Mon Feb 08, 2010 6:10 pm by IWS Zak
Craig Davis Monday's Lineup
30 Dime – VILLANOVA
15 Dime – MAVERICKS
VILLANOVA --- Either Vegas is setting us up with the "trap" of a lifetime or we're getting some tremendous line value after the way each team performed over the weekend. I prefer to believe we're getting some solid line value after Villanova played like crap at Georgetown (at least defensively) Saturday and then had to turn around and travel out of the snowy weather for another game just over 48 hours later. All the cards seem to be stacked against the Wildcats in this one with all the "outside" factors, but when you boil it down to the nuts and bolts of both these teams, I think you have to favor Villanova to at least stay within this number (which is currently sitting at +6 at the time of this writing).
I have no doubt in my mind that West Virginia is more than capable of winning this game, but the fact that they just pummeled St. Johns Saturday kinda tells me they are not treating any one game more importantly than another. Had they struggled to beat the Johnnies I might be a little hesitant to back the Wildcats in this spot, saying the Mounties were flat Saturday because they were looking ahead to this one... but, in fact, I believe it was the Wildcats who were looking ahead and that's why they came out flat at Georgetown. Meanwhile, the Hoyas lost a second-half lead at home vs. South Florida and eventually lost the game SU, which is another reason I liked G'town so much over Villanova.
When I handicap these college basketball games, I always take that into consideration before I release a play, and my feeling is that Villanova wants this game more, needs this game at least as much as, and is simply more talented overall than West Virginia. Villanova has been cash cow this season, covering 15 of their 21 lined games, including an 8-4 mark away from home. West Virginia, on the other hand, has burned cash this year, covering just 9 of 21 lined games with a 4-6 ATS mark at home. I've watched two recent West Virginia games, from wire to wire (Ohio State and Louisville)... both home games... and two games in which they were fortunate to come out on top. I'm not saying West Virginia is incapable of winning tonight, but to ask them to beat a very good Villanova team by 6 or more is a tall task. I'll take Villanova PLUS the number as my top play of the day.
DALLAS MAVERICKS --- If there's anything I've learned about the Dallas Mavericks this year, it's to bet against them at home and back them on the road. Despite their recent slide, the Mavs are still the best road team in the Western Conference and we find them in a GREAT spot tonight. A good team (like the Mavs) that is desperate for a win can often times use a game like this to get themselves back on track. Despite being 31-19 on the season, the Mavs could be a lot better (record-wise) than they are right now, had it not been for the fact they dropped four out of their last five and five of their last eight. Not only that, but the Mavs haven't covered a number since that 128-78 win over the Knicks back on January 24th.
I'm not going to say the Mavs are desperate, but this is as close to desperation as it gets. They need a win to get back where they used to be... the #2 seed in the West. For several weeks the Mavericks were the second best team (at least according to their record) in the Western Conference, but this recent slide has pushed them down the fourth best record in the Conference and they're in danger of falling further behind. The Mavs might not score as many points as the Warriors do, but they do shoot a better percentage from three-point land and from the line, they rebound and defend better, they turn the ball over less and they have a deeper bench. Golden State is going to play a nearly flawless game to stay within this number tonight, and with desperation in Mavs camp, I'm comfortable backing them as a small road favorite. Mavs by 8.