Mr. IWS
12-06-2008, 08:05 AM
DR.BOB
Cincinnati (-7.5) 26 HAWAII 24
08:30 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Dec-06 - Stats Matchup
Cincinnati has already wrapped up a BCS Bowl game by winning the Big East, so it may be tough for the Bearcats to see this as anything other than a vacation. Teams that play their last regular season game of the season in Hawaii are just 11-22 ATS as favorites in that game, including 2-12 ATS if they played the previous week and Hawaii is a .500 team or better, as is the case this in this game. In addition to the natural tendency to take things easy on the Island, the Bearcats also apply to a very negative 18-77-3 ATS road letdown situation while Hawaii applies to a 189-87-6 ATS home momentum situation. The Warriors have thrived since Greg Alexander took over at quarterback in week 9 against Nevada, going 4-1 straight up in those games. Aside from being better on a yards per pass play basis than the other Hawaii quarterbacks, Alexander also has thrown just 1 interception in those 5 games and has thrown just 3 picks for the season on 164 pass attempts (he threw 2 in the opener against Florida in relief). The other Hawaii quarterbacks have combined to throw 17 interceptions on 240 pass attempts, which is why Hawaii struggled the first half of the season despite being a pretty good team from the line of scrimmage. Hawaii is 0.1 yppl better than average offensively with Alexander at the helm and the Warriors are average defensively. That’s not great, but it’s probably good enough to compete with a less than focused Cincinnati team. The only problem with this game is that my math model favors Cincy by 10 points if they are focused and play their normal game, so I will not make Hawaii a Best Bets even with all the strong technical indicators. I’ll consider Hawaii a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more and I’d take Hawaii in a 2-Star Best Bet at +9 points or more.
Big Twelve Conference
Oklahoma (-16.5) 45 Missouri 35 (at Kansas City)
05:00 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Dec-06 - Stats Matchup
I lost my Best Bet on Oklahoma State as a dog against Oklahoma last week, but I still think it was a pretty good bet. After all, Oklahoma State averaged 7.1 yards per play and scored almost every time they didn’t turn the ball over (they punted just twice, but turned the ball over twice while Oklahoma had zero turnovers) while Oklahoma averaged 6.8 yppl and would have averaged 5.9 yppl if not for a 73 yard TD pass that was initially broken up by the Cowboys before miraculously landing in the hands of an Oklahoma receiver 15 yards down the field with a clear path to the endzone. Now the Sooners are a 16 ½ point favorite over a good Missouri team, which is a line that simply can’t be justified. Oklahoma has an outstanding offense that has averaged 7.2 yppl and 53 points per game against Division 1A opponents and the Sooners rate at 2.2 yppl better than average with quarterback Sam Bradford under center. Missouri’s defense is 0.3 yppl better than average, which is the same as the average of teams that Oklahoma has faced this season, so the Sooners should average around their standard 7.3 yppl in this game. Oklahoma’s defense, however, has been susceptible to good offensive teams this season and Missouri’s offense is the best that they have seen. The Tigers have averaged 7.3 yppl in 11 games against 1A competition (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and their +1.9 yppl rating is almost as good as Oklahoma’s rating. Oklahoma’s defense, like Missouri’s defense, is 0.3 yppl better than average and the Sooners have allowed an average of 34 points to good offensive teams Texas, Nebraska, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State – and Missouri’s offense is better than all of those teams. The Sooners overall advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game is just 0.3 yppl – which works out to about 2 points with all else being equal. All else is not equal, however, as Oklahoma turns yards into points better than any team in the nation. Part of the reason for that is a +22 turnover margin, which is partly due to skill (Bradford has thrown just 6 interceptions this season) and partly due to luck, as the Soooners have only lost 2 fumbles all season while recovering 14 fumbles in 11 games against division 1 foes. Fumbles are 90% random in college football, so Oklahoma has been pretty fortunate to be +12 in fumble margin, which works out to about 4 points per game. Another reason for Oklahoma’s higher scoring efficiency is their incredibly good success rate on 3rd and 4th downs and the Sooners converted two 4th downs into touchdowns last week rather than settling for two field goals. One area where Oklahoma is not good is in special teams, as the Sooners have allowed 4 kick off return touchdowns this season, which could be a problem against Missouri’s Jeremy Maclin in this game. My math model projects Oklahoma with a 573 yards to 494 yards advantage and a +0.9 turnover advantage, which would result in about a 9 point margin even without factoring in special teams, which favor Missouri. My math model has a tendency to underestimate Oklahoma a bit since they score at a higher efficiency than a normal team would given the same yardage and turnover numbers. With that being the case I decided to run a model based on compensated points and adjusted for random events such as the Sooners’ +12 in fumble margin, and I got Oklahoma by 9 points with a total of 79 ½ points. Even if Oklahoma is their normal +1 in fumble margin that model would still favor the Sooners by only 12 points. Another way to look at the math using only points is to use margin of victory averages and schedule strengths. Oklahoma played a schedule of Division 1A teams that is 7.0 points better than average and they out-scored those teams by 26.1 points per game, which makes them +33.1 points better than average based purely on scoring. Missouri faced a schedule of 1A teams that is 4.1 points better than average and the Tigers out-scored those teams by an average of 17.8 points, which makes them +21.9 points better than average based purely on points. The difference in those point margin ratings is 11.2 points. But, that assumes that Oklahoma will be +2 in turnover margin in this game (since they average +1.9 in turnovers while Missouri averaged -0.2 in TO margin), which is very unlikely since past fumbles don’t correlate very highly with future fumbles and a big part of Oklahoma’s turnover margin is their +1.1 in fumbles. That prediction also assumes that the Sooners will continue to covert visits to the redzone into touchdowns at an 87% rate, which is also unlikely (Missouri has a great offense and they are at 72% touchdown rate in redzone visits, which is outstanding). So, Oklahoma should still only be favored by 11 points in this game even if the Sooners are as fortunate with turnovers and redzone scoring as they’ve been. The line on this game should be 9 points and 16 ½ points is simply way too high regardless of what kind of math you do, so Missouri is clearly the percentage side to take in this game. My only hesitation is a 14-0 ATS situation that I discovered when I was querying how teams that have scored 50 points or more in 3 or more consecutive games tend to do in their next game. The answer is as follows. Teams that have scored 50 points or more in 3 or more consecutive games are 14-0 ATS laying 21 points or less (or getting points) against a conference opponent that played the previous week. That is the only thing keeping me from making Missouri a Best Bet in this game and I’m still close to pulling the trigger on this game even with that trend favoring the Sooners. I’ll consider Missouri a Strong Opinion at +14 ½ points or more based on the line value.
Conference USA Conference
TULSA (-13.0) 36 East Carolina 29
09:00 AM Pacific Time Saturday, Dec-06 - Stats Matchup
Tulsa has one of the best offensive units in the nation even after adjusting for the low level of the defensive they’ve faced, but the Golden Hurricane are not so Golden on the defensive side of the ball and Pirates’ veteran quarterback Patrick Pinkney can take advantage of that unit and keep this game competitive. Tulsa has averaged an incredible 7.8 yards per play and 49.3 points per game against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl and 35.4 points per game to an average team, but East Carolina’s defense - although 0.1 yppl worse than average since losing star LB Quentin Cotton in week 3 – is significantly better than what Tulsa is used to facing. Tulsa has faced 4 mediocre defensive teams in their last 5 games (UCF, Arkansas, Houston, Marshall) and were held to an average of 35 points in those games, which should be about what they get here. East Carolina’s offense is 0.5 yppl worse than average thanks to a horrible rushing attack, but Pinkney is an above average passer and Tulsa has allowed 6.9 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.3 yppp against an average team. The Hurricanes are 1.0 yppl worse than average defensively overall and my math model projects 386 yards at 6.0 yppl for the Pirates in this game. My math favors Tulsa by only 10 points in this game and East Carolina is 18-4 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more under coach Skip Holtz, including two straight up wins this season over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. I’ll consider East Carolina a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more.
FLORIDA INTL. (-7.0) 28 Western Kentucky 16
04:00 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Dec-06 - Stats Matchup
Western Kentucky is 0-9 straight up against Division 1A teams this season and Florida International continues to be underrated. The Panthers lost by 7 points in overtime as a 4 point dog last week against Florida Atlantic, and they are 6-3-1 ATS in their other 10 games this season. FIU has a horrible rushing attack (3.7 yards per rushing play), but quarterback Paul McCall and WR T.Y. Hilton (969 yards at 24.8 ypc) are a big play tandem that should come up with a game changing play or two in this game. Overall, Florida International is average throwing the ball (which is good for a Sun Belt team) and 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively, but the Panthers are 0.1 yppl better than average defensively, allowing just 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. That unit should control a Western Kentucky offense that has averaged just 4.7 yppl and 13.3 points per game in 9 games against Division 1A opponents that would allow 5.6 yppl and 27.6 points to an average offensive unit. The Hilltoppers aren’t horrible on defense (0.4 yppl worse than average), but Florida International should score enough points to win this game by 7 points or more. My math model projects the Panthers as a 56.5% play at -7 points and I’ll consider Florida International a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
Pittsburgh 24 CONNECTICUT (-3.0) 21
09:00 AM Pacific Time Saturday, Dec-06 - Stats Matchup
Connecticut has just one win over a good team this season, a 40-16 home win over Cincinnati that was mostly the result of a +6 in turnover margin. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has beaten Iowa, won at South Florida, and upset West Virginia last week. The Huskies do have a good defense (4.8 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and a good rushing attack (5.4 yards per rushing play), but Pitt defends the run well (4.4 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp) and U Conn quarterback Tyler Lorenzen isn’t good enough to beat the Panthers through the air (just 5.0 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB). Overall, Pitt’s defense rates at 0.4 yppl better than average and the Panthers have a more balanced attack that is average running the ball and a bit better than average throwing it with Bill Stull at quarterback. My math model favors Pitt by 1 ½ points in this game and the Panthers apply to a solid 96-40-1 ATS last game revenge situation. I’ll consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at +1 or more.
Cincinnati (-7.5) 26 HAWAII 24
08:30 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Dec-06 - Stats Matchup
Cincinnati has already wrapped up a BCS Bowl game by winning the Big East, so it may be tough for the Bearcats to see this as anything other than a vacation. Teams that play their last regular season game of the season in Hawaii are just 11-22 ATS as favorites in that game, including 2-12 ATS if they played the previous week and Hawaii is a .500 team or better, as is the case this in this game. In addition to the natural tendency to take things easy on the Island, the Bearcats also apply to a very negative 18-77-3 ATS road letdown situation while Hawaii applies to a 189-87-6 ATS home momentum situation. The Warriors have thrived since Greg Alexander took over at quarterback in week 9 against Nevada, going 4-1 straight up in those games. Aside from being better on a yards per pass play basis than the other Hawaii quarterbacks, Alexander also has thrown just 1 interception in those 5 games and has thrown just 3 picks for the season on 164 pass attempts (he threw 2 in the opener against Florida in relief). The other Hawaii quarterbacks have combined to throw 17 interceptions on 240 pass attempts, which is why Hawaii struggled the first half of the season despite being a pretty good team from the line of scrimmage. Hawaii is 0.1 yppl better than average offensively with Alexander at the helm and the Warriors are average defensively. That’s not great, but it’s probably good enough to compete with a less than focused Cincinnati team. The only problem with this game is that my math model favors Cincy by 10 points if they are focused and play their normal game, so I will not make Hawaii a Best Bets even with all the strong technical indicators. I’ll consider Hawaii a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more and I’d take Hawaii in a 2-Star Best Bet at +9 points or more.
Big Twelve Conference
Oklahoma (-16.5) 45 Missouri 35 (at Kansas City)
05:00 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Dec-06 - Stats Matchup
I lost my Best Bet on Oklahoma State as a dog against Oklahoma last week, but I still think it was a pretty good bet. After all, Oklahoma State averaged 7.1 yards per play and scored almost every time they didn’t turn the ball over (they punted just twice, but turned the ball over twice while Oklahoma had zero turnovers) while Oklahoma averaged 6.8 yppl and would have averaged 5.9 yppl if not for a 73 yard TD pass that was initially broken up by the Cowboys before miraculously landing in the hands of an Oklahoma receiver 15 yards down the field with a clear path to the endzone. Now the Sooners are a 16 ½ point favorite over a good Missouri team, which is a line that simply can’t be justified. Oklahoma has an outstanding offense that has averaged 7.2 yppl and 53 points per game against Division 1A opponents and the Sooners rate at 2.2 yppl better than average with quarterback Sam Bradford under center. Missouri’s defense is 0.3 yppl better than average, which is the same as the average of teams that Oklahoma has faced this season, so the Sooners should average around their standard 7.3 yppl in this game. Oklahoma’s defense, however, has been susceptible to good offensive teams this season and Missouri’s offense is the best that they have seen. The Tigers have averaged 7.3 yppl in 11 games against 1A competition (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and their +1.9 yppl rating is almost as good as Oklahoma’s rating. Oklahoma’s defense, like Missouri’s defense, is 0.3 yppl better than average and the Sooners have allowed an average of 34 points to good offensive teams Texas, Nebraska, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State – and Missouri’s offense is better than all of those teams. The Sooners overall advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game is just 0.3 yppl – which works out to about 2 points with all else being equal. All else is not equal, however, as Oklahoma turns yards into points better than any team in the nation. Part of the reason for that is a +22 turnover margin, which is partly due to skill (Bradford has thrown just 6 interceptions this season) and partly due to luck, as the Soooners have only lost 2 fumbles all season while recovering 14 fumbles in 11 games against division 1 foes. Fumbles are 90% random in college football, so Oklahoma has been pretty fortunate to be +12 in fumble margin, which works out to about 4 points per game. Another reason for Oklahoma’s higher scoring efficiency is their incredibly good success rate on 3rd and 4th downs and the Sooners converted two 4th downs into touchdowns last week rather than settling for two field goals. One area where Oklahoma is not good is in special teams, as the Sooners have allowed 4 kick off return touchdowns this season, which could be a problem against Missouri’s Jeremy Maclin in this game. My math model projects Oklahoma with a 573 yards to 494 yards advantage and a +0.9 turnover advantage, which would result in about a 9 point margin even without factoring in special teams, which favor Missouri. My math model has a tendency to underestimate Oklahoma a bit since they score at a higher efficiency than a normal team would given the same yardage and turnover numbers. With that being the case I decided to run a model based on compensated points and adjusted for random events such as the Sooners’ +12 in fumble margin, and I got Oklahoma by 9 points with a total of 79 ½ points. Even if Oklahoma is their normal +1 in fumble margin that model would still favor the Sooners by only 12 points. Another way to look at the math using only points is to use margin of victory averages and schedule strengths. Oklahoma played a schedule of Division 1A teams that is 7.0 points better than average and they out-scored those teams by 26.1 points per game, which makes them +33.1 points better than average based purely on scoring. Missouri faced a schedule of 1A teams that is 4.1 points better than average and the Tigers out-scored those teams by an average of 17.8 points, which makes them +21.9 points better than average based purely on points. The difference in those point margin ratings is 11.2 points. But, that assumes that Oklahoma will be +2 in turnover margin in this game (since they average +1.9 in turnovers while Missouri averaged -0.2 in TO margin), which is very unlikely since past fumbles don’t correlate very highly with future fumbles and a big part of Oklahoma’s turnover margin is their +1.1 in fumbles. That prediction also assumes that the Sooners will continue to covert visits to the redzone into touchdowns at an 87% rate, which is also unlikely (Missouri has a great offense and they are at 72% touchdown rate in redzone visits, which is outstanding). So, Oklahoma should still only be favored by 11 points in this game even if the Sooners are as fortunate with turnovers and redzone scoring as they’ve been. The line on this game should be 9 points and 16 ½ points is simply way too high regardless of what kind of math you do, so Missouri is clearly the percentage side to take in this game. My only hesitation is a 14-0 ATS situation that I discovered when I was querying how teams that have scored 50 points or more in 3 or more consecutive games tend to do in their next game. The answer is as follows. Teams that have scored 50 points or more in 3 or more consecutive games are 14-0 ATS laying 21 points or less (or getting points) against a conference opponent that played the previous week. That is the only thing keeping me from making Missouri a Best Bet in this game and I’m still close to pulling the trigger on this game even with that trend favoring the Sooners. I’ll consider Missouri a Strong Opinion at +14 ½ points or more based on the line value.
Conference USA Conference
TULSA (-13.0) 36 East Carolina 29
09:00 AM Pacific Time Saturday, Dec-06 - Stats Matchup
Tulsa has one of the best offensive units in the nation even after adjusting for the low level of the defensive they’ve faced, but the Golden Hurricane are not so Golden on the defensive side of the ball and Pirates’ veteran quarterback Patrick Pinkney can take advantage of that unit and keep this game competitive. Tulsa has averaged an incredible 7.8 yards per play and 49.3 points per game against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl and 35.4 points per game to an average team, but East Carolina’s defense - although 0.1 yppl worse than average since losing star LB Quentin Cotton in week 3 – is significantly better than what Tulsa is used to facing. Tulsa has faced 4 mediocre defensive teams in their last 5 games (UCF, Arkansas, Houston, Marshall) and were held to an average of 35 points in those games, which should be about what they get here. East Carolina’s offense is 0.5 yppl worse than average thanks to a horrible rushing attack, but Pinkney is an above average passer and Tulsa has allowed 6.9 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.3 yppp against an average team. The Hurricanes are 1.0 yppl worse than average defensively overall and my math model projects 386 yards at 6.0 yppl for the Pirates in this game. My math favors Tulsa by only 10 points in this game and East Carolina is 18-4 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more under coach Skip Holtz, including two straight up wins this season over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. I’ll consider East Carolina a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more.
FLORIDA INTL. (-7.0) 28 Western Kentucky 16
04:00 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Dec-06 - Stats Matchup
Western Kentucky is 0-9 straight up against Division 1A teams this season and Florida International continues to be underrated. The Panthers lost by 7 points in overtime as a 4 point dog last week against Florida Atlantic, and they are 6-3-1 ATS in their other 10 games this season. FIU has a horrible rushing attack (3.7 yards per rushing play), but quarterback Paul McCall and WR T.Y. Hilton (969 yards at 24.8 ypc) are a big play tandem that should come up with a game changing play or two in this game. Overall, Florida International is average throwing the ball (which is good for a Sun Belt team) and 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively, but the Panthers are 0.1 yppl better than average defensively, allowing just 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. That unit should control a Western Kentucky offense that has averaged just 4.7 yppl and 13.3 points per game in 9 games against Division 1A opponents that would allow 5.6 yppl and 27.6 points to an average offensive unit. The Hilltoppers aren’t horrible on defense (0.4 yppl worse than average), but Florida International should score enough points to win this game by 7 points or more. My math model projects the Panthers as a 56.5% play at -7 points and I’ll consider Florida International a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
Pittsburgh 24 CONNECTICUT (-3.0) 21
09:00 AM Pacific Time Saturday, Dec-06 - Stats Matchup
Connecticut has just one win over a good team this season, a 40-16 home win over Cincinnati that was mostly the result of a +6 in turnover margin. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has beaten Iowa, won at South Florida, and upset West Virginia last week. The Huskies do have a good defense (4.8 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and a good rushing attack (5.4 yards per rushing play), but Pitt defends the run well (4.4 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp) and U Conn quarterback Tyler Lorenzen isn’t good enough to beat the Panthers through the air (just 5.0 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB). Overall, Pitt’s defense rates at 0.4 yppl better than average and the Panthers have a more balanced attack that is average running the ball and a bit better than average throwing it with Bill Stull at quarterback. My math model favors Pitt by 1 ½ points in this game and the Panthers apply to a solid 96-40-1 ATS last game revenge situation. I’ll consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at +1 or more.