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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Pimlico - 5/17/24
May 17, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Pimlico “What You Need to Know
Friday, May 17, 2024
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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RACE 1: Post: 11:30 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Castle Island
Backups/savers: 1-Under the Radar; 7-Irish Warlock.
Forecast: Castle Island missed as the 9/5 favorite when second in a similar two-turn allowance event last month but was nearly four lengths clear of the rest while earning a career top speed figure. He’s got further improvement in him for high percentage connections and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. He’s a solid top pick at 2-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:01 ET Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7-Tidewater.
Backups/savers: 12-Fun Notion; 10-One Whirlwind Ride.
Forecast: Tidewater was below his top form when a non-threatening fourth as the favorite in a similar grass dash at Laurel last month but it’s possible he needed the race in his first outing since early December. He’s a perfect one-for-one over the local lawn and should produce a forward move and be heard from late. In a race in which the usual suspects take turns, rolling exotic players can take a stand and use him as a single, spread deeply, or simply sit it out.
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RACE 3: Post: 12:32 ET Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9-Car Ride; 5-Nielson; 8-Kake’s Arrow
Backups/savers: 2-Irish Hero.
Forecast: Car Ride lacks tactical speed but in two stats has shown he can produce a decent late kick, and in a race begging to be won from behind the son of Candy Ride looks well-spotted to graduate. Nielson was a washout in California for B. Baffert but will find this bunch considerably easier. If he can run at all, the son of Curlin should be able to show it against this modest bunch. Kake’s Arrow is a fit on figures with room to improve. He’ll be forwardly placed and may be first over if and when the faint-hearted Irish Hero goes into his fading act.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:02 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Swill; 3-Childers.
Backups/savers: 5-Dr. Oseran.
Forecast: Swill is a first-off-the-claim play for J. Ness (33%) and almost certainly will produce a forward move for his new connections. He’s fast on figures, is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail and is making his first start on grass (should like it). The son of Munnings seems pretty solid. Childers has plenty of early speed when he’s permitted to use it but actually might be most comfortable when held up a bit in the early stages. He was a solid runner-up in a similar grass dash at Laurel Park last month in an effort that produced a career top speed figure.
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RACE 5: Post: 1:33 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Point Dume; 10-Golden Candy.
Backups/savers: none.,
Forecast: Point Dume is a first-time gelding for a high percentage outfit, turns back to a sprint and makes a significant drop in class. The son of Into Mischief earned a career top speed figure in his most recent sprint three runs back in a performance that is good enough to beat this field. Golden Candy, a pro’s pro, returns to his win (and claim) level and always has been thoroughly genuine and consistent (11 wins, 12 seconds, in 39 career starts). He's a perfect one-for-one over the Pimlico main track and is drawn comfortably outside, where his second flight, stalking style can be most effective.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:04 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 10-Cinder Block; 14-Mr. Flowers.
Backups/savers: 1-Forceful; 2-Cobblestone Bridge.
Forecast: Cinder Block was given a run in his debut when finishing a non-threatening third at Keeneland and today should get serious with that bit of experience behind him. The G. Motion barn has solid stats with the second time starter angle, and with a healthy work tab since raced the son of Blame can be expected to step forward big time. The one to fear most is another second timer, Mr Flowers, who changed hands for $75,000 about a year ago in New York and finally makes it back to the races while being protected in maiden special weight company for trainer H. De Paz. The gelded son of Nyquist was a solid runner-up in his debut while earning a number that makes him a major player, his extreme outside draw notwithstanding,
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RACE 7: Post: 2:34 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Paper Mansion
Backups/savers: 4-Surya.
Forecast: Paper Mansion seeks her seventh consecutive win with solid numbers for the level for her high percentage barn and seems set for another major effort. Effective at any distance or surface but primarily a need-the-lead type, the veteran mare shortens to a mile but catches a field without much early zip, so we’re expecting the J. Ness-trained 5-year-old to continue her winning ways at odds somewhat shorter than her generous morning line of 5/2.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 8-Shotgun Hottie
Backups/savers: 1-Julia Shining; 4-Musical Mischief.
Forecast: Shotgun Hottie exits a series of much tougher graded stakes events and should find this class drop into listed company well to her liking. She projects to enjoy a cozy, stalking trip from her outside draw and then have every chance to regain her winning form with anything close to her best effort. She’ll be the main push in the various rolling exotics and in the win pool, as well.
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RACE 9: Post: 3:36 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: She Feels Pretty
Backups/savers: 4-Waves of Mischief; 2-Royal Wintour.
Forecast: She Feels Pretty makes her sophomore debut in this listed middle distance turf event for fillies and with a Grade-1 win (Natalma S.) and a narrow third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-G1 last fall the daughter of Karakontie should simply outclass this field. The barn has powerful stats with comebackers and the work tab looks sufficient to have her fit and ready, so her 7/5 morning line looks well-deserved.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:07 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: 4-Launch; 1-Mystic Lake
Backups/savers: 3-Youalmosthadme.
Forecast: Launch arrives from South Florida with an excellent winter resume (three wins and a second in four starts including a score in the recent Any Limit S.) and she really won’t need much more to continue her sharp form in this year’s renewal of the Miss Preakness S.-G3. The daughter of Omaha Beach is tough on the lead or from a stalking position, so L. Saez can play the break and choose his strategy. She wasn’t all that much in Ireland last year but clearly has vastly improved. Mystic Lake must leave cleanly from the rail to have her best chance but if she does the daughter of Mo Town will have a reasonable look, especially if she can shake loose early.
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RACE 11: Post: 4:38 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: 1-Queen of the Mud (Ire); 8-All That Magic; 4-Kaufymaker.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Queen of the Mud (Ire) is lightly raced and untested against a seasoned group like this, but she’s pretty fast on figures and has shown the ability to win on the lead or with a second flight, stalking trip. Away since last October, the daughter Irish-bred filly is being ambitiously placed in this year’s renewal of The Very One S. in what we’ll take as a sign of confidence from a trainer who doesn’t make a habit of overmatching his stock. She must be doing extremely well. All That Magic is a genuine and consistent turf sprinter and can be effective on the front end or from a pressing position. She’s won six of 11 career starts and is fast enough on figures to be a major player in this highly contentious affair in her first start since November. The work tab is brief but sharp, so we’ll assume she’s cranked and ready. Kaufymaker is yet another comebacker with strong credentials to win off the bench. The W. Ward-trained mare has run well fresh in the past, is fast enough on figs to win, and sports a work tab that should have her tight enough.
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RACE 12: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: A-
Main ticket: 2-Kingsbarns
Backups/savers: 5-Red Route One.
Forecast: Kingsbarns is perfect in two starts with rising speed figures in 2024 and five-for-seven overall. A convincing winner of the Ben Ali-S.-G3 at Keeneland last month, the son of Uncle Mo appears set to produce another career top performance in this year’s edition of the Pimlico Special over the same mile and three-sixteenths distance that he just won at. The T. Pletcher-trained colt catches a field without much speed, so he projects to be comfortably placed on or near the front end throughout.
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RACE 13: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: 7-Corposo; 5-Gun Song.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: California shipper Corposo finished a distant third in a strong edition of the Santa Anita Oaks-G1 last month and invades Maryland for trainer P. Eurton with an excellent chance to regain her winning form in the Black-Eyed Susan S.-G2 that quite frankly didn’t come up particularly strong. The daughter of. Vino Rosso is bred on both sides to handle this nine furlong trip and in a race that projects to have moderate early splits she should be within striking range throughout, ready to pounce. Gun Song earned a big figure when winning an allowance race impressively two races back but then pressed the pace before fading in the subsequent Gulfstream Park Oaks-G2 in what we’d call a backward move. The daughter of Gun Runner will have every chance to bounce back, and if she does the M. Hennig-trained sophomore will be a strong factor throughout,.
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RACE 14: Post: 6:23 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: 4-Wonderful Justice (GB); 10-The Addison Pour.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Wonderful Justice (GB) is fast on figures, retains F. Prat, and has enough tactical speed to settle in the second flight and then have dead aim when asked for his best at the head of the lane in this second level allowance turf miler for older horses. He’s a four-year-old son of Justify with just seven career starts, so there’s plenty of room for improvement and development for trainer B. Cox. The Addison Pour was somewhat unlucky to have drawn the extreme outside post, but as one who is best described as a devout deep closer the son of Tonalist likely will simply drop back early, lag, and then try to pick up the pieces from the quarter pole home. It won’t be an easy task, but the veteran gelding knows where the wire is and with some help up from could produce a dangerous late kick.
Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 5/17/24
May 17, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know
Friday, May 17, 2024
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Luther Pass; 2-Big Drinker.
Backups/savers: 1-Citadino.
Forecast: Luther Pass got caught in a speed duel and paid the price late when third in a similar maiden $20,000 two-turn affair last month but with a little less pace pressure and drawn outside the other main speed the T. Yakteen-trained gelding should improve enough to earn his diploma. A strong five furlong breeze (1:00.2) since that race should have him right on edge. Big Drinker, a solid runner-up in the same race our top pick exits, likely will improve with patient tactics again and is the one to fear most close home.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3-Big Mama Sue; 1-Miss Ives; 2-Yolo Calls.
Backups/savers: 5-She’s Got a Way.
Forecast: Here’s a tough $40,000 claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares that requires some coverage in rolling exotic play. has been away since November and might be prepping for a stretch out – she’s always been a route-type – but she has a history of firing fresh and this turn back in trip might suit her well. On pure numbers, she’s fast enough to win if cranked up and the work tab looks reasonably strong. Worth noting is that she earned her diploma around one turn a few years back. Miss Ives lands the rail and has no choice but to pop and go. She looks like the quickest of the quick and could take some catching if not policed up front. This will be her first try on grass and if she likes it, look out. Yolo Calls was in too tough in a competitive starter’s allowance last month, but scored over this course and distance two runs back with an okay speed figure that makes her a contender. She employs an effective second flight, stalking style that should provide her a chance to tag the leaders close home.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Sunday Sun
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Sunday Sun has the perquisite two sprint preps on his resume – one last September and the other earlier this month – to stretch out successfully in this maiden claiming main track miler for $50,000 state-bred runners. The son of Yoshida adds blinkers and likely will display more tactical speed than he has so far going short, and if he can secure a decent early position the S. Knapp-trained sophomore should be good enough to handle this task. In a race that offers no viable alternative – Dark Marcus is a 21-race maiden - he’s our top pick by default and looks on paper to be a logical win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7-I’m a Lucky Man; Johnny Drama.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: I’m a Lucky Man is drawn outside of his chief pace rival and most likely will employ stalking tactics. He’s won with that strategy in the past and his recent form facing slightly tougher competition suggests he’s ready to regain his winning form.
Johnny Drama weakened late to finish third in a similar restricted (nw-3) $30,000 claiming turf sprint after establishing a clear early lead last month in a race that earned a solid speed figure. He’ll face more heat today but in a field lacking in effective closers the son of Goldencents should remain a strong factor throughout. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two with preference on top to I’m a Lucky Man.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Jane Austen
Backups/savers: 3-In Theory.
Forecast: Jane Austen performed better than her works suggested she would when winning her debut from odds-on hot shot Quick Brown Fox in a fast, highly rated extended sprint last month. In victory, the daughter of Tapit settled off the leaders to the head of the lane before responding when asked to indicate that added distance (and two turns) should be well within her capabilities. The M. Glatt barn has terrific stats with the stretch out angle (25% with a powerful ROI) so we’re expecting this $750,000 yearling purchase to repeat on the raise.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Doncic; 2-Mackinnon.
Backups/savers: 4-Devil Moon.
Forecast: We’ll double the sixth race, an abbreviated turf dash for $50,000 older claimers that despite the shortened five furlong trip should play into the strength of the mid-pack/closing runners. Doncic is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail, and if he can avoid traffic trouble the V. Cerin-trained six-year-old should be heard from close home. He’s been first or second in six of 10 starts over the local lawn and is a strong fit on numbers at this level. Ex-classer Mackinnon may find five furlongs a bit sharp, but he can really turn it on late and with some help up front should be picking up rivals in the final stages.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:07 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2-Keychain Girl; 1-Sweet Millie
Backups/savers: 3-Warren’s Wild Ride.
Forecast: Keychain Girl makes her second start off a layoff and has a right to be fitter and stronger today for her low profile connections. She projects to be prominent throughout and has several back numbers that are good enough to win at this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 level for fillies and mares. However, given the spotty race pattern throughout her career, she’s hardly one to trust. If Sweet Millie leaves cleanly from the rail the daughter of Mucho Macho Man could inherit the role as the controlling speed and get brave. Her win up north two races back, if repeated, would probably be good enough to beat this field.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket: 5-Jai Ho
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Jai Ho
Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis
May 17, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a 12-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)
2-Great Somewhere (5/2)-Has been in the mix versus better and is a logical use on a drop. Should be racing at the top of the stack and hasn't been in this cheap in 2024.
6-Yorokobi N (5-1)-Finished 2nd in a quick mile when dropped to this level on 5-9. Jordan Stratton has gate speed to work with and he could have the pedal down. Can land in a close-up seat and be heard from at the wire.
Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)
4-Gaelihill (3-1)-Hasn't been able to finish off miles versus better. Now, takes a good drop-in class and looks like a main player versus this kind.
5-Black Tie Bash (9/2)-This is another who should relish the company and may have met a beatable field. Posted a win here on 3-22 at this class and the same could happen tonight.
Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)
2-Uptown Hanover (5/2)-Raced well in 3 of the last 4 and went gate to wire last time. Takes a big step up but should be a player if back class kicks in. Could be on top or in the pocket off the gate and might be overlooked because of taking on better.
3-Twin B Sunkissed (4-1)-Comes off a dull effort but does fit. Usually is in the hunt with an inside post draw and George Brennan could be aggressive in this spot.
4-No Win No Feed A (9/2)-Won last at this class and might have a tactical advantage over others. Mark MacDonald could leave hard and get the top but doesn't have to lead every step of the way to take another picture.
Race 12 10:40 PM EST)
1-Creative Venture (3-1)-Doesn't win often but if the top check is going to be cashed this would be the time. Brent Holland can work an efficient trip, and this is a beatable field.
3-Fix A Drink (2-1)-Drops to a spot to shine and uses Lasix for the 2nd time. Should get a close-up ground saving trip and may capture the 1st win since shipping in from Mohawk.
$1.00 Late Pick 4
2,6/4,5/2,3,4/1,3
Total Bet=$24
Pimlico Late Pick 4 Friday, May 17
May 17, 2024 | By Frank Carulli
PIMLICO LATE PICK 4
Friday, May 17, 2024
The 100th running of the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes will be the feature of an all-stakes 50-cent Pick 4 at Pimlico this Friday, May 17. No favorite has won the 1-1/8-mile test for 3-year-old fillies since 2011. Sophomore fillies will take center stage in the Grade 3 Miss Preakness to begin the sequence, followed by the $100,000 Very One Stakes on the turf and Grade 3 Pimlico Special. Here’s a closer look with a suggested $64 play:
PIM 10th race (4:07 p.m. EST) -- DISCREET OPS turned heads with a 7-3/4-length debut victory at 20-1 odds and impressed again in allowance company five months later. She raced close up under a snug hold, asserted herself between two rivals at the top of the stretch, took command at the eighth pole and galloped out strongly after winning. She gets an extra half-furlong in the Grade 3 Miss Preakness and is a must use at 12-1 on the morning line. MYSTIC LAKE set a ‘well measured’ pace and beat two next-out winners in a 6F allowance victory two back at Tampa Bay Downs. She was ‘hounded’ on the lead in a 7F stakes at Woodbine but held second behind the trip-sitting winner. She draws the rail with plenty of speed to her outside, but she’s worth using at 6-1 in her three-peat attempt on conventional dirt with Prat riding for the first time.
PIM 11th race (4:38 p.m. EST) -- KAUFYMAKER has made limited starts since she ran third against the boys in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. But she is 3-for-4 in allowance company and had what trainer Wesley Ward reportedly described as a ‘fantastic breeze’ at Keeneland to get ready for her seasonal debut at age 5 in the $100,000 Very One. FUTURE IS NOW went wire-to-wire in turf sprint victories at three venues and posted one of her three 92-plus Beyer speed figures when second in a stakes race, earning a long look for a high-percentage trainer-jockey tandem. PORT TOWNSEND is another longshot to consider. She’s 2-for-2 with Hernandez aboard, won on firm and soft footing and projects a dream stalking trip at 15-1. QUEEN OF THE MUD shifted 6-wide and rallied past the surprise leader when last seen winning a 5-1/2F allowance at Keeneland seven months ago for a good layoff barn.
PIM 12th race (5:10 p.m. EST) -- Hall of Fame trainers Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen send out the two favorites in their bid for a third victory in the $250,000, Grade 3 Pimlico Special. KINGSBARNS, the 7-5 morning-line choice as he nears millionaire status, showed his class and versatility in winning the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on the lead last year as a 3-year-old and the Grade 3 Ben Ali from off the pace in his second start this year at the same 1-3/16-mile distance of the Pimlico Special. Asmussen’s RED ROUTE ONE, fourth in last year’s Preakness, earned triple-digit Beyers in winning the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic at Fair Grounds and running third in the Oaklawn Handicap in his last two starts. The faster the pace, the better the chances for the late-running son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner.
PIM 13th race (5:44 p.m. EST) -- The featured $300,000, Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan turns 100 years old Friday. But will the 12-year run of losing favorites continue? The five runners listed 6-1 or lower on the morning line posted Beyer speed figures of 74-75-77-78-79 in graded stakes company since March 30, though none won. It’s an ‘ALL’ punch in the final leg of the sequence.
Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
PIM 10th Race: 1, 10
PIM 11th Race: 1, 3, 4, 10
PIM 12th Race: 2, 5
PIM 13th Race: ALL
Cost for 50-cent ticket: $64
Scott Shapiro: $50K Preakness Weekend Exacta-Thon Best Bets
May 16, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
We have a number of tremendous promotions at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet slated for Preakness weekend, including one of the best in the game, EXACTA-THON.
It is pretty simple. Customers who cash exactas on six different races on Friday or Saturday will split a cool $20,000. Plus, the customer(s) who makes the most winning Exacta bets that day will win or split an additional $5,000. So that is a total of $50,000 of free money on the line over the two cards making this an absolute no-brainer to register for immediately. Here are a few exactas I will definitely be including amongst my EXACTA-THON plays.
Friday Plays:
Race 8: Allaire DuPont Distaff
There could be some opportunity not only to connect on an exacta in the first leg of the Rainbow 6, but to beat a potentially over bet filly as well in #1 Julia Shining. The regally-bred daughter of Curlin rattled off a pair of victories to kick off her career for Todd Pletcher, but has failed to revisit the winner’s circle since. She ran decent off the layoff at Keeneland last month, but looked like a winner before hanging late and finishing third at odds-on. The Stonestreet Stables gal is capable of moving forward in her second try off the bench, but I am willing to let her beat me in this 9-furlong affair over the main track.
I will build my wagers around #4 Musical Mischief. The Stoneway Farm filly bested Julia Shining back on April 13th and should get a great stalking trip under Hall of Famer John Velazquez. As the 3-1-third choice on the morning line, she appears to have some upside still and is likely to get the jump on her main rivals. I will key her over #5 Queen of Missoula who should be finishing well under Flavien Prat and with #8 Shotgun Hottie who gets serious class relief for trainer Cherie DeVaux
Plays: Exacta 4 with 5+8, Exacta 8-4
Race 13: Black-Eyed Susan
This year’s Black-Eyed Susan appears relatively wide-open with #7 Corposo listed as the 5-2-morning line favorite shipping in from Southern California for Peter Eurton. The Vino Rosso filly has run the fastest races, but is tough to get excited about at the price given her 1 for 3 -record with the lone victory coming against a rival that has been defeated at 6-5 or less in three consecutive efforts. She is not an outright toss for me against this bunch, but I am certainly unwilling to live and die with her.
Instead, I will build my wagers around #4 Call Another Play. The daughter of Audible gets a class test on Friday, but she has been a different racehorse since trainer Michael Trombetta added the blinkers last December. The Maryland-bred should get an honest pace to run at and offers tremendous value at her 8-1-morning line offering. I will use the aforementioned Corposo with her, as well as #5 Gun Song who tries two turns for just the second time after a stalk and fade effort in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). If she handles the added ground, she should be there at the wire.
Play: Exacta Key Box 4 with 5+7
Saturday’s Plays
Race 8: Maryland Sprint
#2 Prevlance is a morning line favorite I will be taking a stand against on the Preakness Stakes undercard. The son of Medaglia d’Oro won for the first time since April 9, 2022 last out at Keeneland and did so impressively, but with a perfect trip under Irad Ortiz, Jr. Perhaps the blinkers on the dirt made the difference, but the move to an inside post and his inability to put back-to-back races together are concerning.
#4 Jaxon Traveler is my top choice and key horse in this year’s Maryland Sprint (G3). The son of Munnings has feasted at Pimlico over the years earning three wins and two seconds in six lifetime tries. The Maryland-bred was flat in his fifth-place finish last out in the Count Fleet (G3), but somewhat understandably coming off one the best efforts of his career in the Whitmore (G3). Expect Flavien Prat to find a comfortable spot just off the early leaders and find his way back to the Pimlico winner’s circle.
I will use #6 Prince of Jericho and #7 Bourbon Bash with my key horse. Prince of Jericho was beaten by #1 Coastal Mission last out at Laurel, but had a less favorable voyage. Bourbon Bash has struggled to finish the deal ,but he has hit the board in seven straight and ships into Baltimore off of a good second to O’Besos in the St.Matthews at Churchill Downs.
Play: Exacta Key Box 4 with 6+7
Race 13: Preakness Stakes
The 149th running of the Preakness Stakes looked like Muth’s race to lose after an impressive victory in the Arkansas Derby (G1), but the Bob Baffert trainee was scratched due to spiking a fever. This opens things up quite a bit for my price play #7 Just Steel. The Justfiy colt has only put forth two poor performances as a three-year-old and both are excusable. He was caught impossibly wide throughout in his seventh-place finish in the Rebel (G2), but he bounced back with a career best runner-up effort to Muth in the aforementioned Arkansas Derby. Many will toss him after being beaten 33-lengths in the Derby, but that might be a mistake. He was jostled around quite a bit at the start forcing Keith Asmussen to perhaps be a little more aggressive in his attempt to find a good forward position than expected. This led to him being a part of the contentious first three-quarters of mile and fading badly in the lane. With the rider switch to Joel Rosario and a race shape that is highly unlikely to produce a fast pace, he should have no issue setting early and having much more left when the real running begins.
Just Steel is the best value option in this year’s Preakness, but the Derby winner #5 Mystik Dan is the likeliest to capture the second leg of the Triple Crown. He may have gotten a great ride along the inside under Brian Hernandez, Jr, but he was up close to a contentious pace and showed a lot of heart and determination fighting through the hole on the inside and still having enough energy to hold off Sierra Leone and Forever Young. I love his chances to run a big race right back. #8 Tuscan Gold is my other use. The Chad Brown conditioned colt has not raced since the Louisiana Derby where he was caught wide throughout in his initial try against winners, but still battled to the end earning third at 11-1. Do not be surprised if he is closer to the early pace than it may appear on paper with Tyler Gaffalione returning to ride.
Plays: Exacta Box 4+7, Exacta Key Box 7 with 4+8
Good luck!
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Pimlico - Race #2
Pimlico - Race #3
Picks Notes #3 HAD TO HAVE HIM (6-1) Can make good use of his speed at a tempting price, today’s Best Bet. #12 FUN NOTION (7-2) In top form, has a win and three near misses with Carrasco aboard. #7 TIDEWATER (3-1) Six-figure grass bankroll, solid numbers, second start as 4yo after beaten fave. Race Summary HAD TO HAVE HIM backed off an early duel from post 11, made an inside run at the 23-1 winner in mid-stretch and finished an even third at 5-1/2F. He won’t back down today from a better post in a turf sprint that lacks quality speed. Bet to win and place and play 3-7 and 3-12 exactas.
Pimlico - Race #5
Picks Notes #5 NIELSON (4-1) All-or-nothing for barn that excels with long layoff types. #7 LUCKY PRINCE (8-1) Chased pace, dropped back on turn, willing re-bid in useful debut. #9 CAR RIDE (5-1) Tracked early duel in near miss, out-kicked by 3-2 winner while 3-wide in follow-up. Race Summary NIELSON, a $550,000 sales buy, returns from a 1-1/2-year layoff and runs for a claiming tag. But he’s in the right hands, gets Lasix and shows a pair of :48-1/5 works to get ready. Bet to win and place and play a 5,7/5,7,9/ALL trifecta.
Picks Notes #5 POINT DUME (7-2) Pulled away in 6F entry-level allowance for 34-percent sprint-to-route barn. #10 GOLDEN CANDY (2-1) Earned top speed fig in defeat off Farrior claim, worked bullet in the mud. #7 NO EASY DAYS (10-1) Lived up to heavy backing with three wins and two seconds this year. Race Summary POINT DUME returns to a 6F distance that produced two wins by a combined 14-1/2 lengths. He faded going a route of ground while chasing Preakness entrant Cooper Tax (scratched) on a sloppy track in the Private Terms stakes. He runs as a first-time gelding but is worth a win and place bet at 7-2 on the morning line.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hastings
PURCHASE
Hastings - Race 2 Claiming $16,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 7:30P (PLUS UP TO $3,500 THRIF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 17 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, FOR EACH $1,750 TO $12,500 2 LBS. FRESH HORSE WAIVER ELIGIBLE IF THE FRESH HORSE CRITERIA HAS BEEN MET. BRITISH COLUMBIA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.
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Race Type: Lone Stalker. PRINCE CAIRO is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PRINCE CAIRO: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. TIME TICKER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the d istance/surface. BRIAN'S DE LEIGHT: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. SLOOP JOHN B: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DESIRED OUTCOME: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer 's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. PRINCE CAIRO TIME TICKER BRIAN'S DE LEIGHT SLOOP JOHN B DESIRED OUTCOME
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FigureBRIAN'S DE LEIGHT Front-runner SLOOP JOHN B Front-runner PRINCE CAIRO Alternator/Stalker LOGICAL AL Trailer DESIRED OUTCOME Trailer TIME TICKER Alternator/Trailer
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline DownsPURCHASE
Evangeline Downs - Race 4 Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $11,500 • Post: 6:51P FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 17, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 17, 2024 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 17, 2024 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT AND ELIGIBILITY).
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Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SHELLBY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SHELLBY: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distan ce/surface. LADY HOPPER: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. VALTESSE: Horse had a bull et workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BRAVE CITY GIRL: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second start s after a long layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SHELLBY LADY HOPPER VALTESSE BRAVE CITY GIRL
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Speed
FigureSHELLBY Front-runner LADY HOPPER Front-runner BRAVE CITY GIRL Front-runner DEBBIES PASSAGE Front-runner LUNCH LADY Front-runner VALTESSE Front-runner SAY WHAT Alternator/Stalker A WISH FOR MADELYN Alternator/Stalker
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belmont at the Big A
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $85000 Class Rating: 98
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $45,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER IN 2024 ALLOWED 2
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 2 THANK YOU JON 15/1
# 5 LOCKE AND KEY 9/5
# 4 LIGHT MAN 4/1
THANK YOU JON looks to be a very strong contender particularly if the morning line of 15/1 holds. Has a solid record at the distance and surface, which makes me give the nod to this gelding. LOCKE AND KEY - This one has been constatntly racing well recently. He has been running soundly and the Equibase Speed Figs are among the strongest in this group of animals. LIGHT MAN - Has performed quite well recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 85 avg Equibase Speed Fig. This gelding obviously likes the distance, going 1 - 2 in his races lately.
Century Mile - Race #7 - Post: 8:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 55
Rating:
#4 ANNA'S GIRL (ML=9/2)
#11 LANA'S PRETTY GIRL (ML=12/1)
ANNA'S GIRL - She has the highest earnings per race. Take a long look at this horse. Taking a class drop in Equibase class figure points from her Mar 16th race at Golden Gate Fields. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this thoroughbred the advantage. LANA'S PRETTY GIRL - PP data show this horse with three improving speed ratings. Natera should be on a live one in today's race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MILITARY SASS (ML=2/1), #3 BURNING UP (ML=5/1), #5 PARZANNI (ML=6/1),
MILITARY SASS - The Brain always cautions me to stay away from thoroughbreds in short distance races that haven't finished in the money in sprint races of late. BURNING UP - No success for this horse in a short distance contest over the last couple months tells me that this filly is in a difficult circumstance The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this mount as a questionable contender. PARZANNI - Hasn't raced since Sep 4th, probably too long ago to do much this time.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #4 ANNA'S GIRL to win at post-time odds of 6/5 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Box [4,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:None SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:Skip
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $34500 Class Rating: 99
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $35,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 17, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000 (MAIDEN OR
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 6 BIZZEE CHANNEL 12/1
# 10 DON'TASK DON'TTELL 5/2
# 5 SPOILER 3/1
BIZZEE CHANNEL has a very strong shot to take this race and is a solid value bet given the line. If you look closely, this entrant has some longshot potential. A solid 101 avg Equibase class rating may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this group of horses in this race. Reason to like this gelding as he has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. DON'TASK DON'TTELL - He has been racing well recently while recording solid Equibase speed figs. Must be given consideration based on the very strong Equibase Speed Figure recorded in the last contest. SPOILER - Like the finishing positions in the last few races. Has performed solidly lately in route races, posting a nifty 92 avg speed figure.
Prairie Meadows - Race #1 - Post: 6:00pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,978 Class Rating: 61
Rating:
#5 REBA (ML=2/1)
REBA - This mare's last speed fig registered on April 14th is tops in last race Equibase speed figs.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 OLIVIA'S HOPE (ML=3/1), #7 NAUTICAL MISS (ML=7/2), #3 FARRAH FOWLER (ML=5/1),
OLIVIA'S HOPE - Not likely that the rating she notched on May 4th will hold up in this race. NAUTICAL MISS - 7/2 is not offering enough value for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 5 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint clash recently. Hard to keep following this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. This mare notched a speed rating in her last clash which probably isn't good enough today. FARRAH FOWLER - Hasn't been close to winning at all recently. Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint events recently. Doubtful to see her doing it today either.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #5 REBA is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Skip SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip
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