12-5-08

[Mr. IWS]

::moneybag::

[Mr. IWS]

Lang's Friday:

5 Dime 6-Point Teaser Buffalo and Over - Real going real light with this one tonight, as the big play is on the 30-Dimer for Saturday. This is just to whet the appetite.

And there's no better way than a teaser in the MAC with the Over. That's generally a safe bet - the over on a tease - and we'll get it done with a Buffalo team that has been on a mission the entire season and most certainly looks good with 20 points on its side, while the over sitting in the mid-50s looks too easy.

Alright so here’s my reasoning with the Bulls getting all these points: the Navy Midshipmen. Huh? I know, now you’re really confused … but follow me here. In Ball State’s second game this season the Middies lost by 12 points to the Cardinals, and it was because of the rushing game and a victory in time of possession. Navy held the ball 33:01, as opposed to Ball State’s 26:59.

The Cardinals have the 67th-ranked rushing defense in the nation, and when facing that run-oriented Navy team, they couldn’t pull away for the double-digit win until the fourth quarter. Until then, it was 28-23 Ball State. Enter Buffalo, which admittedly has a better passing offense but has to establish a running game to keep the ball out of the Cardinals’ hands if it wants to win this football game.

We’ll get the over because the fact is Ball State is going to score against the 93rd ranked defense, but the Bulls also need to score to keep up – they’ll just do it tactfully. They do have the 36th ranked offense that scores 30.17 points per game, so they are capable of putting points on the board. But the key is to establish that running game. Control the tempo, run the ball, and keep it inside of three touchdowns. That’s the goal tonight. Let’s get it done with this 6-point teaser on Buffalo and Over.

FREE - Buffalo/Ball State (See daily video for your analysis in this game)

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's 100% (8-0) CONF TITLE GAME OF THE YEAR -- Friday

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls plus the points over Ball State.

College Conference Title Game of the Year on Buffalo.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NBA

Larry takes a break from the CBB hardwood (22-10-1 (68.8%) since November 20) to 'tackle' the NBA on Friday. While it's a big card (11 games), Larry has just one play. He and his "unmatched" contacts are "all over" one game and as regulars have come to learn, "it pays to be on the insde with Larry," in all sports. Want in?

NJ Nets

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

Mid American Conference
Ball St. (-15.0) 35 Buffalo 24 (at Detroit)
05:00 PM Pacific Time Friday, Dec-05
Unbeaten Ball State should move the 13-0, but Buffalo is capable of hanging tough is they continue to avoid turnovers. Buffalo is just average on offense (5.7 yppl with RB Starks playing against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and 0.6 yppl worse than average defensively (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team), but veteran quarterback Drew Willy has thrown just 5 interceptions in 12 games (and just 6 each of the previous two seasons) and the Bulls have lost just 6 fumbles all season. Ball State, meanwhile, rates at 0.9 yppl better than average on offense since losing star receiver Dante Love in week 4 and the Cardinals are 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively. Buffalo should move the ball at an average clip, but they’ll have trouble stopping Nate Davis (9.6 yards per pass attempt) and MiQuale Lewis (1570 yards at 5.7 ypr). Davis has only thrown 6 interceptions all season, so Buffalo isn’t likely to have the turnover advantage that they’ve been fortunate to have in most games (+13 in turnover margin this season). However, my math model only 13 points and there is a lot of pressure on Ball State in this game and the Cardinals could be playing not to lose more than playing to win. I’ll lean with Buffalo plus the points.

[Duce]

Anyone have Wayne Root? Thanks

[Mr. IWS]

Burns - CFB BB Buff - CBB Main Event A&M
NBA Annil Wizards

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Wizards
Millionaire- Texas A&M

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with TEXAS A&M. The betting public will see a big name team like Arizona getting points and will be quick to back the underdog here. However, the Aggies are favored for good reason. Texas A&M is no longer a doormat in the Big 12. The Aggies' success has resulted in three consecutive NCAA Tournament bids. Last year, Mark Turgeon took over from Billy Gillespie and still got his team to second round of the NCAA Tournament where they lost by just two points vs. UCLA. This year's teams brings back leading scorer Josh Carter as well as forward Bryan Davis They've got some solid returning veterans like Chinemelu Elonu, Derrick Roland and Donald Sloan. Sloan, Davis and Carter are all currently averaging 12 or more points per game. Additionally, they've got a pair of exciting newcomers in forward David Loubeau and speedy point guard Dashan Harris. Like their guests, the Aggies are 5-1 on the season. They've been dominant at home, outscoring the opposition by a 77.7 to 59.5 margin. While Turgeon is in his second year, the Wildcats are still adjusting to Russ Pennell, who took over as their interim head coach when Lute Olson announced his retirement on Oct. 23. The Wildcats do have a couple of stars but aren't as talented as some of Olsen's teams of the past. They also lack overall depth and I expect that to be an issue this evening. The Aggies have payback on their minds as they were defeated by Arizona last season, in Turgeon's first year, despite having a double-digit first half lead. That game was at Tuscon though and Arizona star Jerryd Bayless was the difference with 26 points. Bayless isn't around anymore (drafted by Pacers) and tonight's game is in Texas. Look for the revenge-minded Aggies, who are 14-5-1 ATS the last 20 times they were favored by four points or less, to rise to the occasion with a huge effort. *Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON. I feel that this line is too high. We know that the Lakers have been playing very well. However, the Wizards have also been playing much better of late, since Ed Tapscott took over as head coach. They've won just one of their past three games. However, the two losses came by just six and four points. Including their pointspread victories in each of their last two games, the Wizards are now a profitable 21-8-2 ATS (21-10) their last 31 games played in December. They've played nine home games this season and only one of those games resulted in a loss of greater than 12 points, a 15-point setback vs. Orlando. The Wizards have also played the Lakers tough in recent years. In fact, Washington has won four of the last nine series meetings and only one of its five losses during that stretch came by more than a dozen points. It's also worth mentioning that the Wizards are a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range. The Lakers are already 0-2 ATS (1-1 SU) on the season when playing a road game with an over/under line of 210 or greater and I look for the Wizards to give them a much tougher game than expected here. *Annihilator