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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 5/26/24
May 26, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know
Sunday, May 26, 2024
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6-Marks Hip; 5-Hot Box; 2-Del Mar Jerry.
Backups/savers: 7-Jamming Eddy; 4-Time to Party.
Forecast: The Sunday opener is a borderline inscrutable $25,000 claiming turf sprint in which each of the entrants have positive and negative angles in their past performance chart. Best advice is to spread as deeply as your budget allows because no result would surprise us. Marks Hip shows the route-to-sprint angle that we like and this return to a sprint could be what puts him over the top. He’s won at this distance in the past and he’s won over the local lawn, so after finishing a solid third at this level over a mile last time out the son of Goldencents returns in two weeks with numbers that are good enough to beat this field. The negative? He’s finished off the board in 14 of 20 career starts and isn’t one to trust. Hot Box ran quite well over this course and distance two runs back when finishing a close third against a slightly softer band. However, he hasn’t won a race in two years, and while he’s a strong candidate to at least hit the board the B. Koriner-trained gelding hasn’t really been punching it in under pressure in his last several starts. Del Mar Jerry can act with these based on his best efforts but is unplaced in three career outings on grass. Perhaps at this level the son of Mastery will show he can handle the sod, but as a voided claim for $50,000 two races back the M. McCarthy-trained gelding certainly has a condition question.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: Lula Bella
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: We’re flying blind in this state-bred maiden juvenile filly dash, as we have no workout video to access Lula Bella , the morning line favorite at 2-1, but we have seen tape on several of the others and none of them have trained like win early types. So, let’s go with the Stanford filly trained by L. Mendez, who always has excellent stats with the first time starter angle. Two of her most recent three workouts were three furlong bullet gate works, so we’ll assume she’s got speed, as many of her sire’s offspring do. Still, for us, it’s a bit of a guessing game, so we suggest you tread lightly.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4-Half Nelson
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Half Nelson was more than five lengths clear of the rest when second in a similar affair over this track and distance last month and if she can turn in two alike – no slam dunk for a filly that is winless in nine starts over the local main track – she can handle this assignment. On pure form, she’s a need-the-lead type, though in a field with just four other runners the daughter of Lord Nelson shouldn’t have to work too hard to achieve the role as the controlling speed. You can use her as a no value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:38 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: Lahaina Flavor
Backups/Savers: 4-Single Track Mind (Ire); 1-Explain This Audit; Mega Moon.
Forecast: Here’s another spread race, this one a starter’s allowance affair over nine furlongs on turf while preferring on top the improving and developing Lahaina Flavor. The Point of Entry gelding was visually pleasing in victory over the local lawn two runs back and then in his most recent race produced another forward when fourth but earning a career top speed figure despite losing ground throughout and being pushed wide entering the lane. He’s back with “win rider” U. Rispoli, and in what projects to be a slowly run race early on the P. Gallagher-trained five-year-old, normally a deep closer, may be able to settle within range in the second flight and then be able to kick home when turned loose.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:10 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: Pavel’s Etoile; 4-Swift Harmony
Backups/savers: 3-Thirst in Vegas.
Forecast: Though she shows nothing flashy on the work tab, Pavel’s Etoile has trained like a filly with some ability, and in an unclassified 2-year-old state-bred filly sprint the A. Garcia-trained juvenile should be highly competitive. Her drills have been accomplished without being asked, and we suspect (hope?) she’ll display plenty of speed when asked to finally show it. At 5-1 on the morning line the daughter of Pavel seems as good as any and better than most in this abbreviated sprint that didn’t come up particularly strong. Swift Harmony flashed :21 4/5 early speed in her debut before steadily fading, but with that race under her belt the J. Periban-trained 2-year-old seems certain to be on or near the lead and stick around a lot longer this time.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: Mubtadaa; 7-Dandy Man Shines (Ire).
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: We’re not sure why Mubtadaa has been missing in action since winning in good style in mid-March (he didn’t record a workout in April), but he has a history of firing fresh, so we’ll assume that the V. Cerin-trained gelding in okay and ready to roll in this second level allowance turf miler. Most effective as the controlling speed and likely to inherit that type of trip in a field that doesn’t promise much pace, the son of War Front has won three outings from five starts over the Santa Anita grass course and projects as the one to beat once again. Dandy Man Shines was a non-threatening second at 4/5 at this level last time out and doesn’t seem to have the same turn of foot that he displayed last year during a promising sophomore campaign that saw him win a stakes and place in a graded affair when facing his own age group. Furthermore, he’s winless in seven starts on the local turf course and his speed figures, while highly competitive at this level, seem to have stagnated. We have to use him, but he may be vulnerable.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:14 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 5-Rumble King; 3-I’m a Bad Boy; 1-Infamous Angel; 6-Go Go Prancer.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: R Heisman is the obvious top pick but must draw in from the also eligible list, so we‘ll handicap this race under the assumption that he’ll remain in the barn. Rumble King brought $225,000 through the ring as a yearling and debuts in this California-bred juvenile sprint without a whole lot to worry about among the competition. He’s done pretty well in the morning for trainer S. Knapp, whose first time starters have been outrunning their workouts of late with a win percentage (22%) that is quite strong. One of the stable’s “go-to” riders (T. Pereira) gets the call, so this son of Stay Thirsty looks very much like a live item. I’m a Bad Boy is another one of those L. Mendez entrants that must automatically be considered. A recent bullet :35 1/5 gate drill (fastest of 28) caught the eye. Infamous Angel has been training at San Luis Rey Downs, which is 80 miles out of range of our cameras, but the son of Pavel shows two bullet drills on his work tab, including a :47 flat drill just five days, so let’s assume he can run a least a little bit. Go Go Prancer has appeared to be a quick type on video and J. Bonde always has been a quite capable trainer with young stock. Toss him somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:46 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: Loterie (Ire); 7-Sweet Delta Dawn.
Backups/savers: 2-Runyon Canyon; 10-Willa T.
Forecast: Loterie (Ire) has failed as the favorite in each of her three starts since being imported from Ireland, but she’s run well enough to keep her on the “follow” list under the expectation that she’ll break on through eventually, perhaps today. Strong in the speed figure department and stakes placed last summer at Del Mar, the P. D’Amato-trained sophomore has been trouble prone (some of it her fault) but with clear sailing today she’ll definitely be a major player. Sweet Delta Dawn had a couple of outings in Ireland last year and ran reasonably well. Her Timeform ratings were moderate, but she has every right to be a better type in her U. S. debut for hot trainer R. Baltas.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:14 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: Adare Manor
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Adare Manor is listed as the 3/5 morning line favorite in this year’s edition of the Santa Margarita S.-G2 and likely will leave even lower than that. First or second in 10 of 11 starts over the Santa Anita main track, she has recorded back-to-back triple digit Beyer figures and none of the other four entrants have numbers that are even remotely close. In what appears to be a mere formality, the B. Baffert-trained daughter of Uncle Mo is an obvious rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:40 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 4-First Peace
Backups/savers: 8-Lane Way; 9-Johnny Podres.
Forecast: First Peace is a genuine and consistent turf sprinter and is especially effective coming down the Hillside Turf Course (two wins, two seconds, in four start). Fast on numbers and with the type of tactical speed that should keep him free and clear of trouble, the M. Glatt-trained colt projects to enjoy an ideal stalking trip and then have every chance to go on when set down. Though missing at odds-on under these conditions when a solid runner-up in the Siren Lure Stakes last month, the son of Funtastic should make amends today while offering excellent wagering value at or near his morning line of 4-1.
Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis
May 26, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are are based on a fast track
Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)
1-Fly Charlie Fly (7/2)-Sat in the pocket and then rolled by in a 152.4 mile last week. Started from the rail that night and could get the same type of trip here. Does step-up but has been a winner against this kind back on 4-1 and could get a pocket ride behind the program choice.
5-Liteningonthebeach (8/5)-Comes off a big try at the Mea leaving from post 8 versus similar. Has won 4 of 6 here and that includes cashing the top check facing Open company. Aaron Merriman gets the call and he has won 26% of his drives for the Bercury stable. Could add to that total at a small price.
Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)
2-Club Scene (4-1)-Just missed in last but didn't get a smooth trip, was caught 3 wide on the backside and on the last turn. Usual pilot takes over for Ronnie Wrenn and that could help in this case.
6-American Classic (7/2)-Meadows shipper who comes off 2 wins and now jumps up in class and makes its Nfld debut. Normally this wouldn't be a chocie set-up for me. But Ron Burke usually puts them where then can win. Best to respect, this 5-year-old did win 9 of 33 starts last year.
9-Martins Millions (2-)-Scioto shipper drew off by almost 4 lengths in last while facing similar. Has 1 picture in 5 starts here and should be a player, but needs to get off the gate in a good seat. Merriman steers, and he could get the 4 -year-old in striking range by top of the last turn.
Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)
1-Chief Mate (9-1)-Meadows shipper comes off a win but lands here in deeper water. Pilot Sam Widger makes a rare Nfld appearance. Willing to take a swing for a price anticipating the veteran lands in the pocket behind #2 and posts a trip out win.
2-Grantmeawish (3-1)Merriman has big gate speed at his disposal. His best chance to take a picture is probably by landing on the point and controlling the mile. Figures to be in the mix with an inside post draw but needs to do a better job of finishing.
6-Mull Of Kintyre (7/2)-This is a consistent check casher when facing Open company. Billy Davis Jr also has gate speed to use but this veteran can down this crew without leading every step of the way.
Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)
3-Louie The Horse N (6-1)-This is one level above where Louie shines but usually is in the mix with an inside post draw. The Bendis barn has been clicking at a 29% win rate the past 30 days. Widger gets an in side draw and could get sucked around and be a player at the wire at a solid price.
6-Nvrpoptdaplugs (7/2)Moves up in class after beating up on the NW6500L4 and can dance with this kind. Merriman can make a 2nd quarter move and look to take control when the wings fold. This will be the 2nd straight start at Nfld, comes back in sequence and looks like a definite double up possibility.
$1.00 Late Pick 4
1,5/2,6,9/1,2,6/3,6
Total Bet=$36
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Santa Anita - Race #9
Santa Anita - Race #10
Picks Notes #5 Adare Manor She got really good around the same time last year and exits an easy Apple Blossom score. Thought about playing against her, but I think she gets a perfect attack draw, too. #2 Super Shine Her best chance would likely come from an aggressive early run that put her in charge, but I don't feel like she's going to get much of a break with the top choice breathing down her neck the entire way if she goes. #4 Blue Dream Machine She wasn't embarrassed behind some of these when stepping into Grade II company with some of these last out off a February debut score in New York. Presumably enough upside here to think she could land a bigger piece today. Race Summary Adare Manor figures to hit hard in this spot -- I'm guessing they'll try hard to keep her right up on the splits where she has done her best work.
Santa Anita - Race #8
Picks Notes #10 Almendares He has turned in a handful of big efforts over the last year, and I think he has some appeal on the move back to a sprint run while meeting a couple of forward players who might keep the pace just honest enough. Along late? #2 Mucho Del Oro There are some other forward players lined up in here, but he's probably the quickest pure sprint speed, and that gives him at least some chance to run these off their feet. #4 First Peace He might offer a bit better number this time around, and he's got the pace to prompt Mucho Del Oro early on. Makes a lot of sense. Race Summary Almendares cuts back, and this sharper trip might wake him up a little bit after knocking on the door with graded company going long.
Picks Notes #9 Ashley Think she might find a really good right up on the pace in a race without a whole lot of early burn, and a more leisurely route tempo might work in her favor. Interesting. #7 Sweet Delta Dawn She wouldn't be a surprise while making her first North American start, and the action on the tote figures to tell a similar tale. One of the ones. #4 Loterie She has a clear claim on this while going second off the layoff, but she has settled for second in three consecutive races while never offering a better price than 9/5. Race Summary Ashley should offer a midrange price in a competitive spot, and she might work out a trip today while stretching out. Consider #10 Willa T and #2 Runyon Canyon on deeper plays.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Hour Wagers
PURCHASE
Golden Hour Wagers - Race 1 Stakes • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 107 • Purse: $200,000 • Post: 5:18P SANTA MARGARITA S. SA - R9 - GRADE 2 FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH IF MADE ON OR BEFORE THURSDAY, MAY 16, 2024, CLOSED WITH 8 OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $4,000 AT TIME OF ENTRY, CLOSED WITH 1 (BLUE DREAM MACHINE) $1,500 TO ENTER AND AN ADDITIONAL $1,500 TO START WITH $200,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH $120,000 TO WINNER, $40,000 TO SECOND, $24,000 TO THIRD, $12,000 TO FOURTH AND $4,000 TO FIFTH. THREE-YEAR OLDS. 118 LBS OLDER 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A GRADE I OR GRADE II STAKE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 26, 2023, ALLOWED 2 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A GRADED STAKE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 26, 2023, ALLOWED 4 LBS. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE WINNING OWNER.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SUPER SHINE (ARG) is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SUPER SHINE (ARG): Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/ surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. ADARE MANOR: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMa ster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SUPER SHINE (ARG) ADARE MANOR
Line
Class
Speed
FigureSUPER SHINE (ARG) Front-runner ADARE MANOR Stalker HENNYS CRAZY TRAIN Stalker COFFEE IN BED Trailer BLUE DREAM MACHINE Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ruidoso DownsPURCHASE
Ruidoso Downs - Race 1 Trial • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 80 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 1:00P QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE 2024 RUIDOSO QUARTER HORSE DERBY (G1). WEIGHT: 126 LBS. LATE NOMINATIONS OF $30,000 (INCLUDES ALL FEES) WILL BE ACCEPTED AT THE TIME OF ENTRY INTO THE TRIALS. THE TEN FASTEST QUALIFIERS WILL ADVANCE TO THE FINALS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * VISA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. HEZA RELENTLESS MESS: Horse ran ks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. JD DANCE MONKEY: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. VISA HEZA RELENTLESS MESS JD DANCE MONKEY
Line
Class
Speed
FigureAJ LUCKY WINNER Average TRES RELOADED Slow JD DANCE MONKEY Average/Trouble-prone RELENTLESSCHARGER Fast HEZA RELENTLESS MESS Average VISA Fast KJ HENRY B Fast PLAYIN WITH FYRE Slow
Energy Downs 307 Racing - Race #7 - Post: 4:00pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 54
Rating:
#4 PRAIRIE SONG (ML=8/1)
#1 PERFECT SELINA (ML=10/1)
PRAIRIE SONG - Jimenez should have her moving solid on the turn. Should do well today. Weight shift of -6 from Sep 8th race at Sweetwater Downs. PERFECT SELINA - This rider and conditioner's horses have been producing a favorable ROI. Taking a trip down the class ladder; has the class to make her presence felt. Filly was in versus 'open company' on September 24th and should find this group easier to deal with. Johnson gets a break on this horse carrying 5 pounds less than last out. This certainly could make the difference in today's race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 DIABLOS MOON (ML=9/5), #2 GETTIN TWO COZZY (ML=7/2), #3 WYOMING JEWEL (ML=4/1),
DIABLOS MOON - Can't play this probable favorite off the long layoff. GETTIN TWO COZZY - Hasn't been coming close at all of late. I find it hard to play any thoroughbred in a short distance race at 7/2 when she hasn't shown any successful efforts in sprints in the last 60 days. Don't think this questionable contender will make an impact in today's event. That last speed fig was substandard when compared with today's class figure. WYOMING JEWEL - I'm foreseeing a lackluster attempt out of her this time.
GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - PRAIRIE SONG - At first glance the last contest doesn't look that good, but upon further inspection that race fits right with this field.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #4 PRAIRIE SONG to win if you can get at least 3/2 odds EXACTA WAGERS: Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Skip
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 6.5f on the Turf. Purse: $61600 Class Rating: 90
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR ONTARIO SIRED ALLOWANCE WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 3 PAT'S GAMBLE 5/2
# 6 MOON OVER EGBERT 8/1
# 2 JO DADDY 15/1
My selection in this competition is PAT'S GAMBLE. Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of decent win percentage - 21 percent - at this distance & surface. Could beat this field given the 86 speed fig garnered in his last outing. MOON OVER EGBERT - Has to be given a chance against this group of animals displaying competitive figs recently and an average speed rating of 71 under similar conditions. JO DADDY - Reliable average Equibase Speed Figs in turf sprint races make this pony a solid choice.
Pimlico - Race #7 - Post: 3:34pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 74
Rating:
#1 NOT THISTIMERANDY (ML=5/2)
NOT THISTIMERANDY - Stand by this horse. Coming off the pace, I think he'll be in a terrific spot to bury them in the stretch. Utilizing this jockey/handler combination is a smart choice. This colt is in fine physical condition, having run a good race on May 11th, finishing fourth.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BRYSONS OPTION (ML=6/5), #6 TUBTIMSIAM (ML=3/1), #3 SURFBOARD (ML=6/1),
BRYSONS OPTION - Can't really invest in this kind of oft beaten favorite. Hasn't been on the Pimlico oval in the last three weeks. Cause for some concern. TUBTIMSIAM - Don't think this mount is worth 3/1 in this contest. SURFBOARD - Would have to perk up off that fourth place finish last time out to make an impact here. Don't believe this racer will make an impact in today's race. That last speed figure was substandard when compared with today's Equibase class figure.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #1 NOT THISTIMERANDY to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds EXACTA WAGERS: 1 with 4
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Skip SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Monmouth Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $55000 Class Rating: 90
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $20,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 26 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 10 KITTEN'S APPEAL 7/2
# 3 MADELINE'S GROGU 20/1
# 8 COLLECT DATTT 8/1
KITTEN'S APPEAL is my choice. Is a solid contender - given the 79 Equibase speed fig from her most recent race. She has decent class ratings, averaging 89, and has to be given a shot in this event. Strong average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this pony a definite contender. MADELINE'S GROGU - Recently Spina has provided bettors with a very strong winning percentage with horses running in dirt sprint races. Could beat this group given the 81 speed figure recorded in her last outing. COLLECT DATTT - A solid 89 avg class rating may give this filly a distinct class edge against this group. This filly obviously likes the distance, going 4 for 14 in her races as of late.
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