12-7-08

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's Week 14 Las Vegas Insider (10-2 TY)

Larry and his "unmatched" contacts barely "broke a sweat" on Thanksgiving night, as the Eagles (-3) crushed the Cardinals, 48-20. The win upped Larry's season-long record with his exclusive NFL Insiders to 10-2 (83.3%)! His 'ASSAULT' on the NFL pointspread continues on Sunday. "It pays to be on the inside with Larry." Want in?


Green Bay Packers

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' NFL 25-Club (2-0 in NFL '08!)

Larry's 25-Club plays represent his 25 years in the business and get the highest star-rating he assigns any release here at CE (10*). He's released just two in NFL '08, winning with the Redkins (Week 3) and the Patriots (Week 10). It's very unlikely Larry will have another 25-Club this regular season, so "don't get caught on the sidelines!"

New Orleans

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS

I'm taking the points with SAN FRANCISCO. Its true that the Jets have enjoyed a great season. However, they didn't look too great last week though, as they lost by double-digits vs. a banged-up Broncos team, giving up nearly 500 combined yards in the process. Now, they have to travel to the West Coast to take on a 49ers team playing with a renewed confidence. Yes, the 49ers did get outgained yardage-wise last week. However, the defense stiffened when it counted and they limited another AFC East contender (Buffalo) to a single field goal in four trips inside the red zone. That type of motivation has come along with the coaching change from Nolan to Singletary. Defensive back Donald Strickland had this to say of his new coach: "He's a great motivator, but that's just one of his strengths. Everybody in this locker room has great respect for him, and the coaching staff has kept us in position to win games. Making a coaching change in the middle of the season could have been a distraction, but everybody here has kept working hard, and (Singletary) just increased our confidence all around." This will be the third time that the Jets, who have a big divisional clash vs. Buffalo on deck, have traveled to the West Coast this season. The first time they were out here, they got crushed by the Chargers. They followed that up by losing outright at Oakland. Expect them to have their hands full once again.





BURNS

I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. The Patriots are getting to the point where every game is a 'must win,' if they want to make the playoffs. Many can't imagine the Pats missing the playoffs and, as a result, they'll surely be a popular pick here. However, lets keep in mind that six of seven teams this millennium have missed the playoffs after losing in the Super Bowl the previous year. As you know, this year's Pats, who were blown out in the second half last week, have had to play without Tom Brady. They're also dealing with several other injuries at the moment too, though. Of course, they won't get any sympathy from the Seahawks, who have been dealing with injuries all year. Seattle is expected to be without Hasselbeck this afternoon. That's given us a couple of extra points on the line, as most bettors don't respect Seneca Wallace. However, the fact is that Hasselbeck hadn't been that good anyway and that the Seahawks actually had been playing pretty well when Wallace was previously under center. Yes, the Seahawks got blown out last week. However, that was at Dallas and there's no real shame in that. Note that their previous three losses had come by an average of only four points with none of them coming by more than six. The Seahawks are 7-2-1 ATS the last 10 times that they were coming off two or more consecutive losses, 11-7 ATS the last 18 times that they were home underdogs in the 3.5 to seven range and 6-4 ATS their last 10 games in December. Meanwhile, the Pats are 4-6 ATS their last 10 December games and just 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they faced a team with a losing record during the second half of the season. Look for an inspired effort from the Seahawks as they step up and thrive in the spoiler role





BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT

I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON. The Ravens (8-4) have been playing well and have a better record than the Redskins, who are 7-5. However, lets not forget that the Raven play in a division which includes Cincinnati and Cleveland and that they've gone 4-0 against those teams. On the other hand, the Redskins have no "easy" opponents in their division. As a result, one could easily argue that their 7-5 record is every bit as good as Baltimore's 8-4 one, particularly when noting that Baltimore is just 2-4 against teams with winning records. The Redskins have been at their best away from home this season. Indeed, they've won four of their five road games with the lone loss coming when they visited the defending Super Bowl champion Giants. The Redskins have also long excelled as road underdogs in this range. In fact, they're a highly profitable 29-12 the last 41 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to seven range. This is a critical game for the Redskins, as they absolutely cannot afford another loss. As Clinton Portis had to say: We're not out of the playoffs. Back two weeks ago, everybody was crucifying the Cowboys. Now they're back to America's greatest team. Now we're in the same situation." Look for the Skins to deliver a huge effort as the Ravens` struggles with winning teams continue. *Main Event




BEN BURNS
UNDERDOG GAME OF YEAR

I'm taking the points with the DETROIT LIONS. While not always the "popular" choice, often the best value can be found with the worst teams. Everyone saw how dismal Detroit looked on Thanksgiving Day while many saw the Vikings beat up on Chicago on Sunday night. Those results have helped provide exceptional line value with the Lions this week, as very few people are willing to play on them after that debacle. I expect Detroit, which was embarrassed by that performance and which has had an extra couple of days to prepare, to bounce back with a MUCH better effort this week. Kicker Jason Hanson spoke for the entire team when he said: "I know everybody in here feels embarrassed that we did that on national TV." The Lions played the Vikings tough at the Metrodome earlier in the season. Detroit took a lead into the fourth quarter and eventually lost by only two points, 12-10. In fact, the Lions very likely would have won that game if they hadn't been victimized by some questionable calls by the refs. After the game, Lions' cornerback Leigh Bodden was quoted as saying: "I hope we get an apology, but that's not going to get us a win. And that really took us away from getting the 'W' today." That figures to give the Lions even further motivation - not that they should need any. Even including last week's win, the Vikings are still just 1-5 ATS their last six games against divisional opponents, 1-4 ATS this season. That doesn't include a 20-17 loss the last time that they traveled to Detroit, which was early last season. Look for last week's embarrassing loss and also the earlier loss at the Metrodome to motivate the Lions, as they play their best game and give the Vikings all they can handle for the second time this season. *Underdog GOY





BEN BURNS
TOTAL OF THE MONTH

I'm playing on the Eagles and Giants to finish UNDER the total. These games were involved in a high-scoring game against each other at Philadelphia last month. That doesn't mean that this one will automatically be high-scoring though. In fact, quite often the opposite is true. We've already seen an example in an NFC East 'rematch' this season. Dallas and Washington went 'over' the total in the first meeting, combining for 50 points. However, the rematch saw the same teams combine for just 24 points. The Giants have been terrific on defense again this season, particularly here at home. In six games here, they're allowing an average of just 12.8 points and only 242 total yards. The champs have also admittedly been very strong on offense. However, not having Burress in the lineup is a big loss and this Philly defense is also more than capable. The Eagles are allowing 20.7 points per game and a mere 286.2 total yards. Last week, they limited a very high-scoring Arizona team to just 20 points. Prior to that, not including the game vs. the Giants, the Eagles had held three of four opponents to 14 points or less. Note that the Eagles have shown a tendency to play low-scoring games at this time of year in recent years. In fact, they've seen the UNDER go 6-2 in the final four weeks of the regular season the last two seasons. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 11-5 their last 16 road games played in the month of December. Including last month's result, the 'over' is now 7-3-1 the last 11 times that these teams faced each other at Philadelphia. However, the games at New York have been an entirely different matter. Last year's meeting produced only 19 points, as the Giants earned a 16-3 victory. That game was expected to be high-scoring, too, as it had an over/under line in the high 40s. Looking back a bit further and we find the UNDER at a highly profitable 11-3 the last 14 times that these teams faced each other at New York. On a chilly New York afternoon, look for this afternoon's game to prove lower-scoring than expected once again. *Total of the Month



BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with NEW ORLEANS. The Falcons have enjoyed a great season and are arguably the best story in the NFL. That being said, this is an extremely tough spot for them. For starters, they'll be facing a talented and angry Saints team which comes in with something to prove. Not only do the Saints absolutely need a win if they want to keep their fading playoff hopes alive but they're also looking to avenge an earlier loss at Atlanta. Additionally, the Falcons are playing their second straight road game after winning on the West Coast vs. San Diego last week. Last week's victory marked the third time this season that the Falcons have won two in a row. They've gone 0-2 when trying to win their third straight though. That brings them to an awful 0-6 (SU and ATS) the last six times that they were coming off consecutive victories. They haven't won three straight since 2005. The Saints have had some trouble on the road and came up just short at Tampa last week. They're an excellent 4-1 at home though and the lone loss came in a game (Vikings on MNF) in which they dominated but beat themselves with turnovers. It's also worth noting that the Saints are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS the last eight times that they were coming off a loss vs. a division opponent. The Saints got Bush back last week and the NFL has temporarily blocked the suspensions against Deuce McAllister and the other players which the NFL had previously suspended for the use of a banned diuretic. Prior to the earlier loss at Atlanta, the Saints had won four straight against the Falcons. They won those games by an average of 16 points with all four victories coming by a minimum of a field goal. With their season hanging in the balance, look for the desperate and revenge-minded Saints to bounce back and resume their dominance in this series. *Personal Favorite

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider -CBB

Larry's on a 24-11-1 run in CBB s/Nov 20. He continues his 'ASSAULT' on the CBB pointspread, as he and his "unmatched" contacts get set to deliver another easy winner today. In Saturday's CFB, Larry's Las Vegas Insider was a rout, as Navy (-11) beat Army, 34-0! His CBB Insider was on CS-Fullerton (-8), a 79-65 winner. Want in?

Maryland




Larry's Superstar Star Triple Play (3-in-1)

Larry's 10-3 (76.9%) with all his NFL plays from Week 11 thru 13, including winning his Superstar Triple Play (see bio) LW. He's back with another of his classic 3-in-1 reports, featuring his Total of the Week (4-0 w/NFL totals since Week 8), a Weekend Wipeout Winner and tonight's SNF. Want QUALITY and QUANTITY? Then look no further!

Total of the Week 15* NYJ/SF Over.

Weekend Wipeout Winner on the NE Pats.

Prime Time Delight 15* Bal Ravens

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider -CBB

Larry's on a 24-11-1 run in CBB s/Nov 20. He continues his 'ASSAULT' on the CBB pointspread, as he and his "unmatched" contacts get set to deliver another easy winner today. In Saturday's CFB, Larry's Las Vegas Insider was a rout, as Navy (-11) beat Army, 34-0! His CBB Insider was on CS-Fullerton (-8), a 79-65 winner. Want in?

Maryland

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

25 Dimes Pittsburgh
5 Dime 6 pt. Teaser Philly / Balt.
Free Pick SF

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al so far:

NBA

3* Indiana





Ncaab


3* Arizona State 2pm

3* Missouri Tigers 2pm



NFL


3* Jacksonville

3* Detroit


3* Washington


3* Philly

3* UNDER Arizona game

1* Pittsburgh steelers

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer's


NFL KNOCKOUT **GAME OF THE MONTH!** (4-1, 80% Winners)
Cost: $40 Ungraded
Handicapper: Scott Spreitzer
League: NFL
Event: New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks on 12/07/2008 at 1:05PM
Condition: New England Patriots


Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: My Knockout GOM is a play on the Patriots, minus points over the Seahawks. Life just went from bad to worse for Seattle when it was announced that Hasselbeck did not practice on Friday. In fact, Seneca Wallace took all of the snaps. Coach Holmgren says Hasselbeck will be a gametime decision. I don't care whether he goes or not. The offense needs to be able to sustain drives in this one and they haven't done that consistently no matter who's been under center. Seattle is averaging just 257.3 yards per game and just 18 points per game. NT Vince Wilfork ought to have a field day in this one. He's matched up with rookie center Steve Vallos. The banged-up interior of the o-line is going to have to deal with New England's 3/4 inside stunts, for starters. The reason they need time-consuming possessions is because their defense is beginning to fall apart at the seams. Seattle's stop-unit has been so in name only for the last three games. They are getting drilled for over 425 total yards per game. They're providing very little resistance through the air, allowing 19 TD passes. Now, they have to mess with an angry and embarrassed Patriot team. New England fumbled and bumbled their way to an ugly loss to the Steelers, which sets up a PERFECT organizational spot. The Patriots are on a 10-0 SU/ATS run on the road following an outright loss. Look for New England to use several different formations to spread this tired and injured Seattle defense out. Kevin Faulk should have a huge game in this matchup, and Randy Moss will exploit the weak secondary. This Seahawk defense just got nailed for 447 yards by Dallas, and have allowed teams to top 400 yards on five occasions this season. Watch the Pats come out with an uptempo offense, spreading the defense all over the field with runs and short dumpoffs, leading to a few downfield connections between Cassel and Moss. I expect this one to get ugly and for the Patriots to extend their perfect 10-0 run mentioned above. I'm laying the points with the Pats, my NFL Knockout GOM. Thanks! GL! Scott.





Scott Spreitzer's 25* NFL SUNDAY BLOWOUT! *Won by 20 Last Week with Vikings!
Cost: $40 Ungraded
Handicapper: Scott Spreitzer
League: NFL
Event: Washington Redskins vs Baltimore Ravens on 12/07/2008 at 5:15PM
Condition: Washington Redskins

Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: I'm taking the points with the Redskins on Sunday night. This matchup finally gives the Redskin passing game a chance for downfield completions. Washington's wideouts are much quicker than Baltimore's shallow defensive backfield. Samari Rolle is a quality veteran, but he's no doubt lost a step. Moss and Randle-El should have their way enough in this one to help open up a little running room for Clinton Portis. In fact, Portis participated in Friday's practice and he's slated to start tonight. Yes, Baltimore has been stout against the run, but I belileve with the passing game keeping the defense honest and with a physical offensive line, Portis can run effeiciently enough to move the sticks consistently. And, don't forget, athletic TE Chris Cooley can give this Ravens' stop unit fits. Defensively, the Skins must force the onus of the offense on QB Joe Flacco's shoulders. Look for Washington to bring an extra man in the box to try and slow down the running game. It looks as though McGahee is going to start for Baltimore, but he's not 100% healthy. Washington DC Greg Blache has directed one of the top stop units in the league and I believe we'll see a variety of stunts to force Flacco to go up top more than the Ravens truly would like to. The Redskins need a win, no doubt. Getting away from home looks like the best way to accomplish that goal. Washington is a healthy 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS on the road in '08! I believe the Skins will win this contest outright, but my play is to take the points for insurance. Washington is my Sunday Night Knockout. Thanks! GL! Scott.








Scott Spreitzer's DIVISIONAL G.O.M. TOPS 3-PLAY NFL TRIFECTA! *6-1, 86% in '08!
Cost: $45 Ungraded
Handicapper: Scott Spreitzer
League: NFL
Event: Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints on 12/07/2008 at 10:00AM
Condition: New Orleans Saints

Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: I'm laying the points with the Saints on Sunday. I had the Falcons last week as part of my 3-play package and we were rewarded with a 22-16 outright win in San Diego. But this is tough duty, going on the road again, and this time against a well-oiled (at home) offense in a big situation. The Saints have been absolutely nasty in the Superdome this season going 4-1 SU/ATS, averaging 427 yards along the way. In fact, they have dominated at home, with an average score of 33-20. New Orleans looked superb in their last home game, then lost to TB on the road, despite out-playing the Buccs for most of the game. The Saints lost in Atlanta by 14 a few weeks ago, but you'd never know it from the boxscore. Brees went nuts in the second half and the Saints finished with a 521-361 yardage advantage, along with seven more first downs. Brees has seen every blitz schemes imaginable and has ripped through most. Atlanta's won't phase him a bit. Defensively, look for the Saints' linebackers to get off blocks quickly and stuff the Atlanta ground game. As well as Matt Ryan has played, he can't trade points with New Orleans without a strong game from Michael Turner. I believe the Saints will force Ryan into uncomfortable passing situations and force enough mistakes to allow their offense to run away with the game. I'm laying the points with New Orleans, my Divisional GOM on Sunday.









Handicapper: Scott Spreitzer
League: NFL
Event: Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants on 12/07/2008 at 10:00AM
Condition: Philadelphia Eagles

Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: I'm taking the points with the Eagles on Sunday. It took a near meltdown, but Philadelphia finally clicked on the offensive side of the football. It didn't hurt that Brian Westbrook was the healthiest he's been in quite some time. Westbrook practiced on Wednesday and then took a planned day off on Thursday to ensure his knee's well-being. In fact, he said after Wednesday's practice that he's feeling his best in quite some time. Obviously, this is a much different offense when their MVP is in uniform. In this game, look for Philly to use plenty of designed roll-outs. McNabb has this in his arsenal and it can neutralize the Giants' pass rush a bit. That's of huge importance because the NYG secondary is just "ok". They're truly nothing special in deep pass coverage, but the front-seven's tremendous season has masked it all year. One of the other reasons Philly's offense finally got it together last week was due to the return to health of WR Kevin Curtis. The team no longer has to rotate as much as they did when he was out. I believe the Eagles receivers will be able to create some mismatches in the passing game. Defensively, look for Philly to be physical at the line of scrimmage with the Giants' wideouts. No Plaxico Burress means no serious vertical threat on every down any more. Also, expect DC Jim Johnson to apply sufficient pressure against the run, while not having to sacrifice any of his normal blitz packages. The Giants may be the best team in the NFL right now, but they're not without a couple of weaknesses, and Philly owns the arsenal (finally healthy) to take advantage. I'm taking the points with the Eagles, my Sunday Shocker.






Handicapper: Scott Spreitzer
League: NFL
Event: Houston Texans vs Green Bay Packers on 12/07/2008 at 10:00AM
Condition: Green Bay Packers

Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: I'm laying the points with Green Bay on Sunday. This is a ridiculously tough situation for Houston who has to play in frigid Green Bay following their emotional MNF win over Jacksonville. And, they have to take on a Packer team that absolutely has to win on Sunday after dropping back-to-back decisions. The home team owns a huge matchup mismatch on the field in this one and not just due to the situation. The mismatch comes in the passing game where Green Bay receivers Driver and Jennings should have huge days against a secondary that has allowed almost twice as many touchdown passes as interceptions (17-9). QB Aaron Rodgers has taken some unfair criticism for the Packers losing record. He's playing well, expecially at home where he owns a 10-3, TD/INT ratio and nearly a 70% completion rate. Rodgers also throws well on the run, which somewhat neutralizes Houston DE Mario Williams and the suddenly aggressive Texans' defense. They also have the RBs to counter the aggressive play, whether Ryan Grant is healthy or not. Brandon Jackson is really beginning to come into his own and had a strong game last week against Carolina. Defensively, the Pack will load up in the box to force Schaub (expected to start) or Rosenfels to win this game with their arm. Neither has been able to do that consistently, obviously. And, in this situation, it'll be even tougher. I expect a big game from DE Aaron Kampman, and once Houston's basic sets are disrupted, he and the Packers should get plenty of pressure on the Houston signal-caller. The Texans are on a 3-9 spread slide away from home, while the Packers 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite. Look for Green Bay to grab the win and cover on Sunday.

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Titans
Millionaire- 49ers
Money Maker- Bills
No Limit- Lions
Insiders Circle- Saints
Billionaire- Seahawks

Hoop:

Chairman- Bradley
Millionaire- Kansas St