11-20-08

[Mr. IWS]

::lmao::

[Mr. IWS]

spreitzer 25* Memphis

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

Thursday Daily Dog

Seton Hall


Las Vegas Insider NCAAF

Georgia Tech


Daily Delight NCAAB

Mizzu

[Mr. IWS]

LANG


Thursday

15 Dime Miami, Florida (if your man has 3, be sure to buy the 1/2 and take the 3-1/2 points; if for some reason he has a 2-1/2 on this game, then buy it up to 3.)

5 Dime Bengals



FREE - Over Bengals/Steelers (See daily video for your analysis in this game)

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
NFL

I'm playing on Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to finish UNDER the total. This number seems very low at first glance. However, it's low for a good reason. As is often the case, the Steelers have been one of the best defensive teams in the league again this season. They're allowing just 15 points (2nd best in the NFL) and 237 total yards (best in the entire NFL!) per game. They've been particularly stingy in divisional games as their AFC North rivals are averaging only 12 points and 221 yards per game. This week, the Steelers will be facing a Cincy team which is averaging only 13.8 points (2nd worst in the NFL) and 242.6 total yards (worst in the entire NFL!) per game. Note that the Bengals have been particularly inept in divisional play, averaging only 10.7 points per game and a mere 192.3 total yards. While the Bengals' defense hasn't been great, they have proven that they are capable on the side of the ball recently. Last week, the Bengals limited the Eagles to just 13 total points, through four quarters AND an overtime session. The previous week, they Bengals held the Jaguars to just 19 points. While the earlier meeting, back in October, did finish above the total, the UNDER remains a profitable 12-7 the last 19 times that the Bengals were getting points. During the same stretch, the Bengals have seen the UNDER go 7-2 when facing a team which previously defeated them. Look for a low-scoring affair with the UNDER improving to 6-1 the last seven times the Bengals faced an opponent from the AFC. *AFC North TOY





BEN BURNS
EPIC 28-6 run continues
ACC GAME OF MONTH

I'm laying the points with GEORGIA TECH. Home teams have enjoyed outstanding success on Thursday nights this season and the situation favors the home team again this week. While Miami is coming off a hard-fought game vs. Virginia Tech exactly one week ago, Georgia Tech has had nearly two weeks off. The fact that the Yellow Jackets lost their last game should have served them well during the extra week of practice. Note that the Yellow Jackets are an outstanding 7-1 ATS the last eight times they were coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. That includes a 2-0 ATS mark this season. After losing to Virginia Tech, the Yellow Jackets responded by crushing Mississippi State by a score of 38-7. More recently, after losing to Virginia, the Yellow Jackets responded by defeating Florida State, scoring 31 points in the process. Note that the extra time off should have allowed cornerback Jahi Word-Daniels to return from injury, which will provide a huge lift to the defense. It should also be noted that Georgia Tech's recent loss came on the road and that the Yellow Jackets have been terrific at home all season long. In six games here, the Yellow Jackets have gone 5-1, outscoring opponents by a commanding 27.3 to 12.2 margin. With the expected "White Out" I look for the home crowd to be a significant factor again tonight. The Yellow Jackets have dominated this series recently and I look for them to continue to do so this evening. *ACC GOM






BEN BURNS
TNT GAME OF MONTH

I'm laying the points with BOSTON. The Pistons were playing very well to begin the season. After a minor bump in the road immediately following the trade, they've now adjusted to life with Allen Iverson and are playing well again. That being said, the situation favors the defending champs tonight. While the Celtics were resting, the Pistons are coming off a hard-fought win over rival Cleveland last night. They were trailing by double-digits at halftime, so the win wasn't exactly 'easy.' While the Pistons are just 5-7 ATS the last 12 times they played the second of back to back games, this also marks their 10th straight game in which they have played in a different city than they played in the previous game. (Two of those were home games but they were separated by road games.) Making matters more difficult for Detroit was that several of those games were on the West Coast. Conversely, the Celtics are coming off a home game two nights ago and have played five of their last six games here. They haven't been involved in any back to back situations recently and their only road game during that six game stretch was in Milwaukee. In other words, the Boston players have been enjoying significantly more time in their own beds than the Detroit players have recently. The Celtics have been excellent defensively again this season. Currently, they're holding opponents to a 39.9 (best in league) shooting percentage and just 90.7 (2nd best in league) points per game. The Celtics, 6-1 at home and 8-1 their last nine overall, already defeated the Pistons at Detroit. Including that result, they have now won seven of the last nine series meetings. The Celtics are 13-7 ATS the last 20 times they were favored by eight points or less. I expect them to be the fresher team tonight and for them to continue their recent dominance in the series. *TNT GOM





BEN BURNS
NBA

I'm taking the points with PHOENIX. The Lakers are certainly playing very well. The Suns are a team which is fully capable of defeating them though. While the Suns lost the most recent two series meetings here, they're still a healthy 12-3 the last 15 times they hosted the Lakers. Naturally, they'll be highly motivated to resume that homecourt series dominance and prove that they can still compete with the defending Western Conference champs. Yes, the Suns are off a bad loss. That was at Utah though and they were playing the second of back to back games. Now, they're well rested and back home. In their last game here, the Suns dismantled Detroit by double-digits. Note that the Pistons are no slouches and that they recently handed the Lakers their first loss. Additionally, note that the Suns are 12-5 the last 17 times they were coming off a double-digit loss. For all their success the last couple of seasons, the Lakers are still just 5-8 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. The Suns are 14-3 their last 17 November home games. I feel that the current line offers excellent value and that the Suns have a solid shot at scoring the outright win. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

Root

Chairman- Ga Tech
Millionaire- No Arizona
No Limit- Vanderbilt

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al-

Thursday - Final
1* Vandy-6 (cbb)

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

Thursday College Opinions
VANDERBILT (-6 1/2) over Illinois
Vanderbilt applies to a very strong 77-25-4 ATS situation that is already 3-0 for me this season while Illinois applies to a negative 34-83-7 ATS road letdown situation. The record is a perfect 5-0 ATS when both of those angles apply to the same game, including a win on Boston College on Tuesday. However, my ratings favored Vanderbilt by just 5 points and the line opened at 4 1/2 points and has since gone up to 6 1/2 points - taking away much of the value from the situations. I'll still lean with Vanderbilt at -7 points or less.

Florida International (+22) over WASHINGTON
My ratings favor Washington by 18 points over an improved FIU squad (yes, I know FIU's leading returning scorer is out) and the line opened at 18 1/2 points. The line is now +22 points and I'll lean with Florida International based on the line value.

[Mr. IWS]

ppp oppinions
steelers over
ga tech

[Mr. IWS]

drbob
GEORGIA TECH (-3.5) 26 Miami Fla 19
04:30 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Nov-20 - Stats Matchup
Miami-Florida is simply not that good, as the Hurricanes have averaged only 4.9 yards per play while allowing 4.7 yppl this season to teams that 0.2 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, has out-gained their 8 Division 1A foes 5.9 yppl to 4.7 yppl and those opponents also average 0.2 yppl better than average. Miami does have excellent special teams, but my math model favors the Yellow Jackets by 6 1/2 points.