12-1-08

Brandon Lang
Sunday Analysis on these two winners by 4 p.m. eastern Monday

15 Dime Texans (if your man has 3-1/2 you buy the 1/2 and only lay 3. Remember, don't ever get beat by the hook.) -

5 Dime 6-Point Teaser Bonus - Texans with Jags/Texans Over -

FREE - Jags/Texans Over (See daily video for your analysis on this winning total)

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

15 Star Monday Night Mismatch

Houston Texans

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

HOUSTON (-3.5) 27 Jacksonville 21
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Dec-01 - Stats Matchup
Houston should have no problem out-gaining the Jaguars in this game, but Sage Rosenfels is probably going to have to keep his interception count to 2 or less to win by more than a field goal. Rosenfels has averaged an impressive 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow just 6.0 yppp to an average QB), but he’s also thrown a not so impressive 9 interceptions on just 148 passes thrown. Rosenfels is not likely to get picked off at that high a rate going forward but his horrendous 5.2% career interception rate still suggests an average of 1.6 picks per game going forward. Houston’s offense will certainly move the ball, as the Texans have averaged 6.0 yards per play this season and are 1.0 yppl better than average with Rosenfels at quarterback. Jacksonville has allowed 5.6 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and the Jaguars gave up 6.3 yppl at home to the Texans in their 30-27 week 3 victory. Houston’s defense is 0.6 yppl worse than average while the Jaguars are 0.4 yppl worse than average on offense, so the Jags don’t have much of an edge when they have the ball. They do have an advantage in keeping the ball, however, as quarterback David Garrard is on pace to become the NFL’s all time leader in lowest career interception percentage (1.96%) once he has enough passes to qualify. The Jaguars are projected to be +0.8 in turnover margin, but my math still favors Houston by 6 ½ points due to their ability to move the football.

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL MAIN EVENT

I'm playing on the Texans and Jaguars to finish UNDER the total. These teams have met 13 times since the Texans entered the league. All 13 of those games had over/under lines which fell in the 36 to 42.5 range. Tonight's total is significantly higher than any of them and I feel that provides us with excellent value. The Texans admittedly haven't been among the league's best defensive teams this season. That being said, they're coming off a terrific effort on that side of the ball. Last week, Houston went in to Cleveland and limited the Browns to just 240 total yards and a mere six points, including 0 in the second half. It was the second time in the last five games that the Texans had held an opponent to less than seven points for an entire game. Jacksonville saw last week's game slip above the total. However, that was a much lower number than tonight's and game still only produced 42 combined points. The Jags have now seen six of their last seven games produce fewer than 48 combined points. The Jags were embarrassed by last week's performance and I expect them to respond with a big effort on defense. Note that even though this year has been a major disappointment, Jacksonville is still only allowing 18 points per game on the road. The Jags have seen the UNDER go 3-1 the last four times that they played a game with an over/under line in the +3 to -3 range and 3-0 the last three times they played on Monday night. Look for tonight's game to also fall beneath the generous number. *Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
CBB

I'm laying the small number with VIRGINIA TECH. Both these teams have been solid defensively while putting up similar numbers on offense to start the season. The Hokies are averaging 68 points per game while the Badgers are averaging 67. The Hokies have a couple of important advantages in their favor though. For starters, the game is being played at Cassell Coliseum. That's worth noting as the Hokies are perfect here on the season, most recently knocking off Elon by double-digits. Additionally, the Hokies have the schedule in their favor. Both teams were involved in a tournament last week. The Hokies were at Puerto Rico while the Badgers played at the US Virgin Islands. The Hokies wrapped up their trip last Sunday though and returned home for a home game on Wednesday. Conversely, the Badgers finished their trip on Monday and then had to fly back for Madison for a game vs. instate rival Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Additionally, they've got an even bigger instate rival (Marquette) on deck. The Badgers have a pair of players averaging double-digits in scoring. Hughes has 14.2 while Landry has 12.5. However, the Hokies have a trio of scorers ALL averaging over 16 per game. In addition to having the homecourt and scheduling advantage, I also believe that this game will be bigger for Virginia Tech, as the Hokies rarely get to host ranked non-conference teams. Look for them to give a huge effort, earning the win and cover and handing the Badgers another loss in the Big Ten/ACC challenge. *Personal Favorite

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's 7* Monday Night Mismatch (12-3 run)

Larry won TWO of his three NFL reports on Sunday (3-2 in games) and is now 9-3 (75.0%) with his NFL plays s/Week 11! He's had few problems on Mondays TY, going 8-4 (67%)! "The winning continues" tonight with his 7* Monday Night Mismatch. The pointspread says "close game" but Larry says "not so!" Who do you believe?

Virginia Tech

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's MONDAY NIGHT COLLEGE HOOPS TV WINNER!

At 7 pm, in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge on ESPN 2, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Jaguars
Millionaire- San Francisco

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday College Opinions
UC Riverside (+16) over NORTHWESTERN
UC Riverside applies to a 24-1 ATS subset of a 106-41 ATS early season angle that is already 4-0 for me this season. However, I’m going to pass on this one as a Best Bet given how well Northwestern has been playing so far. Using this year’s games only would favor Northwestern by 20 ½ points even after including the predicted super slow pace of this game and my ratings favor the Wildcats by 17 ½ points. The line is getting closer to fair, as it opened at 14 points and has headed higher, but it’s still not quite high enough for me to make UCR a Best Bet. I’ll lean with Riverside based on the very strong indicator and I’d take UC Riverside as a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.

Idaho (+2) over SACRAMENTO STATE
Idaho is an improved team under first year coach Don Verlin, who has brought in some new players that can score the basketball. Idaho’s top 4 scorers weren’t with the team last season and the Vandals are shooting 47% from the field and 42% from 3-point range. Sacramento State is still a bad team that doesn’t play much defense (50% FG allowed and 44% on 3-pointers) and my ratings favor Idaho by 1 point in this game. I’ll lean with Idaho as an underdog based on the line value.