11-29-08

EXPERT: Larry Ness
TITLE: Larry's LEGEND Play-CFB (11-3 in CFB s/'05)
REASON FOR PICK: Tulane opened the '08 season with two impressive games. The Green Wave 'hung tough' at Alabama in their season opener, losing 20-6 to the team which enters this weekend 11-0 and No. 1 in every poll, as well as being No. 1 in the BCS standings. Tulane then almost upset East Carolina (lost 28-24) on September 13, a team which came in ranked No. 14 at the time, after opening its season with wins over then-No. 17 Va Tech and then-No.8 West Va. Tulane evened its record at 2-2 with wins over Louisiana-Monroe and SMU but Tulane never recovered after losing 44-13 at home (as 27-point favorites!) to an Army team on a 10-game losing streak. Tulane enters this game on a seven-game losing streak (2-5 ATS), having been outscored 284-106 (just one loss has come by less than 17 points). The Green Wave have been hit hard by injuries, none more devastating than the loss of RB Andre Anderson. From Sep 20-Oct 18, Anderson averaged 184.5 YPG (6.0 YPC) over Tulane's four games. However, since being lost for the season due to a dislocated shoulder, the Green Wave have averaged a miniscule 76.0 YPG (2.6 YPC) on the ground over their last four games as an entire team. QB Kevin Moore has three TD passes and seven INTs during the team's seven-game losing streak with five INTs and just one TD over the team's last five games (118 attempts). The defense has allowed 40.6 PPG during its seven-game slide and over the last three games, has allowed 570.7 YPG (46.3 PPG). I think you may have guessed that I'm NOT taking the points with Tulane. Memphis opened 0-3 but evened its record at 3-3. However, on a Friday night at home vs Louisville (Oct 10), the Tigers dominated Louisville in the boxscore (481 yards to 299) but lost, 35-28. The Cards scored on a 95 KO return plus returned two fumbles for TDs, including the game-winner in the fourth quarter. After all that, the Green Wave had pulled to within striking distance of first place in the C-USA East Division heading into last week's home game but lost 28-21 to UCF, falling out of contention. QB Arkelon Hall returned in that game and had a tough time against a solid UCF secondary, completing 15-of-35 passes for 183 yards (one TD / one INT), while rushing for 42 yards. Memphis outgained UCF 305-194 in yards and held them to just 10 FDs. Head coach Tommy West is in his eighth year at Memphis and he's led the Tigers to bowl games in FOUR of the last five seasons. Memphis can become bowl-eligible with a win here (although at 6-6, would surely not be guaranteed one) and I expect a good effort here against hapless and injury-riddled Tulane. RB Curtis Steele (1,040 yards / 5.7 YPC) was battling an illness last week, as he ran for only 38 yards on 15 carries. However, West said at his weekly press conference that he thinks Steele (hamstring) will be 100 percent this week and that QB Hall was basically "working off the rust" last week. Tulane's rush D allows a pathetic 203.8 YPG (5.7 YPC) so Steele should get "healthy in a hurry," while Hall should have little trouble vs the Green Wave pass D. Tulane only allows 178.6 YPG in the air (teams are too busy running the ball) but allows 63.0 percent completions, while giving up 18 TDs against just nine INTs. Memphis may not be bowl-bound even if it wins here but Tulane just doesn't have enough 'fight' left. LEGEND Play on Memphis (10*).

Dr. Bob

Mississippi (-17) 4-Stars at -17 or less, 3-Stars from -17 1/2 to -19, 2-Stars at -19 1/2 or -20 points.
Maryland (+7) 3-Stars at +7 (-115 odds or better), 2-Stars from +6 1/2 to +5.
Oklahoma State (+7) 2-Stars at +4 or more, 3-Stars at +7 1/2 or more.
Strong Opinion - Arizona State (-9 1/2) Strong Opinion at -10 or less.
Strong Opinion - Alabama (-14) Strong Opinion at -14 or less.

Larry Ness Saturday


Larry's LEGEND Play-CFB (11-3 in CFB s/'05)

Larry's 13-4 with his 'high-end' November plays entering Friday (9 and 10*s in all sports). As impressive as that is, his success with his LEGEND Plays in CFB (10* rating), games previously available to only his personal clients, speaks for itself! In CFB regular season games since '05, Larry's 11-3 (84.6% ATS)!. Your move.

Memphis Tigers


Larry's 7* Bedlam Blockbuster (7-1 L/Sat)

Larry went 7-1 (87.5%) last Saturday in all sports. It included an easy win on his 9* in the Big 12 , as Okla crushed Tex Tech, 65-21. Will it be deja vu all over again? Larry says Y-E-S and you won't want to miss his Bedlam Blockbuster, as OU takes on OSU. Is Larry sticking with the Sooners? The 'ANSWER' is just a click away!

Oklahoma State


Larry's 7* Revenge Rout-Part 2 (7-1 L/Sat)

TCU (-20) had little trouble with Air Force last Saturday, winning 44-10. Larry's Revenge Rout was just a small part of his BIG Saturday, as he went 7-1 (87.5% ATS) with all his releases. Larry's back for more this Saturday and he's not shy about "going back to the well," one more time. Don't miss Larry's CFB Revenge Rout-Part 2!


Rice Owls



Larry's Weekend Wipeout Winner:7-1 last Sat

It's the final full Saturday of the '08 CFB season and Larry's poised a "big finish!" He went 7-1 last Saturday with all of his releases (4-1 in CFB) and has isolated one of Saturday's early games with "blowout written all over it." When Larry calls for a W-I-P-E-O-U-T, you want an invite to the 'party.' RSVP now.


Virginia Tech

Dr. Bob

3 Star Selection
Maryland (+7) 22 BOSTON COLLEGE 20
29-Nov-08 12:30 PM Pacific Time
Boston College has out-scored their 10 Division 1A opponents by an average margin of 6.0 points and those foes are 3.3 points better than average. While the Eagles scoring margin and strength of schedule indicate they are a good team (they rank at 20th on a compensated points model), they really aren’t. Boston College has a very good defense that has yielded just 4.5 yards per play to 1A teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive unit, but the Eagles are horrible offensively – averaging only 4.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. So, BC is just 0.1 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage and they are now worse than average with starting quarterback Chris Crane out for the season. Crane was a below average quarterback that averaged just 5.6 yards per pass attempt, but freshman backup Dominique Davis has averaged only 4.4 ypa and 3.5 yards per pass play on 38 pass plays. I’ll assume Davis will be better with a full week of getting all the 1st team reps in practice, but backups are usually about 0.5 yards per pass play worse than the starter and that number is even worse for freshman backups. Maryland has been out-scored 20.0 to 20.8 this season but the Terrapins have out-gained their opponents 5.6 yppl to 5.2 yppl and they rate at 0.5 yppl better than average on offense and average on defense. Aside from being a better team from the line of scrimmage Maryland also has an edge in this game in special teams and should have better field position because of it. One of the reasons Boston College has had a better scoring margin than they should based on their yardage stats is because they’ve had an advantage in 3rd down conversions (37% to 32% for their opponents) while also converting on 14 of 19 4th downs while holding their opponents to 6 of 16 on 4th downs. I doubt that BC will continue to convert on 3rd and 4th downs as much with a freshman quarterback and Maryland has a great chance to win this game if 3rd and 4th down conversion percentage is close to even in this game, as my math model forecasts Maryland with 4.9 yppl and BC with 4.75 yppl. My math model actually favors the Terrapins to win straight up, but my math model projection is not 100% the true line, just as the actual vegas line is not 100% the true line. Over the years my research has shown that the true line on a game is in between what my math model predicts and what the actual point spread is. In this case the true line on this game is BC by just 3 points, which gives the Terrapins a 62.4% chance of covering at +7 points (59.8% at +6 ½, 59.0% at +6, 57.8% at +5 1/2 and 56.8% at +5). Boston College also applies to a negative 15-36 ATS letdown situation that plays against conference home favorites of more than 3 points after winning and covering 3 or more consecutive games when facing a team coming off exactly one loss (that situation is just 2-11 ATS for teams seeking revenge, as BC is). Maryland, meanwhile, is 3-0 straight up following a loss this season, winning all 3 times as underdogs to Cal, Wake Forest, and North Carolina. The Terps are also 11-3 ATS after a loss in which they scored less than 14 points under coach Ralph Friedgen, so I’ll look for them to bounce back with a good effort today after last week’s 3-37 loss to Florida State. I’ll take Maryland in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars from +6 ½ to +5 points.
2 Star Selection




OKLAHOMA ST. (+7.0) 40 Oklahoma 37
29-Nov-08 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Oklahoma sure looked unbeatable last week, but Texas looked unbeatable going into Texas Tech and the Longhorns lost that game straight up. This game is very similar to that one in that we’re getting a very quality team getting points at home in a great situation. Oklahoma’s offense has averaged 52.2 points per game on 7.3 yards per play and is 2.4 yppl better than average with QB Bradford on the field, but Oklahoma State has the 5th best offense in the nation, averaging 40.1 points on 7.1 yppl while rating at 1.9 yppl better than average. Quarterback Zac Robinson’s compensated yards per pass play number (9.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB) is second in the nation behind Bradford and the Cowboys have an outstanding rushing attack (5.8 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) that should have good success against a mediocre Oklahoma run defense (4.7 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yprp). Texas averaged 6.0 yprp while beating Oklahoma and the Cowboys are much better than the Longhorns running the ball and Robinson is actually more efficient throwing the ball than Colt McCoy on a compensated yards per pass play basis. Oklahoma State is certainly capable of keeping up with Oklahoma’s explosive offense in this game and the Cowboys defense held the explosive offensive units of Missouri and Texas to 23 points and 28 points, respectively (although they did get torched by Texas Tech) – so that unit is capable of slowing down a great attack. Oklahoma State covered the spread in 2 of 3 games against the other great Big 12 teams, losing by just 4 points at Texas and winning at Missouri, and all 3 of their games against great teams were on the road. Oklahoma’s only game away from home against a good team resulted in a 35-45 loss to Texas on a neutral field. My math model projects Oklahoma with a modest 553 to 494 edge in total yards and Oklahoma State has better special teams. My math model favors Oklahoma by only 4 ½ points after adjusting for the Sooners’ unbelievable red-zone efficiency (6.3 points averaged on each trip inside the opponent’s 20 yard line, scoring 56 touchdowns in 64 red-zone chances) and Oklahoma applies to a very negative 12-53 ATS road letdown situation. Oklahoma State had the luxury of a late season bye week to prepare for this game while the Sooners played the former #2 team in the nation last week. The Cowboys apply to a very strong 43-7-1 ATS situation that plays on home underdogs after a late season bye week and the home team is 8-1-1 ATS in this series the last 10 years. Also, the team coming in on a win streak generally struggled in this rivalry game, as the team entering this game off 2 or more wins is just 1-11-1 ATS if the opponent has not won their last 2 games (which is the case this year). Revenge has also worked in this series, with the revenging team going 17-7-1, including 9-1-1 ATS for the home team with revenge (8-0-1 ATS against a team on a win streak). Oklahoma State looks like a very good bet, but even I’m having a tough time making this as big a play as it should be after watching the Sooners in recent weeks. I’ll take Oklahoma State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 ½ or more.



College Strong Opinions
ALABAMA (-14.0) 30 Auburn 10
29-Nov-08 12:30 PM Pacific Time
Auburn has lost 6 consecutive times to Auburn, but this time the Crimson Tide have the better team and will be highly motivated to remain unbeaten heading into the SEC Championship game with Florida next week. Alabama applies to a 45-13-2 ATS situation that plays on unbeaten home favorites and the Tide should eventually pull away thanks to a stingy defense (4.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) that should limit a lame Tigers’ attack that has averaged just 4.5 yppl this season and just 12.6 points in 7 games against average or better defensive units – none of which are as good as Alabama’s defense. Auburn has been better offensively with Kodi Burns starting at quarterback the last 4 games but my math model still projects just 233 total yards at 3.6 yppl for Auburn in this game. The only concern in this game is that Auburn’s defense (0.7 yppl better than average) has an edge over Alabama’s offense (0.5 yppl better than average). The math still calls for the Tide to rack up a decent 373 total yards at home and the fair line on this game is 16 points. I’ll consider Alabama a Strong Opinion in this game at -14 points or less based on the good situation.

Big Al Mcmordie

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Computer Boys Florida International Cfb

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
THE GAME OF THE YEAR

I'm laying the points with GEORGIA. Recent results have given us excellent value with a very strong Georgia team which I feel will be extremely motivated. The Bulldogs are 2-1 the last three games but were 0-3 against the number. Those pointspread losses didn't surprise me though as I successfully played against Georgia in each of its last two games. Off their blowout loss to Florida and with Auburn on deck, I felt that the Bulldogs would have trouble getting up for their road game at Kentucky. That proved to be the case as Georgia won by only four points as a 13.5 point favorite. I also felt that the Bulldogs were laying too many points in their last game, which was also on the road. The Bulldogs were playing their sixth game in six weeks and I didn't feel that they would be able to cover the large number (-9) vs. Auburn, a hated conference rival. Once again, Georgia won by four points but didn't cover. Working in our favor is that the Bulldogs were a very popular pick with the betting public in both those recent ATS losses and many bettors don't like to continue to lose with a team more than a couple of times in a row. In other words, many won't be willing to back the Bulldogs here which again goes back to my point about line value. Likewise, Georgia Tech's last game (vs. Miami) also works in our favor here. You'll probably remember that contest as it was televised on ESPN and was the only NCAA game being played on that Thursday. I played on the Yellow Jackets as small favorites in that game and they won by 18 points. As a result of that blowout, everyone's impression is that the Yellow Jackets are a national powerhouse and that getting points with them sounds pretty appealing. Once again, this has kept this line from getting out of control. Give the Yellow Jackets credit. Paul Johnson did a great job at Navy and he's come in here and done well here in his first season as coach at Georgia Tech as the Yellow Jackets are a highly respectable 8-3. No matter what happens today, they'll still be at least tied for the best record in the ACC Central That being said, two of their victories came against the likes of I-AA teams Jacksonville State and Gardner Webb, who they beat by only three points, and the ACC hasn't been very strong overall this season. The Yellow Jackets are just 2-2 on the road and they've been outscored by a 20.2 to 16.2 margin in those four games. In their last road game, they were blown out 27-6 at North Carolina. In my opinion, Georgia, which entered the season with the #1 ranking in the polls is a much more powerful team than any that Georgia Tech has seen this year. People view the Bulldogs as a disappointment. That's only because of the massive amount of talent on the roster though and because there originally had been thoughts of an undefeated season. Georgia still went 9-2 while playing in an extremely tough SEC conference. Their only two losses came vs. Alabama and Florida and those two teams are #1 and #2 in the country. Speaking of that Florida loss, that's still fresh on the Bulldogs' minds as this is their first home game since that debacle. They'd love nothing more than to get rid of those bad memories by closing out their "disappointing" regular season with a blowout win of their instate rival. The Bulldogs are more than capable of doing it, too. They lead the SEC in total offense with 429 yards per game and 31.2 points per game. Those numbers increase to a whopping 36.2 and 458.8 here at home. Keep in mind that those numbers are coming against many of the top defenses in the country. QB Matthew Stafford, RB Knowshon Moreno, and WR A.J. Green lead the SEC in passing, rushing and receiving respectively. Wide receiver Mohamed Massaquoi is also having a strong season, ranking third in the conference in receiving yards. While the Yellow Jackets have done a great job at learning Paul Johnson's offense, they aren't designed to play from behind. That's why the fact that they scored 16 points on the road compared to Georgia's 36+ at home is so important. It should also be noted that Georgia is coming off a much-needed bye and that the Bulldogs are an excellent 5-0 (3-0 ATS) the last five times they were coming off a bye and 31-11 (26-14 ATS) the last 42. Looking at the series history and we find that the Bulldogs have dominated the recent meetings, one of the big reasons Chan Gailey was replaced. Last year's 14-point win marked the seventh straight victory for the Bulldogs and Gailey was fired right after the game. Johnson is a better coach than Gailey and he'll eventually do what Gailey was unable to and beat Georgia. It won't be on the road in his first year though - not against one of Georgia's best teams in years. Keep in mind that the Bulldogs won by 14 on the road last year and that they returned 17 starters from that team. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets returned just nine starters and had to learn an entirely new system. I used the Bulldogs last New Year's Day in the Sugar Bowl as my "Bowl Game of the Year." Feeling disrespected by the nation, they rewarded me by laying a 41-10 beating on a previously undefeated Hawaii team. Once again, the Bulldogs are well-rested and once again they feel that they've got something to prove. I expect them to deliver another double-digit victory. *2008 GOY

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with OKLAHOMA STATE. I had the Sooners last week, so I wasn't surprised that they won convincingly vs. Texas Tech. While that was certainly an impressive performance, I expect the Sooners to have significantly more trouble this week. Last week's game was at home. This week, the Sooners play on the road vs. a Cowboys team which is undefeated (6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS) at home this season, which is coming off a bye and which has played them extremely tough here in recent seasons. These teams have met five times here at Stillwater since 1998. In 1998, the Cowboys won 41-26. In 2000, Oklahoma won by just five points as a 26 point favorite. In 2002, Oklahoma State won by 10 points as a 15 point underdog. The Sooners won here in both 2004 and 2006. However, both those games also came down to the wire, being decided by just three and six points. Even with last week's cover, the Sooners are still just 2-4 ATS the last six times that they were favored by eight points or less. Expect them to have their hands full in Stillwater once again. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
REVENGE GAME OF MONTH

I'm taking the points with OREGON. The Beavers have had the better season and they are playing at home. However, the Ducks have several important factors in their favor. For starters, they've also had another strong season, entering the "Civil War" with a 8-3. They're also playing at a very high level, having won two straight and four of five. Last time out, they scored 55 points at Arizona, en route to a double-digit victory. Additionally, the Ducks had last week off while the Beavers are coming off a much harder-fought victory vs. that same Arizona team. The Ducks also catch the Beavers dealing with some injury problems. Quarterback Lyle Moevao is expected to play but he isn't 100% and missed last week's game. Meanwhile, star freshman tailback Jacquizz Rodgers is expected to miss the game - if he does play he can't be expected to be 100%. That's worth noting as Rodgers is the Pac-10's leading rusher. Conversely, Oregon coach Mike Bellotti welcomed banged up players back to practice after the bye week and said his of his team, "We're healthy, we're rested."The Ducks also have serious payback on their minds. Despite having a 55-46-10 all-time lead in the series, the Ducks have lost two straight in the series. Last year's loss was especially painful for the Ducks as the Beavers beat them at Eugene in double-overtime. Its safe to say that Oregon and its fans haven't forgotten. The Ducks, who would love nothing more than to keep the Beavers out of the Rose Bowl, are 11-6 ATS the last 17 times they were road underdogs of three points or less and 33-15 ATS the last 48 times they played a game with a line ranging from +3 to -3. Payback is sweet. *Revenge GOM

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Saturday

30 Dime Rice


10 Dime 6-Point Teaser - Georgia Tech / N.C. State

Free – 6-point Teaser - Vanderbilt / South Carolina (See daily video for your analysis)

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer's 2008 CFB POWER PLAY GAME OF THE YEAR! *6-1, 86% Run! - Saturday
I'm laying the points with Cincinnati on Saturday (12-noon ET). The Bearcats have settled on a QB and they now have positioned themselves for a BCS berth. After trying just about everyone with eligibility under center, HC Brian Kelly has found his on-field leader in Tony Pike. The Bearcats were actually forced to try several different QBs, mainly due to injuries. Pike, a junior is playing with a broken forearm (non throwing arm) and had a monster game in last week's win over Pittsburgh. Pike completed 26 of 32 passes for 309 yards with three TDs and no inteceptions. Making him even more dangerous is the fact that he can move. Pike ran the ball nine times last week for 33 yards. Not mind-blowing yardage, but he escapes closing pockets and can throw accurately on the run or pull the ball down and gain a few yards rather than taking too many sacks. Pike is connecting on 63% of his passes this season with a healthy, 15-to-4, TD-to-INT ratio. That's great news for Cinci backers because the Syracuse defense has been horrible away from home, for the most part. The Orange have allowed their five hosts to connect on 67% of their passes with 12 TDs and just 3 interceptions. Teams who have tried to run the ball on the 'Cuse have done so without much resistance. Yes, Notre Dame had some curious play-calling and blew a 23-10 lead last week, but Syracuse's other four road opponents ran the ball for an average of 232.8 yards per game at 5.9 yards per carry. Can't stop the run...can't stop the pass! And, the Orange are coming off of one of their biggest wins ever, certainly of the Greg Robinson-era. It was announced last week that Robinson would not be back next season and his team performed to the highest of their emotional and physical abilities to get the late win in South Bend. After celebrating like they had just won a championship, it's going to be tough for this poorly coached, bad football team to bounce back against the Bearcats. Cinci is playing for that BCS berth mentioned above, and they have the best coach in the conference on their sideline to keep them focused. The Bearcat defense has been outstanding all season. Tossing out their first two games against Eastern Kentucky (40-7 win) and Oklahoma (52-26 loss), Cinci has allowed an average of just 310.1 total yards per game at just 4.38 yards per play! They're allowing just 101.1 rushing yards per game at 3 yards per carry, and the Bearcats have 25 sacks and 11 INTs, while allowing just nine passing TDs in nine games! Cincinnati will be playing without CB Mickens for the final two games of the regular season, but no big deal here. They played without him last week and handled Pitt. As far as the "techs" are concerned, the Bearcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS in November under HC Brian Kelly. They're also a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season the last two years with the current regime calling the shots, going 11-3 ATS at home overall. Meanwhile, Syracuse is 4-25 SU as a dog, covering just 11 of 29. The team is now 10-36 SU under Robinson overall, including just THREE S/U wins in conference play and a 6-17 ATS Big East record. Syracuse had "their game" last week and won for their departing coach. Cinci needs to keep focused to wrap up a BCS berth. Advantage situation. Advantage coaching. Advantage talent. Look for Cincinnati to squeeze the Orange. I'm laying the points with the Bearcats on Saturday, my CFB Power Play GOY. Tnanks! GL! Scott.

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al - Next update Saturday morning.

ncaaf
4* Oklahoma State+7.5
3* Rice+3
3* Florida International+4
3* Cincy-21.5
3* Kansas+16
1* USC-32

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's JAW-DROPPING 21-0 SYSTEM GAME OF THE YEAR -- Saturday
At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys plus the points over Oklahoma, as Mike Gundy's men fit one of my best College Football Conference Revenge Systems which is 21-0 ATS since 1980. This angle plays on rested, .251 (or better) home underdogs of +7 or more points, off a win, at Game 9 of the season or later. Last season, Okie State lost 49-17 to Oklahoma, so the Cowboys play this game with revenge. The revenger is also 17-9 ATS in this series, including 9-3 ATS at home. There are five very good teams in the Big 12 Conference this season (Missouri, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State). The Sooners have not played any of these teams on the road this year. Oklahoma did play Texas at a neutral site (in Dallas) and lost 45-35. Oklahoma State, in contrast, had to play AT Missouri, AT Texas, and AT Texas Tech, and won outright at Mizzou as a 14-point underdog, covered at Texas as a 12-point underdog, and lost at Texas Tech. Indeed, of the seven games this year played between two of these five teams, the road team has only won once (Oklahoma State's win at Missouri). Look for the Cowboys to win this game. Take the points with Oklahoma State. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie. And don't miss my 3-game Package, or my Conference Game of the Year or my Roadkill Winner.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's 7* Daytime Dominator-CBB:15-4-1 run

Larry's 'ASSAULT' on the CBB pointspread continued on Friday as he made it a 3-0 sweep! He won with Oklahoma, Rhode Island and Michigan St and is now 15-4-1 (78.9% ATS) over his L20 releases! He is surely "not backing off" on this busy Saturday and it starts this afternoon with his 7* Daytime Dominator. Any takers?


George Mason

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's COLLEGE FOOTBALL ROADKILL (86% THIS YEAR) -- Saturday
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Rice Owls plus the points over Houston, as Rice falls into 24-5, 150-84, 108-44, and 30-14 ATS systems of mine. Houston is off three straight wins, and has been installed as a road favorite, but I really like the home dog here, as I favor playing home dogs in college football that can light up the scoreboard (as opposed to defensive-oriented home dogs). Rice has won five straight games, and has scored 35+ points in each of those victories. Last week, Rice crushed Marshall 35-10 and fall into the systems enumerated above based on that victory. The 30-14 angle is a momentum system that plays on .600 (or better) revenging underdogs in their final home game of the season which are off a win, and 10-point cover in their most recent game. And our 150-84 ATS system plays against road teams off 3+ conference wins, if they're matched up against a foe off a double-digit win which scored more than 30 points in its previous game. The Owls are 20-2-1 ATS their last 23 as home dogs vs. conference foes, and the revenger is 15-8 ATS in this city rivalry. Finally, Houston is a terrible 0-9 ATS its last 9 off back-to-back wins. College Football Roadkill on Rice. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my 3-game Football package, or my Conference Game of the Year, or System Play of the Year on Saturday.

Paid and confirmed

[Mr. IWS]

root
MILL-Rice
Chair-Florida st
inside-kentuk
money-vandy
nolimit-La tech

Bill-oregon
Perfect GOY-oky st

[Mr. IWS]

Scotty Spreitzer
tko oklahoma state
tko kentucky
ko utah state

5* Vandy

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's Oddsmaker's Error-CBB:5-1 TY in BKB

Part of Larry's 3-0 CBB sweep on Friday was an Oddsmaker's Error winner on Rhode Island. He's now 5-1 (83.3% ATS) with his Oddsmaker's Error plays TY in BKB. Larry's on a superb 15-4-1 (78.9% ATS) run with his last 20 CBB releases, so "sitting on the sidelines" for his latest Oddsmaker's Error play, is "not an option!"


VCU Rams

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
4 cinc, mo. okla st. tenn
3 nc st. auburn

[Mr. IWS]

Dr.Bob

2 Star Selection
**GEORGE MASON (-5 ½) over Ohio
01:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 540
Ohio is 2-0 with impressive wins of 74-55 over William & Mary and 79-68 at Austin Peay, but a look at the boxscores of those games reveals an abundance of positive random variance that the Bobcats are not likely to be blessed with going forward. Ohio made a ridiculous 16 of 29 3-point shots (55%) in those two victories while their opponents made just 9 of 38 shots (23.7%) from beyond the arc. Ohio made just 34.6% of their 3-pointers last year and calculating the expected number of 3-pointers made for each player based on his 3-point percentage since last season would predict 39.4% 3-pointers made, which would be an expected 11.4 made 3-pointers out of 29 attempts rather than 16 made 3-pointers. Ohio’s opponent’s combine to average 36.7% 3-pointers made this season, but those teams made just 23.7% against Ohio. Part of that should be attributed to Ohio’s defense, but the teams that lead the nation in 3-point percentage defense each season allow about 5% less than their opponents would normally make, so I’ll assume that anything under 31% 3-pointers allowed is purely random good luck. At 31% success their opponents would have made 11.8 of their 38 3-point attempts instead of 9. So, Ohio randomly made 4.6 more 3-pointers than could be reasonably expected while their opponents made at least 2.8 fewer 3-pointers than they should have made. That’s 7.4 net 3-pointers on random good luck for Ohio, which translates into 20 points (every extra 3-pointer is 2.7 additional points instead of 3 points since some of the missed 3-pointers would be rebounded by the offense and converted into points) – or 10 points per game. Even with those random 10 points per game for Ohio, George Mason has still performed 0.4 points better this season based on point differentials and strength of schedule. But, instead of being favored by 4 ½ points at home based on this season’s performance, I would favor George Mason by 9 points based on my ratings and even more if I use this year’s game only while taking out random variance in the stats. George Mason has made 31.9% of their 3-pointers while allowed 32.5%, so there is no randomness in their good early season play, as the Patriots have 4 experienced starters and a talented group of young players coming off the bench. A better indication of how a team is playing is 2-point field goal percentage and Ohio has made just 44.6% of their 2-pointers while allowing a horrible 51.4% on shots inside the arc. George Mason, meanwhile, has made 52.4% of their 2-pointers while allowing 48.4% on 2-pointers and they’ve played a tougher schedule than Ohio has. George Mason will dominate this game inside the paint and should win comfortably as long as Ohio doesn’t continue to make over half of their 3-point shots, which is unlikely. In addition to the line value, George Mason applies to a solid 209-122-10 ATS home momentum situation and the Patriots are 56-33-3 ATS as a home favorite of 4 points or more under coach Jim Larranaga (41-19-2 ATS as a favorite from 4 points to 12 points). I’ll take George Mason in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 3-Stars at -5 or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al's 10 dime play was

Virginia over