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Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis
May 13, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
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Yonkers Raceway has an 11-race card to begin the week. The 0.50 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool rolls in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 8, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)
1-Leonida A (3-1)-This warrior has lost something off his fast ball. But this race is probably his best chance to pick up a win this year if ready to battle, has been idle since 4-22. Drawing the rail should help and could be on the point or in the pocket.
2-None Bettor A (3-1)-Cashed a 3rd place check in his 1st start since 9-9 and that was against Invitational company. Can be a threat if dialed on high. Joe B should be on the point or in the 2 hole right next to the one above.
Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)
3-Night Hawk (3-1)-Hasn’t landed on the point in the last 3 starts and that trend could change tonight. George Brennan should have enough gate speed to get on the engines or to get a cozy trip right behind the leader. Leaving looks like the best option and might offer some value.
5-It’s A Me Mario (7/5)-Mario’s 5 race win streak was snapped last week after leaving from post 7. Closed in a hurry and came from a way back to finish 2nd. Jason Bartlett should work a smooth trip with this post draw and starting a new win streak isn’t out of the question.
Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)
5-Nowhere Creek A (5/2)-Comes off a handy win, there isn't a lot of gate speed inside and should get another close-up seat. Has been camera shy this year (16-1-1-2) but meets another beatable field.
6-Dance On The Beach (7/2)-Got the top and faded down the lane in last. Beaten 3/5 chalk has been consistent for a few months. Best to respect, and could make amends. Likes to race on the point and there shouldn't be an issue getting that trip.
Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)
2-Semi Tough (2-1)-This classy veteran can still dial it up for a picture if at the right level. Drops and this smells like a winning situation.
4-Sling Shock (6-1)-Will need to come with its best effort at this class to win and is in fine form. Stratton steers for the 3rd straight and he has handled him well. Could stalk and catch the leaders at a healthy price.
$1.00 Late Pick 4
1,2/3,5/5,6/2,4
Total Bet=$16
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Thistledown - Race #5
Thistledown - Race #6
Picks Notes #4 Serger She has nearly 10 lengths to turn on the one just inside her, but that last one was not representative, and she should be in line to bounce back from another good spying spot. #3 Sweet Unique No doubt she’s the one to beat, looking for a third win in a row. Her two local starts were both super sharp, so the move from Mahoning isn’t a big worry. #2 Tattered Heart She’s probably a touch better fit with this kind than her last one suggests, and she can land a slice of this if she can get back to the previous runs. Race Summary Serger might be mildly playable here with the presence of Sweet Unique and #6 H. T. Xena – not sure what to do with her with declining Oaklawn form.
Thistledown - Race #7
Picks Notes #8 Ollie’s Folly Decent lean here with some pace from the outside, and I think he’s coming out of a couple pretty solid races for the level in the last two tries. #3 D J’s First Step He finished just behind the top choice when they met, but this presumably has some upside while making just his second career start, and his positional pace should keep him in a good spot again. Wouldn’t argue with anyone landing here. #4 Weekend Retreat His better stuff might do the job, but I’m not sure the price is going to reflect his inconsistent form all that well. Capable, but not for me. Race Summary Ollie’s Folly is fast enough to get in the mix early from the high draw, and I think this is a softer spot than he has seen in those last two races.
Picks Notes #9 Key to Success Mild worry that she’s going to be overbet off the Oaklawn form, but I think her typical effort is probably good enough to handle these. #7 Dance My Way She’s another one coming in from Oaklawn, but she’s rising up after graduating in a $12,500 claimer, so she’s a bit of a question on class, even while shifting to face the locals. #6 Stratogale She aired off the break last out to graduate by more than seven, and she wouldn’t be the biggest surprise here if she still has another move forward in her while going second off the break and making just her third career start. Race Summary Key to Success and Dance My Way both coming from Oaklawn while moving in different directions on class, but Key to Success might have a strong enough baseline to handle these.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Louisiana Downs - Race #1
Louisiana Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes #4 CALABRIAN QUEEN (6-1) Kept quality company since maiden romp at this distance. #1 MISS CHARGE IT (2-1) Played bridesmaid role in 5 of her last 7 starts, draws rail. #2 DARE ME (5-2) Asmussen shipper been burning money, must improve, projects good trip. Race Summary CALABRIAN QUEEN is too good to pass up at 6-1 on the morning line. She has speed, broke her maiden with ease for $10k and met the likes of Jumpin Judy (7-15, $180k) in stakes company and three-peat winner Six String (3-4, $81k) in an allowance sprint. Bet to win and place.
Louisiana Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes #4 MEGANS MILLIONS (5-2) Drops to proper level, third start of cycle, turf the question. #3 RIPTIDE ROSE (10-1) Proven turf route form against mostly stretch-out dirt sprinters. (3-14, $74k). #5 EMILYHASHERTURN (12-1) Buried weak field at FG; dam broke her maiden on Monmouth lawn. Race Summary MEGANS MILLIONS, who spent most of her 3-year-old season in allowance company, gets needed class relief for her third start this year. She rallied 4-wide to finish second two back behind a 61-1 winner. Her dam, Curlin Copy, was an allowance winner around these parts, though not on turf. Bet to win and place and play a 3-4-5 exacta box.
Picks Notes #1 COMMUNICATIONISKEY (7-2) Failed to sustain wide bid at 6F, won twice at 6-1/2F, gets new rider. #2 GYPSYROSELEE (5-2) Beaten favorite in three straight, first start since claim three months ago. #8 I’M ALL MIXED UP (9-2 Earned top speed figure in defeat, back in with Louisiana breds. Race Summary COMMUNICATIONISKEY, a much-improved third while chasing the 3-to-2 winner 4-wide, lacked late kick. She won twice at 6-1/2F, however, and should be in contending position again from the rail. Bet to win and place.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park
PURCHASE
Mountaineer Park - Race 4 SO $6,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $14,200 • Post: 8:15P FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $4,000 OR LESS IN 2023-2024 OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $6,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES) (PREFERENCE TO HIGHEST EARNINGS IN 2023 - 2024).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SMASH is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SMASH: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Eq uibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ROSE'S PEPINO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SMASH ROSE'S PEPINO
Line
Class
Speed
FigureSMASH Front-runner RRACE DAY WARRIOR Stalker SUPPLY CHAIN Alternator/Stalker SIGNOFTHECROSS Trailer ROSE'S PEPINO Trailer STRIKE THE TOP Alternator/Non-contender PERFETTO Alternator/Non-contender LAUTREC Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for ThistledownPURCHASE
Thistledown - Race 6 Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 52 • Purse: $33,900 • Post: 3:20P FOR ACCREDITED OHIO FOALS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. OLLIE'S FOLLY is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * OLLIE'S FOLLY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. CINSAULT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DREAMINGABOUTTIME: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. D J'S FIRST STEP: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. WEEKEND RETREAT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. OLLIE'S FOLLY DREAMINGABOUTTIME CINSAULT D J'S FIRST STEP WEEKEND RETREAT
Unknown Running Style: LUCY'S FIRST SONG (10/1) [Jockey: Weatherly Bailey - Trainer: Langley Joshua].
Line
Class
Speed
FigureOLLIE'S FOLLY Front-runner D J'S FIRST STEP Stalker DREAMINGABOUTTIME Alternator/Stalker CINSAULT Trailer WEEKEND RETREAT Alternator/Trailer GOTTOMAKEITHAPPEN Alternator/Non-contender WHY KENNY WHY Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17800 Class Rating: 64
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $11,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $9,000 2 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 3 BUSTINROXY 7/5
# 4 SWEET SUGAR BABY 3/1
# 2 AMORE FIRE 7/2
My pick in this competition is BUSTINROXY. Looks very strong against this field and will probably be one of the leaders. Should definitely be carefully examined in this competition if only for the very good speed rating garnered in the last contest. Is a strong contender based on figs earned recently under today's conditions. AMORE FIRE - Looks very strong for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figures in dirt sprint races lately. Posted a solid speed figure last time out.
Parx Racing - Race #4 - Post: 2:01pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 73
Rating:
#7 FAST MULE (ML=3/1)
#5 SIRENETTA (ML=6/1)
#2 DIXIE GROOVE (ML=2/1)
FAST MULE - Don't often see a positive ROI like +37. This jock/handler duo has done well together over the last twelve months. The recent speed fig of 64 is the highest last race speed fig in the bunch. SIRENETTA - This filly is in good physical condition. Finished third on April 30th. DIXIE GROOVE - Have to make this filly a contender; she comes off a good race on April 23rd.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 PHANCY PHILLY (ML=4/1), #1 LULI'S DANCER (ML=6/1), #3 VANISHING FAITH (ML=8/1),
PHANCY PHILLY - This horse likes to finish in the money, but doesn't usually win. Don't put in the top spot. This steed hasn't been close at the finish line recently. LULI'S DANCER - You always think this horse has a shot to cross the finish line in first, but she comes up short most every time. VANISHING FAITH - This mare hasn't been showing me anything in the last couple of outings. This horse likes to finish in the money, but doesn't usually win. Don't put in the top spot.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #7 FAST MULE to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [2,5,7] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 58
FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 6 PAULA M 5/2
# 7 MICHAEL'S DREAMS 8/1
# 5 CHEEKY KISS 12/1
I've got to go with PAULA M. Risk takers get an edge when playing this handler in a dirt sprint race. Williams has her trained soundly to break promptly out of the gate. Garnered a quite good speed rating last time out. MICHAEL'S DREAMS - Gonzalez has been hot the last month, winning at a nifty 16 percent clip. Earned a sound speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this contest. CHEEKY KISS - Her 51 average has this filly with among the most favorable Equibase Speed Figs in this contest. Respectable try today with second time Lasix.
Louisiana Downs - Race #1 - Post: 4:05pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 78
Rating:
#4 CALABRIAN QUEEN (ML=6/1)
#2 DARE ME (ML=5/2)
CALABRIAN QUEEN - I like this entrant. Should be familiar with this class level since she ran against the same type last time out at Delta Downs. Just missed hitting the board on Feb 17th at Delta Downs. With decent odds in this race, she has my interest. She has the uppermost earnings per race. Check out this horse. You have to really like that most recent race speed fig, 68, which is the best latest race speed rating of this field. DARE ME - Asmussen comes to saddle up after getting to know the mare in the last race. Mare is a few starts into a come back here. Should give a big race today.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MISS CHARGE IT (ML=2/1), #5 TENSAS CLEAR (ML=7/2), #6 CLASSY EDGE (ML=8/1),
MISS CHARGE IT - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in short distance contests in order to back her. TENSAS CLEAR - Not likely that the speed figure she earned on Apr 30th will be good enough in this affair. CLASSY EDGE - This racer just hasn't looked sharp of late. This filly registered a speed rating in her last race which probably isn't good enough in today's race.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - CALABRIAN QUEEN - A pace study shows this animal should have the pace to wire this field.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #4 CALABRIAN QUEEN is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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