Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!
NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football
College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football
Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball
College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball
NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball
NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey
Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis
August 22, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Hoosier Park has a 14-race card ready to roll with the headliners being 3-year-old colts and gelding pacers competing in Indiana Sires stakes action. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 11, and that sequence will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 11
2-Rockin on Venus (5/2)-Comes back to home base and shouldn't blush at anyone in this field. Should be close to the lead or on top for the entire mile and with a smooth trip it could be 8th picture at HoP in 14 starts.
3-Virgo (3-1)-This is a speedy 3-year-old should be in position to knock off the chalk. But at times lacks the will to finish off miles and shouldn't offer much value.
6-This Kit Rocks (10-1)-Will take a swing for a price in case the top two aren't bringing their fastball. Set some quick fractions in last and faded. May do better facing his classmates and with a sharp steer may finally knock off one of the top players.
Race 12
7-Odd On Alpha Male (5/2)-Starts inside the main challengers and raced well from the 2nd tier in last. Now Wrenn is back between the pipes and could be sitting on a big effort at a short price.
8-Thunder Country (4-1)-Was used a couple of times from the 7-hole last week and just missed breaking his maiden. The 0-7 record shouldn't be ignored but has cashed a 2nd place check in 4 starts. The fractions could be livelier this time and De Long may duck and look to rally off cover.
Race 13
1-Rocky's Wedding (4-1)-Keeps hitting the board versus this kind but can't seem to cash the top check. Has been stuck with the 7-hole in the last 3 and then the 8-hole. Could be time to make the most of an inside post draw but did break back on 5-22, the last time starting from the rail.
5-Born To Thrive (7/2)-Fits with this crew, Plano steers his own and draws a very good post. Will look to beat #2, the morning line choice and this 8-year-old should have a good shot at an overdue win.
Race 14
1-Skyway Victor (7/2)-Tuned-up here on 8-14 and has been on the bench since racing on 7-25. Miller trainee has won 7 of 22 at HoP and should be there at the wire for Tetrick if dialed on high.
5-Rockinsomewhere (4-1)-Gaskin trainee has the gate speed to get a pocket ride behind #1 but Macomber could try a different plan and come off cover. Versatile 3-year-old has the speed to get the job done and should offer a solid price.
9-Rogers Image (3-1)-Has won 3 of 4 since going on Lasix and could make it 4 straight here. De Long will need to work a smooth trip as this will be 1st time starting on outside in over 2 months. Went off at 7/5 in last, should offer a better price with this post draw and best to not ignore the razor sharp form.
0.50 Late Pick 4
2,3,6/7,8/1,5/1,5,9
Total Bet=$18
Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - Sunday, August 22, 2021
August 22, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Satchel de Ritches; 2-Dark Hedges
Forecast: Dark Hedges, a voided claim for $20,000 last month and returned to trainer M. Glatt’s barn, surfaces for half that mount in this six furlong sprint for older horses. First or second in seven of 14 career starts and a prior winner over the Del Mar main track, the son of Giant’s Causeway does his best work while on or near the lead throughout, and with recent numbers that are good enough to beat this below par field he’s the one to beat under the assumption that he has at least one good left. Satchel de Ritches, claimed in his last pair and now in the P. Miller barn (a strong 25% with the first-off-the-claim angle), picks up F. Prat but needs good racing luck from his rail draw. Based purely on numbers, a repeat of his race before last will probably be good enough. We’ll give Dark Hedges a slight edge on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
*
*
RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Suki; 3-Viazar
Forecast: Viazar simply ran out of room when a fast-finishing second in a similar starter’s allowance turf event here last month and today switches to U. Rispoli and gets an extra half furlong to work with, so we’re expecting the daughter of Tapizar to be along in time. It was her first outing since November, she’s been given sufficient time in between races to recover, and looks every bit of the 8/5 that she’s listed on the morning line. Suki, a close fifth in the same race our top pick exits, is guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from her rail post position and is probably worth including in your ticket, at least as a backup or a saver.
*
*
RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 5-California Kook; 6-Ginja
Forecast: California Kook looked quite good when returning to winning form over this track and distance last month, easily handling the boys with a strong late kick in a state-bred first level allowance event. She faces open company today and based on numbers she looks quite capable of winning right back. Ginja, a solid runner-up at this level last time out while almost seven lengths clear of the rest, should fire a similar shot today, though based strictly one numbers she’s not as fast as our top pick and seems to have leveled off in recent races. We’ll include her a on ticket or two as a backup, but the main push goes to California Kook.
*
*
RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Gold Rush Candy; 4-Stan the Hot Man; 7-Forgiving Spirit
Forecast: Forgiving Spirit breezed well at the OBS April when clocked in :10 flat and makes his first career start for P. Miller with a steady series of recent drills at San Luis Rey Downs to have him fit and ready. With F. Prat taking the call, the son of Shaman’s Ghost is certain to attract plenty of play in race restricted to Cal-breds. Stan the Hot Man displayed ability when second in a fast heat at Golden Gate Fields in his debut last month while six lengths clear of the rest. The number was decent, and we suspect the J. Wong-trained colt will produce a forward move, so among those that have raced he appears the most advanced. Gold Rush Candy was bet off the board in his debut, but after breaking well he was simply outfooted during the early stages and then had a bit of rough go when attempting to rally into the lane. The performance certainly was below expectations but the son of Danzing Candy probably deserves another chance, so we’ll toss him in.
*
*
Race 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Racetrackers; 2-Full Draw; 4-Man On the Moon
Forecast: Racetrackers draws the rail, drops to his lowest level ever and can beat this field if he can transfer his grass form to the main track. His one prior outing on dirt wasn’t bad – he was fast-finishing third sprinting in his debut – so there’s hope that these conditions will suit him. Full Draw, a runner-up over this track and distance in a similar event last month, projects to draft into a comfortable second flight, stalking position and have every chance from the top of the lane to wire. He’s never really been known to punch it in late but with numbers that fit you have to use him. Man On the Moon, claimed in three of his last four starts and now in the R. Hess, Jr. barn, was no factor vs. tougher foes in his first start since shipping in from the Midwest but against this group he’s much more likely to be competitive. With patient handling, the son of Distorted Humor may be a late threat.
*
*
RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 6-Witch Moon; 9-Quinevere; 10-Badger Kitten
Forecast: Trainer P. D’Amato has two major players in this maiden claiming middle distance turf event for older fillies and mares. Witch Moon, competitive with straight maiden foes last spring at Santa Anita, she drops into a seller in her first start since late May and seems to have found a field she can beat. The four year old daughter of Malibu Moon shows a steady, healthy series of recent works to have her fit and picks up F. Prat, so at 3-1 on the morning line she’s the one to beat. Stable mate Badger Kitten is a dangerous Delaware Park invader seeking some of that valuable ship-and-win bonus money, and her form suggests this is a field she can be very competitive with. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy prefers to lag and then take hold late, so given that type of ride by J. J. Hernandez she should be able to make some noise close home. Quinevere, a closing runner-up in her local bow for P. Miller while being aided somewhat by a quick early pace, has a right to move forward and is worth some consideration with U. Rispoli staying aboard.
*
*
RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Scream and Shout; 3-Kind But She Lies
Forecast: Kind But She Lies should be able to win one of these bottom-rung maiden claiming sprints for fillies and mares eventually, perhaps today. In the frame in her last two starts, most recently with a career-top speed figure, the E. Kruljac-trained daughter of Exaggerator projects to be comfortably placed stalking the pace and then have her chance to grind out a win. Scream and Shout, on the shelf for exactly a year, drops to the bottom for her comeback, returns to the main track, and lands F. Prat, so we’re going to assume the T. Yakteen-trained filly is fit and ready. The works look fine for a cheap type so if she leaves cleanly from the rail she’s certain to be at least a strong pace factor. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in rolling exotic play.
*
*
RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Lieutenant Dan; 4-Collusion Illusion; 8-Gregorian Chant
Forecast: Collusion Illusion is fast enough on figures to win this race, but he’s never been on grass, though as a son of Twirling Candy there’s no reason he shouldn’t handle it. Away since finishing third in the Malibu S.-G1 in December, the M. Glatt-trained colt has the ideal stalking style for this abbreviated turf dash and if within range at the head of the lane should have every chance to nail the speed types. Lieutenant Dan earned a career top number when beating a lesser field over this course and distance last month in his first start in more than a year. He’ll get tested for class day, but if the son of Grazen runs back to his last race he'll be in the battle throughout. Gregorian Chant found himself on the pace in the Jaipur S.-G1 at Belmont Park last time out and that’s not the way he wants to run. A prototype late-running turf sprinter, the English-bred gelding won’t have an easy task over a course that promotes the inside speed types, but he’ll be rolling late and should at least get a piece of it.
*
*
RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Bold Endeavor; 6-Order and Law
Forecast: Four of the seven entrants in this allowance optional claiming main track miler exit the same race, including the horse that won it, Order and Law. Extra brave in victory while under pressure every step of the way (and appearing beaten at the quarter pole), the son of Violence re-rallied into the lane and drew clear impressively while earning a career top speed figure. He moves up to the $80,000 level for new trainer T. McCanna and in this race projects to settle outside the other two speed types, and employ stalking and pouncing tactics, a style that he’s comfortable with. Bold Endeavor was the 4/5 favorite in that race but really didn’t have any excuse and weakened to finish fourth. He’s always liked the Del Mar main track and has better races to go back to, so we’ll give the M. Glatt-trained gelding another shot. These are the two we’ll be including in rolling exotic play and with little extra push going to Order and Law.
*
*
RACE 10: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: B-
Single: 12-Finnley’s Kitten
Forecast: Finnley’s Kitten was given an educational run in her debut last month in a similar grass miler for state-bred fillies and mares and did well to finish fourth before galloping out strongly in a better effort that the line will show. With that bit of experience behind her, the daughter of Kitten’s Joy should step forward significantly even from an unfavorable outside draw. F. Prat stays aboard for the R. Baltas-trained filly, who adds blinkers and shows a couple of easy breezes since raced. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
*
Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Sunday, August 22, 2021
August 22, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Saffron Moon; 3-Time for Cupid
Forecast: Time for Cupid is technically still a maiden, but she doesn’t know it. The daughter of Cupid finished first in her debut at Lone Star Park by more than four widening lengths and earned a decent speed figure in the process, but had her number taken down for a ticky-tack call so she’ll try to graduate again today. The purse in that race was $40,000; today’s purse is $100,000 so maybe the poor decision by Texas stewards will prove to be the proverbial blessing in disguise. Saffron Moon has done some decent work in the morning for C. Brown while appearing a tad the best with stable mate Dover Dreams in a pair of recent workouts, so we’ll toss her in on a ticket or two for protection. She lands J. Rosario and really hasn’t been asked for her best while displaying some early speed, so the daughter of Malibu Moon may be better than her morning line of 5-1 would indicate.
*
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Fortineno; 9-Diamond Hands
Forecast: We’re going to handicap this race under the assumption that it will remain on grass. We’ll pass if it’s switched to the main track. Trainer C. Clement sends out an uncoupled entry of two first-time starters that have looked quite promising in team drills. Fortineno is an Irish-bred filly by Frankel, attracts J. Rosario, and has done most of her morning preparation breaking off in front of her workmates, having them join her in the stretch, and then holding them off and galloping out strongly. Hard to say what kind of strategy or running style she will display but she acts like a filly with more to give than her moderate times might indicate. Diamond Hands has been trained to lag and then accelerate late, so we’re expecting the daughter of Frosted to make here presence felt from off the pace under J. Castellano. Under the assumption that Rosario, who is the preferred jockey for the stable, has landed on the better of two, we’ll put Fortineno on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
*
*
RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: C
Use: 1-Eagle Pass; 2-Bronzed; 5-Strolling
Forecast: Four of the six starters in this $16,000 claiming sprint have joined new barns since their last race, so what you see on recent form may not be what you get today. Bronzed used to be better than this when trained by J. Servis but the stakes-winning gelding has been away for two years and returns cheap, so new trainer R. Rodriguez probably isn’t looking at him as a long term proposition. He could fire a big shot, but the works are slow, so who really knows? Eagle Pass, claimed for $20,000 by a low percentage outfit and unraced since mid-June, has a race two back that would bury this group, but his work tab is sketchy and his current condition questionable. Strolling comes off a moderate win for $25,000 in a race that didn’t earn much of a figure and today drops a level after being transferred to the W. Potts barn. With so many question marks, the best advice is to spread as deeply as you can or simply pass the race.
*
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Jades Gelly; 7-What a Trick; 8-Lilly Simone
Forecast: We’ll handicap this race for turf only. If it’s transferred to the main track, we’ll pass. Lilly Simone was a clever maiden-claiming winner over this course and distance two races back and missed by a head in a similar starter’s allowance turf sprint after producing her typical good late kick. A repeat of either one of those efforts today makes her the one to beat. Jades Gelly, fourth in the same race our top pick exits, was fractious in the gate, broke slowly, and then closed a gap but too late. If she behaves herself today and leaves with her field, the K. Broberg-trained filly will make her presence felt. What a Trick, listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite, is clearly the quickest in the field and will take them as far as she can. Worn down in the final furlong with weakening to finish third in a listed turf sprint stakes at Pimlico last month, she’s facing softer foes today and may be able to wire the field, though on pure number her edge over the competition is minimal. These are the three we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with Lilly Simone earning a very slight edge on top
*
*
RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Miss Peppina; 3-Cazilda Fortytales; 8-Quantitativbreezin
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the fifth race, a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Cazilda Fortytales battled bravely under pressure on the front end in a similar event last month before being worn down late and winding up second. She shortens a furlong today and projects to be on or near the lead throughout again. Miss Peppina, away since February and going from T. Pletcher to G. Sciacca, had finished in the frame in four straight before being stopped on, and with a brief, uneven recent work tab it is hard to know just where she’s at off the bench. However, the presence of L. Saez in the saddle is promising. Quantitativbreezin has burned money in both in her last two starts but lands the cozy outside post in her first-off-the-claim for a barn that has had some success with this angle, so with the switch to J. Ortiz and with room to improve she’s worth including on your ticket.
*
*
RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Shanghai Shamrock; 6-No Nannette No; 7-Landslid
Forecast: There’s not a whole lot of quality in this high-priced maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies so we’ll go three deep in our rolling exotics using a couple of class droppers and one first-time starter. Shanghai Shamrock has chased much tougher foes in three tries vs. maiden special weight company and although well-beaten in each race she earned speed figures that should be good enough to win in this league. Her last two outings were compromised by early trouble but with a good trip today she should be able to put her best stuff on display. Landslid, comfortably drawn outside, might be the quickest in the field, and if she can shake loose early the daughter of Flashback might get brave and keep on going. No Nannette No has looked fair to moderate in the morning leading up to her debut for G. Weaver. Against this group she should be reasonably competitive.
*
*
RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Rhythm Section; 3-Mud Pie; 5-Box N Score
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf. If it is switched to main track, we will pass the race. Mud Pie is a proven marathoner and given today’s 11-furlong trip the son of Morning Line will be hard to beat with a repeat of his impressive maiden score at Kentucky Downs last year. Off for six months and finishing a willing second in a middle distance affair in his comeback in June, the G. Arnold-trained colt should step forward today with the switch to L. Saez following a healthy series of recent workouts that should have him set for his best try. Box N Score shows rising speed figures with every start and with another forward move today he’ll be right there. This distance is well within his range and in his third start in his current form cycle the son of Lemon Drop Kid appears set for a major effort. Rhythm Section faltered in an off-the-turf event last month at this level, winding up a distant third. If this race remains on grass, the son of American Pharoah almost certainly will be the controlling speed and given that type of trip could take this field a long way.
*
*
RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Kasim; 3-Ahead of Plan; 8-Montauk Daddy
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf. If it is transferred to the main track, we will pass the race. Kasim is a first-off-the-claim for D. Gargan (35% with a strong ROI), so we’ll expect the lightly-raced sophomores to produce a significant forward move in his first start since May while dropping from straight 3-year-old open $50,000 company to this restricted (nw-3) $35,000 seller for older horses. L. Saez probably will take hold early and cut him loose late, and with good racing luck the son of Munnings might be able to tag the speed close home. Ahead of Plan exits a pair of productive races, most recently finishing a close runner-up vs. similar at Belmont Park in late June. He’s a prior winner over this course and distance, so the C. Brown-trained gelding, first or second five of 10 career starts, looks very much like a major player. Montauk Daddy is the quickest in the field, and in his second start off a layoff the R, Atras-trained cold could prove elusive if he’s not pressured early. However, he’s been known to burn money and that last sixteenth always is troublesome, so we’ll include him on a ticket or two as a backup but not much more than that.
*
*
RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Dunbar Road; 6-Gold Spirit
Forecast>: Three of the six entrants in this year’s renewal of the listed Summer Colony S. for older fillies and mares exit the Shuvee S.-G3 over this same course and distance last month. Dunbar Road, very wide into the lane before losing her punch late to wind up fifth, appeared a bit rusty and in need of the outing, so we’ll give her one more chance to return to top form. Victorious in the prestigious Alabama S.-G1 here in 2019, the veteran daughter of Quality Road has won six of 16 career starts but needs to show today that she still wants to do it. Gold Spirit, fourth in the Shuvee in her U.S. debut for C. Brown, is another that seems likely to produce a significant forward move, especially with the removal of blinkers and the switch to J. Rosario. A Grade-1 winner in Chile, she remains well regarded and shows two nice breezes since raced. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics with a slight edge on top to Dunbar Road.
*
*
RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: C+
Use: 4-Leading West; 8-Voter Protection
Forecast: If this race is taken off the turf, we’ll pass. Voter Protection is another one of those Klaravich/C. Brown maiden-to-maiden claiming class droppers as the stable continues to cull many of its expensive purchases that haven’t panned out. This lightly-raced gelding, away since January and returning as a first-time gelding, missed at 40 cents on the dollar when last seen in a maiden state-bred affair in Florida but shows a healthy series of workouts at Monmouth Park to have him fit enough off the bench. Leading West is a 12-race maiden and not one to trust, but he’s quite competitive on numbers and should be a late threat for the powerful trainer/jockey combo of M. Maker/T. Gaffalione. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and while preferring Vote Protection on top.
*
*
Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Gulfstream
August 22, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
Gulfstream Park’s Late Pick 4 on Sunday is a tough sequence and it’s difficult to commit to a single, which makes it necessary to toss around a few extra numbers. That costs more money, but it also gives you a better chance when there’s a shortage of the obvious.
The Late Pick 4 will be contested from races 7-10, and here’s a look at this week’s $60 suggested ticket:
7th Race (4:14 p.m. ET, maiden special weight)
PALINOMIUM has started just once, and it came at 7.5 furlongs (two turns) on the turf. He’s had a couple of works since that start, moves over to the main track and turns back to seven furlongs.
He was bet down to 2-1 in his debut and likely will get back some of start despite running fourth.
Others on the ticket: THE GREEN CRUSADER, T VILLE, THE SKIPPER TOO, ANYTHINGBUTSUBTLE.
8th Race (4:48 p.m. ET, starter optional claiming)
KICK IN THE GAS was claimed last time by Jennifer Young when he broke his maiden by 12 lengths. That was in a race that came off turf. His only other start was on turf, when he ran fourth.
Was a $150K yearling and hasn’t run to those expectations, but he’s probably the one to beat if he runs to back to his last one. Still, the outside post could be an equalizer for others, and several in this race are worthy of attention.
Others on the ticket: SEIZE THE HAY, EHTOS, SURPRISE FACTOR.
9th Race (5:22 p.m., claiming allowance)
DARK TIMBER drops in class and was third last out. Was claimed in two of his last three, and he makes a start for the Saffie Joseph, Jr., barn for the second time. Has been good in four of his last five and figures highly in here.
There’s plenty of speed and a couple of others are worth using on the ticket.
Others on the ticket: THE ICE BEAST, LOST A LEGEND.
10th Race (5:56 p.m., maiden claiming)
ESPERANTO has made just two starts, once at Saratoga and once at Gulfstream West, and each was against maiden special weight company. He comes off the bench for the first time since October and drops to the bottom level.
He was in the Bill Mott barn for his first one, and moved to Amador Sanchez's outfit later last year. He has some good works for his return.
Others on the ticket: MAURO’S TEAM.
Gulfstream Park 50-cent Late Pick 4 on Sunday:
7) #1 The Green Crusader, #3 T Ville, #6 Palimonium, #7 The Skipper Too, #8 Anythingbutsubtle.
8) #3 Seize the Hay, #5 Ethos, #10 Surprise Factor, #12 Kick in the Gas.
9) #1 Dark Timber, #3 The Ice Beast, #7 Lost a Legend.
10) #2 Mauro’s Team, #4 Esperanto.
Ticket: 1-3-6-7-8 with 3-5-10-12 with 1-3-7 with 2-4 ($60).
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Ellis Park - Race #5
Ellis Park - Race #6
Picks Notes #6 Levy He has some room to move forward while adding another furlong for this second start, and the pedigree suggests some more ground isn't going to pose a real problem. Mid-range price player in with a chance. #7 Beach Holiday He's bred to be a good one, but he came up short while proving no threat in the debut at 2/1. Factoring in a move forward in this second start gives him a right to be tough, but probably at an underlaid number for top connections. #1 Jolly Tommy He might be able to sit along the fence and save some ground before launching a bid, and like the top pair, he has a right to step up with something better this time around. Race Summary Levy and Beach Holiday were separated by a little more than a length when they met in their respective debuts, but Levy will be a much better price despite only having a minor margin to turn on that guy.
Ellis Park - Race #7
Picks Notes #12 Miss Americana She faded late when trying the turf last time out, but she gets back to the main track at what should be a playable price for a capable team. Bounce back effort today? #8 Street Missy The price will get shorter after the good effort at 30/1 when trying this trip for the first time, but she will have to prove she can back that race up, as it appears to be an outlier in her form for now. #11 Sovereign Appeal She has been better since adding blinkers, and there's every reason to think she'll be able to build on a solid comeback effort. Second start off the break might do the trick. Race Summary Miss Americana gets back to the main track after a dull turf run last time out, and anything near the 10/1 ML price would seem playable for the Geroux/Asmussen team.
Picks Notes #7 Eastside Cool Price player has some sharp pace from the outside and might be quick enough to find the front from a good, outside draw. Either way, he can prompt the issue from a good spot early. #4 Cave Hill He should appreciate getting out of stakes company for the first time in a few starts, and his only dirt start was a decent score in an off-turf race at Indiana Grand. #3 Convention He's another one who gets some class relief for this one after trying stakes groups, but I fear he's overbet in this spot with a ceiling that isn't much higher than the rest in here. Race Summary Eastside Cool owns some pace, and though he can be vulnerable in the lane, he might get the right kind of race shape to land this at a square price.
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Del Mar - Race #3
Del Mar - Race #8
Picks Notes #6 Ginja Was second throughout her last one and can improve in her second over the strip; has good speed and likely will stalk and strike late. #7 Samurai Charm Was an easy winner last time and has taken three straight victories; loves to be on the front end and is strong at this level. #5 California Kook Drew off from Cal-bred allowance optional claiming runners and can display a solid closing move. Race Summary Ginja can be in an ideal stalking position and can make her move when called upon; can move up from her latest.
Del Mar - Race #9
Picks Notes #2 Texas Wedge Hasn't won since January 2020 but he's been in some of the toughest turf sprints American racing has to offer; tired in the closing furlong of a 6.5-furlong race and should be up to running a big one in this five-furlong dash. #3 Lieutenant Dan Has won Cal-bred stakes races and was particularly impressive in his last one, which came against open runners. Will apply pressure from the start. #4 Collusion Illusion Is far and away the classiest in this field but has never been on turf; has been in the finest dirt sprints on the west coast, as well as the BC Sprint and makes his first since his third-place finish in the Malibu last December. Race Summary Texas Wedge has been in good turf sprints has enough speed to put himself into the mix at the start and can be effective at the distance.
Picks Notes #4 Manhattan Up Was second at the distance last out and gets a good pace setup here. #3 Azul Coast Was third in his first off a 10-month layoff; has a good chance to improve. #6 Order and Law Has won three straight and four of his last five and is a big player under these conditions. Race Summary Manhattan Up finishes well and can benefit from chasing a fast pace.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote