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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Churchill Downs - Race #3
Churchill Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes #12 Sweet Fantasy Debuter goes for a team that has done OK work with this kind locally over the last couple years. Logical player to consider while trying to get some players in with the price below. #10 Financial Whiz Willing to take a look at him on the tote and track ahead of this, as he's got a fun pedigree and a steady string of works leading into this. Interesting. #1 Austin Cruise He's probably ready to go for a capable team, but the rail is still not my favorite place to be with a debuting youngster. Check him out. Race Summary Thinking the firsters are going to rule this one, as I'm not totally sold on the strength of the few available running lines on the page here. Great race for using your eye in the paddock.
Churchill Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes #4 Johny's Fireball He makes a lot of sense here after taking a big step back last time out, but that maybe wasn't a huge surprise off the progressive form he was showing that earned him a Grade III placing in New Orleans. Lots to like, and capable on the drop when/if this comes over to the dirt. #12 Hayes Strike He will only go if this one comes over to the main, but the forecast a couple days out suggests that might be likely. He has been knocking on the door with similar and probably hits hard with these. #1 Salute the Stars He's interesting on either surface while racing fresh off a couple graded stakes tries last year. Obvious threat on either surface on class alone. Race Summary Johny's Fireball is probably capable of better after a dull run in Grade II company last time out, and I like that he can handle pretty much any footing.
Picks Notes #3 Wailua Strong lean here in the finale, as it feels like she was claimed with some purpose out of the debut run -- she was primed to score that day and has a pretty big pedigree for a filly on sale for $30k first out. Guessing the play won't be at the 10/1 ML offering. #9 Ready for Trouble There are some decent company lines on her page, but I worry she might not provide the right kind of value in the win pool compared to her chances of winning this. Better stuff would do. #11 Queen's Notice The recent Turfway form stacks up well enough, but she's still at least something of a question mark on the dirt, as her only local try wasn't much -- but it came in her debut. In the mix, but not a ton of enthusiasm here for me. Race Summary Wailua will probably take a little more cash than her 10/1 ML price suggests, but there are a couple angles to like off the solid debut run, and I'm guessing she can handle these right back in a race that doesn't feel too deep for the level.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Gulfstream Park - Race #3
Gulfstream Park - Race #4
Picks Notes #1 SOLOMON’S GOLD (7-2) Steady improvement to finish 1-2 in half of his starts, enters new barn. #5 DOUBLE PLAY KING (4-5) ‘Kept on’ for second in fast 7F race, can return quick claim dividend. #4 JOE DI BAGGIO (6-1) Re-claimed for the second time by trainer who got a lot of run out of him. Race Summary SOLOMON’S GOLD, claimed four times in his last five starts, had his two-race winning streak ended at this level. He runs well fresh, has a win at this distance and Vasquez retains the mount. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5 exacta box.
Gulfstream Park - Race #7
Picks Notes #7 IMAPEPPA (8-1) Switches pilots every start, chance on best from favorable post. #1 LIEUTENANT STAN (9-5) In top form, gets class relief, draws rail for first time since he won. #5 JABRAN (8-5) Outrun in latest, beat still winless rival, runs for cheapest tag yet. Race Summary IMAPEPPA broke his maiden at this level, then was no factor in a rapid-paced follow up and 9-wide after a bumpy break last out. He changes riders and could factor at a big price with a clean trip. Bet to win and place.
Picks Notes #3 GRAND BIRDIE (9-5) Visually impressive win nine months ago, simply a question of readiness. #5 KOZEM (6-1) Found Lasix of little help, starts fresh, gets pace to rally into. #4 BAHA SECRET (7-5) Set fast, pressured pace at 7F but couldn’t fend off the even-money fave. Race Summary The warning sign is up for GRAND BIRDIE, who hasn’t raced since a scintillating maiden romp in August. But the lightly-raced 4-year-old returned off a layoff that day, shook a challenge while in-hand on the lead and accelerated powerfully when asked for run in mid-stretch. Bet to win and place and play 3-4 and 3-5 exactas.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE
Delta Downs - Race 1 Maiden Claiming $15,000 • 250 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 58 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 6:15P QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * DASHN FOR CORONA: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase S peed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. TOASTEM PILOTO DASHN FOR CORONA
Unknown Running Style: LADY MAFIA (8/1) [Jockey: Lucio Jr Guadalupe - Trainer: Garcia Jose A], ZOOMIN IN MY WAGON (8/1) [Jockey: Rodriguez Jose Ariel - Trainer: Wilbanks Benjamin R], HERES AN EAGLE (15/1) [Jockey: Garcia Jorge Javier - Trainer: Casti
Line
Class
Speed
FigureIAMMISTERT Average/Trouble-prone ALL OVER YOU Average GOTTA COMMENT Slow DASHN FOR CORONA Fast TOASTEM PILOTO Slow
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra ParkPURCHASE
Belterra Park - Race 6 Allowance • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $27,600 • Post: 2:45P FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 9, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $17,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $15,000).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SHADOWY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SHADOWY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has th e highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. K KID: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. H orse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). SHADOWY K KID
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Class
Speed
FigureSHADOWY Front-runner RED HEAD KID Stalker K KID Alternator/Stalker TIER ONE Trailer CLEVELAND POWER Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 10 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 79
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHT 124 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 2 SHEZA FEARLESS EAGLE 6/5
# 8 AXLE D 6/1
# 6 SETTLE DOWN CINDY 8/1
I think SHEZA FEARLESS EAGLE is a decent choice. Shows sound Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group. The Lasix change (with second time Lasix) may spark a major improvement for this filly. Will almost certainly go to the front end and may never look back. AXLE D - Demonstrates the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 54 Equibase speed fig which is one of the top in this group. Put up a strong Equibase speed fig last time out. SETTLE DOWN CINDY - Look for a solid pace improvement from this equine who enters with second time Lasix today. Willis has one of the strongest winning percentages in this field with entries running at this distance and surface.
Pimlico - Race #2 - Post: 12:56pm - SO - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 82
Rating:
#1 LIVE FIRE (ML=3/1)
#4 STEVETHEVANDRIVER (ML=20/1)
LIVE FIRE - Have to give this horse a serious look. In recent races, has posted the best speed ratings on the turf at this distance. Based on the TrackMaster data I've reviewed, this gelding should run well off the vacation. McClellan drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping data to believe this one is in a good spot at this level. Earnings per race is something that I believe can be a very key handicapping factor. This horse is ranked number 1 in this bunch. STEVETHEVANDRIVER - Gelding had the second fastest workout of the day prepping for this. Rounding his way back into form. Each of his finish positions is getting better in his recent starts. Look at this pattern of improvement. 69/76/80 are the last 3 speed ratings. This gelding is in nice form, having run a good race on Apr 13th, finishing second.
Vulnerable Contenders: #9 PRINCE PERE (ML=2/1), #8 COMMANDING GENERAL (ML=7/2), #3 LOVE YOU MUCH (ML=4/1),
PRINCE PERE - Very long layoff, then came back and finished fourth. Hard to expect much better this time around. Speed figures tell a tale of decreasing condition. COMMANDING GENERAL - The pace scenario just isn't too promising for this speed merchant. Many other horses would have to scratch to aid his dreams at winning. The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a vulnerable contender. LOVE YOU MUCH - In the last event this less than sharp equine finished fifth. Doesn't bode well for his chances in today's event. Not easy to bet on any animal in a short distance race at 4/1 when he hasn't shown any positive results in sprints in the last couple months.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Play #1 LIVE FIRE to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more EXACTA WAGERS: Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Skip SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
Belmont at the Big A - Race #4 - Post: 2:35pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $37,000 Class Rating: 86
Rating:
#5 REFUAH (ML=8/1)
#7 WANNA WINNA (ML=5/2)
#2 ENDOWED (ML=6/1)
REFUAH - This fine animal should be rumbling in the stretch. WANNA WINNA - Was in a $40,000 Claiming race at Aqueduct last race out. That race had a class rating of 93 and he is moving down in this race. A certain solid contender. You have to really like that most recent race speed fig, 86, which is the highest last race speed figure of this bunch. ENDOWED - I expect this horse to shock some railbirds in today's event.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 FIGHTING BACK (ML=2/1), #6 FRIDAY I'M IN LOVE (ML=4/1), #1 BOBBY THE TANK (ML=6/1),
FIGHTING BACK - You should normally bet against chalks that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last three weeks. Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any type of closing response on April 13th. FRIDAY I'M IN LOVE - This gelding gave a lackluster effort last time out. Don't believe this runner will make an impact in today's race. That last speed rating was substandard when compared with today's class figure. BOBBY THE TANK - 6/1 odds isn't enough for this entrant when examining the most recent efforts. Don't believe this horse will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed rating was substandard when compared with today's class rating.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Have to go with #5 REFUAH on the win end if we get at least 4/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [2,5,7] Total Cost: $6
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 70
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 24 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE APRIL 9 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 9 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 7 JUNO SEA 7/2
# 8 DOMINANT JOY 2/1
# 2 JLO CAN DANCE 9/5
I like JUNO SEA here. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me back this mare. Has been running solidly lately and will most likely be on the lead early on. DOMINANT JOY - Shows reliable speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this field. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 70 - of her last effort. JLO CAN DANCE - Is difficult not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been very strong - 62 avg - of late. The speed figure of 67 from her latest race looks competitive in here.
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