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Scott Shapiro: Black-Eyed Susan / Preakness Doubles
May 15, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
I absolutely adore horizontal wagers, especially on big days when the options in leveraging your strongest opinions are seemingly unlimited. However, sometimes a good old-fashioned Daily Double is the best decision. I definitely will be diving into the 12% takeout Two-Day Pick 5’s this weekend, but also want to press up on my opinions in the two featured races with the Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness Daily Double.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Friday, Race 13: The Black-Eyed Susan
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4 Call Another Play
Backups: 5 Gun Song
Forecast: This year’s Black-Eyed Susan (G2) appears wide-open with Southern California import #7 Corposo listed as the 5-2 choice. The Vino Rosso filly has certainly taken a step forward since stretching out to two turns, but is a pass for me at anything close to the 5-2-morning line. The Peter Eurton trainee got a perfect trip off of odds-on Bonaqua in her lone victory back in March and was able to prevail by a nose. The race came back fast, but it is important to note that Bonaqua has lost at 6-5 or less in three consecutive starts. Corposo was in chase mode in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2), so not going to hold that well-beaten third against her too much, but she nonetheless feels like a vulnerable favorite in the “Run for the Black-Eyed Susans.”
#3 Lemon Muffin and #8 Recharge appear the likeliest alternatives, but I am against them as well. Lemon Muffin put in some solid efforts this winter in Arkansas, but her last couple have been underwhelming. Sure, she was beaten out of the gate and never truly comfortable in the Kentucky Oaks, but she was badly outclassed as well. I expect the Lukas filly to be an underlay. Recharge has some upside entering Friday 3 for 4, but she has encountered soft groups in the Southwest before battling early and tiring late in the Fantasy (G2) in late March.
#5 Gun Song is intriguing for Mark Hennig. The Gun Runner filly was beaten out of the gate and in a bit tight early in her stalk & fade effort in the Gulfstream Park Oaks in late March. She needs to prove she can handle two-turns still, but she could get a favorable trip under Hall of Famer John Velazquez. #4 Call Another Play intrigues most, especially given likely price. The Michael Trombetta filly has moved forward at a nice pace since adding blinkers last December and should get a good setup for her off the pace style. Anything close to 8-1 is more than fair!
Saturday, Race 13: The Preakness Stakes
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4 Muth; 7 Just Steel
Backups: 5 Mystik Dan; 3 Catching Freedom
Forecast: The second leg of the Triple Crown came together nicely with both Kentucky Derby winner #5 Mystik Dan and fourth place finisher #3 Catching Freedom both making the decision to run prior to Monday’s draw. They obviously have significant chances, but this race goes through #4 Muth. The pricey Good Magic colt was forced to skip the Derby, but passed both of his early 3YO tests with flying colors, including a two-length score in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Look for Juan Hernandez to take this one to the front and never look back. For those looking for value to include, #7 Just Steel is worth consideration. The Justify colt surprisingly got cooked up in the early Derby pace, but gets a rider change to Joel Rosario. Expect the veteran rider to be less aggressive early on a horse that has had excuses in his only two off the board finishes since October and ran a good second to Muth in Hot Springs.
Mystik Dan took advantage of his ground saving trip in the Derby and may get discounted to an extent by the public, but he should be ready for another big effort despite the short rest. The issue is he may be chasing a moderate pace. Catching Freedom was a great addition to the Preakness and must be doing well, but he could be pace compromised in his attempt to earn a coveted Grade 1 victory.
Good luck!
Scott Shapiro: Horseshoe Indy Wednesday Stakes Analysis
May 14, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
The Preakness Stakes and the tremendous two days of racing at Pimlico are this week’s headliners, but do not snooze on Horseshoe Indianapolis’ Wednesday afternoon card. Four stakes races, including the $150,000 Caesars Handicap, make it a must play for horseplayers looking to get warmed up for Black-Eyed Susan Day in Baltimore.
The Caesars Handicap goes as Race 8 on the 11-race card (10&11 are QH) in Shelbyville with a pair of spot plays leading up to the featured event.
Undercard Spot Plays:
Race 5: #9 Contemplation (8-1 ML) has been freshened up after a pair of efforts to kick off his career at Turfway Park for Michael Stidham. Toss his debut where he broke a half step slow from the inside, rushed up, and then lost momentum costing him all chance. He ran better in his follow up start going two turns with blinkers, but I like the cutback to a sprint here. He gets the weight break with bug boy Joseph Bealmear taking the call and should get a great trip from the outside.
Race 7: The Horseshoe Indianapolis S. drew a full field of 3YO fillies led by 5-2-morning line choice, #11 Pounce. The Resolute Racing filly bypassed the Edgewood Stakes (G2) on Kentucky Oaks Day to run in a softer spot after being caught wide throughout in the Appalachian (G2) at Keeneland on April 6th. She is the deserving top choice, but the price on #6 Gavea is llkely to be too much to pass up. The Gleneagles filly ran huge in her Stateside debut, but then put in an absolute dud in her stakes try in New York. Trainer Al Stall, Jr. has given the German-bred filly plenty of time to regroup. Hopefully, we will see the same gal we saw at Churchill Downs last September.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 8: Caesars Handicap:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4
Backups: 7
Forecast:
The Caesars was won last year by Steve Asmussen conditioned Gigante. The Not This Time colt went on to win the Secretariat (G2) at Colonial Downs and earn over $900K as a three-year-old. I doubt this group has a runner of that quality, but it is a competitive bunch nonetheless led by 5-2-morning line favorite #7 Twirling Point. The Jonathan Thomas trainee has talent, but has been his own worst enemy getting off to slow starts in 3 of his first 6 races. If he breaks well, he should be able to relax just off the pace from his outside draw and out finish this bunch. That said, he is going to be a relatively short price and there is not only risk of another slow start, but also could that he could get caught wide in an early battle.
#2 First World War, #6 Oscar’s World and #8 Depiction all exit the Transylvania (G3) run at Keeneland in early April. It was an oddly run race, but as a whole I was underwhelmed. I will let this trio beat me as well as #1 Camaro Z and #9 Aspenite who both should be forward, but are unlikely to have things easy on the front end given the presence of #3 Molly’s Town. The Indiana-bred has shown strong speed sprinting on the dirt and on paper appears highly likely to set the pace under veteran Fernando De La Cruz
This year’s Caesars feels like a great chance to take a shot given the likely contentious first-half mile and logicals that are far from unbeatable, so let’s take a swing with #4 Debt Paid. Michelle Lovell claimed this colt for $50K last fall at Keeneland and has won 2 of 5 with the son of Collected since. Both wins have come over the grass, including a career best performance when caught wide throughout yet trying hard to the wire in his win in New Orleans in late March. Look for Jaime Torres to save ground early and come with a big run late at a nice price.
Good luck!
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Thistledown - Race #4
Thistledown - Race #7
Picks Notes #6 Kinderhook Think his overall form is better than it looks with a couple stakes tries on the page and a 2-for-3 sprint record otherwise. He draws well to force the issue from the outside in a race without a ton of serious pace. #3 Scrimper He handed the top choice his only loss outside of stakes company, and this guy has never lost when racing outside of those tougher spots. Dangerous and in the frame from the start. #5 Cavaletto He has some versatility in his running style that should allow him to keep in touch with the leaders today, and he might have a touch more finishing punch than the top pair. Not impossible. Race Summary Kinderhook has to hang with Scrimper today, but he may offer a reasonable enough price to give him a shot from a good attack draw.
Thistledown - Race #8
Picks Notes #5 Mo Dont No He drops out of stakes company off the bench and has a little finishing form that might play well if he can launch the last run behind some more tactical types. #10 Empire’s Fire I could see him getting hung out wide on the turn with that spying pace behind the speedier players, but I also love to see that reliable pace-tracking form more than just about anything else on a horse’s page. Tough call, but he’s in the mix. #2 Dark Vader He’s another who wouldn’t be any surprise in a fun race, as he can be placed pretty much anywhere, but I also wouldn’t be shocked to see him find one or two of these too good today. Race Summary You could probably talk me into most of these in an unconditioned Ohio allowance, but I’m hoping Mo Dont No gets the last laugh off the layoff. #1 Gone in a Flash for a price piece late?
Picks Notes #5 Nebulosa He earned the price hike today with that good comeback win last time out, and I wonder if he might be able to control the tempo again while facing a group without a lot of serious early burn. He might be a little cheap, but the price could be OK. #3 Sammy and Shorty His reliable form and tactical pace make him the one to beat, but he almost always gets hammered at the windows, so you’re probably stuck taking another modest price. #1 Marvin’s Express He just finished ahead of some of these last out, and he might be able to save some ground and launch another late rally for a piece today. Race Summary Nebulosa should be committed enough to find the front again today, and I think he could take them a long way if he doesn’t take too much early heat.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Delaware Park - Race #1
Delaware Park - Race #2
Picks Notes #6 WINN DIXIE RONNIE (3-1) Set fast, pressured pace, held second in long sprint. #4 CYNERGY’S ELECTRA (8- Six-figure earner runs for cheapest tag yet, looks best on paper. #3 KAYA’S HALO (2-1) Good first gear, sheds 8 pounds for first start locally. Race Summary Florida invader WINN DIXIE RONNIE dueled on the inside through the turn and held off the favorite to finish second at 7F. She hails from a high-percentage barn with class droppers but meets a few others with that profile today. Bet to win and place and play a 4-6 exacta box.
Delaware Park - Race #3
Picks Notes #7 A LOTTA MOXIE (4-1) Improved as 2yo, shortens up in seasonal debut for new connections. #2 BYTHENUMBERS (3-2) Wore blinkers, burned money as second-out favorite at one mile. #5 NAY SLAYER (9-5) Third in 4-horse field at Aqueduct, gets in light, will be underlay. Race Summary A LOTTA MOXIE chased the 3-to-5 favorite and held second when last seen in a two-turn sprint at Charles Town in November. She returns in a new barn but has kept a busy work tab leading up. Bet to win and place and play 7-2 and 7-5 exactas.
Picks Notes #1 PISTOL OR SHOTGUN (8-1) Bumpy break, wide stretch run, gets class relief, price stab with Cedeno. #3 WOW WISH (2-1) Outkicked by 21-1 winner at Tampa, switches barns again. #4 TAPORICAL (6-1) Even effort off 2-1/2-month layoff, runs well for Hiraldo. Race Summary PISTOL OR SHOTGUN, bothered by an inner rival at the break, tracked a 3-way duel in mid-pack, appeared to be losing contact with the leaders on the turn, but swung widest in the stretch and finished well enough to earn a playback at a good price. Bet to win and place.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs
PURCHASE
Louisiana Downs - Race 4 Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 5:20P FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS).
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Class. FRENCH FRANC (FR) is the Dominant Class of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FRENCH FRANC (FR): Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highes t average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FRENCH FRANC (FR)
Line
Class
Speed
FigureLIKE FINE WINE Stalker ROLL GYPSY ROLL Alternator/Stalker LAYLA'S SONG Alternator/Stalker XTRA SPICY Alternator/Stalker FRENCH FRANC (FR) Trailer C C'S COWGIRL Trailer MY MY Trailer SHE'S STORMING Alternator/Trailer SWIZZLECITY Alternator/Non-contender SHUTUP PLEASE Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra ParkPURCHASE
Belterra Park - Race 4 Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 41 • Purse: $24,200 • Post: 1:45P FOR ACCREDITED OHIO BRED MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SCHOOL'S OUT is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SCHOOL'S OUT: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. H orse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SCHOOL'S OUT
Line
Class
Speed
FigureSCHOOL'S OUT Front-runner CARSON N SPENCE Alternator/Stalker MY TICKET Alternator/Trailer DISCO MUSIC Alternator/Non-contender PLAYFULASITGETS Alternator/Non-contender CATCHING MY WIND Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 3 - Allowance - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 86
FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 1 GOSPEL CHARITY 8/5
# 2 BIG UN 9/5
# 4 TALKIN CADEE 2/1
GOSPEL CHARITY is my choice. She has been travelling admirably lately while recording sharp Equibase Speed Figures. Has competitive early speed and should fare admirably against this group. Garnered a reliable Equibase speed fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. BIG UN - With a sound 72 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's competition. Should come out strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved swiftly to the lead recently. TALKIN CADEE - She has been running admirably lately while recording strong Speed Figures. Has to be given a shot for this race if only for the solid speed rating earned in the last contest.
Delaware Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:00pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 79
Rating:
#4 ITHINKILOVEYOU (ML=6/1)
#2 TIRUPATI (ML=3/2)
#1 NOTICE ME TOO (ML=3/1)
ITHINKILOVEYOU - When this jock and handler team up you have to take a look. Rodriguez and Lynch have been wonderful together. With no recent PP lines, one of the variables I look at are trainer stats, and Lynch has a +166 pct ROI clip with first-time-starters. Going on Lasix for the 1st time. While a conventional handicapping angle, it's still quite useful for handicapping purposes. TIRUPATI - Strong return on investment for this jock and handler duo. Was in a Maiden Special race at Keeneland in the last race. That event had a class rating of 89 and she is moving down in today's race. A certain win candidate. NOTICE ME TOO - I think the shorter trip will help this filly stay the trip. The last time I saw this horse was at Fair Grounds. Finished fifth, but had a decent chunk of the win pool. Could be dangerous in this event. You have to like that most recent race speed figure, 64, which is the best latest race fig of this field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 FIRSTLADY ROSALYNN (ML=2/1),
FIRSTLADY ROSALYNN - This filly in all probability won't be very close at the finish line.
GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - NOTICE ME TOO - My pp database shows that fillies often run much better second time on Lasix. That's the case right here, so I think she should run well today.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Putting our cash on #4 ITHINKILOVEYOU to win. Have to have odds of at least 2/1 or better though EXACTA WAGERS: 4 with [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12200 Class Rating: 64
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 15 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 1 CITRINA 9/2
# 6 THEODOROPOULOS 5/2
# 4 BRIGHT MOON 9/5
CITRINA looks very good to best this field. Reason to like this filly as she has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. This filly has a good win percentage in dirt sprint races. Like the finishes in the last couple of contests. THEODOROPOULOS - Has put up reliable speed figs in dirt sprint races in the past. Could provide positive dividends based on formidable recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 56. BRIGHT MOON - Is worth looking at and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (51 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. Has strong Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet for this event.
Penn National - Race #6 - Post: 8:10pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 87
Rating:
#5 CARGO SHIP (ML=4/1)
#2 REDEEM EDDIE (ML=6/1)
CARGO SHIP - A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a good race is a good sign. He must like the track here. Shipped in to take the top prize on May 3rd and he looks tough once again. You'll be making money left and right by turning your betting money onto this rider/handler combination. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. REDEEM EDDIE - Lucas brings him right back. I propose you stick with this strong gelding.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 LIVING WATER (ML=5/2), #6 PICTOR (ML=3/1), #3 ROCKIN THE PALACE (ML=7/2),
LIVING WATER - The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a likely underlay. PICTOR - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last two races. Generally I need a sprinter to have some success lately in sprint events in order to bet on him. ROCKIN THE PALACE - Didn't show much run last out. Probably won't make a winning move today.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Put your money on #5 CARGO SHIP on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip
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