11-27-08

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's Week 13 Las Vegas Insider (9-2 TY)

How much better can it get? Larry and his "unmatched" are 9-2 (81.8%) with his exclusive NFL Las Vegas Insiders TY. His complete DOMINATION of the NFL pointspread continues, as Larry's offering up a Thanksgiving treat! His NFL Insider for Wk 13 is on one of the three Thanksgiving Day games. "It pays to be on the inside with Larry." Want in?


Philadelphia Eagles

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

2 Star Selection
Seattle (+12.5) 22 DALLAS 25
27-Nov-08 01:15 PM Pacific Time
Dallas is obviously a much better team now that they have Tony Romo firing balls down the field, but the Cowboys are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of more than 10 points – all of them with Romo at quarterback. Another letdown by Dallas is very likely in this game, as the Cowboys apply to a negative 70-144-3 ATS situation while Seattle applies to a very strong 50-11-1 ATS situation. Those angles actually intersect quite often and the record is an incredible 27-1-1 ATS for the dog when they both apply to the same game, including a straight up win by Oakland at Denver last week. My math model favors Dallas by 13 ½ points, but my other math model favors Dallas by just 12 points, so the line is certainly fair in this game. The Seahawks have Matt Hasselbeck back at quarterback and they’ve played very competitively in recent weeks, losing by margins of 2 points, 6 points and 3 points to 3 teams with winning records (Miami, Arizona, and Washington) and Seattle is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 8 points or more under coach Mike Holmgren, including 2-0 ATS this season. I’ll take Seattle in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 3-Stars at +13 or more.

NFL Strong Opinions

DETROIT (+11.0) 17 Tennessee 23
27-Nov-08 09:30 AM Pacific Time
Detroit is still winless, but the Lions are also 4-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season and they apply to a very strong 49-9-1 ATS home underdog situation in addition to a couple of other favorable contrary situations. Tennessee is a below average offensive team that will most likely stick to their rushing attack this week after abandoning the run in last week’s loss in New York. While the Titans will have success on the ground against Detroit’s soft defensive front (I project 4.6 ypr), a run-oriented attack will serve to eat the clock and shorten this game. My main math model favors Tennessee by just 7 ½ points in this game, but the Titans tend to play better than their yardage stats suggest and my other model, which takes into account scoring efficiencies of each team, favors Tennessee by 12 ½ points. A point spread of 11 points seems to be about right and the situations is certainly strong enough to consider Detroit as a possible Best Bet. However, Tennessee has played two games this season against other bottom teams and those games were easy wins for the Titans – 24-7 at Cincinnati and 34-10 at Kansas City. Those two games are not enough to sway me from liking Detroit in a great situation, but they’re enough to keep me from making the Lions a Best Bet. I’ll consider Detroit a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang Happy Thanksgiving!!!


30 Dime Philadelphia Eagles (if your book is offering a 3-1/2 on the game, you can buy a half-point and lay just -3 points. Whatever you do, don't get beat by the hook.)



10-Dime 6-point teaser - Titans/OVER Seattle-Dallas



FREE (Thursday) - A&M/Texas OVER

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with PHILADELPHIA. I really like how this game sets up for the Eagles. Both teams come in off big losses. It is my opinion that "all losses are not created equally" though and that different types of losses need to viewed differently. Many will favor the Cardinals based on the fact that Arizona was relatively close in its loss, while Philadelphia was blown out. However, in the NFL, although it may sound strange, it's often easier for a good team to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is to recover from a closer defeat. Arizona could easily still be thinking about what could have been. After all, a win over the defending Super Bowl champs would have really shown that the Cards were for real. We have to go way back to last November to find the last time that the Eagles were defeated by double-digits. After that 38-17 loss vs. Dallas, they responded with a convincing victory the following week, going on the road and defeating Washington by eight. In addition to wanting to bounce back from last week's embarrassing loss, the Eagles desperately need a victory if they want to get back in the highly competitive NFC Wildcard race. Conversely, due to the fact that they play in the weakest division in the NFL, the Cardinals can lose this game and will still be in great shape for the playoffs. In other words, its much more important to Philadelphia. I like that the Eagles received a wakeup with McNabb's benching last week and agree with Andy Reid, who said: "Sometimes you have to step back to step forward in a positive way and Donovan will do that." I also really like the fact that the Eagles are sticking with McNabb this week, as that shows that they haven't given up on the season yet. Naturally, McNabb will be highly motivated to bounce back with a big performance after being benched for the first time in his career. Yes, the Cardinals bring the better record to the table. However, four of their victories came against teams from the NFC West and, as already mentioned, they play in a MUCH easier division. The Eagles would surely have a better record too, if they played in the NFC West. In fact, they're already 3-0 SU/ATS against Arizona's division rivals this season and they won those games by a combined score of 104-36! Including those results, the Eagles are a highly profitable 25-11-2 ATS their last 38 against teams from the NFC West. The Eagles are outscoring opponents by an average score of 25.6 to 16.4 at home this season. Look for McNabb and co. to bounce back with a huge effort, earning the win and cover in front of the home fans and the national Thanksgiving audience. *NFL Situational GOY
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[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with DETROIT. The majority of the betting public will be quick to lay the points with the visitors in this game. The feeling will be that Tennessee will be highly motivated to bounce back with a blowout win after seeing its dreams of an undefeated season come to an end last week. I feel that will be easier said than done though, as there's often a natural letdown after a lengthy undefeated streak is snapped. The Titans still aren't really being challenged by anyone in the AFC and it should be easy for them to overlook the lowly Lions. Obviously, it's been another extremely disappointing season in Detroit. That being said, I believe that this game will mean much more to the Lions than it will to their guests. After all, a nationally televised victory vs. the team with the best record in the NFL would sure make things seem a lot better in Detroit. As you know, in this league, teams with poor records are fully capable of upsetting teams with excellent records. Here's an example from this season. The Giants, the only other team besides the Titans with just one loss, have beaten their division rivals, all three of which are strong teams, and they've easily dispatched of almost every opponent which they have faced. Yet, the only two teams that have given them real problems were Cleveland and Cincinnati, a pair of losing teams which are a combined 5-16 on the season. The Bengals took the champs down to the wire and the Browns beat them by double-digits. While none of those teams will be involved in this afternoon's game, my point is that bad teams can and do compete with good teams, often when least expected. In addition to the fact that I feel the Lions will be the more motivated team here, I also really like that they didn't have to travel at all while Tennessee had to do so after coming off a series of really "big" games. Not having to travel is especially advantageous given that this is such a short week. The Lions are a perfect 8-0 ATS the last eight times that they were double-digit underdogs and they qualify as this year's "Thanksgiving Day Roast."

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on Seattle and Dallas to finish UNDER the total. Both teams come in playing better defensively than most probably imagine. Despite being unable to be break into the win column, the Seahawks have now held six straight opponents, including high-scoring Arizona, to 26 points or less. Those six teams have averaged just 21 points. With Seattle having only scored more than 20 points only once during that stretch, it's no surprise that five of those six games stayed below the number. The Cowboys limited San Francisco to 22 points last week. That's respectable but not great. However, a closer look shows that the 49ers have just nine through three quarters, so their overall could easily have finished with less. The Cowboys were dominated defensively the previous week. In that game, they limited the Redskins to a mere 10 points and 228 total yards. Last week's result notwithstanding, the Cowboys have still seen the UNDER go a profitable 36-16-1 over the last 15+ seasons when playing a team with a losing record during the second half of the season and 61-37-2 against losing teams overall during that stretch. Looking at more recent history and we find the UNDER at 4-1 the last five times that these teams have faced each other. They combined for 41 points in January of 2007 and just 23 when they met in October of 2005. Look for this afternoon's game to prove lower- scoring that most are expecting once again.

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on Arizona and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. The Eagles are off a bad loss last week and are now 0-2-1 their last three games. Over the years, when things have gotten tough in Philadelphia, the Eagles have typically elevated their level of play on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, the UNDER is a highly profitable 35-18-1 the last 54 times that they were coming off two or more consecutive games without a victory. While they did give up a lot of points in the second half at Baltimore last week, the Eagles are allowing a mere 16.4 points and 294.2 yards per game at home. Not surprisingly, four of their five home games have stayed below the total. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 6-1 the last seven games here, dating back to last season. Meanwhile, many might be surprised to find out that the high-scoring Cardinals have actually seen four of six road games, including each of their last two, dip below the number. The Eagles have seen the UNDER go 21-9 the last 30 times that they were laying points and I expect this evening's game to prove lower-scoring than most are expecting once again.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's 7* MASSIVE MISMATCH: 10-4-1 L7 days

Larry promised an 0-2 Tuesday wouldn't deter him on Wednesday and true to his word, he came through. He not only won his 1st 25* of the CBB season (Okla) but his MASSIVE MISMATCH on Ole Miss "all of that," as the Rebels won, 78-46!Larry's 10-4-1 the L7 days in CBB and another MASSIVE MISMATCH is on tap for Turkey Day. 'Gobble' it up!


Gonzaga



Larry Ness' 7* Holiday Bailout-CBB (71.4%)

Larry's 'lighting it up' in CBB the L7 days, going 10-4-1 (71.4% ATS). Thanksgiving is not an easy day for bettors, who spend the day with friends and family, while constantly checking for scores. Looking for that one late game after getting rid of your friends and family? Then look no further than Larry's 7* CBB Holiday Bailout!


Baylor

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

Lions
Seattle
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[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with MARYLAND. The Spartans boast a strong team and they've been dominant in their first two games. However, they've had more than a week off in between games, which isn't always a good thing, and now they're taking a major step up in class. Michigan State's first two games were against a pair of weaklings, Idaho and IPFW. Obviously, ACC foe Maryland, which is already 3-0, brings a lot more to the table. As Spartans coach Tom Izzo had to say: "It seems like it heats up quickly for us now, with the games we have coming up." Izzo went on to say: "But still the single biggest issue I have is my own team." Izzo's primary "issue" is likely the health of his senior center Goran Suton. Suton is dealing with a knee injury that may well give him problems all season. Maryland comes in with a 3-0 record, having outscored opponents by a 81-58 margin. The Terrapins almost lost their last game, needing overtime to defeat Vermont. I feel that "close game experience" will serve them well here though and I like the fact that the Terps battled to get the victory. Coach Gary Williams had this to say: "In any good season, there's a win like that somewhere along the line, where it seems there's no chance to win. It kind of cements the idea that if you work hard enough, good things happen." Williams, who now has 400 victories for his career, has seen his Terrapins go an impressive 18-2 their last 20 games played in the month of November. The Terrapins defeated the Spartans by two points the last time that these teams faced each other and I look for them to give the Spartans all they can handle again today. *Underdog GOM

[Mr. IWS]

Root

Chair - Dallas
Mill - Det

[Mr. IWS]

ppp oppinions
a&m
dallas over
philly over
det undser

[Mr. IWS]

spritzer
tenn
ariz