Results 1 to 12 of 12

Thread: Thursday 4/13/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

  1. #1
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    346,694
    Rep Power
    381

    Thursday 4/13/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc


  2. #2
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    346,694
    Rep Power
    381
    Keeneland Tip Sheet - April 13

    Apr. 12, 2023


    Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.
    RACE #1 $50,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
    7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
    PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
    WIN 7-2 3 Talk Radio L Machado
    PLACE 5-1 10 Invaluable L Saez
    SHOW 9-5 7 Alarm Clock G Corrales
    WILD CARD 10-1 8 La Tourista W A Rodriguez
    ALTERNATE 1 12-1 9 Liberty Belle Y L Correa
    ALTERNATE 2 15-1 1 Princesstapiture L Y Marcano
    * EXACTA: 3-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
    * TRIFECTA: 3/7/10 BOX, 7/8/10 BOX
    RACE #2 $80,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
    4 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET
    PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
    WIN 8-5 1 Hob Alwatan J Rosario
    PLACE 8-1 9 Mangione G Corrales
    SHOW 4-1 4 Saddle Up F Geroux
    WILD CARD 6-1 7 Sonofaship T Gaffalione
    ALTERNATE 1 12-1 13 Dunphy L Saez
    ALTERNATE 2 10-1 12 Ore Mine E Morales
    * EXACTA: 1-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
    * TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 4/7/9 BOX
    RACE #3 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
    1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET
    PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
    WIN 5-1 2 Goodbetterbest I Ortiz Jr.
    PLACE 7-2 7 Toffee C Landeros
    SHOW 10-1 12 Colonel Grace V Cheminaud
    WILD CARD 9-2 8 Powder My Nose W A Rodriguez
    ALTERNATE 1 3-1 13 Amenset R Gutierrez
    ALTERNATE 2 10-1 9 Azamana Empire R Miranda
    * EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-12 BOX, 12-8 BOX
    * TRIFECTA: 2/7/12 BOX, 7/8/12 BOX
    RACE #4 $110,000 ALLOWANCE
    7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET
    BEST BET: #3 PAGE ONE
    PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
    WIN 2-1 3 Page One G Corrales
    PLACE 8-5 7 Patient Capital T Gaffalione
    SHOW 7-2 6 Bourbon Creed B J Hernandez Jr.
    WILD CARD 20-1 1 War Room W A Rodriguez
    ALTERNATE 1 4-1 5 Judge Davis I Ortiz Jr.
    ALTERNATE 2 30-1 2 Amanis Eagle C Landeros
    * EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
    * TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX
    RACE #5 $100,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
    6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET
    PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
    WIN 6-1 10 Lupos Legacy R Gutierrez
    PLACE 2-1 3 Sidekick I Ortiz Jr.
    SHOW 4-1 1 Real Naughty F Geroux
    WILD CARD 9-2 9 Tim Tal C J Hernandez
    ALTERNATE 1 15-1 11 Certain T Gaffalione
    ALTERNATE 2 8-1 4 Kingmaker J Rosario
    * EXACTA: 10-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
    * TRIFECTA: 1/3/10 BOX, 1/3/9 BOX
    RACE #6 $110,000 ALLOWANCE
    1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET
    BEST BET: #4 QUALITY STAR
    PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
    WIN 8-1 4 Quality Star J Talamo
    PLACE 7-5 11 Diamond Hands I Ortiz Jr.
    SHOW 4-1 14 Mytown Myrules E Morales
    WILD CARD 6-1 1 Queen Judith F Geroux
    ALTERNATE 1 15-1 6 Precursory C J Hernandez
    ALTERNATE 2 10-1 7 Texas Shuffle L Saez
    * EXACTA: 4-11 BOX, 11-14 BOX, 14-1 BOX
    * TRIFECTA: 4/11/14 BOX, 1/11/14 BOX
    RACE #7 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
    1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET
    BEST BET: #10 CURL GIRL
    PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
    WIN 9-5 10 Curl Girl F Prat
    PLACE 7-2 2 Kantheia B J Hernandez Jr.
    SHOW 15-1 4 Princess Cairo L Saez
    WILD CARD 6-1 6 Call Me Toni S Sanjur
    ALTERNATE 1 8-1 11 Queen of the Rodeo T Gaffalione
    ALTERNATE 2 15-1 9 Soultitlesready A Beschizza
    * EXACTA: 10-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
    * TRIFECTA: 2/4/10 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
    RACE #8 $120,000 ALLOWANCE
    1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET
    PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
    WIN 5-2 1 Verbal I Ortiz Jr.
    PLACE 6-1 5 Script J R Velazquez
    SHOW 15-1 15 Eyes On Target F Prat
    WILD CARD 3-1 16 Creative Minister B J Hernandez Jr.
    ALTERNATE 1 7-2 3 Creed L Saez
    ALTERNATE 2 9-2 7 Strong Quality F Geroux
    * EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-15 BOX, 15-16 BOX
    * TRIFECTA: 1/5/15 BOX, 5/15/16 BOX
    RACE #9 $20,000 CLAIMING
    1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:16 PM ET
    PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
    WIN 7-2 2 Lord Donegal F Prat
    PLACE 12-1 9 Nordic Light A Beschizza
    SHOW 5-2 1 Caballo Feliz B J Hernandez Jr.
    WILD CARD 9-2 10 Mr. Bouma J Talamo
    ALTERNATE 1 12-1 7 Classic Mark T Gaffalione
    ALTERNATE 2 6-1 6 River Boy L Saez
    * EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX, 1-10 BOX
    * TRIFECTA: 1/2/9 BOX, 1/9/10 BOX

  3. #3
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    346,694
    Rep Power
    381
    Aqueduct Hotlist - April 13

    Apr. 12, 2023


    By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
    Hot List Key:
    A:
    A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
    *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
    *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
    * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
    2nd race [Alw 50000s, 1 1/8 mi] – (7) Desert Dalliance (C) was bet down from 7-1 to 7-2 in her second start following a layoff when she rallied wide to finish second with a big increase in speed figures. (4) She Caught My Eye won two of her last three starts moving from a N2L to a N3L with an almost 11 length victory in January when she was claimed for $14,000 by Linda Rice. (5) Vodkatini set the pace and finished second just two weeks ago at this starter allowance level. (1) Wishing On a Star broke his maiden for $20,000 just two weeks ago.
    3rd race [Clm 25000 N3L, 1 mi] – (5) Higher Quality won a $40,000 N2L claimer back in July at Saratoga. (2) Colloquy won his second race for a $40,000 tag and then stepped up to face a starter allowance field and was fifth. (7) Midnight Worker drops back to the $25,000 level where he was a winner back in January. (1) Centavo has two career wins at Aqueduct and a win and a second at the Big A recently.
    6th race [Md Sp Wt, 1 mi TURF] – (9) Won an Angel (A) was second back In October in his debut in a turf sprint for this Colts Neck Stable home bred. (6) Ohana Honor will make his second start following a long layoff and will try the turf for the first time for Shug McGaughey. (2) Sacred Rhyme will make his debut for Chad Brown and as we know Brown is a frequent winner with his turf firsters. (1) Equal Protection faced two very strong fields in his first two starts and then moved to the turf where he ran fifth after steadying around the eighth pole.
    8th race [OC80K/N3X, 6F TURF] – (4) Nothing Better has been off since 2022 when he hit the board in all seven starts with his last five races in stakes. He won the Turf Sprint Championship at Aqu in November. (9) Slipstream is a graded stakes winner at Belmont Park. He also won a Stake at Keeneland in April and then went to Royal Ascot for Christophe Clement. (1) Thin White Duke and (1A) Yes and Yes are both win contenders for David Donk. (2) Anaconda ran in a pair of stakes races for Joe Sharp following a layoff with a big improvement in speed figures last month.
    Best bets: Desert Dalliance (2nd); Higher Quality (3rd). Best value: Won an Angel (6th); Nothing Better (8th).
    No. Name Letter/
    last race
    Today's Race Comments
    (7) Desert Dalliance C on 3/12 2 Big improvement in her second start after a layoff.
    (10) Achilles Heel B on 3/17 5 Entered for Main Track Only.
    (9) Won an Award C on 10/28 6 Returns from an October layoff after running second.

  4. #4
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    346,694
    Rep Power
    381
    Keeneland Hotlist - April 13

    Apr. 12, 2023


    By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
    Hot List Key:
    A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
    *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
    *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
    * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
    2nd race – (1) Hob Alwatan has been working quickly for his debut with Ward and should win at first asking. (4) Saddle Up should be a main threat. (7) Sonofaship has been working steadily for Maker and figures to be a factor. (9) Mangione also debuts for Ward and merits consideration. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-7-9.
    4th race – (7) Patient Capital ships in from New York off a string of solid efforts and looks best here. (3) Page One may perk up back on dirt. (6) Bourbon Creed disappointed last time but can rebound here. (5) Judge Davis was bumped at the start and can turn in a better try here. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-7. Exactas: 3-7 over 5-6 and 5-6 over 3-7. Doubles: 3-5-6-7 with 1-3-9-11.
    5th race – (1) Real Naughty debuts for Cox and seems primed for a big effort. (3) Sidekick moves into Shug’s barn and should be formidable here. (11) Certain could turn in a solid try while facing claimers. (9) Tim Tal was no worse than third in his last three tries and cannot be ignored. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-9-11.
    8th race – (1) Verbal rallied belatedly for fourth in a stakes but should get the job done here. (3) Creed was ill-prepared for the start last time but figures to get a better trip here. (7) Strong Quality has enough speed to be a force here. (6) Point Me By has been working sharply for his 2023 debut. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6-7. Doubles: 1-3-6-7 with 1-2-9-10. 9th race – (2) Lord Donegal drops from a stakes into a claimer and looks best in this field. (1) Caballo Feliz had a rough trip at Oaklawn when second and shapes up as the one to fear. (10) Mr. Bouma will be on the front end and may hang around until the end. (9) Nordic Light has been on Tapeta but was second in his last race at Keeneland. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-9-10.

  5. #5
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    346,694
    Rep Power
    381
    Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


    Keeneland - Race #6
    Picks Notes
    #4 Quality Star She's a pretty honest finisher who also has a tiny touch of tactical pace when needed, and that versatility might serve her well behind a pace that may not turn all that hot. Interested to see if she has some upside on the move back to the grass.
    #11 Diamond Hands Her pace should give her a chance to overcome the wide draw, but I have a mild worry that she's not really known for passing horses and might have to have everything go her way at a short price. Clearly capable.
    #5 Implosion Think he's worth a look at a mid-range price while moving back over a turf course that produced a really good effort here last fall. Nothing wrong with picking up Gaffialone, who has been among the best turf route riders here in recent years.
    Race Summary Quality Star might be able to find a decent spot within striking range of the pace, and she has been a pretty reliable operator throughout her career. Think she's worth a look while getting back on the lawn.
    Keeneland - Race #7
    Picks Notes
    #2 K'Antheia She finished up nicely in that debut try behind a forwardly placed longshot winner on Louisiana Derby day, and these connections have been hitting their spring stride lately. Think she'll step up enough to win this.
    #7 Fearless Kristie She ran fine enough with a little bit of trouble in the Fair Grounds debut, and she seemed well meant that day against what felt like a modest field. She might have some upside around two turns. Interesting if the price is right.
    #10 Curl Girl She should be up on the pace while stretching out, but I worry that she might have some company and could be vulnerable late. That said, the comeback race was sharp in a quick spot, and she wouldn't be any surprise.
    Race Summary Thought #5 I Had That One Too was a little interesting here after an improved effort around two turns last out, but K'Antheia might get a decent enough trip while stretching out, especially if she's away a bit more cleanly today.
    Keeneland - Race #8
    Picks Notes
    #1 Verbal He has never faced winners outside graded stakes company, so this class relief might do a world of good for him after he ran on with some enthusiasm with Grade III company at Tampa off the break last out.
    #7 Strong Quality That February try was a pretty solid turf debut, and he should be able to find a great spot right up on the splits in a race with a handful of possible finishers from the back. Lots to like.
    #6 Point Me By Easy to forget he's a Grade I winner, but a good bit of his form from last year looks playable in this spot if he's ready to go. Possible for a piece.
    Race Summary I'd also want to get a look at #2 Cowboy Justice on the track, but I'd consider including him in what may not be the strongest race once you get past the top pair. Verbal seems likely to get a bit here, but I'm thinking he'll handle these.

  6. #6
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    346,694
    Rep Power
    381
    Frank Carulli's Daily Picks


    Gulfstream Park - Race #1
    Picks Notes
    #8 SUN AZTECA (5-1) Tries to follow the lead of her stakes-winning dam.
    #5 QUIVER OF FEAR (3-1) Debuts for Ward; dam was first or second in 9 of 13 starts.
    #2 CHEROKEE (4-1) Showing some zip in the mornings at Gulfstream.
    Race Summary SUN AZTECA debuts for a barn on a 16-for-72 run with 2-year-olds. Her dam, Northern Netti, won the first three starts of her career, capped by a 9-1/4-length romp in a $100,000 stakes race at Belmont. Bet to win and place.
    Gulfstream Park - Race #2
    Picks Notes
    #3 MEET THE BEAUTY (7-2) Has speed, has to get added distance on the class drop.
    #5 HEIRESSINDY (2-1) Lightly-raced 6yo drops and shortens up in bid to end winless drought.
    #4 ARROW SHAPE (7-2) Steady check getter had trouble at break in 5 of last 11 starts.
    Race Summary MEET THE BEAUTY stalked the 4-to-5 winner through solid fractions before fading in the stretch for a higher claiming tag. She won the last time Jaramillo was aboard and will have to carry her speed an extra furlong today. Bet to win and place and play 3-4 and 3-5 exactas.
    Gulfstream Park - Race #7
    Picks Notes
    #8 SCOTTISH SYMPHONY (9-2) Loomed boldly at top of lane as beaten fave in lone turf try.
    #5 DONTLOOKBACKATALL (6-5) Beat all firsters on Saratoga lawn, ran troubled fourth in G-III stakes.
    #2 ALTERNATE ROCK (4-1) Can make good use of her speed, distance the question.
    Race Summary SCOTTISH SYMPHONY, unhurried for a half-mile in a 7-1/2F turf test two starts back, advanced between rivals on the turn and finished willingly after she angled 4-wide for the stretch drive. Bet to win and place and play a 5-8 exacta box.

  7. #7
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    346,694
    Rep Power
    381
    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

    PURCHASE
    Charles Town - Race 2
    Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (2-3) / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
    Claiming $4,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up CR: 55 • Purse: $9,700 • Post: 7:30P
    FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 13, 2022. WEIGHT, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 13, 2022 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (W V A RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).
    Contenders
    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line
    Accept
    Odds

    Race Type: Dominant Stalker. BONNIE BLUETOOTH is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BONNIE BLUETOOTH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. HAD TH E NOTION: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CHIT CHAT GIRL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in averag e Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
    6
    BONNIE BLUETOOTH
    5/2
    3/1
    2
    HAD THE NOTION
    7/2
    7/1
    4
    CHIT CHAT GIRL
    2/1
    7/1

    P#
    Horse (In Running Style Order)
    Post
    Morn
    Line
    Running Style
    Good
    Class
    Good
    Speed
    Early Figure
    Finish Figure
    Platinum
    Figure
    6
    BONNIE BLUETOOTH
    6
    5/2
    Stalker
    66
    55
    53.0
    52.8
    44.3
    4
    CHIT CHAT GIRL
    4
    2/1
    Alternator/Trailer
    62
    50
    50.6
    51.8
    47.3
    2
    HAD THE NOTION
    2
    7/2
    Alternator/Trailer
    69
    54
    12.8
    51.0
    47.5
    5
    CREEDIBILITY
    5
    9/2
    Alternator/Trailer
    60
    45
    11.4
    47.0
    40.0
    8
    MOJO MATTERS
    8
    15/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    60
    48
    31.8
    42.0
    32.5
    1
    MOONLIGHT MISS
    1
    15/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    57
    42
    26.4
    35.2
    22.7
    7
    UPSY DAISY DO
    7
    15/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    55
    32
    17.6
    32.2
    21.7
    3
    TINA'S SONG
    3
    15/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    52
    36
    12.4
    28.6
    13.1

  8. #8
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    346,694
    Rep Power
    381
    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream ParkPURCHASE


    Gulfstream Park - Race 5
    $1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 $.50 Bet 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
    Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up CR: 95 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 2:39P
    FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
    Contenders
    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line
    Accept
    Odds

    Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CREATE AGAIN: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distan ce/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MR TITO'S: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the d istance/surface. LEASE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
    3
    CREATE AGAIN
    8/1
    9/2
    5
    MR TITO'S
    5/2
    6/1
    4
    LEASE
    10/1
    7/1

    P#
    Horse (In Running Style Order)
    Post
    Morn
    Line
    Running Style
    Good
    Class
    Good
    Speed
    Early Figure
    Finish Figure
    Platinum
    Figure
    3
    CREATE AGAIN
    3
    8/1
    Front-runner
    95
    85
    71.1
    84.1
    75.1
    4
    LEASE
    4
    10/1
    Alternator/Front-runner
    89
    86
    85.0
    76.0
    69.0
    7
    RHYMES LIKE DIMES
    7
    5/1
    Alternator/Stalker
    87
    88
    80.2
    76.4
    67.4
    1
    HARD BELLE
    1
    2/1
    Alternator/Stalker
    92
    94
    68.6
    81.4
    72.4
    5
    MR TITO'S
    5
    5/2
    Trailer
    95
    87
    60.2
    87.2
    82.2
    6
    THENORTHREMEMBERS
    6
    15/1
    Trailer
    88
    80
    55.6
    78.0
    67.5
    2
    PERFECT CUT
    2
    4/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    93
    90
    76.4
    79.2
    74.7

  9. #9
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    346,694
    Rep Power
    381
    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    PURCHASE


    Evangeline Downs - Race #1 - Post: 5:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 55

    Rating:

    #3 MULETRAIN (ML=8/1)
    #1 TUCKER THE GRUMP (ML=2/1)


    MULETRAIN - Taking a drop in class figure points from his Feb 25th race at Delta Downs. Based on that valuable data, I will give this animal the edge. Recent Equibase speed figs show dominant pattern of improvement. TUCKER THE GRUMP - Vargas is back up for another contest today after riding aboard this animal for the first ride on Mar 26th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. This gelding is in nice form. Ran third on Mar 26th. This horse earns a lot of money per race. Tops in this race.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #6 ONE MORE SLEEP (ML=3/1), #5 PAC THE PULPIT (ML=4/1), #7 HARD KINGS (ML=5/1),

    ONE MORE SLEEP - Can't play this runner in today's sprint of 7 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a short distance clash lately. The speed fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class figure of today's affair. Mark this thoroughbred as a possibly overvalued equine. PAC THE PULPIT - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint races of late. Doubtful to see him doing it this time either. HARD KINGS - This thoroughbred just hasn't looked sharp of late.

    GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - TUCKER THE GRUMP - After a layoff, has had a few races and today he enters a sprint race. Should be back in form, so I expect this thoroughbred to perform well right here.




    STRAIGHT WAGERS: #3 MULETRAIN to win at post-time odds of 5/2 or better
    EXACTA WAGERS: Box [1,3]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    None
    SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None

  10. #10
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    346,694
    Rep Power
    381
    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

    PURCHASE
    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.




    Race 11 - Maiden - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 67

    QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    # 6 APOLLITICAL WZY 15/1
    # 10 ACOWBOYWALKSINTOABAR 5/1
    # 7 KVN KNOCKOUT 20/1

    APOLLITICAL WZY has a very good shot to take this outing and is a very good value bet given the line at 15/1. He must be given consideration given the solid speed figures. Castro has a strong 19 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. ACOWBOYWALKSINTOABAR - Based on past performances, bets on the progeny of this sire would be considered reliable. Melton has garnered strong dividends (+124 ROI ) with first asking starters. Very good sire figures will play a key role in this gelding travelling well.

  11. #11
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    346,694
    Rep Power
    381
    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    PURCHASE


    Lone Star Park - Race #2 - Post: 7:03pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 59

    Rating:

    #7 BODEFIDE (ML=3/1)
    #3 YVONNE'S MISS (ML=2/1)


    BODEFIDE - Sprinters that come back to the races quickly are generally good plays. The return on investment when Diaz and Caldwell team up is fantastic. Took a significant drop in class rating in the last race at Sam Houston. Returning to a similar class level in this race. Should do well in this race. YVONNE'S MISS - In the last race on May 27th was a good tune-up for today. Got decent betting action in that one, but finished second. Should do much better in this race. The May 27th event at Golden Gate Fields was at a class level of (69). Dropping to a lower level considerably, so she should be in a good place. Just view her last speed rating, 59. That one looks good in this bunch. Morey, the trainer, shows intent by adding Lasix in this event. A positive sign. She has the highest earnings per race. Take a good look at this horse.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #5 LIL MISS SUNSHINE (ML=8/5), #4 BELL PEPPER (ML=8/1),

    LIL MISS SUNSHINE - Hard to bet this mount the way she ran unpredictably last time out of the box. BELL PEPPER - I'd like to see more preferred recent showings with morning line odds of 8/1.



    STRAIGHT WAGERS: Putting our cash on #7 BODEFIDE to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though
    EXACTA WAGERS: Box [3,7]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    None
    SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None

  12. #12
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Posts
    346,694
    Rep Power
    381
    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Keeneland

    PURCHASE
    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.




    Race 4 - Allowance - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $110000 Class Rating: 101

    FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $22,800 SINCE FEBRUARY 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. $21,600 SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS.

    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    # 3 PAGE ONE 2/1
    # 6 BOURBON CREED 7/2
    # 7 PATIENT CAPITAL 8/5

    PAGE ONE looks to be a solid contender. His 93 average has this colt with among the best speed figures for this race. He looks decent in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. Had one of the most competitive Equibase Speed Figures of this group of horses in his last race. BOURBON CREED - Overall the Equibase speed figs of this animal look very strong in this outing. Bettors using horses with this rider and conditioner combo have done solidly recently. PATIENT CAPITAL - Is a definite contender - given the 88 Equibase speed fig from his most recent race. This gelding looks good in this event since Maker has a sharp win percentage with horses going this distance.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •