11-25-08

Dr Bob Free Opinions

BALL ST. (-10.5) 37 Western Mich 23
04:00 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, Nov-25 - Stats Matchup
Western Michigan is a good team by MAC standards, rating at 0.2 yppl better than average on offense and 0.4 yppl worse than average on defense, but Ball State is a good team by any standard. The Cardinals have averaged an impressive 7.2 yppl this season (against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and they rate at 1.0 yppl better than average offensively since losing star receiver Dante Love in week 4 against Indiana. Ball State is 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively, so Western Michigan should score a decent amount of points, but the Ball State has not allowed more than 24 points to any team all season and Ball State should score around their average of 37 points per game.

NORTHERN ILL (-3.0) 26 Navy 24
04:00 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, Nov-25 - Stats Matchup
Navy is turning to sophomore quarterback Ricky Dobbs to run the option attack and he looks like a better option than Jarod Bryant, who wasn’t as good reading defenses as injured starter Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada. Dobbs won’t run the attack as well as Kaheaku-Enhada either, but the Midshipmen should move the ball well enough to keep this game competitive against a solid Northern Illinois team that is 0.2 yppl worse than average on offense and average defensively. My math model favors Northern Illinois by 1 1/2 points, so I’ll lean slightly with the Middies plus the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Tuesday (from another site)

Larry's 7* MAC Showdown -WMU/BSU (7-1 run)

The Saints made it look easy last night, as has Larry the last three days. New Orleans' 51-29 win upped his three-day FB run to 7-1 (87.5% ATS) and tonight he has a another HUGE play in his favorite conference (he attended Ohio U). Be sure not to miss Larry's 7* MAC Showdown (WMU/BSU), as his 'ASSAULT' on the FB pointspread continues!



Western Michigan


Larry's Weekly Wipeout Winner:3-0 TY in CBB

When Larry calls for a "W-I-P-E-O-U-T," you want an invite to the party. Larry's on an 8-2-1 overall run in CBB since last Thursday and that includes Wipeout Winners on Mia-Fla (Fri) and Auburn (Sat). Those two wins make him a PERFECT 3-0 with Wipeout Winners TY in college hoops. The 'party' is set for tonight. RSVP now.


Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers



Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CBB: 8-2-1 run

Larry's 8-2-1 with his CBB plays the L5 days. However, it's often noted that Larry and his "unmatched" contacts have been providing winning selections on the net for years, in all sports. Larry's Insiders are 4-1 in all sports s/Thursday, after last night's 73-54 win on Kansas in CBB. "It pays to be on the inside with Larry." Want in?


Kansas Jayhawks

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's TUESDAY NIGHT BALL ST/W. MICHIGAN WINNER.

At 6 pm, our selection is on Western Michigan plus the points over Ball State.

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

Annil = West Mich

NBA GOM = Thunder

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

15 Dime Northern Illinois

FREE - Western Michigan

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Navy
Millionaire- Nebraska
Insiders Circle- Wisc Milw.

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with WESTERN MICHIGAN. The Cardinals have had a fantastic season. They've got one more serious test ahead of them though, as the Broncos are also a very strong team. The Broncos come in at 9-2 including a 6-1 record in the MAC. The lone loss was by 10 points at Central Michigan and the Broncos were playing their second straight road game, the only time they had to do so all season. You'll recall that the same Central Michigan team gave Ball State a very tough test last week. While the Cardinals are coming off that hard- fought road game and playing on a short week, the Broncos come in well-rested, having not played since Nov. 15th. That marked the Broncos third straight home game, so fatigue certainly shouldn't be a factor. In addition to the extra preparation time, the time off has given the Broncos time to get a few key players back in the lineup. We know this is a really big game for the Cardinals. The Broncos have a ton of motivation too though. For starters, a win would give them 10 wins in a season for the first time in school history. A victory would also assure them of at least a tie for the MAC West championship and possibly a berth in the MAC title game. Additionally, there's the revenge factor as Ball State won at Western Michigan (by 4 points) last season. There would certainly be no better way to get some payback than to be the team which spoiled the Cardinals' perfect season. Note that the Broncos returned a ton of starters from last year's team. Additionally, note that the Broncos won here at Muncie the last time (2006) that they faced the Cardinals here. The Broncos, who are allowing just 15.9 ppg and 332.4 total yards per game, have been solid as underdogs over the years, going 11-7-1 ATS their last 18 in that role. The last time they were getting points they defeated Illinois outright, a tougher non-conference opponent than Ball State defeated all season. I expect them to give their hosts all they can handle tonight and won't be surprised if they spoil their perfect season. *Annihilator





BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with OKLAHOMA CITY. Its been an extremely tough start in Oklahoma City for the team formerly known as the Sonics. Things have been so bad that the Thunder recently fired their coach. Scott Brooks replaced P.J. Carlesimo on Saturday on an interim basis. The Thunder responded positively to the change in Brooks' first game, a Sunday affair at New Orleans. While they still lost, the Thunder played the Hornets tough and earned their first pointspread cover since 11/10. After the game, Brooks was quoted as saying: "We shared the ball a lot better tonight and we played with a lot more energy. Our guys are tired right now, and it's a good tired. They played with the kind of energy our fans can be proud of. This was a tough day, with the team in some tough circumstances, and they came to play and leave it on the court." Returning home, I expect the Thunder to give another inspired effort for their new coach. The Suns' last four games have come against Detroit, Utah, LA (Lakers) and Portland. All four of those teams have winning records. Off those "big" games, it should be fairly easy for the Suns to overlook the lowly Thunder here. Note that Phoenix is 0-3 ATS its last three games against teams with a losing record and a money-burning 33-42-3 (44%) ATS against losing teams since the start of the 2006 season. Its also worth noting that the Suns were just 2-6-1 ATS during that stretch when listed as road favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Yes, the Suns did sweep the Sonics last season. However, a closer look shows that Seattle went 3-0-1 ATS in those games. The Suns won the games by an average of less than eight points per game and no games were decided by greater than 12 points. The Suns have played seven road games this season and only one of those resulted in a victory of more than 10 points. I expect them to have their hands full again this evening as the newly energized Thunder earn at least another cover. *Western Conf. GOM