aboard this mare last time out and was impressed enough to take the animal right back. You'll be generating money left and right by turning your betting money onto this rider/handler combination. RAPIDASHQUEEN - I like to wager on this handicapping angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a nice race within the last 30 days. This mount could be tough today, especially since Silvera rode last time out and now should be better acquainted with this one. TRIKKI NIKKI - Filly shipped to this track and won; now goes for back-to-back wins. This filly is in good physical condition, having run a strong race on July 31st, finishing first. CHROMEPLATED HEART - The jockey and conditioner combination have a beneficial ROI when they join forces. This horse wins a lot of money per start. I believe she can increase the lifetime bankroll right here. BUCKEY'S CHARM - Faced tougher last time around the track at Pimlico. Based on class figures, this is a weaker group, so I will put this horse on my list of strong contenders. You should discount that last race at Pimlico on the soft turf where she finished out of the money. Should do well in this race under normal track conditions.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 FAST LANI (ML=9/5), #5 BEHIND THE COUCH (ML=7/2), #8 MISS MAJORETTE (ML=4/1),
FAST LANI - Trying to beat this thoroughbred this time at the reward of 9/5. BEHIND THE COUCH - Tough for anyone who saw this less than sharp equine in her last race to invest in her this time around. This entrant likes to land in the top three, but doesn't usually get the job done. Leave out of the top spot. MISS MAJORETTE - The rating last time out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this horse as a possibly overvalued equine.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #12 SNOW FORECAST to win at post-time odds of 4/1 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,10,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [10,12] with [2,10,12] with [2,4,10,11,12] with [2,4,10,11,12] Total Cost: $24
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:[2,10,12] with [2,4,10,11,12] with [2,4,10,11,12] with [2,4,10,11,12] with [2,4,10,11,12] Total Cost: $72
Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park
08/15/21, GP, Race 5, 3.06 ET
08/15/21,GP,5,5 1/2F [Dirt] 1:02:02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $33,500 (includes up to $4,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 118 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000.
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Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 30.38, ROI 0.90/$1
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI 100.0000 8 Madame Claude 12/1 Rios J M Sano Antonio SL 25 48.00 1.39/$1 093.8780 10 Big Surprise 6/1 Vasquez M A Braddy J. David FEC 227 29.96 0.83/$1 093.4883 12 Our Electra Guitar 3/1 Jaramillo E David Carlos A. JT 227 29.96 0.83/$1 092.5297 7 Folk Hero 4/1 Morelos J E Joseph. Jr. Saffie A. W 227 29.96 0.83/$1 092.5031 4 Miss Inez 5/1 Zayas E J Pompay Teresa M. 227 29.96 0.83/$1 091.8488 6 Katies a Lady 10/1 Panici L O'Connell Kathleen 227 29.96 0.83/$1 091.6608 9 Dominant Joy 6/1 Diaz. Jr. J Joseph. Jr. Saffie A. 227 29.96 0.83/$1 091.6545 13 Bellavalencia 20/1 Morelos J E Duncan Christopher 227 29.96 0.83/$1 091.3481 3 Look Up to Heaven 20/1 Reyes L Budhoo Steve 227 29.96 0.83/$1 090.9858 11 Vanishing Faith 20/1 Calles F Cioffi Antonio 227 29.96 0.83/$1 090.9522 1 Bella Romance 30/1 Berrios H I Bordis Robert W. 227 29.96 0.83/$1 090.7918 2 Cupid Austin 30/1 Gonzales J J Acker Scott D. 227 29.96 0.83/$1 089.5208 5 Shes a Gift 12/1 Arroyo A S Pinchin Jose 227 29.96 0.83/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -6.1220
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Dirt MdnMClm] *2nd Horse Not 99/98/97 Rating And Top Horse 100 Rating
*Scratches may change this condition
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