Saturday 9/18/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Century Mile - Race #6 - Post: 8:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,500 Class Rating: 51

Rating:

#5 SMILE MARY (ML=6/5)


SMILE MARY - Looking at today's class rating, this thoroughbred is meeting an easier group than last time out at Century Mile. This filly is in nice physical condition. Ended up third on September 4th. This jock and conditioner have a lucrative ROI when they team up. The 46 last race speed rating looks sound on paper.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 NOT YOUR BIZINESS (ML=4/1), #2 I'MAMUDDERTOO (ML=9/2), #6 STORMY ROSE (ML=8/1),

NOT YOUR BIZINESS - Not probable for this thoroughbred to make an impact with no recent good showings in a sprint event. This animal hasn't been close in either of her last couple of outings. The rating last out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this horse as a vulnerable contender. I'MAMUDDERTOO - This filly notched a speed rating in her last race which likely isn't good enough in today's race. STORMY ROSE - Didn't close whatsoever on Sep 4th. Hard to bet on this time out at the expected odds. Not probable that the speed figure she earned on Sep 4th will hold up in this affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 SMILE MARY is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with [6,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Laurel - Race #10 - Post: 5:25pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $48,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#4 SHE'S MO BETTER (ML=5/1)
#8 SWEET GRACIE (ML=15/1)


SHE'S MO BETTER - Jockey hops up aboard after getting to know the beautiful animal by riding last time around the track. That's always a good tip. Looking at the past performances on all of these thoroughbreds, this is the only one to stalk. Worth a long hard look at this animal. I like this filly. Has the highest earnings per start in here today. A horse coming back this rapidly after a good outing is a good signal. SWEET GRACIE - It looks like Gomez had to learn about this filly on August 18th when riding her for the first time. Back aloft again today. This filly is in good form. Ended up first on Aug 18th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MAESTRIA (ML=9/5), #5 LUNA BELLE (ML=2/1), #7 HAPPY TAPPY TIM (ML=8/1),

MAESTRIA - Shins may have soreness since they added front wraps in the last race. This filly didn't show me enough down the stretch drive to warrant backing against stronger competition. LUNA BELLE - Would have to get quite a bit more than the morning line of 2/1 to wager on this horse. HAPPY TAPPY TIM - Somewhat easily forgotten speed figure last race out at Monmouth Park at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this entrant will improve too much in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 SHE'S MO BETTER is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	[4,8] with [4,8] with [2,3,5,6,7] Total Cost: $10
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[4,8] with [4,8] with [3,5,7] with [2,3,5,6,7] Total Cost: $24
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	[4,8] with [4,8] with [2,3,5,7] with [2,3,5,7] with [2,3,5,7] Total Cost: $48

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park

09/18/21, BEL, Race 8, 4.40 ET
09/18/21,BEL,8,6F [Dirt] 1:07:03 ALLOWANCE. Purse $80,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.;Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Other Than Claiming Or Starter Allowed 2 lbs.
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

Rating	P#	Horse Name	M/L	Jockey	Trainer	Best	Occ	Win%	ROI
100.0000	2	Esotica	8/1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Maker Michael J.	JWL	94	45.74	1.34/$1
098.0720	10	Snicket	4/1	Saez L	Clement Christophe	TC	84	41.67	1.24/$1
097.6081	3	Beautiful Karen	7/2	Cancel E	Rice Linda	S	80	37.50	1.27/$1
097.0627	1	Pretty Clever	5/1	Carmouche K	Casse Mark E.		94	45.74	1.34/$1
095.0879	9	She's Dancing	3/1	Conner T	Stites Flint W.	E	94	45.74	1.34/$1
093.1833	6	Ok Honey	10/1	Davis D	DiPrima Gregory		84	41.67	1.24/$1
092.6630	5	Out First	8/1	Lezcano J	Ryerson James T.		94	45.74	1.34/$1
092.2829	7	Vienna Code	20/1	Samuel J L	Williams Andrew O.		80	42.50	1.37/$1
092.2445	4	Lot of Honey	20/1	Franco M	Ferraro James W.		94	45.74	1.34/$1
089.1332	8	Handle the Truth	30/1	Hernandez B	Metivier Richard		94	45.74	1.34/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 43.22, ROI 1.29/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.9280
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] Horse Age 3

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1.	Doc's Picks	CFB	Army under 48	3-2 (+125)	5-1 (+390)
2.	Elite Sports Picks	CFB	USC -7	3-1 (+195)	3-0 (+300)
3.	Joe Wiz			1-1 (-5)	3-3 (-25)
4.	The Spot Player	MLB	St. Louis -115	3-2 (+45)	2-2 (-55)
5.	National Sports Service	CFB	Georgia under 47.5	2-1 (+90)	3-4 (-130)
6.	Primetime Sports Picks	CFB	BYU under 50.5	2-2 (-125)	2-4 (-290)
7.	The Sports Consensus	MLB	Houston over 8.5	0-3 (-380)	2-5 (-380)
8.	Top Rank Sports Picks	CFB	Washington under 59	3-1 (+190)	2-5 (-495)
9.	Profit On Sports	CFB	Air Force under 55	2-2 (-40)	1-6 (-615)
10.	Insider Sports Report	CFB	Kent St. +23	1-2 (-120)	1-6 (-620)

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Free Winners for Saturday, September 18th 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE MLB PICKS
Diamondbacks @ Astros
TIME: 7:10 PM EST
PICK: Bet Astros -1.5 @ Bovada

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Saturday, September 18th, 2021 from VEGAS BLACK CARD CLUB!FREE MLB PICKS
Braves @ Giants
TIME: 9:05 PM EST
PICKS: BET UNDER 8 @ BOVADA

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Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks	Place A Bet
1.	NSA(The Legend)	CFB – Alabama -14.5	Line @ Bovada
2.	Gameday Network	CFB – Toledo -14.5	Line @ Bovada
3.	Sports Action 365	CFB – Memphis +3.5	Line @ GT Bets
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	CFB – Old Dominion +27.5	Line @ GT Bets
5.	VegasSI.com	CFB – Georgia St under 63	Line @ Bovada
6.	PointSpreadReport.com(SAM CASEY)	CFB – Auburn +5	Line @ MyBookie
7.	Winning Big Sports	CFB – UAB under 57.5	Line @ MyBookie
8.	NSA(Gerry “Big Cat” Andino)	CFB – Tulane +14.5	Line @ Bovada
9.	Lou Panelli	CFB – BYU +3.5	Line @ Bovada
10.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	CFB – UCLA -11	Line @ GT Bets
11.	William E. Stockton	CFB – BYU +3.5	Line @ MyBookie
12.	Vincent Pioli	CFB – Boise St -3.5	Line @ Bovada
13.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	CFB – Rice +26	Line @ Bovada
14.	SCORE	CFB – LSU -19.5	Line @ GT Bets
15.	Tony Campone	CFB – North Carolina -7.5	Line @ Bovada
16.	Chicago Sports Group	CFB – Utah St under 54.5	Line @ Bovada
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	CFB – Utah -8	Line @ Bovada
18.	VIP Action	CFB – Old Dominion over 52.5	Line @ GT Bets
19.	South Beach Sports	CFB – Memphis +3.5	Line @ Bovada
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	CFB – Toledo -14.5	Line @ Bovada
21.	NY Players Club	CFB – Tulsa +25	Line @ GT Bets
22.	Fred Callahan	CFB – Alabama -14.5	Line @ Bovada
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	CFB – Wyoming -7	Line @ MyBookie
24.	Michigan Sports	CFB – Colorado -2.5	Line @ GT Bets
25.	National Consensus Report	CFB – Buffalo under 58	Line @ Bovada

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, SATURDAY September 18, 2021
9/18 04:00 PM PT / 7:00 PM ET

CF (171) TROY VS (172) SO MISSISSIPPI

Take: (172) SO MISSISSIPPI

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Cappers Access

Sat (NCAAF) Oklahoma
Sat (NCAAF) Purdue
Sat (NCAAF) Alabama
Sat (NCAAF) BYU
Sat (NCAAF) UCLA

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NCAAF

Week 3

Friday’s games
Central Florida (2-0) @ Louisville (1-1)
— UCF beat Boise State 36-31, beat a I-AA team 63-14.
— Knights ran ball for 255 yards, threw for 318.
— Knights have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— MSU has 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Knights have a soph QB with 24 career starts.
— Last two years, UCF was 7-13 ATS as a road favorite.
— Malzahn is 14-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.

— Louisville lost 43-24 to Ole Miss, beat a I-AA team 30-3.
— Ole Miss threw for 381 yards, outgained Cardinals 569-355
— Louisville has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Cardinals have 95 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cardinals’ junior QB has started 16 games.
— Last four years, Louisville is 2-6-1 ATS as a home underdog.

— These teams haven’t met since 2013.

Maryland (2-0) @ Illinois (1-2)
— Maryland beat West Virginia 30-24, a I-AA team 62-0.
— Terps outgained WVU 496-325, throwing for 347 yards.
— Maryland has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Maryland has 36 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Terrapins have sophomore QB who started 6 games.
— Last seven years, Maryland is 3-5 ATS as road favorite.
— Locksley is 1-2 ATS as a road favorite.

— Illinois gave up 79 points last 2 weeks, losing to UTSA/Virginia.
— Virginia threw for 423 yards, outgained Illini 556-337.
— Illinois has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Illinois has 88 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Illini have sophomore QB who has started 17 games.
— Illinois is 9-14 ATS last 23 games as a home underdog.

— Maryland (-17.5) hammered Illini 63-33 three years ago, in only meeting.
— Terrapins ran ball for 431 yards in that game.

Saturday’s games
Michigan State (2-0) @ Miami (1-1)
— Michigan State won first two games, running for 326 yards @ Northwestern.
— Tucker is 3-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Spartans have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— MSU has 120 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Michigan State has a QB who started 26 games for Temple.
— MSU is 7-13 ATS in last 20 non-conference games.

— Miami got hammered by Alabama, then nipped App State 25-23 LW.
— Miami is 7-10 ATS in last 17 non-conference games.
— Miami has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Miami has 190 returning starts on offensive line.
— Hurricanes’ senior QB has started 32 games.
— Under Diaz, Miami is 5-7 ATS as a home favorite.

— These teams haven’t met in last 20 years.

Virginia Tech (2-0) @ West Virginia (1-1)
— Tech allowed 12 ppg in winning its first two games.
— Fuente is 22-15-2 ATS in non-conference games.
— Tech has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Tech has 106 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hokies’ junior QB has started six games.
— Under Fuente, Hokies are 5-5 ATS as road underdogs.

— West Virginia lost 30-24 at Maryland, then hammered a I-AA team.
— WVU is 6-11 ATS in last 16 non-conference games.
— Mountaineers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— WVU has 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Mountaineers have junior QB with 32 career starts.
— Last four years, West Virginia is 10-5 ATS as home favorites.

— Virginia Tech won last three series games.
— Hokies won last three series games.

Cincinnati (2-0) @ Indiana (1-1)
— Bearcats whacked couple of stiffs to start season.
— Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in last nine non-league games.
— Bearcats have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Cincinnati has 48 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cincinnati has a junior QB with 37 career starts.
— Under Fickell, Cincinnati is 3-5 ATS as a road favorite.

— Hoosiers lost to Iowa, then pounded a I-AA team.
— Indiana was outgained 303-233 in loss to the Hawkeyes.
— Hoosiers have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Indiana has 67 returning starts on offensive line.
— Indiana has a soph QB with 12 career starts.
— Under Allen, Indiana is 4-7 ATS as a home underdog.

— These teams haven’t met since 2000.

USC (1-1) @ Washington State (1-1)
— USC lost to Stanford Saturday, fired its coach Monday.
— USC gained 416-408 TY in first two games this year.
— Trojans have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— USC has 75 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Trojans have a soph QB with 19 career starts.
— USC is 12-7 ATS last 19 games as a road favorite.
— Who fires their coach on September 13?

— Wazzu lost 26-23 to Utah State, beat I-AA team 44-24.
— Rolovich is 5-7-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Coogs have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Wazzu has 68 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Coogs have a soph QB with six career starts.
— Last six years, Wazzu is 4-2 ATS as home underdog.

— USC won 11 of last 13 series games.
— Trojans won five of last six visits to Pullman.
— Favorites are 8-5 ATS last 13 series games.

Alabama (2-0) @ Florida (2-0)
— Alabama waxed Miami 44-13, then beat up on a I-AA team.
— Alabama threw for 354 yards in win over Miami.
— Crimson Tide has 3 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Alabama has 89 returning starts on offensive line.
— Bama’s new QB has started two games.
— At Alabama, Saban is 33-23 ATS as a road favorite.

— Florida won first two games by 21-22 points (0-2 ATS)
— Gators ran ball for 763 yards in those two games.
— Florida has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
— Gators have 54 returning starts on offensive line.
— Florida’s new QB has two career starts.
— Under Mullen, Florida is 3-1 ATS as an underdog.

— Alabama (-17) held Florida off 52-46 LY, their first meeting since 2016.
— Gators threw ball for 408 yards in tough loss.
— Alabama is 5-2 ATS in last seven series games.

Florida State (0-2) @ Wake Forest (2-0)
— Florida State lost 41-38 to Notre Dame, 20-17 to a I-AA team.
— FSU ran ball for 466 yards in two games, but they lost to a I-AA team.
— Seminoles have 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— FSU has 100 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Seminoles’ senior QB started 33 games at UCF, was hurt last two years.
— FSU is 5-8 ATS last 13 games as a road underdog.

— Wake beat Old Dominion 42-10, a I-AA team 41-16.
— Deacons beat Florida State 22-20 in last meeting, in 2019.
— Wake has 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Deacons have 102 returning starts on offensive line.
— Wake has a sophomore QB with 21 career starts.
— Deacons are 9-5-1 ATS last 15 games as home favorites.

— Florida State won seven of last eight series games.
— Seminoles are 1-3-1 ATS in last five visits to Wake.
— Last 24 years, FSU is 2-0 ATS vs Wake as an underdog.

Utah (1-1) @ San Diego State (2-0)
— Utah lost 26-17 at rival BYU LW, giving up 219 YR.
— Last 3+ years, Utes are 2-6-1 ATS out of conference.
— Utah has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Utes have 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Utah’s new quarterback started 39 games at Baylor.
— Last 5+ years, Utah is 11-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.

— San Diego State beat NM State 28-10, Arizona 38-14.
— Aztecs ran ball for 519 yards in those games.
— San Diego State has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Aztecs have 65 returning starts on offensive line.
— San Diego State has a junior QB with 4 starts.
— Aztecs are 6-1-1 ATS in last eight games as home dogs.

— These teams haven’t met since 2010.

Auburn (2-0) @ Penn State (2-0)
— Auburn started season by scoring 60-62 points vs stiffs.
— Harsin is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Auburn has 89 returning starts on offensive line.
— Tigers have a soph QB with 26 career starts.
— Last 7 years, Auburn is 4-10 ATS as a road underdog.

— Penn State won 16-10 at Wisconsin, hammered Ball State.
— PSU was outgained 359-297 by the Badgers.
— Penn State has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
— Penn State has 47 returning starts on offensive line.
— Penn State has a junior QB, with 22 starts.
— Nittany Lions are 4-6-1 ATS last 11 games as home favorites.

— These teams haven’t met since 2002.

Virginia (2-0) @ North Carolina (1-1)
— Virginia hammered Illinois 42-14 LW, throwing for 423 yards.
— Cavaliers are 9-3 ATS last dozen non-league games.
— Virginia has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Cavaliers have 122 returning starts on offensive line.
— Virginia has a soph QB with 11 starts.
— Last six years, Cavaliers are 15-11 ATS as a road underdog.

— UNC lost 17-10 at Va Tech, hammered Georgia State 59-17 LW.
— Tar Heels held both opponents this season under 300 yards.
— Tar Heels have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Tech has 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UNC has a soph QB with 27 career starts.
— Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS last six games as home favorites.

— Virginia won last four series games, scoring 34.3 ppg.
— Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS last seven visits to Kenan Stadium.
— Last two series games ended 38-31/44-41.

Tulane (1-1) @ Ole Miss (2-0)
— Tulane lost 40-35 at Oklahoma, whipped a I-AA team 69-20.
— Green Wave was outgained only 430-396 by the Sooners.
— Green Wave has 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
— Tulane has 114 returning starts on offensive line.
— Green Wave are playing a freshman QB with 11 starts.
— Under Fritz, Tulane is 7-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.

— Ole Miss waxed Louisville 43-24, beat a I-AA team 54-17.
— Rebels are 7-11 ATS out of conference.
— Rebels have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
— Ole Miss has 64 returning starts on offensive line.
— Rebels’ soph QB has started 16 games.
— Last three years, Ole Miss is 6-4 ATS as home favorite.

— These teams haven’t met since 2012.

Oklahoma State (2-0) @ Boise State (1-1)
— Oklahoma State edged Tulsa 28-23 LW; they were outshined, 347-313.
— OSU is 16-3 ATS in last 19 non-league games.
— Cowboys have 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— OSU has 103 returning starts on offensive line.
— Cowboys’ soph QB has started 21 games.
— OSU is 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.

— Boise State lost opener 36-31 at UCF, pounded UTEP 54-13.
— Broncos were outgained 573-283 by Central Florida.
— Boise State has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Broncos have 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Boise has soph QB who has started 15 games.
— Last 2+ years, Boise is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite.

— Oklahoma State (-1) beat Boise 44-21 in ’18; Broncos threw for 380 yards.

Arizona State (2-0) @ BYU (2-0)
— Arizona State beat UNLV 37-10 LW, beat a I-AA team 41-14.
— ASU ran for 287 yards against the Rebels.
— Sun Devils have 9 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
— ASU has 47 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Sun Devils have a soph QB with 18 career starts.
— Under Edwards, ASU is 5-10 ATS as a favorite, 2-4 on road.

— BYU beat Arizona 24-16, then upset rival Utah 26-17 LW.
— Last week was first time Cougars beat Utah since 2009.
— Cougars have 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
— BYU has 86 returning starts on the offensive line.
— BYU’s QB has started two games, won ‘em both.
— Under Sitake, BYU is 3-5-1 ATS as home underdogs.

— Teams haven’t met since 1998.

Fresno State (2-1) @ UCLA (2-0)
— Fresno hammered couple of stiffs, lost 31-24 at Oregon.
— Bulldogs outgained Oregon 373-358, were -2 in turnovers.
— Fresno has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Bulldogs have 51 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Fresno’s QB has nine career starts.
— Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS last ten games as road underdogs.

— UCLA had LW off after beating LSU 38-27.
— Bruins ran ball for 244-210 yards in first two games.
— UCLA has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
— Bruins have 73 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UCLA’s junior QB is making his 25th career start.
— Under Kelly, Bruins are 4-6 ATS as home favorite, 2-0 this year.

— Fresno (-2.5) won 38-14 at UCLA three years ago.
— Bulldogs won last three series games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football Week 3 Money Moves
Micah Roberts

We’ve got a few big games in college football’s week 3 action that will surely get the bettors clinging to a side whether it’s Alabama at Florida, Auburn at Penn State, or early bettors taking Tulsa on a 6.5 point ride betting against Ohio State.

“We’re expecting great handle again this week,” said Las Vegas SuperBook manager Randy Blum. “These bettors were a little apprehensive in the first week, but they came strong last week, and we’re seeing similar trends this week.”

Surprisingly, only because I remember decades of games between Nebraska and Oklahoma always being the game of the year, their 87th meeting Saturday hasn’t drawn any interest as the Sooners have been -22 all week at most books.

Station Casinos sportsbook VP Jason Mccormick said their sharpest plays this week have been on Colorado, North Texas (+14 vs. UAB), and Kansas State (+3 vs. Nevada) which all happened after Circa Sports let bettors punch away at early numbers for low limits when opening Sunday at 11 am PT.

Circa opened Minnesota -3 and were pick ‘em by the end of the day. Colorado has been bet up almost everywhere to the 3-point favorite. The Gophers lost star senior RB Mohamed Ibrahim two weeks ago due to a leg injury against Ohio State, but the uncertainty here appears to be what to make of the Buffaloes performance last week in a 10-7 loss against Texas A&M who played with a backup QB for most of the game.

The Kansas State sharp wagers are just a matter of the books and the bettors disagreeing on how much of a difference there is between starting QB Skylar Thompson being out Saturday against Nevada with a leg injury and backup sophomore Will Howard who had lots of snaps last season. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says the difference is worth 4.5-point down from Thompson.

The Las Vegas SuperBook has only seen a few sharps make wagers through Thursday afternoon.

“We don’t have a lot of sharp bets in yet, but we did see significant play on Coastal Carolina (at Buffalo) forcing us to move from -11 to -14,” said Blum. “We also saw action on Stanford (at Vanderbilt) that moved us from -10.5 to -12. Eastern Michigan (at U-Mass) moves from -18 to -22, but that was more of a market move for us.”

Then there’s the cautionary move with the market’s number even though no action has forced it. The air move when questions persist about a key player’s health. Keep the book safe, while also giving out a few extra points on the other side for those that want it.

“We moved Utah from -7 to -9, but it was just a precautionary move based on public perception seeing that San Diego State’s quarterback was questionable or didn’t practice,” Blum said. “We didn’t take any action on it either way.”

Aztecs QB Jordan Brookshire didn’t practice Monday and Tuesday and if he doesn’t start Saturday at home (Carson, CA), sixth-year senior backup QB Lucas Johnson will get the start. Johnson appeared to be the front runner for the starting job coming out of spring. There’s really not a dropoff between the two. Most books are still sitting with Utah -9. If it’s announced Brookshire is indeed out, expect another short rise in the number.

But it’s the big games driving the traffic to the books this week. Penn State has won and covered six straight since last season and Auburn has averaged 61 ppg in their first two games.

“Our largest handled game of the week so far is Auburn at Penn State and it’s had great two-way action so far,” Blum said. “We opened Penn State -7 but moved fast downward. Most of all the action on both sides is just the general public.”

Just an FYI on the Penn State game: It starts at 7:30 pm ET and every attending Beaver Stadium has been notified to wear white for the white-out under the lights. Sounds intimidating. Ask yourself why this total has dropped from 53.5 down to 50 when one of the teams has averaged 61 points in two games.

We saw Florida give Alabama a scare in the SEC Championship game last season. The Tide still won, 52-46, but the +16 on a neutral field had Florida bettors cheering with no sweat. Florida’s QB from last season is gone, but so is Alabama’s.

“Alabama at Florida doesn’t have any sharp play yet but we’re seeing good two way action,” Blum said. “I think they (sharps) have a side they like but want to wait until their desired number finally shows before they bet.”

It’s interesting to note that two of the three new QBs at elite programs have already lost with CJ Stroud at Ohio State and DJ Uiagalelei at Clemson. Alabama’s Bryce Young is going to get his first SEC road test at Gainesville. It’s a big step but most bettors are taking a side based on how he does in that spicey environment.

Atlantis Reno sportsbook director Marc Nelson said his top public plays for Saturday are Cincinnati (-3.5 at Indiana), Iowa (-22 vs Kent State), and Alabama. McCormick at Stations has two of those three with Marshall (-10 vs. ECU) instead of Iowa.

Lots of total movement this week but Blum recalled one of his sharp bettors seeking out one game.

“We had sharp money bet a total hard,” Blum said. “They bet the over in Utah State at Air Force pushing us from 50.5 to 54.”

Here’s a look at some of Circa Sports biggest Week 3 moves:

Liberty from -23 to -29 to -27.5 vs. Old Dominion
Arkansas -18 to -23.5 vs. Georgia Southern
Colorado +3 to -3 vs. Minnesota
U-Mass +21 to +17 vs. Eastern Michigan
UTSA -9 to -13 vs. Middle Tennessee State
Tulsa +31 to +24.5 at Ohio State
Baylor -14 to -17.5 at Kansas
San Jose State -3 to -6.5 at Hawaii
Texas A&M -25 to -30 vs. New Mexico
Michigan -24 to -26.5 vs. Northern Illinois

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CLEVELAND is 11-3 SU (11.1 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season in th...

BALTIMORE is 16-39 SU (-24.7 Units) vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

CINCINNATI is 4-23 SU (-19.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the current season.

MINNESOTA is 31-66 SU (-42.3 Units) vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

WASHINGTON is 5-17 SU (-17.1 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the current season.

TAMPA BAY is 49-24 SU (25.4 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) in the current season.

PITTSBURGH is 6-19 SU (-19.8 Units) in road games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities in the curr...

CHI WHITE SOX is 15-5 SU (12.2 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=38%) in the current season.

KANSAS CITY is 18-33 SU (-18.8 Units) with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL) in the current season.

ARIZONA is 7-24 SU (-20.8 Units) in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start in the current...

NY METS are 6-25 SU (-22.8 Units) vs. an NL team with a batting average of .245 or worse in the second half of the season in the c...

MILWAUKEE is 45-22 SU (27.9 Units) vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better in the current season.

SAN DIEGO is 13-29 SU (-20.2 Units) vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season in the...

SAN FRANCISCO is 46-21 SU (29.7 Units) vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities in the current season.

OAKLAND is 42-21 SU (26.3 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse in the current season.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Saturday, September 18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Saturday, September 18

Trend Report

Cleveland @ NY Yankees
Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Cleveland is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
NY Yankees
NY Yankees is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
NY Yankees is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Cleveland

Baltimore @ Boston
Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Boston
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Boston
Boston is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Baltimore
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

LA Dodgers @ Cincinnati
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 11 games

Minnesota @ Toronto
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto
Toronto is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

Colorado @ Washington
Colorado
Colorado is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Colorado is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Washington's last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing at home against Colorado

Detroit @ Tampa Bay
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Detroit's last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Detroit
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Pittsburgh @ Miami
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games on the road
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games at home
Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home

Chi White Sox @ Texas
Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
Chi White Sox is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas
Texas
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Texas's last 18 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox

Arizona @ Houston
Arizona
Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona

Seattle @ Kansas City
Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Seattle's last 13 games
Kansas City
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas City's last 10 games when playing at home against Seattle

Philadelphia @ NY Mets
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing NY Mets
NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Mets's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Chi Cubs @ Milwaukee
Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games
Chi Cubs is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs

San Diego @ St. Louis
San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games on the road
St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Atlanta @ San Francisco
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 11 games on the road
Atlanta is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games
San Francisco is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

Oakland @ LA Angels
Oakland
Oakland is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Angels
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 7 games when playing Oakland
LA Angels is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends for Saturday September 18
Vince Akins

SU Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (7:15 p.m. ET)

-- The Brewers are 14-0 this season as a home favorite of at least -200 when facing a starter with an ERA under 7.20.

SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Colorado at Washington (4:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Rockies are 0-9 on the road when the total is at least 9 coming off a game where they scored at least 9 runs.

OU Trend of the Day
Matchup: L.A. Dodgers at Cincinnati (2:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Reds are 7-0-1 OU since August 2017 coming off a multi-run win as a home dog where they scored no more than five runs.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (7:15 p.m. ET)

-- Corbin Burnes is 8-0 since May 31 when starting at home.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)