11-24-08

PickLogic’s Pick:

Game: San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies
Sport: National Basketball Association
Date: Monday, November 24, 2008
Time: 5:05 PM Pacific time
Selection: UNDER the "total" of 177, -110
Wager: 1 unit

Break your Bookie

Game of the Year !!!
There is no doubt in our mind about this game. We are so confident that we are risking 3 losses. If we win it counts as three 10 star plays and a loss vice versa. Absolutely pound the Saints.

GAME OF THE YEAR

NFL

10 Stars
SAINTS -1

LuckyDaySports

Monday's Comp Play

20 unit

Green Bay @ New Orleans

Take Green Bay +1

LOGICAL APPROACH

Best of the NFL Totals

Green Bay/New Orleans OVER 51 ½

Nelly's

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2008

NEW ORLEANS (-3) Green Bay (52½) 7:35 PM
The Packers had a great game plan last week and finally were able to
run the ball. Green Bay has five losses but all came against teams that
are .500 or better. The Saints have not won consecutive games all
season long but this will be the first home since mid-October for New
Orleans. The Saints have not had success in the home favorite role
Green Bay ’s defense continues to make big plays. A lot of points could
be scored here and the dog makes sense. PACKERS BY 4

POINTWISE

MONDAY
NEW ORLEANS 27 - Green Bay 26 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- First HG for the Saints
since Oct 12th. Bring top-ranked "O" into this one, but just a 5-5 record, as their overland game ranks 26th, & their "D" ranks 24th. Check Brees with 1,027 PYs last 3 outings, but Saints being outrushed in their last 4 games. The Pack has covered 5 straight, & in off snapping 2-game SU slide (3 & 1 pt losses), with that 37-3 wipeout of the Bears. Rodgers: 22-of-30, & 200 RYs, to boot (Grant: 145). The Packers are on a 15-5 ATS road run, while the Saints are 9-18 ATS at home, off a SU/ATS win. The spread is truly minuscule, but we will call this even closer.

STATFOX

11/24/2008 (225) GREEN BAY at (226) NEW ORLEANS
I brought up the term “false favorites” before. New Orleans could
easily apply in this situation, as teams with defenses as poor as the
Saints never make for good chalk. HC Sean Payton’s team is giving up
a healthy 24.9 PPG and 5.7 YPP. The Packers have thrived on such
teams under Mike McCarthy: McCarthy is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. bad
defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game as the coach of
GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 26.7, OPPONENT
14.2 - (Rating = 1*). Green Bay showed its makeup last week in routing
Chicago, as McCarthy was able to instill a sense of urgency after losses
to Tennessee and Minnesota. With a +6.4 Outplay Factor Rating, Green
Bay is climbing the charts quickly. Meanwhile, the Saints are in mediocre
land at +0.6. That tells me the wrong club is favored. Barring turnover
concerns, the Packers should get it done here.
Play: Green Bay +2.5

TOP STATFOX POWER RATING EDGES:

1. NEW ENGLAND (+2.5) over MIAMI 16
2. GREEN BAY (+3) over NEW ORLEANS 13
3. JACKSONVILLE (-1.5) over MINNESOTA 6.5


TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:
1. GREEN BAY (+3) over NEW ORLEANS 9
2. TAMPA BAY (-9) over DETROIT 7
3. PITTSBURGH (-11) over CINCINNATI 5

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

GREEN BAY at NEW ORLEANS (Monday, November 24)...Saints
“over” 19-9 last 28 since late ‘06, and 3-1 as Superdome chalk TY
after subpar 3-11 mark in role past two seasons. Pack “over” 12-
4 last 14 on road. Pack also 7-1 last 8 as road dog since McCarthy
arrived in ‘06. Tech edge-“Over” and Packers, based on
“totals” and team trends

SYSTEMS SPOTLIGHT

NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-

GREEN BAY over New Orleans (11/24).

DATAMAN ( GILBERT)

Monday
NO

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

4 BEST BET
NEW ORLEANS over Green Bay by 13
Both teams line up under the Monday night lights off double-digit wins
and covers last week, jockeying for position in this year’s playoff picture
with four other teams each with 5 wins on the season. Thus, this is a
crucial game for both clubs. The 5-5 Pack has tanked on the road in
November in games off a double-digit win, going 2-11 ATS. Meanwhile,
thanks to their No. 1 ranked offense, the 5-5 Saints have managed to
outgain all but two foes in total yardage this season. With New Orleans
looking to ‘Prove It All Night’, expect the Saints to improve to 5-1 SU
and ATS at home in the Dome this season. N’Awlins, in a Brees

JB'S COMPUTER PLAYS

Monday, November 24
Green Bay Packers +2½

Norm Hitzges

NFL

Triple Play--Green Bay +2.5 vs New Orleans

Single Play--Green Bay/New Orleans Over 51.5

Spylock

NFL
DateTime Game Pick Stars

11/24/08 Green Bay Packers Green Bay Packers +2.5 3
8:40 PM New Orleans Saints -2.5

Wild Bill

Packers +3 (5 units)
Over 53 Packers-Saints (5 units)

Sixth Sense

NEW ORLEANS –2.5 Green Bay 51.5

Packers destroyed Chicago last week 37-3 and out gained the Bears 6.3yppl to 4.3yppl. Most surprising in that game was they rushed for 200 yards at 5.3ypr and held the Bears to just 4.3ypr. They also out passed Chicago 7.6yps to 4.4yps. The Saints went to KC and defeated the Chiefs 30-20, out gaining them 5.8yppl to 5.0yppl, including out passing them 7.4yps to 4.9yps. They were out rushed in the game 5.2ypr to 3.7ypr. For the season, the Packers are now average rushing the ball, averaging 4.0ypr against 4.0ypr. But, they average 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl overall. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.1ypr but the Saints don’t rush the ball well, averaging just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr. GB allows just 5.1yps against 6.0yps and is getting better and healthier in the secondary. They allow 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl overall. The Saints average 7.9yps against 6.2yps and 6.3yppl against 5.4yppl overall. On defense they allow 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl overall. NO qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 79-34-6. Both teams actually qualify in a scheduling situation as long as this line is less than three points. If it is three points or higher, the Saints would not qualify. That situation is 65-25-2. The Saints also qualify in a negative rushing situation, which is 114-47-8. Numbers favor the Saints by just 1.5 points and predict about 57 points. The Saints are just 1-5 SU this year against .500 or better teams. The Packers are 3-5 SU in the same role but three of those five losses were by three points or less. The situations favoring GB are a little stronger as is the value. I have gone against GB three weeks in a row now and lost each of those weeks, although the Packers lost two of those three games but still managed to cover the spread. The Packers strength is their pass defense and throwing the ball. That matches up well against the Saints. Also, GB seems to have gained some momentum last week with their victory over the Bears and with their health getting better this is a good spot for them here. Total is a little too high for me to bite on the over. GREEN BAY 33 NEW ORLEANS 27

BEST BETS

YTD 38-20-1 +48.00%

3% GREEN BAY +2.5

Sunshine Forecast
==================
NFL Computer Predictions


Monday, November 24, 2008

Green Bay Packers (+2½) at New Orleans Saints

Power Rating Projection:

Green Bay Packers 26 New Orleans Saints 25


Statistical Projections

Green Bay Packers 29
Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 246
Turnovers: 1

New Orleans Saints 28
Rushing Yards: 102
Passing Yards: 289
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Green Bay Packers 35 New Orleans Saints 34

NBA
Write-up


Monday, November 24

Hot Teams
-- 76ers won five of their last six games.
-- Bucks are 9-1-1 vs spread in their last eleven games. Magic won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Rockets won four of their last five games.
-- Spurs won four of their last five games.
-- Portland is 4-0 at home, winning by 1-2-4-42 points.
-- Hornets won last two games, but covered just two of last nine.

Cold Teams
-- Bobcats lost four in row, six of last seven games.
-- Miami is 1-5 vs spread in the game following a win.
-- Grizzlies lost six of their last seven games.
-- Bulls are 0-7 on the road (3-4 vs spread). Jazz lost four of their last five games.
-- Kings lost last five games, by 2-2-15-21-10 points.
-- Clippers lost 11 of their first 13 games.

Totals
-- Under is 10-1-1 in Charlotte games this season.
-- Seven of last ten Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Houston games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Memphis games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Chicago games went over the total.
-- Last three Sacramento games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Clipper games went over the total; seven of the last nine Hornet games stayed under.

NHL
Write-up


Monday, November 24

Hot teams
-- Flyers won last four games, outscoring foes 13-7.
-- Islanders won four of their last five games.
-- Hurricanes won three of their last four games.
-- Washington won six of its last seven games.
-- Red Wings won their last five games, outscoring foes 20-10. Canucks won three in row, nine of last 12 games.
-- Colorado won four of last six games, with last four wins in SO.

Cold teams
-- Rangers lost their last two games, allowing ten goals. Coyotes lost last five games, outscored 19-10.
-- Dallas Stars lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Canadiens lost six of their last nine games.
-- Panthers lost three of their last four games.
-- Minnesota lost its last two games, scoring total of three goals.
-- Ducks lost five of their last seven games.

Totals
-- Three of last four Phoenix road games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Dallas games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Montreal games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Florida games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 9-0-2 in last eleven Minnesota games.
-- Eight of last ten Detroit games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Anaheim games stayed under the total.

NFL


Monday, November 24

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GREEN BAY (5 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 5) - 11/24/2008, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 53-78 ATS (-32.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 53-78 ATS (-32.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 39-61 ATS (-28.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Green Bay: 7-0 ATS in dome games
New Orleans: 31-53 ATS as home favorite
Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay

Handicapper: John Ryan Sports
Sport: NHL Hockey
Game: Detroit Red Wings @ Vancouver Canucks - Monday November 24, 2008 10:05 pm
Pick: 1 unit MONEYLINE: Vancouver Canucks +140



Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Vancouver (NHL) – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 41-25 making 25.1 units since 1996 with the average play a +122.2 dog. Play against road favorites against the money line off a road win by 2 goals or more in November games. Vancouver off to a fast start this season and are in position for a solid home win against one of the elite teams in the NHL. Note that Vancouver is 8-2 against the money line (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a victorious record this season. Detroit is also playing their third straight road game placing them into a difficult situation of 140-95 against the money line, but losing -47.4 units. Vancouver has a strong offense that is not relying on the power play. They have scored 66 goals in 21 games and 17 goals in their last 5 games. They are only converting 16.7% of their PP opportunities, but they have had more than twice as many PP than opponents. Vancouver has allowed a PP conversion percentage of just 11.9 on only 42 chances for 5 goals. Detroit’s PP is working at a very high level converting 33% of their 81 opportunities, but Vancouver has the PP killing unit that matches up very well against a road weary Detroit team. Moreover, Detroit has allowed opponents to convert PP opportunities at a poor 22.2% of the time. Take Vancouver.

Pointwise Newsletter Basketball Selections
NBA Key Releases (Rated 1-4 with "1" being the highest)
2--Utah over Chicago 110-93
Best of the Rest--Philadelphia

NCAA Best Bets---
Bowling Green (+) over Ohio State 67-68
San Francisco over Santa Barbara 78-66
Notre Dame over Indiana 91-69

Rocco Spacamuro 100* N.Orleans -2.5

3g

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NFL MNF 10* GAME of the MONTH

New Orleans Saints

DOC

3 Unit Play.Take Under 51 in Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints

A must win game for both teams takes place on Monday night in the Big Easy. Anytime you see a 50-plus total in the NFL it usually means we will have a strong play on the under as this is once again the case. With the clocks running on first downs and restarting on out of bounds plays it is tough for NFL games to reach fifty points. The Packers have went over this posted today just one time in their last six games and we will not worry about who wins this pickem game and just collect with the under. New Orleans 27, Green Bay 21

Westcoast Sports

Notre Dame over Indiana

HalfBets - Monday Night FREE (NFL + NBA)

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All Lines brought to you by BetUS.com
------NFL---------
PICK: UNDER 51.5 (5*)

------NBA---------
PICK: Charlotte 1H +2.5 (5*)
PICK: Portland/Sacramento OVER 202.5 (5*)

Las Vegas Sport Picks

2* Saints pk
4* NO/GB over 51

2* Islanders/Canadiens over 5.5 even

1* Bobcats +140
2* Texas -10
3* UCONN -4
3* San Francisco -1.5
3* LaSalle -3
3* Jax St/UMAS over 155
3* Notre Dame -15
4* Spurs/Grizzlies under 177
4* Magic -9
5* FAU/Davidson over 154

[Mr. IWS]

igz1 sports

Monday Action !!
Sunday Recap: 1-0 CBB (+80) pts : 1-1 NHL (+12) pts : 2-4 NFL (-202) pts

CBB
4* La Salle -1.5 (-110)
3* Over 154 (-110) Montana St vs Boise State

MNF
3* Over 51 (-110) GreenBay vs New Orleans

NHL
3* Carolina +100
3* Under 5.5 (-120) NY Islanders vs Montreal
3* NY Rangers -150
3* Philadelphia -140

[Mr. IWS]

jeff benton
Monday plays
15 dime over
10 dime Greenbay

[Mr. IWS]

adam meyer

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5* no/gb under 51.5
best bet

[Mr. IWS]

ANDRE GOMES

1* 76ers -3
1* Miami over 186
1* Spurs over 177

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis

40 Dime- Green Bay

[Mr. IWS]

atslocks.com

Packers @ Saints Over/Under 51: Under 51 (5 unit play)

Philadelphia @ Charlotte +3: Charlotte +3 (5 unit play)

Syracuse @ Florida -4: Florida -4 (5 unit play)

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Akmens Full Card

Cbb

10* Florida Inter. Under 128.5

10* Florida -4

10* Kansas -6

Nfl

10* Greenbay Pick

Nba

10* Bulls Under 202

Nhl

10* Anaheim -160

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

NFL Football
Saints -1 over Packers
New Orleans will not have much of a running game tonight, but lucky for them they have one of the best passing attacks in the league and the Packers run defense has not been too hot this season. New Orleans finally will be playing in a home game in well over a month. The Saints need this game to stay alive while the Packers are going to be in the playoff hunt well into the final few weeks of the season as that division is in a three way tie. Drew Brees should be the difference maker tonight. This should be a great game. Take the Saints.

College Football
No plays today.

NBA Basketball
Clippers +5.5 over Hornets

NCAA Basketball
Washington +6 over Kansas

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Bowling Green Falcons @ Ohio State Buckeyes - Monday November 24, 2008 8:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Bowling Green Falcons +12.5 (-110) (Normal)

Well, we don't take the "easy" plays and they always have to be the "homer" selections such as the call with Missouri beating USC Outright, or Niagara over Villanova, TCU over Clemson, Long Beach State over Wisconsin or Utah Outright over Ole Miss. We go based on my spreadsheets numbers and my simple philosophy of taking dogs that can win outright. Now, is Bowling Green going to win outright, probably not. But, here is what you need to know about Bowling Green. Folks, this team is good and they are very much under the radar. Trust me, the Gophers of Minnesota found out when this team took them to the wire and easily covered as 15 point chalks. Why do you think they are not a 15 point chalk here agianst Ohio State? Look at this team's early stats as they are averaging 75 points a game in the early season as they have no problem putting up points: This team is led by seniors Brian Moten and Nate Miller as this team returns 10 lettermen and plenty of experience. In fact, the five guys who essentially play the most minutes for this team all have balanced scoring and average in the double-digits with Moten at 15.3 points per game down to Erik Marschall who averages 11 points per game. This team is balanced, well coached and remember, Ohio State had a cupcake game in their first game and BG comes in this game having faced the likes of Minnesota and are more in sync. Roll on with BG to lose by 7 according to my spreadsheets here. Cheers to us starting the season 9-4 in College Ball.


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Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Chicago Bulls @ Utah Jazz - Monday November 24, 2008 9:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) TOTAL: Over 202.5 (-105) (Play of the Day)

Lord, how bad do I want to take Utah here. The Jazz come off an ugly, ugly loss to the Spurs on the road, they return home to play the Bulls. They were just -4.5 favorites and the line quickly jumped to -6.5 and rightfully so as the Jazz are on a bounce-back here. But, if you take a look at Chicago's numbers, they are not a team that has back to back losses of covers typically and they come off an ATS loss to Denver. I will force myself to stay away as well because 65% are on Utah. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go over the posted total btw. The bottom line here for me is that I think Utah bounces-back from their loss at Phoenix and puts up a ton of points at home and who is to say that the Bulls aren't going to come out fired up from their loss at Denver? I expect both teams to shoot well and put up a ton of points here as the over is 4-0 for the Bulls when facing teams with a winning percentage of 60% or more meaning they show up against the better teams in the league and the Jazz are 4-0 to the over at home of late as well.


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Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: New Orleans Hornets @ Los Angeles Clippers - Monday November 24, 2008 10:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Los Angeles Clippers +5.5 (-110) (Normal)

Trust in thy handicapper. I know it seems scary to take the lowly 2-9 Clippers. But, hey, I've taken you on a ride when we took the likes of Long Beach State over Wisconsin, or the Twolves +10 over Detroit yesterday and they won outright at the Palace. Have faith. Look, New Orleans is not that good this year. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. This team is just not the team from last year. People have figured them out. Remember, this is the same New Orleans team that is just 7-5. This is the same New Orleans team that has 2 of those 7 wins against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the same team that lost Outright to the Kings at home by 9 points when they were favored by 13.5 points, the same team that lost to the Bobcats on the road by 7 points as 7 point favorites and the same team that lost to Houston and was down as much as 22 to the Lakers at home. The Clippers are a team that are getting better. Yea, I know they got drilled at New Jersey but there is a reason for that, it was the last game of the road trip and they were on a back to back. Before that, they nearly beat the Sixers on the road losing by just a point and beat the Thunder by 20. They likely get Randolph back for this game, have the likes of Baron Davis, Al Thronton, Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby who went 8/12 against the Nets for 18 points and their home crowd. I think the Clippers actually have a great shot at winning this game outright today and it goes with my principle, taking Dogs that can win outright. The Hornets are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games and 0-4 ATS when coming off a straight up win.

[Mr. IWS]

atslocks.com

Packers @ Saints Over/Under 51: Under 51 (5 unit play)

Philadelphia @ Charlotte +3: Charlotte +3 (5 unit play)

Syracuse @ Florida -4: Florida -4 (5 unit play)

[Mr. IWS]

Frank Patron

10000 Unit Monday Night Lock

New Orleans Saints -1.5

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club
3 Over 51 GB/NO
4 UCONN -5
3 N.O. (NBA) -5.5
ATS Financial Package
3 N.O. Saints +7
3 Heat +4
3 Florida -3.5

[Mr. IWS]

DOC

3 Unit Play.Take Under 51 in Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints

A must win game for both teams takes place on Monday night in the Big Easy. Anytime you see a 50-plus total in the NFL it usually means we will have a strong play on the under as this is once again the case. With the clocks running on first downs and restarting on out of bounds plays it is tough for NFL games to reach fifty points. The Packers have went over this posted today just one time in their last six games and we will not worry about who wins this pickem game and just collect with the under. New Orleans 27, Green Bay 21




DOC
NBA

3-Unit Play #713 Take New Orleans/LA Clippers OVER 10:30 p.m. EST, Monday) We had some significant overnight line movement on this one and the number has dropped to a point where we think there is nice value on the over here. New Orleans has played well offensively in their last two games, albeit against OKC, but they averaged 107 PPG in those two contests. Tonight they face a defense that gives up 101 PPG, on average. They surrendered 114 and 111 in their last two meetings with the Hornets and we think that New Orleans will surpass or at least get close to the Century Mark tonight and the Clippers will just have to make up the difference to put this one over the number. Five of the last seven meetings have gone over the posted number and that’s how we see this one playing out at Staples Center tonight.




DOC
NHL

3 Unit Play. #54 Take Philadelphia over Dallas (7:05 pm NHL Center Ice) The Stars will be without their captain Brendon Morrow and they will enter this game having lost two straight and five of their last six. The Flyers have won their last two home games and four straight overall. These two teams are heading in opposite directions and expect this trend to continue as we collect big with the home team.

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND'S 5* NBA BEST BET WINNER! (13-0 RUN)
Pick # 1 Philadelphia 76ers / Charlotte Bobcats Over 176 -110

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Lineback

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3-0 yesterday
9-0 last 2 weeks in the NFL

4* Teaser 6.5 pts -120 | [225] Green Bay +7.5 | [225-226] OVER 44.5

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Delaney
30 dime packers

Trace Adams
10 dime packers

[Mr. IWS]

kelso

25 UnitsPackers (+1) over Saints
8:30 PM -- Louisiana Superdome
Green Bay Packers by 6-7

3 units under

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass
NHL
50*Detroit

NFL
20*Green Bay

NCAAB
20*UConn
20*Kansas
50*Alabama

NBA
20*Houston/Miami under
50*Sacramento/Portland under

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp MNF

under 52 -110

Double Dime

[Mr. IWS]

teddy june


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Saints

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | NFL Side Triple-Dime Bet
226 NOS 1.0 (-110) Bodog vs 225 GBP
Analysis: **** NFL MNF 4* GAME of the MONTH ****

[Mr. IWS]

CHARLIE
500* NEW ORLEANS OVER

small plays
new orleans

basketball
santa clara
miami ohio
portland trailblazers