11-23-08

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' NFL 9* (top-rated Week 12 game)


New England Patriots


Larry Ness' Wk 12 Las Vegas Insider: 8-2 TY


Dallas Cowboys

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on the Jets and Titans to finish UNDER the total. The Titans have already seen the UNDER go 3-0 this month and I feel that this afternoon's number provides plenty of value with the UNDER once again. For the season, the Titans are allowing a mere 13.1 yards per game (best in the NFL!) and just 281.8 total yards per game. Despite the Titans' dominant defensive stats and their recent tendency to play low-scoring games, we're getting a generous number due to the Jets having played back to back high-scoring games. Note that even with those recent results, the Jets have still seen the UNDER go a profitable 10-6-1 over the past 12 months. Last week's result notwithstanding, the Jets have still also seen the UNDER go 7-2 the last nine times that they faced a team with a winning record during the second half of the season. Yes, the Jets have been putting up big numbers lately. However, they've also been held to 14 points or less on three different occasions this season. In other words, they are capable of being slowed down. Of course, they haven't faced a defense this good yet this season, either. The Jets' defense isn't too shabby either. In fact, they enter this game with 34 sacks. That's the second most in the NFL and six more than Tennessee, which ranks third in the AFC at 28. These teams faced each other in both 2006 and again in 2007. Both meetings produced less than 40 combined points, including last year's 10-6 win by the Titans. Both teams run the ball more than the league average and both teams are also great at stopping the run. I expect that to translate to another defensive battle this season. *AFC TOY




BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with SAN DIEGO. Even if you didn't play the game, by now you've probably heard about San Diego's game last week. Pittsburgh scored a touchdown on the final play but the refs said it didn't count and that ruling allowed the Chargers to cover. While that was a very fortunate call for San Diego bettors (myself included) it should be noted that the Chargers actually played very well, at least on the defensive side of the ball. They traveled to Pittsburgh, one of the toughest venues in the league, and played the Steelers tough the entire way. In fact, the didn't even allow the Steelers' offense to score a touchdown. While Pittsburgh backers had every right to be angry last week, the fact was that it would have been a miraculous cover for them, had the refs gotten the ruling correct. Now the Chargers return home where they've been much better. While last week's loss dropped the Chargers to 1-5 on the road, they're still a respectable 3-1 at home, including 3-0 their last three here. Note that two of those were blowout "primetime" victories against winning teams. The Chargers crushed Brett Favre and the Jets 48-29 on Monday night back in Week 3 and a few weeks later they came back and dismantled the Patriots 30-10 on Sunday Night. Dating back to last season, the Chargers are now 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS in 22 games here since the start of the 2006 season. The Chargers are the type of team that matches up well against Indianapolis. Including a pair of victories against the Colts last season, the Chargers are also a highly profitable 6-1 SU/ATS against teams from the AFC South during that stretch. Looking back further and we find the Chargers are 12-2 ATS (11-3 SU) their last 14 against AFC South teams. Look for them to improve on those numbers here with another convincing win and cover on primetime. *Sunday Night GOY






BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. The Redskins come in with the much better record and they badly need to win this game. That being said, they haven't been playing well offensively and this is an extremely difficult scheduling spot. Not only are the Skins coming off a huge Sunday night game vs. the hated Cowboys but they've also got another huge "revenge" game vs. the defending champion Giants on deck. Asking the Skins to lay points on the road in this situation is asking an awful lot. Note that the Skins haven't won a game by double-digits all season and that two of their six victories came by a field goal or less. Additionally, note that the Redskins have managed a mere 449 total yards (228 and 221) of offense over their last two games. Lastly, note that Washington is a money-burning 2-10-1 ATS its last 13 games against teams with a losing record. At 2-8, the Seahawks certainly qualify. However, I still believe that they're a better team that their record indicates. The Seahawks also believe that they're a better team than their record shows. QB Hasselbeck was quoted as saying: "I don't think we feel that way about ourselves," said Hasselbeck. We feel like we're a better team..." Speaking of Hasselbeck, he should be highly motivated for a strong performance against Jim Zorn, his former QB coach. Despite failing to cover last week, the Seahawks are still 3-2 ATS their last five games and they're now 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were coming off consecutive SU losses. Having defeated the Redskins by a 35-14 count last September should give the Seahawks some added confidence here. I'll grab the points but I'm expecting an upset. *NFC GOW





BEN BURNS

I'm playing on MIAMI. I don't have to look at the consensus sites to tell you that the majority of the betting public will be backing the visiting Patriots here. After all, the Dolphins pounded the Patriots 38-13 at Foxboro and the general feeling is that they aren't capable of a repeat performance. I don't expect another blowout either. However, I do believe that the Dolphins have an excellent shot at coming away with another victory. Note that the Dolphins are coming off back to back close victories now and have won four straight. Conversely, the Patriots are off an OT loss and have now lost two of their last three. New England did win here last season. However, the Dolphins upset the Patriots the previous year and also in 2004. The Dolphins were +3.5 and +10 point underdogs in those games. They're a much better team now while the same can hardly be said of the current banged-up version of the Patriots. Looking back further and we find Miami at 29-8 the last 37 series meetings here. This is the biggest game played here in years and I expect the Dolphins to be extremely fired up. Look for them to shock the betting public and defeat the Pats for the second time this season.





BEN BURNS

I'm playing on Arizona and New York to finish UNDER the total. The Cardinals have put up impressive offensive numbers this season. This high number gives us plenty of room to work with though and this afternoon they'll be matched up against an excellent New York defense. The defending champs come in allowing an average of only 17 points and 264 total yards per game. While the offense has gotten all the headlines, the Cardinals defense has also been better than advertised. The Cards are allowing just 18.7 points per game at home on the season and through their last three games they've held opponents to an average of a mere 254 total yards of offense. While the Cards have seen the UNDER go 4-2 the last six times that they played a home game with an over/under line in the 45.5 to 49 range, the Giants have seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 11-1 the last 12 times that they played a road game with a total in the same range. Look for those numbers to improve as this afternoon's final score proves lower than expected once again. *NFC TOW

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al Offshore Steam Play Falcons

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang
Sunday 25 Dime - Colts (if your book has +3 you buy the 1/2 and get 3 1/2. If your book has +2 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and get +3. Assure yourself of +3 1/2 and +3)

10 Dime 6-point teaser - Vikings / Niners

analysis by 11 am Eastern

FREE - Arizona Cardinals (Analysis will be on daily video when made available)

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL

Sunday
1* South Florida-3

NFL
4* Arizona+3
3* Minnesota+2.5
3* Chicago-8
3* Tennessee-5
3* San Diego-2.5
3* Atlanta-1
1* Tampa-8.5
1* Oakland+10

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Massive Mismatch- CBB

Xavier


Weekend Wipeout Winner- NBA

Detroit Pistons


Las Vegas Insider- CBB

UCONN

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
4 ne
3 tenn, tb, gaints, wash, sf, conn (ncaa)

[Mr. IWS]

dr bob
3 sd, tenn, okl

[Mr. IWS]

spritzer
tenn, kc, sf, ariz, okl, sea, atlante

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Chairman- Lions
Millionaire- Cardinals
Money Maker- Chiefs
No Limit- Seahawks
Insiders Circle- Titans
Billionaire- Dolphins
Perfect Play - Chargers