Thursday 4/11/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Keeneland - Race #4

#1 Rock N Roll Bolt	Interested to see him cut back for this one after really coming to life since getting around two turns, but this is a slightly longer sprint trip than he has tried before, and he might find a cozy spot along the fence while tucked behind the pace.
#8 Jefferson Street	He's supposed to be tough here after a couple solid efforts to open his career, and he probably wins this with any step forward off the comeback run. Short price.
#4 Cage Match	He ran a few lengths better than his stablemate drawn just inside him in that common special weight debut run at Aqueduct last month, and he has some logical upside today.
Race Summary	Rock N Roll Bolt might get a bit overlooked in a race where a few of them likely have more upside, but I think he might get a good go of things from the rail draw while coming out of a few races I liked in New Orleans.

Keeneland - Race #6

#10 Strikingly Spun	She'll have to fire fresh against a pretty good group, but her Kentucky Downs and Churchill form from last year really doesn't feel that far off what it might take to keep her in the frame at a price.
#4 Pleasant Passage	She was second in the Breeders' Cup over this course a couple seasons ago, and I'm expecting she'll be ready to fire off the bench today. Better stuff makes her one of the ones.
#2 Ro Town	Forward trips have seemed a slight benefit so far here, and I really like this one's last score. Think she's going to be in play turning for home.
Race Summary	Would want #3 Spansive and #11 Papilo on the multi-race tickets if the more important opinions were in other races. Strikingly Spun has some midrange price appeal while racing fresh today.

Keeneland - Race #8

#11 Santorini	The synthetic form at Turfway is fine, but there are a couple intriguing turf runs on his page that might be enough to keep him in the picture. First-jump trip from a wide draw?
#12 Limited Liability	He's probably going to be tough on class, as the two wins on his page are the two times he raced outside of graded stakes company, but the wide draw and his closing style at this kind of trip could leave him with too much to do late.
#5 The Gray Wizard	He's back off the bench with some classy graded credentials of his own, but I think this trip might be a touch sharp for him. Capable player, but better set up for next time?
Race Summary	Fun race to close out the day, and Santorini might have a good trip waiting for him right up near the top. He just missed here in stakes company last year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#7 BELTS NO BROOKS (8-1)	Buried weak field at distance recently in second start as a gelding.
#4 MAJOR KING (5-2)	Often in the hunt, seldom wins, wears blinkers for first time.
#2 ENDLESS SUNSET (2-1)	Lone two-time winner at distance gets needed class relief.
Race Summary	BELTS N BROOKS took off the blinkers and won despite drifting wide in late stretch when claimed for $12,500 two starts back. He raced far back against better last out, now runs for the cheapest tag of his career. Play a 2-4-7 exacta box.

Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#5 THE CONNECTOR (7-2)	Once classy 7-year-old lures Paco to ride in second start off long layoff.
#6 MR NARCISSISTIC (2-1)	Sat good trip in fast heat, ended long winless drought, one to beat.
#1 DEVILS ONLY FRIEND (4-1)	Drops, has speed and the rail on return to all-weather track.
Race Summary	THE CONNECTOR, an eight-time winner against mostly nw/3 types, was claimed after a two-year layoff for a higher price than he runs for today. He picks up 13 pounds with Paco summoned to ride and looks like an all-or-nothing type. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4

#1 NANA FANNY (3-1)	Had trouble lines in three straight, can end 2-year drought with clean rail trip.
#6 PEACE SEEKER (8-5)	Followed move of fave when second at this distance on all-weather surface.
#3 MO TOURING (2-1)	Lightly-raced 5yo piling up checks but drops another notch below claim level.
Race Summary	NANA FANNY is reunited with Paco, who was aboard the 5-year-old mare when she bumped a rival while angling out at the top of the stretch and finished third to Current Situation (41/6-5-8, $151k) in a $12,500 claimer. She takes a magnified class drop in a field that is a combined 19-for-200. Bet to win and place and play 1-3 and 1-6 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 4	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1.00 Bet 3 (Races 4-5-6) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 4-5-6-7-8)
Claiming $8,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 2:46P
FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 11, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF THREE RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000 (IF NO THREE-YEAR-OLDS ARE ENTERED, OLDER WEIGHT WILL REVERT TO 122 LBS.).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MO TOURING: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. PEACE SEEKER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WICKLOW GAL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. NANA FANNY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. RADIANT GEM: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	MO TOURING	2/1	5/1
6	PEACE SEEKER	8/5	6/1
4	WICKLOW GAL	8/1	8/1
1	NANA FANNY	3/1	8/1
2	RADIANT GEM	20/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	WICKLOW GAL	4	8/1	Front-runner	81	75	84.2	63.0	56.0
7	A RING THING	7	8/1	Front-runner	78	73	65.4	66.0	56.5
3	MO TOURING	3	2/1	Stalker	80	76	58.8	76.8	73.8
2	RADIANT GEM	2	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	74	79.0	61.2	52.2
1	NANA FANNY	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	70	72.6	70.4	61.9
6	PEACE SEEKER	6	8/5	Alternator/Stalker	88	77	52.8	74.2	70.2
5	VELOCISSIMA	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	70	81.7	63.4	49.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf ParadisePURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 6	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 6-7) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) $.50 Pick 5 (Races 6-7-8-9-10)
Stakes • 1 3/8 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 102 • Purse: $60,000 • Post: 3:33P
WILDCAT S. - FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD. $500 TO ENTER. STARTERS TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. WEIGHTS: THREE YEAR OLD 118 LBS. OLDER 124 LBS. (PURSE INCLUDES $50,000 FROM THE PURSE ACCOUNT PLUS $10,000 FROM THE STATE ENHANCEMENT FUND). NON-WINNER OF $15,000 TWICE IN 2023-2024. 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN 4 LBS. PREFERENCE BY TOTAL EARNINGS IN 2023-2024. FAILURE TO DRAW INTO THE RACE CANCELS ALL FEES.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. YANKEE DOLLAR is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * KENNEBEC: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MR. WHO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MIDNIGHT JOSTAR: Horse has a TrackMas ter "+" designation or an "L" designation. YANKEE DOLLAR: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. PRIMO TOUCH: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
5	KENNEBEC	5/2	9/2
8	MR. WHO	5/1	7/1
1	MIDNIGHT JOSTAR	4/1	7/1
6	YANKEE DOLLAR	7/2	8/1
2	PRIMO TOUCH	8/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	NASHVILLE SKYLINE	4	12/1	Front-runner	84	87	108.1	86.3	72.3
8	MR. WHO	8	5/1	Front-runner	102	100	101.4	90.3	84.8
2	PRIMO TOUCH	2	8/1	Front-runner	104	95	93.2	91.3	81.3
6	YANKEE DOLLAR	6	7/2	Stalker	96	92	81.2	91.6	85.1
5	KENNEBEC	5	5/2	Trailer	104	100	97.8	101.8	98.8
1	MIDNIGHT JOSTAR	1	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	104	102	91.8	95.5	88.0
3	DARK MARCUS	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	77	85.4	79.6	65.1
7	TEXTHELEGEND	7	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	95	87	70.2	74.9	63.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 76

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JANUARY 1 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 26 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 11 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 11 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 JABARI 3/1
# 4 EXPONENTIAL 2/1
# 1 HARALDBLUETOOTH 10/1

I've got to go with JABARI. Monserrate should be able to get this horse to break out quickly in here. Earned a respectable Equibase Speed Fig last time out. EXPONENTIAL - Has very good speed figures and has to be considered for a bet in this event. Recent numbers for the jockey - 29 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group. HARALDBLUETOOTH - Had one of the best Equibase Speed Figs of this field in his last race. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the strongest class figures of this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:50pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,400 Class Rating: 44

Rating:

#2 DEE'S KY WILDCAT (ML=9/2)


DEE'S KY WILDCAT - Took a class drop last time out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Calderon keeps her at the same level in today's race. I think that's a good move. Widely used handicapping angle - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. A live one today. Look for this mare to run better right here in this race. Last event at Mahoning Valley Race Cour finishing fourth on a muddy track is no indication of her true ability.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 HALO EFFECT (ML=2/1), #6 GHOSTLY REVIVAL (ML=5/2), #4 TITEBLUEJEANS (ML=3/1),

HALO EFFECT - Tough to put any money on this filly on the front end. Likes to finish in the money though. GHOSTLY REVIVAL - This racer hasn't won at this oval. TITEBLUEJEANS - Tough to put any money on this mare on the front end. Likes to hit the board though. Last raced on March 27th at Mahoning Valley Race Cour, finishing third. Not likely to move up off of that effort in today's race. Once you've got at least ten races at the venue and still have no victories, its tough to break through for a victory.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - DEE'S KY WILDCAT - At first glance the last affair doesn't look that good, but upon further inspection that race fits right with this bunch.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 DEE'S KY WILDCAT to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Keeneland - Race #8 - Post: 4:44pm - Allowance - 9.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $130,000 Class Rating: 114

Rating:

#9 CHASING THE CROWN (ML=5/1)
#5 THE GREY WIZARD (IRE) (ML=6/1)
#11 SANTORINI (ML=8/1)
#10 FORT WASHINGTON (ML=4/1)


CHASING THE CROWN - Lets try to beat the probable favorites with this horse. Just missed last out, but ran a decent race. I like a thoroughbred that manages to be there at the wire as often as this horse. Almost always in the money so don't leave him out of your exotic bets. Entered the Fair Grounds Presented by Horse Racing Nation at Fair Grounds last out and raced on the soft turf finishing fifth. I'd expect a better race right here. THE GREY WIZARD (IRE) - A little change in scenery has got to do this horse well. Reading the recent PP lines, it seems like he likes to visit the winner's circle on different racing tracks. This gelding seems to run pretty good after a vacation. I always like to see a racer getting Lasix for the first time. Motion adds it on this one today. SANTORINI - This one likes to win on different tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. Jockey and handler do well when they are put together. Prat and Brisset have been reliable together. A repeat of that most recent effort on February 17th where he notched a speed fig of 110 looks lofty enough to prove victorious in this affair. FORT WASHINGTON - The morning line odds on this horse are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler McGaughey. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (sixth). Should improve in this event, with some decent odds. Sub-par try last out at Gulfstream Park was due to the off-going (he ended up sixth). Has to do better in this race without the off-track conditions. McGaughey, the trainer, shows intent by adding Lasix in this event. A positive sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #12 LIMITED LIABILITY (ML=3/1), #14 HAYES STRIKE (ML=4/1), #13 GIANT GAME (ML=6/1),

LIMITED LIABILITY - I usually try to beat these types of favorites off the extended vacation. When examining today's class figure, he will have to notch a much better speed rating than in the last race to battle in this turf route. HAYES STRIKE - Notched a somewhat easily forgotten fig in the last race in an $80,000 Optional Claiming race on March 9th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that number. GIANT GAME - This horse finished out of the top three on November 24th and wasn't even close last time out either.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#9 CHASING THE CROWN is going to be the play if we are getting 9/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,9,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Trial - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 84

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLD ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA BREDS THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHT 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 FLY GIRL 123 7/2
# 8 EVERY COWBOYS DESIRE 12/1
# 1 FAVORITE COWGIRL 123 3/1

FLY GIRL 123 has a formidable shot to take this race. This filly could improve with second time Lasix. EVERY COWBOYS DESIRE - Has strong trainer numbers (Chavira wins 16 percent of the time with 2yolds) to back up this selection. Sire's figures - Flying Cowboy 123 - support this wagering choice. Chavira has a reliable 21 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. FAVORITE COWGIRL 123 - She looks like a very solid contender based on sire's progeny results as two-year olds. Look for a strong pace improvement from this animal who enters on Lasix today. Escobedo's ROI over the last 30 days automatically makes this animal a strong contender.