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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 5/10/24
May 10, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know
Friday, May 10, 2024
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6-Tom and Jazzy; 2-Aurelian Man
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: We’ll double the opener but not with a high degree of confidence. Any one of the six could win, so the best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Tom and Jazzy is solid on numbers, has two prior wins over the local lawn, and takes a significant class drop from a first level allowance event to a restricted (nw-3) $30,000 claimer. He’s never been one to trust but may have found his friends today. Aurelian Man should be prominent throughout – very possibly the controlling speed - and in his second start off a layoff appears primed for a major effort. He’s not particular fast on numbers but given his projected trip may be set for a career top.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1-Night Beacon; 4-Angel From Above; 5-Runnin On Promises.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: There appears to be three quick fillies in this five runner juvenile dash, and all three should be included in rolling exotic play. Night Beacon has been impressive in the morning for R. Hanson with three excellent recent drills that included in a sharp half mile team breeze April 28 (4f, :47hg) in which she was much the best in a team drill. If she breaks cleanly from the rail, the daughter of Spun to Run will take some catching. Angel From Above likewise has displayed talent leading up to her debut, is bred to win early (Maclean’s Music) and hails from a barn that generally does very well with babies. A :34 flat bullet breeze April kinda jumps off the page. Runnin On Promise, from the first crop of the high class sprinter Promises Fulfilled, looks to have some talent, though we have no video from her a.m. preparation to lean on. The barn has excellent stats with first timers, so we’ll toss here in.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5-Tembo; 3-Granada Flavor.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Tembo has recent consistent form and should fire another big shot in this $10,000 main track miler for older horses. Nosed out while nearly six lengths clear of the rest in his last start, the S. Knapp-trained gelding won’t need much more than that to return to the winner’s circle against this modest band, and while he hasn’t been out in more than two months (and was off nearly two months before that), the son of Carpe Diem projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip and then have no excuses. Big class dropper Granada Flavor is the one to fear most. All three of his career victories have been accomplished over the Santa Anita main track, and while his two races since being claimed last summer have been uninspiring, the S. McCarthy-trained gelding takes a realistic class drop with numbers that fit and seems very likely to return to good form in this soft spot.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Pink Ace; 5-Blonde Bombshell.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Pink Ace launches a comeback for a barn that has strong stats with layoff runners and fits these starter allowance conditions perfectly, so we’re expecting the lightly raced four-year-old filly to fire a big shot off the bench. A recent sharp five furlong gate breeze (:59 3/5, second fastest of 43) catches the eye, and with one of the stable’s “go-to” riders taking the call we’re expecting the Phil D’Amato-trained daughter of Aikenite to be extremely live. This will be her first try on grass; hopefully she’ll like it though there’s little in her pedigree to suggest that she’ll move up on the sod. Blonde Bombshell wore down a $32,000 claiming field over the local lawn in mid-March and rates a reasonable look right back while being protected today in a sign of confidence. However, she does her best work from off the pace, and in a race that projects to have soft early splits she may not get the help up front that she’d prefer.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: Midnight Love; 1-Lettheliquourtalk.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Midnight Love lacks tactical speed but should have his chance to tag the speed close home once again, just as he did in a similar $32,000 seller here in his most recent start in mid-February. However, being away for 10 weeks and not being raised in class raises some red flags for the H. Palma-trained colt, so while we’ll certainly use him we’re not in love with the pattern. Lettheliquortalk has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and will be re-quipped with blinkers, so the J. Mullins-trained trained gelding could very well return to winning form in this weak affair. His runaway maiden claiming score three races back charts very well with this group, and with “win rider” H. Berrios staying aboard the son of Goldencents will try to bust out from the rail and take his field as far as he can.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Yellow Sun Dress
Backups/savers: 6-Perfect in Gray.
Forecast: Yellow Sun Dress was a visually pleasing winner of a stronger-than-average maiden $50,000 dash here in her first outing in nearly a year (and in just her second career start) over this course and distance for high percentage trainer Mark Glatt and is protected today while seeking a repeat score. The daughter of Karakontie earned a very good number, shows an easy breeze to tick her over last week, retains K. Frey, and seems quite solid as a logical rolling exotic single. The barn has an excellent record with repeaters (22%) so we’re expecting a similar performance today and perhaps even better.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: Sabres; 7-I’m Still in It.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Sabres drops to the bottom maiden claiming ($20,000) level and adds blinkers, so the D. O’Neill-trained filly could be too quick for this modest band based on speed figures and the race’s pace projection. No excuses. I’m Still in It has been sparingly raced but she does exit a fast, highly rated turf sprint and certainly will enjoy this softer assignment. However, all four of her prior starts have come on grass, so this switch to dirt leaves us in the dark. Have to respect the barn, though.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 5-Grazen in the Sun; 6-Hotitude.
Backups/savers: 7-Issa Court.
Forecast: Grazen in the Sun just won a strong Hillside dash vs. California-bred foes last month and today returns to the claiming ranks (but remains above her claim level) while trying her luck over the flat course. She’s a strong fit on speed figures and a may have found a home on grass for her high percentage connections, who probably won’t still have her after the race. Hotitude is good enough to win if she’s healthy and she is a two-time winner over the local lawn, but the pattern is suspicious, to say the least. The K. Mulhall-trained eight-year-old mare has never raced this cheaply, and following a nine month layoff the veteran mare returns for a modest $20,000 tag after missing by a head in an $80,000 optional claimer in which she was protected last summer at Del Mar. The work tab looks average, but she did win following a year vacation over this turf course last year. There are simply too many mixed signals to have confidence, but Pick-6 players have to use her just in case.
Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis
May 10, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a 10-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 7, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 7 (9:00 PM EST)
1-Karma Seelster (9/5)-Couldn't connect in the Borgata Series but did best this kind on 3-8. Doesn't have big gate speed but Jordan Stratton should get a cozy trip and be in the hunt at the wire.
5-Golden Quest N (2-1)-Winner of 3 straight is a threat landing on the point or coming off cover. Best to respect the winning streak staying intact and could provide more value than the morning line chalk.
Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)
3-Silk Cloud A (7/2)-Picked up a win as the chalk caved on the lead, but don't discount the effort. Stratton provided a perfect steer, did close in 55.1 and could double up at a fair price.
5-Lit De Rose (2-1)-This time Pat Lachance is going to have the pedal down and take control when the wings fold. At least that is what makes sense to me. If so, that puts the mare in a position to win for the 3rd time in the last 4 starts.
Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)
1-True Blue Hanover (2-1)-This 4-year-old wired the last group and made it look easy. Takes on a couple of older foes who could be a challenge, so this won't be a cake walk. Does well racing on the point and should find her way on the lead when the wings fold.
4-Uptown Hanover (5/2)-The Tyler Buter-Jeff Cullipher combo has clicked for 25% winners and this veteran mare could be forwardly placed early on. Should be a main player with a sharp steer.
Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)
2-Diamante Trio It (3-1)-Bumps up after landing in the pocket leaving from post 7. There are no standouts in this group and will take a swing with George Brennan leaving from the inside.
5-Swiss House Onfire (12-1)-This is a dropper in a field where half the group is moving up in class. Lands back at the level of its last picture on 3-1. Will look for an aggressive try from Jimmy Pants. He should be out and rolling from the word "go".
$1.00 Late Pick 4
1,5/3,5/1,4/2,5
Total Bet=$16
Pimlico Late Pick 4 Friday, May 10
May 10, 2024 | By Frank Carulli
PIMLICO LATE PICK 4
Friday, May 10, 2024
Fillies and mares will be in the spotlight on the second day of Pimlico’s Preakness Meet this Friday, May 10. The 50-cent Late Pick 4 encompasses a 6F starter allowance, 5F maiden claimer on the turf and a pair of 1-1/16-mile dirt routes. Here’s a closer look:
PIM 6th race (3:10 p.m. EST) -- BRZINA, content to track the 11-1 loose leader at 7F, found two gears in the final quarter mile to remain sharp and win in her second start off the Ness claim. Like her more on the cutback to a short sprint as today’s solo play. [If BRZINA is scratched, use STOP THE CAP (#8), who beat two next-out winners in a repeat victory at one mile on a sloppy track. She was fractious in the gate and no factor last out, but can score again at a big price with ample pace flow in front of her.]
PIM 7th race (3:43 p.m. EST) -- DESTINATION looks best on paper but, like most of her rivals, is unproven on turf. QUALITY WEEKEND earned the top grass speed figure in the field when she debuted late in her 4-year-old season. PRINCESS LUCIA, the lone first-time starter, is out of the dam Debbie’s Diamond, whose siblings are 13-67 on the lawn. Go seven deep in Leg B. [Add INTEL AGENT (#15) to the ticket if she draws into the race.]
PIM 8th race (4:16 p.m. EST) -- Three lengths separated the 2-3-4 finishers coming out of the same race and COVER THE SPREAD, the 5-2 second favorite off a nine-month layoff that day, wasn’t among them. Throw in the new shooters who can win today’s featured allowance and it translates to an ‘ALL’ punch in the Pick 4.
PIM 9th race (4:49 p.m. EST) -- OH MRS. MAISEL’S seasonal debut at one mile was better than it appears. She was pressed on the lead after a half mile and tired in a higher-tagged claiming race. The pace-pressing winner, Graceful Rose (16/2-3-4, $122k), came back to finish second at Aqueduct in a $50,000 starter allowance. Charles Town invader OREO ANGEL is a longshot to consider if the addition of blinkers helps her poor starting habits in her first start for a claiming tag.
Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
PIM 6th Race: 1
PIM 7th Race: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, (AE-15)
PIM 8th Race: ALL
PIM 9th Race: 4, 7
Cost for 50-cent ticket: $49
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Churchill Downs - Race #2
Churchill Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes #10 Baytown Cleopatra She showed little in the debut run but gets a top rider in the irons for the second start. The runner-up from her last took a stakes race here. #9 Citizen Judy She can move forward with the first race under her belt, especially if she's a touch more professional late. In the mix. #1 Tiffany Get a look at her and the other firsters on the track, but she might be ready to make an impact at first asking. Rail draw is maybe tricky. Race Summary Baytown Cleopatra took a little cash in the first start but never got involved in a run with a little bit of trouble. Gaffialione signs on today while coming out of a good race.
Churchill Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes #5 Midnight Raid He's got some honest recent finishing form and finds a small field with a couple decent pace players in it. Might get a good run of things. #6 Hurry Hurry He finished up well going long at Turfway last out, and he's another who would benefit if a couple forward players set a fair tempo. More tactical trip is likely today, too. #3 Next Level His running style is all over the place, but he's getting some solid class relief out of the 132/1 try in the Louisiana Derby last time out. Could see him settling into a decent spot behind the speedier players. Race Summary Midnight Raid should get a dreamy run of the race while tracking the splits, and she earned the step up with a couple of sharp recent tries.
Picks Notes #1 Aleman Think you can go a lot of different ways in this race, and this guy probably gets lost on the board with some form that might trend a little cheaper than some of the others. That said, he might be able to get a favorable trip tucked in behind the speed if they want to avoid the early battle. #7 Pure Panic He has traded decisions with some of these over the last year, so he's proven himself competitive at this kind of level and should be in another perfect pressing spot. #11 Solidify There are some runs on his page that stack up well enough, and the price might be right off a couple dull runs. Settles and shares with one run? Race Summary Aleman has some price appeal while making his dirt debut, as I think his style should suit this spot well with some turnback route pace.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Pimlico - Race #1
Pimlico - Race #2
Picks Notes #9 SINCERITO (8-1) Has the ingredients to produce upset run, price attached on class drop. #4 DUCKPINS (6-1) Rallied in traffic in crowded field the last time he raced on turf in November. #1 PARK PLACE (2-1) Bid to brief lead at 5-1/2F and finished second in lone grass try in the fall. Race Summary SINCERITO rallied past the favorite to win in his debut at 23-1, pressed the 4-to-5 favorite before fading at 7F, then met odds-on repeater Force of Justice (4-12, $122k) in his most recent start. He switches surfaces for a good turf barn and offers value for a win and place bet.
Pimlico - Race #4
Picks Notes #6 DUELA DENT (5-2) Dueled and earned top speed fig off claim, had excuse as follow-up fave. #3 ENKINDLE (5-1) Good gallop out after useful comeback try off a year layoff, use in gimmicks. #4 HOT DANCE (7-5) Second in last two sprints on a fast track, returns to level of claim. Race Summary DUELA DENT dueled inside of the favorite before first-time starter Stickwiththecolors – a next-out allowance runner-up -- and today’s morning-line favorite, HOT DANCE, passed by. She was ‘fractious’ in a follow-up try at this level as the odds-on favorite but can make amends at a better price. Bet to win and place.
Picks Notes #1 RAINY SKIES (7-2) Responded to strong urging to win going away at 6F, goes long for first time. #4 WALDRIP (7-5) Chased fast pace and sharp, next out winner at Oaklawn, exited key race prior. #6 IN THE DANCE (5-2) Rallied for a win, two seconds and a third in last six starts, need pace help. Race Summary RAINY SKIES, hard ridden throughout, blew past the tiring 5-to-2 leader to complete a winning form reversal off the claim. He hails from a 34 percent ‘repeat’ and 15 percent ‘sprint-to-route’ barn. His dam, Sunny Skies, was Grade 2-placed going a route of ground. Bet to win and place and play 1-4 and 1-6 exactas.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Pimlico
PURCHASE
Pimlico - Race 2 Maiden Claiming $30,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 70 • Purse: $36,000 • Post: 12:56 (PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000, IF FOR $24,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. DUELA DENT is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DUELA DENT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surf ace. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. HOT DANCE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Eq uibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DUELA DENT HOT DANCE
Unknown Running Style: MINIME (10/1) [Jockey: Torrealba Jg - Trainer: Keefe Timothy L], SWEET HONEY BEE (15/1) [Jockey: Briceno Jean Gregor - Trainer: Ambrogi Leo J], MUSIC ON THE ROCKS (10/1) [Jockey: Boyce Forest - Trainer: Owings Brett].
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Class
Speed
FigureDUELA DENT Front-runner HOT DANCE Trailer JOB'S NOT FINISHED Trailer ENKINDLE Alternator/Trailer GLAMOROUS Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington ParkPURCHASE
Remington Park - Race 10 Trial • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 74 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 10:03 QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHT 124 LBS.
Horse
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Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * ELEGANT TRAIN B: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. WR PATRON: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designat ion. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CANDY FLOOD: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. MONDAYS CARTEL: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quart er Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. ELEGANT TRAIN B WR PATRON CANDY FLOOD MONDAYS CARTEL
Unknown Running Style: JB GENERATION (10/1) [Jockey: Raudales Rolando - Trainer: Valdivia Guillermo].
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Class
Speed
FigureWR PATRON Fast ELEGANT TRAIN B Fast MONDAYS CARTEL Fast DACOR Average CANDY FLOOD Fast SPICE V Fast LOVEPOTIONUMBER 9 Slow
Golden Gate Fields - Race #6 - Post: 4:21pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $22,500 Class Rating: 77
Rating:
#6 ANOTHER SUMMER (ML=2/1)
ANOTHER SUMMER - This rider and trainer are reliable together. Winning percent when teamed up is difficult to beat. In the last race on the grass, this horse was solid. Anything close in today's race, and this one should win.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 NAKOTA (IRE) (ML=3/1), #1 SPARKLE SWEETLY (ML=4/1), #4 FIREWORK (ML=5/1),
NAKOTA (IRE) - Hard to take this racer at the price after the finish (fifth) in the last race. SPARKLE SWEETLY - This filly recorded a rating in her last race which likely isn't good enough in today's race. FIREWORK - Hard to bet on any animal to turn things around if there is no wager value to taking the shot. This filly recorded a speed fig in her last race which probably isn't good enough in today's event.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - ANOTHER SUMMER - Top speed rating in route events on the grass make this thoroughbred a tough competitor against these ponies.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Play #6 ANOTHER SUMMER to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more EXACTA WAGERS: Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:None
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - SO - 8.3f on the Turf. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 69
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $16,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 6 MORNING MARCH 6/1
# 1 GETTIN'DOWNONIT 7/2
# 9 AWESOME STRIKE 9/2
MORNING MARCH has a quite good shot to take this race. Has quite good Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in this race. Could beat this group of horses given the 86 Equibase Speed Figure earned in his last outing. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of horses - worth a look. GETTIN'DOWNONIT - Strong average Equibase Speed Figures in turf route races make this equine a solid contender. Is a solid contender - given the 88 Equibase Speed Figure from his most recent race. AWESOME STRIKE - Is hard not to look at based on Equibase Speed Figs which have been decent - 65 avg - of late.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Century Mile
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12500 Class Rating: 79
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR ALBERTA BREDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY). ALBERTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 7 WRONG SPOT 6/1
# 2 MENDELJOHN (IRE) 5/2
# 3 LIL ZAPPER 3/1
WRONG SPOT has a quite good shot to take this race. Demonstrates the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 76 speed fig which is one of the strongest in this field. Posted a sound speed rating in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the strongest class figures of this group. MENDELJOHN (IRE) - Must be given consideration here on the basis of the numbers in the speed department alone. Must be given a shot in this contest if only for the respectable speed figure put up in the last contest. LIL ZAPPER - He looks solid in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. Ran a solid last race.
Gulfstream Park - Race #1 - Post: 1:10pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 77
Rating:
#3 FLATTER ME (ML=5/2)
FLATTER ME - A repeat of that most recent race on April 20th where he notched a fig of 80 looks high enough to score in this event. The outside draw didn't help this horse's chances last time out at Gulfstream Park. Today's inside post position should be just fine. Compare today's class (77) with last 3 speeds (80, 77, 80). All three speed figures are good enough to win.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 NORFIE (ML=7/5), #2 MAJOR KING (ML=8/5), #4 EXALTED CHARM (ML=8/1),
NORFIE - Not a perfect 'fit' in this clash. MAJOR KING - Speed figs tell a tale of deteriorating form. Don't feel this racer will make an impact in today's race. That last speed figure was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's class rating. EXALTED CHARM - This racer has not tallied a win here today in 13 starts. Little chance he wins today. Hasn't been close at all recently. Won't be easy for this horse to beat this group off of that last fig. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued contestants list.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #3 FLATTER ME on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: 3 with [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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