12-4-08

[Mr. IWS]

:burn:

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

RUTGERS (-10.0) 35 Louisville 22
04:45 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Dec-04 - Stats Matchup
Rutgers started the season a surprising 0-3 straight up and 0-3 ATS, but the Scarlet Knights are a perfect 7-0 ATS since then and have won 5 consecutive games entering this contest. Senior quarterback Mike Teel has regained his deep touch and speedster Kenny Britt ahs been the beneficiary with 27 catches for 477 yards in Rutgers’ last 3 games. Louisville’s secondary is down two starters in SS Latarrius Thomas and top CB Woodny Turenne and that unit has been exploited in the last 4 games for an average of 8.4 yards per pass play while the front 7 has recorded a total of zero sacks in those games. Teel still has a tendency to throw interceptions but Rutgers should score plenty of points in this game. Louisville, meanwhile, is a bit below average offensively and Rutgers is a bit below average defensively, so the Cardinals aren’t likely to keep up with what their defense allows a hot Rutgers’ attack. My math model favors Rutgers by 13 points, which is where the line opened, and I’ll lean with the Scarlet Knights based on the line value.

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's 45-12 COLLEGE BASKETBALL ROADKILL WINNER -- Thursday

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes plus the points over St Marys.

BIG AL's NCAA BASKETBALL GAME OF THE MONTH (ON TV) -- Thursday

At 8 pm, on ESPN U, our selection is on the Cleveland State Vikings minus the points over Butler.

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with LOUISVILLE. Its true that Rutgers comes in as the much hotter team. However, I feel that Louisville is much better than recent results indicate and that the Cardinals, who will be looking to avoid a losing record and become bowl eligible, will deliver a highly motivated effort. Last season's meeting was decided by just three points with the Cardinals winning by a score of 41-38. I played on Louisville in that game and the Cardinals covered as -2 point favorites, rallying back from a deficit to do so. Looking at the previous meeting, which was here at Rutgers, and we find that it was also decided by just a field goal, with the Scarlet Knights earning a 28-35 victory. I feel that tonight's game could easily come down to the wire once again and that the large pointspread provides excellent value with Cardinals. These teams have almost identical offensive numbers. Rutgers is averaging 25.9 points and 370 yards per game. Louisville is averaging 25.6 and 381. That being said, I believe that the Cardinals will be able to trade points with their hosts. Louisville, which has gone 5-1 SU/ATS the last six times that it was coming in off a bye, isn't typically this big an underdog. However, if we look back several years, we find the Cardinals at a profitable 7-3 ATS the last 10 times they were underdogs of greater than eight points. Look for them to bounce back with a huge effort, earning at least another cover. *Big East GOM

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on the Chargers and Raiders to finish UNDER the total. Despite the teams combining for four touchdowns in the final minutes, we finally saw a Monday night game finish below the total last week. I expect another relatively low-scoring contest for this Thursday evening AFC West clash. Both teams are coming off losses which finished below the total. The Raiders combined with the Chiefs for 33 points, losing 20-13. Quarterback JaMarcus Russell struggled again and the Raiders gained just 271 total yards of offense. Meanwhile, the Chargers were upset by the Falcons, dropping a 22-16 decision, while gaining a mere 201 total yards, a season-low. These teams saw their earlier meeting finish with a final score of 28-18. That score was deceiving though and the game could have easily been much lower-scoring. In fact, the Raiders had a 15-3 lead in the fourth quarter. The Chargers scored 10 points in the final two minutes with Tomlinson breaking a big play for a touchdown with one minute to go. That came as they were just trying to run out the clock and was the reason that the Chargers, who still only managed 295 total yards, covered the spread. That late touchdown was also the reason that the game finished above the total, or pushed, depending on when and where one played. As I said, it could have easily been lower-scoring. Counting the earlier meeting as an 'over,' the Chargers have seen the UNDER go 6-4 when listed as a favorite and 6-3 when facing an AFC opponent. Meanwhile, the Raiders have seen the UNDER go 7-4 as an underdog and 7-3 when playing on grass. The Raiders have also seen the UNDER go 8-2-1 when coming off a divisional loss and 7-1 their last eight games overall. The UNDER is also 7-1 the last eight times that the Raiders traveled to San Diego. In fact, if we look back further, we find the UNDER at a profitable 16-4 the last 20 years when the Raiders have played here. With the Raiders averaging just 14.3 points and 263 total yards per game, I look for those numbers to improve again this evening. *AFC TOW

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with SAN ANTONIO. The Spurs enter tonight's game with payback on their minds as the Nuggets upset them at San Antonio earlier. That's worth noting as the Spurs, 18-9 their last 27 games at Denver, typically fare well when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. They're 44-23 SU the last 67 times they faced an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. During the same stretch the Spurs, who are coming off a home loss to the Pistons, are 44-19 SU the last 63 times that they are coming off a game vs. an Eastern Conference opponent, 19-10 when coming off a double-digit loss AND an outstanding 33-10 when coming off a game in which they scored 85 points or less. The Spurs finally had Duncan, Parker and Ginobli on the floor together last time out, as Ginobli made his first start since returning from injury. However, as is often the case in the first game when a star (or stars) comes back, the team suffered a bit of an overall letdown. The Spurs played the Pistons tough for a half but suffered a second half meltdown. Coach Popovich was very critical of the effort and was quoted as saying: "The most disturbing thing is that we were very soft. I think Detroit intimidated us. It was really sad to watch in that respect. I thought we totally folded to their aggressive play." I expect those comments and the previous loss to provide a motivating effect and for the Spurs to bounce back with a huge effort. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Revenge GOW-CBB

Washington





Larry Ness' 7* MASSIVE MISMATCH-CBB: 4-1 TY


Oklahoma

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

20 Dime Rutgers - At home in Jersey, nothing more we could ask for with the Scarlet Knights against an injury-riddled secondary that features a true freshman and a walk-on to tighten the reins on opposing passing games, and that won?t cut it against quarterback Mike Teel. Look for the strong-armed senior to have a banner night ? along with 17 other seniors who will play their final regular season game in front of the home crowd. Quite honestly, I wouldn?t be surprised if Teel has a career night with the help of receivers Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood and tight end Shamar Graves.

Louisville?s defense ranks 80th nationally against the pass, giving up more than 220 yards per game, so anything?s possible tonight and a blowout win would be ever-so sweet for the Knights. See, even though Rutgers holds a 5-2 edge in the series, Louisville has won two of the three meetings since joining the Big East in 2005.

This is a big game for the Knights, who could enhance their chances for a better bowl invite by winning their seventh game of the season. A blowout win on national television makes them look more exciting, and enticing, as a bowl participant. Lay the chalk with Rutgers tonight.

5 Dime Teaser Raiders and Over - No need to get long-winded on a crap game like this, but the fact is when you find value in a teaser, you take advantage of it. We?re catching a ton of points with this tease in an old-school rivalry that fell on 10 in the first meeting, and since then the Raiders have pulled off wins over the AFC East-leading Jets and the AFC West-leading Broncos. And something about these two getting together brings the best out of the offense, as the last three totals have landed on 46, 47 and 42. By teasing the line up to about 15 points at some places and the total down to somewhere around 35 or 36, we should be just fine in this AFC West-rivalry.



FREE - Over Louisville/Rutgers

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Louisville
Millionaire- Nuggets
Money Maker- UCLA

[Mr. IWS]

RAS TOTALS.. 1 PLAY TODAY


Western Michigan/Virginia Commonwealth (Over 134)
Rating: 1.00 UNIT

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
College of Charleston (-5) over ELON
04-Dec-08 04:00 PM Pacific Time
College of Charleston had a rare down year last season, but former Georgia Tech coach Bobby Cremins has all 5 of last year’s starters returning and the Cougars are playing very well and come into their Southern Conference opener riding a 4 game win streak and a win over South Carolina in their most recent game. Elon, meanwhile, has been dreadful so far this season and my ratings using this year’s games only would favor Charleston by 12 points. Elon, however, aren’t likely to continue to be as bad as they’ve been so far this season and using my pre-season rating on the Phoenix would result in a line of Charleston by 7 points. Road favorites sometimes have a tendency to relax a bit, but that isn’t the case in conference openers, which tend to eliminate any possible letdown. Charleston applies to a 36-12 ATS subset of a 124-81-2 ATS conference opening road favorite angle and Cremins’ team has had no trouble winning on the road. The Cougars are 16-8-1 ATS on the road under Cremins, including 8-2 ATS as a road favorite, and Cremins is at his best when he’s had at least a couple of days off to prepare for his opponent. Charleston is 23-11-1 ATS under Cremins when they’ve had 2 or more days off between games, including 6-0 ATS as a road favorite. I’ll take College of Charleston at -6 points or less in a 2-Star Best Bet.
2-Stars at -6 or less.

3 Star Selection
Detroit (+4 1/2) over WISCONSIN MILWAUKEE
04-Dec-08 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Detroit sunk to levels they had rarely seen last season, as the Titans suffered through a 7-23 campaign in coach Perry Watson’s final season. Detroit is on the rebound with new coach Ray McCallum and a cast of new players that have raised the talent level. McCallum has also raised the level of intensity on the defensive side of the floor, as the Titans are now slightly better than average defensively (after compensating for opponents’ offense) after being horrible defensively last season. Detroit’s top 3 scorers and their best defender are all newcomers (3 transfers and a freshman) and the Titans have covered the spread in 3 consecutive games after struggling mightily on offense in their first two games. Milwaukee, meanwhile, played well in their opener against a horrible Loyola Marymount team, but they are 0-4-1 ATS since then and are now without veteran pointguard Ricky Franklin, who was suspended prior to the Panthers’ 21 point loss at Wisconsin and is out indefinitely. My ratings only favor Milwaukee by 2 points and Detroit applies to the same 95-29-1 ATS early season indicator that applied to Ball State in their 13 point win as a 6 ½ point dog at Wisconsin-Milwaukee last Tuesday. I’m hoping for similar results tonight and I’ll take Detroit in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars at +2 ½ or +2 points.
3-Stars at +3 or more, 2-Stars at +2 1/2 or +2.

[Mr. IWS]

burns nhl

montreal
hurricanes
lightning
predators
coyotes