11-30-08

Dr. Bob

CLEVELAND 23 Indianapolis (-4.5) 22
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
The Colts are nothing more than a mediocre team that has averaged 5.4 yards per play, allowing 5.4 yppl and has worse than average special teams. Cleveland, however, is 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively with Derek Anderson back at quarterback and 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively. One of my math model favors Cleveland by ½ a point while the other one favors the Colts by 2 points, so the line looks to be too high. Indy applies to a negative 35-87-4 ATS situation and a negative 126-196-16 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggest that the Colts don’t have the characteristics of a team that should be laying points on the road.



San Francisco vs. BUFFALO (-6.5)
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here



NY JETS (-7.5) 28 Denver 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
It’s just like the Broncos to win consecutive games as underdogs and then lose straight up as a double-digit favorite, which they did last week against Oakland. It is also just like Denver to bounce back this week against a Jets team coming off an upset win. Denver is actually 3-1 straight up as an underdog of pick this season and only 3-5 straight up as a favorite and the Broncos apply to a 103-38-6 ATS underdog bounce-back situation this week. My math model favors New York by 11 points and the other math model favors the Jets by 10, but the negative line value isn’t as significant as the good situation, so I’ll lean slightly with Denver at +7 ½ or more.


Baltimore (-7.0) 14 CINCINNATI 13
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
The Bengals don’t have much of a chance offensively in this game with the league’s worst offense going up against one of the better defensive teams in the league, but Cincinnati has a pretty good young defense (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and Baltimore is lacking offensively (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team). I like the big home underdog in a low scoring game.


SAN DIEGO (-4.5) 30 Atlanta 21
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
My math model only favors San Diego by 3 points, but the Chargers apply to a 135-65-5 ATS contrary indicator while Atlanta applies to a negative 28-76-3 ATS road letdown situation. San Diego generally plays better at home (23-5-1 ATS at home up to -11 points) and I'll side with the Chargers based on the technical analysis.


NEW ENGLAND (-1.0) 18 Pittsburgh 17
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
New England quarterback Matt Cassell has played well the last two weeks, but I doubt he’ll be able to continue that good play against the league’s best pass defense (Pittsburgh allowed just 4.4 yards per pass play) and the Patriots don’t figure to get much on the ground either (Pitt allowed only 3.0 ypr). My math model favors Pittsburgh by 2 points in this game, but the Patriots apply to a decent 169-104-8 ATS statistical profile indicator so I’ll pass this game.


OAKLAND (-3.0) 24 Kansas City 21
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
The Raiders won for me last week at Denver, as their improved defense continued their good play since getting rid of over-paid and under-talented CB DeAngelo Hall. Hall was picked on constantly by opposing quarterbacks to the tune of 552 yards on 66 passes thrown to the man he was supposed to be covering, but new CB Chris Johnson has been great in Hall’s place the last 3 weeks and the Raiders have allowed just 5.1 yards per play in those 3 games against teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit. Kansas City, meanwhile, has improved their offense since going to the spread attack, which rookie quarterback Tyler Thigpen ran in college. Thigpen was horrible early in the season running the pro-style attack, but he’s been great since the change to the spread was made in week 8, as the Chiefs have averaged 6.0 yppl in those 5 games against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Kansas City’s improved offense and the Raiders’ improved defense are a wash, but the Raiders’ attack (0.7 yppl worse than average) has an advantage over a horrible Chiefs’ defense that has allowed 6.4 yppl and is 1.0 yppl worse than average after compensating for strength of opponent. The Raiders also have excellent special teams and my math model favors Oakland by 7 points in this game. Unfortunately, last week’s upset win at Denver has the Raiders in a negative 22-59-2 ATS letdown situation this week, so I’ll pass this game.


MINNESOTA (-3.5) 23 Chicago 16
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
The Bears hit the road for the 3rd consecutive week, which is not a good situation to be in (Chicago applies to a negative 26-62-1 ATS 3rd consecutive road game angle) and Minnesota applies to a 164-104-8 ATS statistical profile indicator. However, my math barely favors Minnesota to win this game, so I ‘ll just lean with the Vikings rather than make them a play.


HOUSTON (-3.5) 27 Jacksonville 21
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Dec-01 - Stats Matchup
Houston should have no problem out-gaining the Jaguars in this game, but Sage Rosenfels is probably going to have to keep his interception count to 2 or less to win by more than a field goal. Rosenfels has averaged an impressive 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow just 6.0 yppp to an average QB), but he’s also thrown a not so impressive 9 interceptions on just 148 passes thrown. Rosenfels is not likely to get picked off at that high a rate going forward but his horrendous 5.2% career interception rate still suggests an average of 1.6 picks per game going forward. Houston’s offense will certainly move the ball, as the Texans have averaged 6.0 yards per play this season and are 1.0 yppl better than average with Rosenfels at quarterback. Jacksonville has allowed 5.6 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and the Jaguars gave up 6.3 yppl at home to the Texans in their 30-27 week 3 victory. Houston’s defense is 0.6 yppl worse than average while the Jaguars are 0.4 yppl worse than average on offense, so the Jags don’t have much of an edge when they have the ball. They do have an advantage in keeping the ball, however, as quarterback David Garrard is on pace to become the NFL’s all time leader in lowest career interception percentage (1.96%) once he has enough passes to qualify. The Jaguars are projected to be +0.8 in turnover margin, but my math still favors Houston by 6 ½ points due to their ability to move the football.

DR BOB

4 Star Selection San Francisco (+6.5) 24 BUFFALO 21*
The 49ers were more competitive against the Cowboys last week than the 22-35 score indicates, as San Francisco averaged 5.9 yards per play while allowing 6.2 yppl. The problem was an inability to cash in on a couple of scoring opportunities early in the game, when the Niners twice settled for field goals after having the ball 1st down and goal from the 4 yard line both times. The 49ers have been out-scored by 5.3 points per game despite out-gaining their opponents 5.5 yppl to 5.4 yppl because of a -13 in turnover margin. However, new quarterback Shaun Hill is much less likely to turn the ball over (4 turnovers in 3 ½ games) than former starter J.T. O’Sullivan was (17 turnovers in 7 ½ games) was and the Niners are a better than average team if they can be even in turnovers. Not only does Hill not turn the ball over, but he also doesn’t take sacks at the rate O’Sullivan did (Hill sacked just 6.5% of pass plays while O’Sullivan was sacked on 12.7% of his pass plays), which enables Hill to keep more drives going. Hill has averaged 7.0 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback, and I rate the Niners’ attack at 0.5 yppl better than average with Hill combining with Frank Gore (4.5 ypr) in a balanced attack. The 49ers’ defense is 0.1 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and the Niners are better on both sides of the ball than a Buffalo squad that is 0.1 yppl worse than average on offense (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl). Buffalo’s defense has been even worse without top DL Aaron Schobel, nickel back Ashton Youboty and more recently star SS Donte Whitner and CB Jabari Greer. Schobel and Youboty have been out since week 7 and Whitner and Greer missed last week’s game and are both listed as questionable this week. The Bills allowed Kansas City to rack up 8.1 yppl last week without those 4 key players and the Bills defense has been 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively since week 7. Buffalo does have an edge in special teams, especially if Niners’ kick and punt return man Allen Rossum does not play (he’s questionable with a sprained ankle), but my math model favors San Francisco by ½ a point in this game even if I assume Rossum will not play. San Franicsco’s problems in the red-zone last week were certainly not an isolated incident, as scoring touchdowns when they get close to the goal line has been a problem all season. My other math model takes scoring efficiency into account and that model favors Buffalo by 3 ½ points – so there is still a lot of line value on the side of the Niners in this game even if they continue to have problems in the red zone (although it’s likely they won’t be as bad as they’ve been in that area). In addition to the line value, Buffalo applies to a negative 29-72-2 ATS letdown situation and a 40-93-1 ATS statistical indicator that plays against favorites that have been struggling defensively (that makes sense). If the true line on this game is Bills by 3 ½ points (that’s a worst case scenario) then San Francisco would have a 58% chance of covering at +6 ½ points without factoring in the positive situations, which give the 49ers a 63% chance of covering when factored in. I’ll take San Francisco in a 4-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 3-Stars from +5 ½ to +4 points (2-Stars at +3 ½ or +3).

2 Star Selection TAMPA BAY (-3.5) 30 New Orleans 19*
New Orleans sure looked unstoppable offensively in Monday Night’s 51-29 win over Green Bay, but what goes up must come down and it’s tough to play at such a high level in consecutive weeks – especially when playing on the road. Drew Brees and company have scored more than 35 points on 3 other occasions in 3 years and the Saints are 0-3 straight up and 0-3 ATS in their next game after their offensive outburst while averaging just 19.7 points in those games. The average line on those games was -6 ½ points and the average spread loss was by 16 points. I’m not basing this bet on those 3 games, but I thought I’d start by convincing you that the ease at which the Saints scored last week has no bearing on this game. In general, road teams are just 69-104-6 ATS when not getting more than 4 points against a winning team the week after scoring 35 points or more in a victory, so high scoring wins are usually followed by poor outings when visiting a good team and not getting too many points. The Saints also apply to a 28-75-2 ATS road letdown situation while Tampa Bay applies to a 79-32-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator. My math model favors the Buccaneers by 5 ½ points with Reggie Bush expected back for the Saints. I mentioned last week that Bush makes no difference offensively, but he has returned 3 punts for touchdowns this season in just 6 ½ games. If Bush doesn’t play, or doesn’t return punts, then I’d favor the Bucs by even more. Of course, Tampa Bay now has their own special teams weapon in rookie Clifton Smith, who in just 4 games has already returned a punt and a kickoff for touchdowns. I’ll take Tampa Bay in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 or less (at -1.15 odds or better).

3 Star Selection Carolina (+3) 25 GREEN BAY 19*
Carolina was whipped 28-45 at Atlanta last week, but the Panthers have played well following their other two losses this season – winning 24-9 at home against the Falcons and beating New Orleans 30-7 – and they qualify in a very strong 40-7 ATS subset of a 70-21-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation. The Panthers are also a better team than Green Bay. Carolina’s offense has averaged 5.7 yards per play in 9 games with star WR Steve Smith available to play (he was suspended the first two weeks) and they rate at 0.2 yppl better than average after compensating for their easier than normal opposing defenses faced. Green Bay is just average defensively, as their ability to defend the pass is balanced out by their inability to stop the run (5.0 ypr allowed). Carolina’s edge is even greater when the Packers have the ball, as the Panthers have been 0.5 yppl better than average defensively (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) while the Packers are only 0.1 yppl better than average on offense (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl). Green Bay does have a 1.3 points advantage in projected turnovers and a 0.7 points edge in special teams, but my math model picks this game even while my other model favors Green Bay by 1 ½ points. Either way, we have value to go along with a very good situation and I’ll take Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -1.15 odds or better) and for 2-Stars down to +1.

2 Star Selection
WASHINGTON (+3.5) 21 NY Giants 17*
New York is now 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games away from home, but that team trend is not more significant than the negative 27-77-3 ATS general situation that applies to the Giants in this game. Washington, meanwhile, applies to a solid 201-120-6 ATS situation, a 135-65-5 ATS contrary indicator and a 78-33-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Washington also has what it takes to stage an upset, as the Redskins have a very good rushing attack, a quarterback that takes care of the ball (just 3 interceptions this season) and a defense that ranks among the best in the NFL – especially with CB Shawn Springs returning last week. Springs looked good last week against the Seahawks, breaking up 2 passes, and his presence makes it very tough on opponents to throw against the Redskins. Washington has allowed just 5.5 yards per pass play this season to a schedule of quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.7 yppl against an average defense and they have been even better defending the pass in the 5 games that Springs has played. In those 5 games (weeks 2, 3, 4, 6, and 12) the Redskins have yielded 5.4 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.1 yppp against an average defense (that includes games against Drew Brees, Tony Romo, and Kurt Warner). Washington also defends the run well (4.0 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.3 ypr against an average team) and the Redskins are 1.0 yppl better than average defensively, giving them a 0.3 yppl edge over the Giants’ offense (which is 0.7 yppl better than average). The Giants’ defense is only 0.3 yppl better than average for the season, but they had one horrendous game at Cleveland that has skewed their stats and I rate them at 0.6 yppl better than average using a median rating rather than their average rating. Washington is 0.1 yppl better than average offensively thanks to their strong rushing attack, so New York has a 0.5 yppl advantage over the Redskins’ offense – which is just 0.2 yppl more than Washington’s edge over the Giants’ attack. These teams are very close from the line of scrimmage and my math model favors New York by just 1 ½ points. The strong technical analysis favoring Washington is worthy of a 3-Star Best Bet, but New York’s recent history away from home will cause me to downgrade this game. I’ll take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -1.15 odds or better).

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 9* NFL Total G.O.M (16-6 s/'03)

Larry's NFL Total G.O.M. plays are highly anticipated and with good reason. His Oct Total of the Month (SD/NO over) in Wk 8 covered by more than three TDs. The win upped his NFL Total of the Month record to 16-6 (72.7%), going back to '03. It's "that time of the month" again, as Larry features his 9* Total of the Month! Your move.


Pittsburgh/New England OVER



Larry Ness' NFL Divisional 9* (11-4 in Nov)

November's been a HUGE 'money month' for Larry. His LEGEND win on Memphis (45-6) ups his run to 11-4 (73.3%) with 9 and 10* FB releases this month. The final day of November features his NFL Divisional 9*. Find out which division and which team inside, backed by Larry's expert analysis. "The winning continues." Want in?

TB Bucs

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang Sunday

25 Dime Giants (if your man has 4-1/2 you buy the 1/2 and only lay 4. If your man has 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and only lay 3) - Analysis by 11 a.m. eastern

5 Dime 6-Point Teaser - Bills and Over -

Free – Steelers

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns | NFL Side
double-dime bet398 WAS 4.0 (-110) Bodog vs 397 NYG
Analysis: I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON. I successfully played on the Giants when they hosted the Redskins way back on opening night. The champs won that game and have been on an impressive run ever since. I believe that this will prove to be an extremely tough spot for them though, as they played at Arizona last week and this marks the only time all season that they will play the second of back to back road games. Making matters tougher, the Giants' offense will be without one of its stars, as Plaxico Burress is out. The Redskins desperately need a victory here and they'll be extremely motivated to get one. In addition to the fact the Giants defeated them earlier and are a hated division rival (not to mention SB champs) the Redskins will also be motivated by the fact that this is the anniversary of Sean Taylor's death. I'll take the points but I look for an inspired effort by the revenge-minded Skins and for them to hand the Giants just their second loss of the season.

404 CLE 4.5 (-110) Bodog vs 403 IND
Analysis: I'm taking the points with CLEVELAND. I successfully played against the Browns last week, feeling that they were in a difficult spot to be laying points. They've been significantly better when playing "good" teams and getting points though. Getting more than a field goal to work with, I feel that they're now providing us with strong line value. Keep in mind that the Browns were the only team to defeat Eli Manning the Giants this season. Including that victory and they're recent win at Buffalo, the Browns are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range and 12-6-1 ATS their last 19 in that role. They're also 12-3 ATS their last 15 against teams with a winning record. Conversely, the Colts, who will be missing a couple of important offensive linemen, are just 4-9 ATS the last 13 times that they faced a team with a losing record and 1-5 ATS the last six times they were laying points. Note that the Colts, who played on the West Coast last week, lost by double-digits the last time that they played the second of back to back road games. Look for Anderson's return to provide a spark as the Browns continue their strong play against winning teams.

402 CIN 7.0 (-105) Bodog vs 401 BAL
Analysis: I'm taking the points with CINCINNATI. What a difference a few months makes. These teams faced each other at Baltimore back in September. Despite playing on the road, the Bengals were actually favored by a couple of points for that game. Now, they're playing at home, yet getting a touchdown to work with. I feel that provides us with excellent line value. Yes, the Bengals were beaten badly by Pittsburgh last time out. That's been happening for years though. Prior to that, they had played two of their better games all season, tying Philadelphia and winning outright at Jacksonville. Note that the Pittsburgh game came on a Thursday, giving the Bengals, who are still 3-1 their last four vs. the Ravens, a couple of extra days of preparation time. While the Bengals are a divisional rival, the Ravens could easily overlook them here. That's because they're coming off back to back games against top tier teams (Giants, Eagles) from the NFC East and because they've got a big primetime on deck. The Ravens are 0-4 ATS the last four times that they were road favorites on -3.5 to -7 points. Looking back further and we find them at just 3-9 ATS the last 12 times they were in that role. Expect them to have their hands full with the revenge-minded Bengals here.

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on Chicago and Minnesota to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a very high-scoring game against each other at Chicago six weeks ago. I expect a significantly lower-scoring contest this evening. The Vikings had previously been throwing the ball a lot but have gotten back to running the ball more frequently in recent weeks. In fact, in their last four games the Vikings have averaged just 21.5 pass attempts while running the ball an average of 34 times per game during that stretch. Of course, with rookie Matt Forte in the fold, the Bears also like to feature a heavy dose of the ground game. As you know, frequent run plays help to keep the clock moving. Both defenses are excellent against the run though and both are stout overall. The Vikings are allowing just 17.2 points and 262 total yards per game at home. Averaging only 20.6 points themselves, they've seen three of five games here dip below the number. As for the Bears, they're allowing an average of only 17 points and 282.8 total yards per game on the road. Averaging 21.7 points per game on the road, they've seen the UNDER go a perfect 6-0 away from Chicago. These teams also played a high-scoring game at Chicago last season. However, when they faced each other here at the Metrodome, they combined for only 33 points. When the teams faced each other here in 2006, they combined for 35 points. Look for tonight's game to be lower-scoring than most are expecting once again. *blue chip

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al Mcmordie
Computer Boys- Broncos

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Sprietzer :::

Tampa Bay

Bears/Vikings -- Over

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's 7* Daytime Dominator-CBB (10-0 run)

Larry made it another 3-0 sweep in Saturday's college hoops, as this 25-year vet is on quite a roll. The Saturday sweep gave him 10 straight wins and since Nov 20, his CBB releases are 18-4-1, or 81.8 percent ATS! It may be a busy NFL Sunday but Larry's 7* Daytime Dominator in college hoops, is "not to be missed!"

Indiana Hoosiers




Larry's Superstar Triple Play-NFL (3-in-1)

Larry released what he called "his biggest" Superstar Triple Play ever on Nov 22. He went 3-0 with that report, winning with Purdue (62-10), Utah (48-24) and Oklahoma (65-21). He doesn't expect margins of victory like that in the NFL but this 3-in-1 report does include his Sunday Night G.O.M. "Triple your pleasure" with this 25-year vet!


Car/GB Over

SD Chargers

and my Sunday Night GOM on the Min Vikings




Larry's Las Vegas Insider (quiet 2-0 week)

Larry's on a 12-3 CBB run this week (has won 10 straight!) but he's been quiet in the NBA. You remember the phrase, "silent but deadly?" That could descibe Larry's NBA week which has consisted of just two releases (2-0), including his Situational G.O.M. on Portland (Fri). Larry caps the week with a Las Vegas Insider. Want in?

Philadelphia 76ers

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- 49ers
Millionaire- Broncons
Money Maker- Chargers
No Limit- Redskins
Insiders Circle- Bengals
Billionaire- Browns

Money Maker- Bulls
No Limit- Cornell

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

3* KC
3* San Diego
3* Washington
3* Tampa
1* Minny
1* Denver