12-3-08

[Mr. IWS]

::dance::

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

UL LAFAYETTE (-5.0) 34 Middle Tenn 27
04:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Dec-03 - Stats Matchup
UL Lafayette quarterback Michael Desormeaux appears to be fully recovered from the sprained ankle that kept him out of the week 8 game against Arkansas State and limited his running for a couple of weeks after his return to the lineup. Desormeaux scampered for 145 yards on 12 rushing plays against Troy in the Ragin Cajuns’ most recent game and he’s now run for 878 yards at 7.4 yards per rushing play this season. Desormeaux is also a decent passer (6.6 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yppp to an average QB) – although he does throw too many interceptions (5% int pct) – and he should be too much for Middle Tennessee State in this game. Middle Tennessee’s hopes lie with senior quarterback Joe Craddock, who has posted solid numbers for an offense without a rushing attack and Craddock should thrive against ULL’s soft defense in this game. It probably won’t be enough, however, as my math model favors Lafayette by 7 ½ points.

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with SIENA. I won with the Saints in their first game of the season. In that game, they crushed Boise State by 30 points. At the time, I noted that Sienna had returned all its starters from last year's team which defeated Vanderbilt in the NCAA Tournament. I didn't play the Saints in their next game but noted that they beat up on Cornell, earning another cover. I also stayed off the Saints in their next three games. Those were tournament games against top tier teams like Tennessee and Oklahoma State. The Saints went 0-3 SU/ATS in those games. Those results work in our favor in a couple of different ways here. For starters, they've kept tonight's line reasonably low. If the Saints had won one of those games, tonight's number could easily have been in the double-digits. Additionally, those results should have the Saints in an "angry" mood tonight and should have them looking to take their frustration out on a much weaker opponent. Note that the Saints were 2-0 SU/ATS as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range the past couple of years, 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) their last four in that role. Overall, the Saints were 17-10 ATS in 27 road lined games the past two seasons. During the same stretch, Loyola-Md was just 9-14 ATS in 23 home lined games. The Greyhounds have lost four of five. That includes a double-digit home loss to Cornell, the same team that Sienna smashed. Last year, the Saints had to rally from a 17-point deficit to defeat the Greyhounds in the semifinals of the 2008 MAAC Tournament. However, while the Saints bring back all the key components from that team the Greyhounds lose leading-scorer Gerald Brown as well as the starting frontcourt of Omari Israel and Michael Tuck. Look for those losses to be too much for the Greyhounds to overcome this evening as the Saints close out their road trip and tip-off MAAC play with a double-digit victory. *MAAC GOW



BEN BURNS

I'm playing on the Lakers and 76ers to finish UNDER the total. These teams were both involved in high-scoring road games last night. The Lakers went back and forth in an up-tempo game vs. the Pacers. The teams combined for a whopping 235 points with a final score of 118-117 in favor of Indiana. Before over-reacting to that game, note that even with that result, the UNDER is still a profitable 4-2 when the Lakers have played on the road this season and 11-6 their last 17 road games, dating back to last season. Its also worth mentioning that the Lakers have seen the UNDER go 11-5 the last 16 times that they played a road game with a total in the 200 to 204.5 range. Perhaps more importantly, note that the Lakers have seen the UNDER go 4-0 the last four times that they played the second of back to back games. Last night, the Lakers faced a poor defensive team which was happy to run with them. Tonight, they'll face a much better defensive team which will attempt to slow the pace. Note that the 76ers have seen the UNDER go 4-0-1 against teams with a winning record this season. Last night, the 76ers went into Chicago and beat the Bulls by a score of 103-95. That score is deceiving though as 18 of those points were scored in overtime. The 76ers actually played excellent defense, as the Bulls had scored in triple-digits in six of their previous eight games. Prior to that game, Philadelphia coach Maurice Cheeks had indicated that he wanted to turn up the defensive intensity. He was quoted as saying: "We have to get ourselves back in the mind-set of defending..." Evidently, he got the message to his players. Now, the 76ers return home where they are allowing 91 points and where they've seen the UNDER go 5-2-2. Look for this evening's final score to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting with the UNDER improving to 11-6 the last 17 times that the Lakers traveled to Philadelphia. *Non-Conf. TOM


BEN BURNS

I'm playing on Middle Tennessee State and La-Lafayette to finish UNDER the total. This is a huge game for both teams. That's because both teams currently have five victories. The winner of this game will become bowl eligible and would then have a solid opportunity to play in either the Independence Bowl or the PapaJohns.com Bowl. Playing at home, the Rajin' Cajuns come in as the favorite. They've played high-scoring games this season, having seen seven of 11 games finish above the total. Two of the primary reasons for their high-scoring games have been a fairly potent offense and an inability to stop the run. The Cajuns inability to stop the run of late hasn't been helped by injuries at the linebacker position. That being said, the Blue Raiders have struggled to run the ball all year (2.8 ypc and 89 ypg on the road) and the Cajuns have been quite a lot better against the pass. With so much on the line, I expect the defense to respond with a much better effort tonight. As far as the "potent offense," the Cajuns are dealing with several injuries that have really slowed them down on that side of the ball. The offensive line is banged-up as are both quarterback Michael Desormeaux and running back Tyrell Fenroy. Fenroy, who leads the Sun Belt with 1,292 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns, was injured in the last game vs. Troy and managed to rush for only 23 yards as a result. I will assume that he'll play tonight but he may not be 100% and as mentioned, the offensive line also has some issues. The Cajuns will face a Blue Raiders' defense which is currently playing excellent football. Middle Tennessee State allowed 13 points last time out and just 10 in it last road game. For the season, the Blue Raiders have seen seven of their 11 games stay below the total, with those games averaging only 45.8 points. Their seven conference games have averaged slightly less, at 44.7 points per game. Not surprisingly, five of those games dipped below the number. The Blue Raiders, who have averaged less than 20 points per game on the road this season, have seen the UNDER go 9-4-1 the last 14 times that they were getting points, including a 3-0 mark the last three times that they were road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. They've also seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times that they were coming off a bye. Additionally, they've seen the UNDER go a perfect 4-0 the last four times that they played a road game with an over/under in the 56.5 to 63 range. Look for tonight's game to prove lower-scoring than most are expecting once again. *Main Event


BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with MILWAUKEE. The Bulls knocked off the Bucks at Chicago to begin the season but the Bucks have both homecourt and a significant scheduling advantage in their favor for tonight's rematch. The Bulls are off a hard-fought overtime loss vs. the 76ers last night and will now be playing their third game in four nights. Note that the Bulls are 3-5 ATS the last eight times that they played the second of back to back games. Last night was their first game back home off a seven game road trip and now they are right back on the road again tonight. In other words, they will now be playing in their ninth different city in their last nine games. On the other hand, the Bucks come in well-rested, as they haven't played since 11/29. They got star Michael Redd back for that game, which makes them a much better team. Redd was "rusty" (still scored 20 points) but with a game under his belt and another few days of rest since that time, he should be much stronger tonight. Note that he had 30 points in the earlier loss to Chicago, and is averaging a whopping 32.5 points per games against the Bulls since 2006-07. The Bucks, who are 5-3 ATS the last eight times they played with three or more day's rest in between games, have gone a profitable 12-6-1 ATS this season, including 2-0 ATS the last two times they were listed as favorites. They're also 2-0 ATS this season after scoring 85 points or less in their previous game. Look for the revenge-minded Bucks to be the fresher team tonight and for that to lead to a convincing win and cover. *Annihilator.

[Mr. IWS]

LANG

Wednesday

10 Dime Middle Tennessee State - Louisiana-Lafayette might be on a 4-1 run in this series, but the Cajuns are coming in riding a three-game losing streak. And since the Blue Raiders are on a three-game win streak and are looking to become bowl eligible with a win tonight, I?m thinking we?re safe in taking the underdog in what should be a scrap to the end. Lafayette is also looking to become bowl eligible, so it won?t be that easy, but even still, this is a field-goal contest at best.


Understand that three of Middle Tennessee?s losses came at the hands of Kentucky, Louisville and Mississippi State. Quite a contingent ? two from the SEC and one from the Big East ? and it?s competition like that that has helped this team ride winning spread streaks into this contest, such as 11-3 following a straight-up win, 7-2 after an ATS victory, and 10-4 against teams with a losing record.


Now keep in mind we?re not just taking the underdog, we?re siding with a team that has ridden this win streak behind an average final score of 32.3-14.7. On the other hand, Lafayette hasn?t just lost three in row, it has been humiliated, losing by an average final of 41.7-18.7.


Middle Tennessee State is in revenge after it laid 13-1/2 points at home and ended up losing by 10 to the Cajuns. It marked the fifth straight season the underdog won outright in the series, which means we?re most certainly at an advantage with the pup in this year?s game.


FREE - Over Middle Tennessee State/La Lafayette (See daily video for your analysis)

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness | CBB Sides
double-dime bet566 Air Force -7.5 (-110) BetUS vs 565 N.Illinois
MASSIVE MISMATCH 15* Air Force.

Larry Ness | CBB Sides
double-dime bet548 Temple -3.5 (-110) BetUS vs 547 Miami (Ohio)

' Oddsmaker's Error Temple.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' ACC/Big 10 Challenge 9*

Maryland

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns' NHL PERSONAL FAVORITE ***5-0 RUN*** - Wednesday
I'm laying the price with EDMONTON. I won with the Stars when these teams faced each other at Dallas over the weekend. At the time, I noted that the situation favored the Stars and that the Oilers would have a much better chance of earning a victory when they hosted the Stars on Wednesday. In addition to the home ice factor, one of my reasons for making that statement was the schedule. Prior to defeating the Oilers at Dallas, the Stars had enjoyed the previous night off while Edmonton had been playing. Tonight, the situations are reversed. Dallas comes in off a game last night (at Calgary) while Edmonton has been idle since Sunday's game. With Dallas an ugly 1-8 the last nine times it played the second of back to back games, let's back the revenge-minded and well-rested Oilers to earn a rare win in this series. *Personal Favorite.

[Chico1856]

DR BOB

5 Wednesday Basketball Best Bets, one in the NBA and 4 in college (plus 5
opinions)

Orlando (-9) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars up to -11 Cornell (+18) 2-Stars at +17 or more.
Michigan (+6) 3-Stars at +5 or more, 2-Stars down to +4.
Boise State (-3 1/2) 2-Stars at -5 or less.
Northwestern (-2) 3-Stars at -4 or less, 2-Stars up to -5.



3 Star Selection
***ORLANDO (-9) over Minnesota
04:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 508
Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy has always been good at getting his teams up for games against bad teams and he's always been good at getting this teams to rebound from a loss. Tonight the Magic are coming off a loss and hosting a bad team. Van Gundy's teams at Miami and Orlando are now 72-46-2 ATS in games following a loss and they are 52-24-4 ATS as a favorite of 5 points or more when rested and facing a team with a losing record. My ratings favor the Magic by 12 points in this game and I'll take Orlando in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less and for 2-Stars at -10 ½ or -11 points.

2 Star Selection
**Cornell (+18) over SYRACUSE
04:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 525
Syracuse has been very impressive with a 6-0 start that includes victories over Florida and Kansas, but the Orange have let up a bit against weaker teams (0-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite) and Jim Boeheim's teams have always had a tendency to letdown as a home favorite on a win streak.
Syracuse is 30-62-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or more following consecutive victories, including just 9-35-2 ATS if their most recent win was by 15 points or more. Cornell, meanwhile, is coming off an upset loss at Indiana, but Steve Donahue's club is 33-13 ATS away from home following a loss and the Big Red apply to a 33-13 ATS big road underdog bounce-back situation. Cornell is a veteran team that hasn't shot the ball as well as they're capable of, but they rarely play poorly in consecutive game and are 2-0 ATS this season after a loss. My ratings favor Syracuse by only 16 points and I'll take Cornell in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.

3 Star Selection
***Michigan (+6) over MARYLAND
04:30 PM Pacific - Rotation 545
Michigan is an improved team in year two of the John Beilein era (they won just 10 games last season) and they've played well despite making just 28.7% of their 3-point shots. The Wolverines apply to a very strong 94-29-1 ATS early season indicator that I'm 3-1 using so far this season (the one loss was by ½ a point on USF against UCSB when the Gauchos hit a meaningless 3-pointer at the buzzer). My ratings using this years games only would favor Maryland by 5 ½ points, which is where the line opened, but the Terrapins have had some random good luck on their side given that their opponents, who combine to average 67.5% on their free throws, have made just 59.1% from the charity stripe against the Terps. That works out to nearly 2 points a game in random good luck, so I could justify a fair line of Maryland by 4 points in this game. Michigan shoots 79.3% from the line as a team, so Maryland isn't likely to benefit from opponents missed free throws in this game. I'll take Michigan in a 3-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 2-Stars at +4 ½ or +4 points.

3 Star Selection
***NORTHWESTERN (-2) over Florida State
06:30 PM Pacific - Rotation 576
Northwestern had a horrible 8 win campaign in 2007-08, but the Wildcats are a much improved team this season and they aren't getting the respect that they deserve. Northwestern is shooting 49% from the field while holding their opponents to 39% shooting and I have them rated as the 43rd best team in the nation even after throwing out their 81-39 opening night blowout win over a bad Central Arkansas team. Florida State is coming off a couple of solid wins in Las Vegas over Cincinnati and Cal, but I rate the Seminoles a bit below Northwestern even after tossing out their lackluster performances in home games against bad teams Coastal Carolina and Western Illinois. I would get Northwestern by 12 ½ points in this game if I included every game for each team equally (compensated for the strength of opponent and site, of course), but Florida State obviously letdown in their home games against bad teams and Northwestern did just the opposite. However, using only games against quality teams still results in my ratings favor Northwestern by 4 ½ points, which I think is a fair line in this game. In addition to the line value the Wildcats apply to a very good 106-41-1 ATS early season indicator that is 34-8 ATS when applying to home teams. I'll take Northwestern in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 2-Stars at -4 ½ or -5 points.


2 Star Selection
**BOISE STATE (-3 ½) over Wyoming
06:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 568
Boise State played one horrible game this season, a 30 point loss at Siena, that has dragged down their average game rating while Wyoming has had one big win (by 26 points over Bakersfield) that has skewed their average rating higher. Boise has gone 3-0 straight up and 2-0 ATS since losing to Siena an Wyoming has had 3 close home wins over bad division 1 teams since their opening route of Bakersfield. My ratings dampen the affect of outliers and I favor Boise State by 5 ½ points in this game. In addition to the line value, Boise State applies to a 91-32-6 ATS subset of a 210-123-10 ATS non-conference home team momentum situation. I'll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less.

Wednesday College Opinions
HOFSTRA (-13) over Fordham
Fordham under-performed last season with 5 returning starters and this year's Rams squad is among the worst teams in the nation with a brand new cast of losers. The Rams have lost their 5 games by an average of 17.6 points despite facing a pretty easy schedule that is actually about 8 points easier than what they face tonight visiting Hofstra. Fordham is only 18-39-2 ATS under coach Dereck Whittenburg as an underdog of more than 2 points away from home and I'll favor Hofstra to cover what looks like a pretty low number.

OHIO (-1 ½) over Tulsa
Ohio is 25-4 ATS in their last 29 home games when not favored by more than 3 points, as their great straight up record at Convocation Center has been just as much due to beat good teams as it has been beating bad teams. That trend may change with a new head coach this season, but Ohio covered the spread in their only home game this season and they're playing well so far this season. I'll lean with the Bobcats at -3 or less and I'll keep my eye on how this trend performs under a new head man.

GEORGIA TECH (-7) over Penn State
Georgia Tech applies to a 43-14-1 ATS subset of a 125-57-3 ATS situation tonight, but my ratings only favor the Yellow Jackets by 6 points in this game and I'm not in the habit of giving up a point of line value to force a Best Bet. The line has already come down from the opening number of 8 points, but I'll just lean with Georgia Tech at -7 or -6 ½ and I'd take Georgia Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less.

AIR FORCE (-8 ½) over Northern Illinois
Playing in high altitude is an advantage for Air Force against teams from sea-level, especially non-conference opponents that aren't used to the thin air. Air Force hasn't been much better than 50% overall at home, but the Falcons apply to a very good 213-111-6 ATS high-altitude home team angle that is 32-9 ATS if the home team has revenge against a non-conference opponent. Northern Illinois is a horrible team, but Air Force hasn't played well this season either and my ratings only favor the Falcons by 7 points in this game. I'm hoping the line comes down a bit, but I'll lean with Air Force at -8 or less and I'd take Air Force in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.

Siena (-8) over LOYOLA MARYLAND
Siena returned all 5 starters from last year's 23-11 team, but the Saints are mysteriously shooting just 27% from 3-point range this year after knocking down 38% from beyond the arc last season. Even with the poor outside shooting my ratings still favor Siena by 8 points using this year's games only and the Saints have been particularly good on the road under coach Fran McCaffery, going 28-11 ATS on the road (5-0 ATS as a favorite of
5 or more), including 21-5 ATS in conference road games. Siena is also 24-8 ATS after a loss under McCaffery (although 0-2 in that role this year) and I expect the Saints to be well focused for this game after suffering 3 losses in 4 days in Orlando last week. Siena is 14-1 ATS on the road after a loss and Loyola Maryland is just 12-20-1 ATS at home (compared to 27-13-1 ATS on the road). I'll lean with Siena based on the teams trends