11-22-08

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's Superstar Triple Play-CFB (w/Big 12 GOY)
Larry has "an awful lot riding" on his 20* CFB Game of the Year this Saturday but he's also featuring the "biggest and most powerful" Superstar Triple Play (see bio) he's ever released in CFB. This blockbuster 3-in-1 report features his Rivalry G.O.M, the "Holy War" between BYU and Utah and his 20* Big 12 GOY on TT/OU! Enough said!




Larry Ness

GOY - 10* Arizona

Superstar Triple Play - 9* Oklahoma, 15* Utah, 15* Purdue (rivalry GOM)

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang
Saturday

40 Dime OLE MISS (if your sports book has a 3, buy the half point and take 3-1/2 points) -

10 Dime 6-Point Teaser Oklahoma and Iowa -

FREE - Oklahoma Sooner

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB

3-bowling green,


3-penn st,

3-utah u,

2-cincy u,

2-san diego st

He also had strong opinions on Indiana, Oregon State, and Florida International

[Mr. IWS]

Scotty Spreitzer

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

25* CFB "Woodshed" Game

Memphis

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

3 Star Selection
***PENN ST. (-14.5) 37 Michigan St. 10
12:30 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
This game will determine the Big 10 Championship, but these teams are not in the same class. Michigan State isn't that much better than an average team, averaging just 5.3 yards per play while allowing 5.1 yppl for the season (5.2 yppl to 5.0 yppl in Big 10 games). The Spartans are actually 0.3 yppl better than average after accounting for strength of opponents (average on offense at 0.3 yppl better than average on defense), but Penn State has been crushing teams of that caliber all season long. The Nittany Lions have played a slightly tougher schedule than Michigan State yet they've out-gained their opponents 6.2 yppl to 4.2 yppl while being 1.0 yppl better than average on offense and 1.4 yppl better than average defensively. Penn State has won 9 of their 11 games by 14 points or more this season, with the only exception being road games against Ohio State and Iowa, who are both considerably better than Michigan State (the Spartans lost 7-45 at home to Ohio State and were lucky to beat Iowa 16-13 at home, as they were out-gained 4.9 yppl to 5.1 yppl but were +2 in fumbles). With this game being in Happy Valley I just don't see a close contest and Joe Paterno's teams usually take care of business against lesser teams, as evidenced by Penn State's 19-6-1 ATS mark as a favorite of 9 points or more (17-4-1 ATS if not favored by more than 30 points). My math model favors Penn State by 20 ½ points in this game an Michigan State applies to a very negative 17-75-3 ATS situation while Penn State applies to a favorable 87-32-3 ATS late season situation. I'll take Penn State in a 4-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less, for 3-Stars from -14 ½ to -17 points and for 2-Stars from -17 ½ to -20 points.

3 Star Selection
***UTAH (-7.0) 36 BYU 19
03:00 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
BYU dropped 6 consecutive games to the number before covering the spread last week against Air Force. That game will not deter me from going against the overrated Cougars again this week. BYU has a very good offensive that has averaged 6.5 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team, but Utah is nearly as good defensively – rating at 0.7 yppl better than average (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl). The problem with BYU is a defense that has allowed only 5.0 yppl, but is actually below average since the Cougars faced a schedule of mostly bad offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team. Utah is no juggernaut offensively, but the Cougars are solidly better than average on offense (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack) and should move the ball pretty well in this game. Utah's overall advantage from the line of scrimmage is supplemented by outstanding special teams, including the nation's best kicker in Louie Sakoda. My math model favors Utah by 10 ½ points in this game and the Utes apply to a very strong 91-27-2 ATS home momentum situation while BYU applies to a negative 21-61-1 ATS road letdown situation. The underdog in this series is 17-7 ATS, but that will only serve to keep me from playing this game for 4-Stars. I'll take Utah in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points (at -1.20 or less) or less and for 2-Stars from -7 ½ to -10 points.

2 Star Selection
**CINCINNATI (-5.0) 32 Pittsburgh 19
04:15 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
Cincinnati has been an underrated team under coach Brian Kelly, as the Bearcats are 14-7 ATS in his tenure with 3 consecutive spread wins heading into this game. Kelly's teams, at Cincy and previously at Central Michigan, are 24-5-2 ATS in all games when not favored by more than 9 points and his teams at Cincinnati have done very well in competitively priced games – going 9-1 ATS when the spread is between -7 and +7 points. The Bearcats won for me last week despite their normally reliable field goal kicker (12 of 13 entering the game) missing all 3 of his kicks, as Cincy out-gained Louisville 6.5 yards per play to 4.5 yppl in that game. Pittsburgh is a better team than Louisville, but Cincinnati is better than Pittsburgh in all 3 facets of the game (offense, defense, and special teams) and this is also a coaching mismatch between Kelly and Dave Wannstadt. Pittsburgh has averaged an impressive 31 points per game this season, but that's a bit misleading given that the Panthers have averaged their 5.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Cincinnati is a very good defensive team (4.8 yppl allowed to Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team) and Pitt has averaged just 4.5 yppl in both games they've played against better than average defensive teams (Iowa and Notre Dame, who would combine to allow 4.9 yppl to an average team). Cincinnati's defense has been particularly good since allowing 7.2 yppl and 52 points to Oklahoma's juggernaut attack in week 2, as the Bearcats have not allowed more than 5.1 yppl to any other team all season. Pittsburgh's offense actually rates at 0.1 yppl better than average when Bill Stull is under center, but the Panthers' attack has a 0.8 yppl disadvantage in this game. Pittsburgh's defense has played well in 7 of their 9 games this season and they have allowed 5.1 yppl overall (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). However, the Panthers were horrible defensively against Rutgers, allowing 8.6 yppl and 54 points, which skews their stats. In cases like that I use a median rating and Pittsburgh's defense is actually 0.5 yppl better than average when I dampen the affect of that one horrible performance. Cincinnati's offense rates at 0.3 yppl better than average with Tony Pike at the controls, so Pitt has a 0.2 yppl advantage when the Bearcats have the ball. Overall, Cincinnati is 0.6 yppl better than Pittsburgh from the line of scrimmage, the Bearcats have better special teams and are also at home while projected to have a slight edge in turnovers too. Cincinnati should not only be favored by more than 5 points (the line should be 6 ½ or 7 points), but the Bearcats also apply to a 38-4 ATS subset of a 97-38-4 ATS momentum situation. I'll take Cincinnati in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 3-Stars at -4 or less.

2 Star Selection
**UNLV (-11.5) 31 SAN DIEGO ST. 28
05:00 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
Nobody wants to bet on a San Diego State team that is 1-11 on the season and riding an 8 game losing streak after losing 14-63 at home to Utah last week. But, the fact that the public will steer clear of the Aztecs, and would want to play on a UNLV team that must win for bowl game eligibility is part of what makes San Diego State a good bet – LINE VALUE. The oddsmakers know that Joe Gambler is not going to put his hard earned cash down on a team as bad as San Diego State and doesn't mind betting a UNLV team with incentive to win, which is why the line opened at 12 ½ points rather than a lower number. The smart money has already been betting UNLV and I'm smart enough to know that there is still plenty of value left on the side of the Aztecs. San Diego State does indeed have an injury depleted defensive that can't stop the run or the pass and the Aztecs have allowed an average of 6.3 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. The defense has been even worse since mid-season when the injuries to the defensive line forced true freshman into the mix, and San Diego State has been 1.5 yppl worse than average defensively in their last 5 games, which is how I rate them heading into this contest. UNLV's offense is decent for the season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack), but the Rebels haven't been good at all offensively the last 2 ½ games without star quarterback Omar Clayton, who was the only good thing about the Rebels' offense. Clayton averaged an outstanding 7.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) while throwing just 4 interceptions on 258 passes, but backup Mike Clausen has averaged a pathetic 4.3 yppp on 91 pass plays this season. UNLV has averaged only 4.1 yppl in Clausen's two starts the last two weeks against New Mexico and Wyoming, who would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. I actually rate UNLV's attack at 0.8 yppl worse than average with Clausen at quarterback and the Rebels have 0.7 yppl advantage when they have the ball. While UNLV should be able to move the ball pretty well in this game (my math model projects 6.3 yppl), the Rebels' horrible defense (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) will also allow San Diego State to move the ball well enough to stay competitive. The Aztecs atually have the better quarterback in this game, as Ryan Lindley averages a not so horrible 5.6 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB) while sporting a much better than average 24% interception rate. Lindley missed a couple of games and backup quarterback Drew Westling was horrible, but San Diego State rates at just 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively with Lindley at quarterback, which gives the Aztecs a 0.4 yppl advantage when they have the ball. San Diego State has been getting shutdown offensively by solid defensive teams in recent weeks, but they've performed very well against the bad defensive units they've faced this season, averaging 35.3 points , 458 yards and 6.5 yppl in games against Cal Poly, Idaho, and Colorado State, who would combine to allow 6.6 yppl to an average team – so the Aztecs were only 0.1 yppl worse than average against bad defensive teams and my math model projects 6.2 yppl for them in this game. UNLV does have an edge in projected turnovers but San Diego State is a bit better in special teams and this game should be very competitive with my math model projecting just a 24 yards edge for UNLV. The oddsmakers obviously haven't adjusted for Omar Clayton being out and my math model favors UNLV by just 3 points. I come up with a fair line of 7 points in this game if I use a compensated points margin model (after adjusting for Lindley and Clausen at quarterback and for San Diego State's worse recent form defensively), so there is simply no way to justify a double-digit line. When researching this game I found myself a bit concerned about how a 1-10 team would play in the final game of the season. Would they simply throw in the towel and give up? I searched my database for the answer and found that teams with 1 or 0 wins for the season are actually 19-3-1 ATS since 1989 as an underdog of 7 points or more I their final game of the season when facing a conference opponent with a losing record – and the record was even better for teams that allowed 42 points or more the previous week. With no evidence that San Diego State is going to give up, I see no reason not to play the Aztecs based on the line value. I'll assume the fair line should be 7 points rather than even as my math model projects. If the line should be 7 points then San Diego State has a very profitable 60.7% chance of covering at +11 ½ points and 57.5% chance of covering at +10 points, so I'll take San Diego State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Indiana 24 PURDUE (-12.0) 30
09:00 AM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
Indiana has had more than their share of injuries this season on both sides of the ball, but the Hoosiers are healthy at the quarterback position and the offensive line is healthier than it's been in weeks, so the Hoosiers should perform up to their potential offensively. Despite the injuries, Indiana has actually been average offensively this season, averaging 5.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Purdue is only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team), so the Hoosiers should move the ball at a decent rate. Purdue coach Joe Tiller, coaching his final game, has reinstated Curtis Painter as the starting quarterback now that he is healthy again and that move should help a struggling Boilermakers' offense that has scored 17 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games. I rate Purdue's attack at just 0.3 yppl worse than average with Painter at quarterback, which gives the Boilermakers a slight advantage over a banged up Indiana defense that rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average with their current personnel (I assume LB Patterson will play this week, but CB Council will not – although he is 50/50). Purdue's overall advantage from the line of scrimmage is not that significant and the Boilermakers are not good in special teams (they've allowed 3 punt return TD's). Purdue should not be favored by double-digits in this game and Indiana applies to a solid 158-77-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is based on Indiana's projected success running the ball against a soft Purdue defensive front (my math model projects 205 rushing yards at 5.7 yards per rushing play for the Hoosiers). I'll consider Indiana Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Oregon St. 27 ARIZONA (-2.5) 24
04:00 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
Oregon State's season opening fluke loss at Stanford (they out-gained Stanford 490 yards at 6.0 yards per play to 306 yards at 4.9 yppl, but were -3 in turnovers) is the Beavers' only bad loss of the season, as their other two losses were on the road against a top-10 Penn State team and on the road against unbeaten Utah, who is also a top-10 team. As you know Oregon State has also beaten USC and beat a good Cal team on the road last week, so they are certainly capable of winning here in Tucson. Arizona is a very good team, but the Wildcats' defensive lapse at Oregon last week (55 points and 510 yards allowed at 9.1 yppl) is not a good omen for them this week. Arizona applies to a very negative 7-47-2 ATS subset of a 123-231-7 ATS situation that is based on that poor defensive performance. My math model actually favors Arizona by 3 points, but the situation is strong enough for me to consider Oregon State a Strong Opinion at +1 or more.

Strong Opinion
FLORIDA INTL. (-6.5) 30 UL Monroe 18
04:00 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
Florida International has quietly gone 6-2-1 ATS this season and the Panthers still appear to be underrated. FIU's defense has carried the team this season, allowing just 5.1 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive unit, and only the good offensive units of Iowa and UL Lafayette have averaged more than 5.2 yppl against the Panthers. Monroe has a decent offense by Sun Belt standards but the Warhawks are 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively on the national scale and are at a 0.7 yppl disadvantage in this game. While Florida International's stingy defense deserves the praise, the offense has been getting better and has averaged 5.8 yppl in 5 Sun Belt games (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Monroe's horrible defense has allowed 6.7 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average team, but I rate that unit at 1.1 yppl worse than average after dampening the affect of the 12.1 yppl that they allowed to UL Lafayette (which skewed their average). FIU is actually 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively for the season and I'll use that rating instead of their better recent number in an effort to be conservative. Either way, Florida International has an advantage when they have the ball against ULM's porous defense, so the Panthers are the better team from the line of scrimmage regardless of which team has the ball and they are also better in special teams and projected turnovers. My math model favors FIU by 12 points in this game and I'll consider Florida International a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
SITUATIONAL GAME OF YEAR

I'm taking the points with TENNESSEE. Its certainly been a disappointing season for the Volunteers and they hit a new low by losing vs. Wyoming last time out. Conversely, Vanderbilt has exceeded expectations, winning their sixth game last week. However, as you know, much of that can be thrown out the window when two instate rivals collide. While Vanderbilt has had the better season, Tennessee still arguably has more talent. Of course, that's been the case for about as long as anyone can remember. Indeed, the Vols are 67-9-2 in the series since 1928, including a dominating 24-1 the last 25. In addition to the talent edge, the Vols have the schedule strongly in their favor. Vanderbilt comes off an emotional and fairly hard fought road win at Kentucky last week. That victory made them become bowl eligible for the first time in 25 years. In other words, if there is ever a spot for a "letdown," this could easily be it. On the other hand, while the Commodores have been celebrating, the Vols have stewing. That's because they were downright embarrassed by their performance vs. Wyoming. Even better, the Vols have had a bye since that loss, meaning that they have had an extra week to read the press clippings about how terrible they are. Of course, the extra rest has also given the Vols extra time to prepare while allowing a few key players time to get healthier. Fulmer was quoted as saying: "We had a chance to do some fundamental work while also physically and mentally getting some rest after nine straight football games." Speaking of Fulmer, he needs wins in each of the last two games to finish his career at Tennessee exactly 100 games over .500. While I look for the Vols to win outright, I'm happy to have the extra field goal to work with. For starters, last season's game was decided by just one point. Additionally, it should be noted that the Commodores are 1-4 SU/ATS (4-11 L15) the last five times that they played a game with an over/under line ranging from +3 to -3. During the same stretch, the Vols were 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS when playing a game with a line in that range. Look for the extra week off to pay dividends here as the Vols show some pride and bounce back with a huge effort against a team they have dominated for a century. *situational GOY


BEN BURNS
PERSONAL FAVORITE

I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. I won with the Eagles in last year's meeting, using that play as my top ACC play from 2007. In addition to being on the road, that was the first game of the season for the Demon Deacons. The Deacons have had an awful lot of wins since that time and I feel that they're a better team, particularly now that they'll be on their home field. Conversely, while the Eagles have played well their last couple of games, without Matt Ryan, I don't feel that they're as strong a team, as they were for last season's meeting - at least not on offense. Note that Boston College QB Chris Crane has 13 interceptions on the season. On the other hand, Wake Forest's Riley Skinner has been picked off just five times. Both teams are excellent defensively. The Deacons have been stronger on that side of the ball in conference play though. Wake Forest is holding ACC foes to 17.1 points per game. On the other hand, Boston College is allowing 27 points in conference play. The Deacons have been superb when facing quality teams the past few years. In fact, they're 13-6 ATS their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. They're also 9-3 ATS their last 12 games when playing with a line ranging from +3 to -3. With the support of the home crowd behind them, look for the Deacons to improve on those numbers this afternoon. *Personal Favorite





BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT

I'm laying the points with OKLAHOMA. Many people will look at this matchup and think to themselves, "The Red Raiders beat the Longhorns and the Longhorns beat the Sooners, therefore the Red Raiders will cover vs. the Sooners." It's not that easy though and that's not the way that one should be approaching this matchup. The Red Raiders win over Texas was rather fortunate and it came at home. Conversely, Oklahoma faced Texas at the Cotton Bowl. Big difference! The Sooners have been virtually unbeatable at home for years and they've outscored opponents by more than 30 points per game here this season. While the Sooners are 12-4-1 ATS their last 17 home lined games, the Red Raiders are 4-10-1 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 point range. The Sooners come in with a score to settle, as the Red Raiders defeated them last year. In addition to playing at home, Texas Tech was someone fortunate in that game as Oklahoma QB Bradford was knocked out with a concussion. Bradford should be around the whole four quarters this time and he's currently playing at the top of his game. Last week, Bradford threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns in a 66-28 crushing of Texas A&M. That gives him 38 TD passes for the season, which is two more than Texas Tech's Harrell, who has 36. The Sooners are 4-0 SU/ATS in four home games against Texas Tech when Leach was the Red Raiders' coach. Each of those four victories came by double-digits and they came by an average of 21 points. Look for the revenge-minded Sooners to deliver another convincing blowout here. *Big 12 Main Event





BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with LOUISVILLE. This is a must-win game for the Cardinals, if they want any reasonable shot at making it to a bowl game. It's also their home finale. Additionally, they're looking to avenge a 38-31 loss suffered at West Virginia last season. In other words, the Cardinals have plenty of motivation. Yes, the Cardinals have lost three in a row. However, two of those losses came by eight points or less and two came on the road. Prior to that, they'd won three in a row, including a victory vs. a very good South Florida team. While the Cardinals have gone through a disappointing stretch, the Mountaineers aren't as good as they have been in recent seasons either. The Mountaineers are coming off a bye. Prior to that, like Louisville, they are coming off a close loss vs. Cincinnati. That was at home but it's also worth noting that the Mountaineers are also just 1-2 on the road. As mentioned, the Cardinals gave the Mountaineers everything they could handle last year. This year, Louisville has arguably a better defense while West Virginia's offense isn't as potent. Playing their home finale, in front of a "black out," look for the Cards to rise to the occasion with a massive effort, taking the game down to the wire and earning at least the cover. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

NESS


25-ariz,

15-okla, Utah, Pur



*** ADDING ***


7* Revenge Rout

TCU

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al - Final for Saturday

ncaaf
4* Nevada+7
3* Tennessee+3
3* Tulsa-28
3* Memphis-5
3* North Carolina-11
3* Houston-16.5
3* Utah-7
1* Hawaii-23

ncaab
3* East Carolina
3* Evansville
1* Georgetown
1* Marquette

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our member selection is on the Michigan Wolverines plus the points over Ohio State. This is certainly one of the current Top 3 rivalries -- if not the overall #1 rivalry. And, absent any worthwhile statistics to the contrary, I'll always take a shot with a revenging underdog in a huge rivalry game. In this series, revenging underdogs are a solid 10-6 ATS since 1980, including 7-1 ATS when getting more than 4 points. Take Michigan. Good luck, as always...Al

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our member selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers plus the points over Clemson. Last week, UVa dropped its second straight game, 28-17 at Wake Forest, and Al Groh's men are now 5-5 on the year. Clemson also is 5-5, and the winner of this game will have achieved Bowl Eligibility status. Let's play on the Cavaliers here, as Virginia is 17-1 ATS at home vs. ACC Conference foes, provided Virginia lost its previous game, did not cover the spread in that loss, and is now NOT laying 3 or more points. Take Virginia. Good luck, as always...Al

At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our member selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions over Michigan State. The Spartans come into this afternoon's ballgame off 3 consecutive Big 10 Conference wins, but teams off three straight conference wins are a poor 83-147 ATS since 1980, if they're on the road against an opponent off a SU win, in which it scored more than 30 points. With PSU in off a 34-7 victory last week against Indiana, we'll take Joe Paterno's men to blow out MSU on Saturday. Good luck, as always...Al

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT


Foots:
Chairman- Oklahoma
Millionaire- Utah
Money Maker- Tennessee
No Limit- Nevada
Insiders Circle- Arizona
Billionaire- Wyoming

Hoops:
Millionaire- Missouri St
No Limit- Cleveland St

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
5 okla
4 nc st, fla atl, tenn
3 cinc, miss, ark

[Mr. IWS]

Saturday College Best Bet
**EVANSVILLE (-6) over Buffalo
05:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 744
Both of these teams return all 5 starters from last year’s team, but Buffalo’s top returning player Andy Robinson is serving a suspension and hasn’t played this season (and won’t play tonight). Evansville qualifies in a very good 131-61-3 ATS early season situation in addition to a couple of other pretty good angles. My ratings favor Evansville by 5 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Evansville in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less.

Saturday Basketball Opinion
UC RIVERSIDE (-2) over Northern Arizona
UC Riverside is improved this season and the Highlanders apply to a very strong 90-26-1 ATS early season indicator while Northern Arizona applies to a negative 34-95-2 ATS situation. Unfortunately, my ratings favor Northern Arizona by 1 point in this game and I’m not going to give up the line value to force a Best Bet. I will still lean with UC Riverside based on the strong situations and I’d take UC Riverside in a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog.