King Creole
Playoff GOY
49ers-Eagles over 46
*Optimum OU line: 46.5 or less points
We are ‘database compelled’ to come out firing on the OVER in this year’s NFC Championship game on Sunday. At 3:00pm ET, it’ll be the EAGLES hosting the NINERS, with the OU line in the range of 46.0 to 46.5 points. Obviously, all sharp bettors know that that we are dealing with the TOP TWO defenses in the NFL for the 2022 season. And we’re not thrilled to fade (or go against) great defensive teams like San Francisco or Philadelphia. But one thing that we WILL say about the year-to-date statistics: For both of these teams, those stats are extremely and HEAVILY skewed based on the quality of each team’s opponent this season. NEITHER of these two teams faced very many good offenses this season. For an example, Philadelphia had only TWO (out of 18!) games this year in which they faced a Top 10 offense (Minnesota and Detroit way back in Weeks 1 and 2). On the flip side, San Francisco faced only THREE Top 10 offenses this season as well (vs La Chargers, Miami, and Kansas City). So it’s no wonder that these two teams come in with the #1 and #2 defenses. Let’s also not forget that these OFFENSES are ranked #3 and #5 on the year as well. I mentioned in our opening sentence that we are ‘database obligated’ to increase our rating to BEST BET status in this game. We have anywhere from 11-12 different database situations that are all pointing to a higher-scoring outcome than the oddsmakers anticipate. So let’s run through ‘em all, starting with the Philly ‘applicable’ situations…
17-1 O/U since 2003 / 12-0 O/U since 2006 (59.0 combined ppg): All NFL Playoff teams off a Playoff WIN in which they allowed 7 or less points (EAGLES beat the Giants 38-7 last week)…
14-2 O/U since 2008 / 10-1 O/U since 2011: All NFL Playoff teams off a SUATS same-DIVISION Playoff win (EAGLES), when the OU line is less than (<) 55 points…
8-1 O/U since 2004: All NFL Playoff teams off a BIG Playoff win of 28 or more points (EAGLES), when the OU line is > 44.0 points… 8-0 O/U since 2003: All NFL Playoff home favorites off a SATURDAY SUATS Playoff win that also went ‘Under the Total’ (EAGLES)…
9-1 O/U since 2007: All NFL Playoff ‘short’ home favorites of -6 < pts after allowing a combined 48 or less points in each of their last three games (EAGLES), when the OU line is in the range of 43 to 53 points…
Next up, lets run some queries that apply to the visiting Niners this week…
19-3 O/U since 1984: All NFL Playoff underdogs off a Playoff HOME win in which they scored LESS than (<) 20 points (NINERS beat Dallas 19-12 last week)…
9-1 O/U since 1985: All NFL Playoff underdogs of < 10 points who ALLOW only 3.5 or less yards per rush on defense (NINERS), when the OU line is 46.0 or higher…
15-2 O/U since 213: All NFL Playoff underdogs who allowed a combined 48 or less points in each of their last three games (NINERS), when the OU line is in the range of > 41 and < 49 points…
8-1-1 O/U since 2006: All NFL Playoff teams off a Playoff UNDER… and 3+ OVERS in the three games before that (NINERS), when the OU line is < 53 points…
As we talked about in this week’s Marc Lawrence ‘Against the Spread’ podcast: The NFC CHAMPIONSHIP game has gone 12-4-1 O/U in the last 17 years… and 7-2-1 O/U in the last ten (52.9 combined PPG). In NON-DIVISION play, the results improve to 7-1 O/U in the last eight… with a higher average of 54.9 combined PPG.
Sealing the deal, and making this one Best Bet ‘worthy’ is a perfect 9-0 O/U situation… In the last ten years…. NFC CONFERENCE Playoff ‘short’ home favorites of -3 or LESS points (EAGLES vs NINERS) have gone a PERFCT 9-0 O/U when the OU line is LESS than (<) 48 points. This is one of those games that’s right in that ‘short home fav / mid-to-low OU line’ wheelhouse.
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Originally Posted by Bugsy
