12-9-08

[Mr. IWS]

SEND IT IN JEROME!!!!!!

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Tuesday

10 Dime Texas

FREE - West Virginia

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's TUESDAY NBA BANK SHOT WINNER (2-0 MONDAY)

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs plus the points over Dallas

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CBB (26-11-1 CBB run since Nov 20)

My Oddsmaker's Error is on Villanova at 9:00 ET.

[Mr. IWS]

LARRY NESS

Toledo @ Wright State
PICK: Wright State

What's going on here? Wright State hired Brad Brownell away from NC-Wilmington and two years ago, won the Horizon tourney, made the NCAAs and won 23 games led by player-of-the year, DaShaun Wood. The Raiders lost Wood last year but still won 21 games, behind the backcourt duo of Duggins (13.8) and Brown (12.7). While TY's team did lose two key frontcourt players in Plieman (8.1-6/1) and Wilson (9.8-7.2), most expected the Raiders to give the Horizon title a run again this year. So far, not so good. Wright State has yet to win (0-6) and Duggins is expected to be out four weeks with a finger injury. Brown is averaging only 5.2 PPG and little, if anything, has gone right. However, Toledo is just 2-6 and could surely play the perfect foil here, as WSU picks up its first win of the season. Gene Cross (former Notre Dame assistant), has his first head coaching job, taking over for Stan Joplin (gone after more than a decade at Toledo). The Rockets were just 11-19 last year and the administration wanted a change. One thing that hasn't changed for the Rockets is that Kent, the MAC's leading scorer last year, is again leading the way for Toledo, averaging 16.9 PPG and 5.0 RPG. Swingman Amos (10.8-5.1) plus veteran guards Byrd (7.6) and Johnson (5.3) are OK, while up front, the 6-9 Anyijong (7.9-5.6) and Lo (2.8-3.4), starters last year, are fighting for playing time this year. Cross was supposed to have a very good freshman class but it has underachieved, so far. Guards Batsfield (2.5) and Sterling (1.8) have done almost nothing, while in the frontcourt, the 6.7 Okafor (2.2-2.0), the 6-9 Tubbs (2.0) and the 6-10 Salter (2.5-2.4) have been equally unimpressive. However, Brownell "can coach" and the losing WON'T continue. He's gotten some nice play out of 6-7 CC player Cooperwood (10.0-5.8) plus a handful of guards. Gardiner followed Brownell from Wilmington and after playing just 11 games LY with injuries, is averaging 6.5 PPG this season. Graham is a decent PG (6.3) and Evans (5.5) has shown some signs of making an impact in his sophomore year. Let's lay the points with this winless (until tonight!) team.

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

Personal Favorite
I'm laying the points with CHICAGO.


Eastern Conf. GOW
I'm taking the points with TORONTO.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob, paid and confirmed.


NBA
2 Star Selection
Milwaukee (+7) over PHOENIX
09-Dec-08 06:05 PM Pacific Time
The Suns broke their 4 game losing streak with a 106-104, non covering win over the Jazz that ran their spread losing streak to 5 games. I expect that streak to continue, as breaking that losing streak is not a sign that things are suddenly alright in Phoenix. The Suns apply to a negative 23-61-1 ATS situation that is based on the breaking of their recent losing streak (good teams that break a 4 game or more losing skid are bad bets in their next game) and Milwaukee is an underrated team that is now 15-6-1 ATS for the season. My ratings, using the Suns games in which both Steve Nash and Shaquille O’Neal both played, favors Phoenix by just 6 points, so we have a bit of line value on our side too. I’ll take Milwaukee in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.
2-Stars at +6 points or more.

COLLEGE
3 Star Selection
IOWA (-7 ½) over Northern Iowa
09-Dec-08 04:00 PM Pacific Time
It was expected that Northern Iowa could overcome the loss of top player Eric Coleman with the return of 3 other starters and the addition of pointguard Kwadzo Ahelegbe, who missed last season with an injury. However, the returning players have not been able to make up for Coleman’s lost offensive production (Coleman made 55.1% of his shots last season while the rest of the Panthers made just 42.4% from the field) and the Panthers are playing considerably worse on the defensive side of the floor this season. While Northern Iowa is worse than expected, Iowa is better than expected. The Hawkeyes were expected to be better in former Butler coach Todd Lickliter’s second season at the helm, but the great play of freshman guards Anthony Tucker (13.1 points, 44% 3-point shooting) and Matt Gatens (10.8 points, 3.7 assists, 53.4% shooting and 57% from 3-point range) was unexpected and has the Hawkeyes playing much better than anticipated. Lickliter has assembled a team of very good shooters, just like he had at Butler, and his team is shooting 49% from the field and knocking down 42% of their 3-point shots while also playing good defense (40.7% shooting allowed). Unfortunately, Tucker has been suspended for violation of team rules, but his scoring efficiency isn’t too much better than the rest of the team’s combined scoring efficiency and I calculate his loss to the offense at just 0.7 points per game. Tucker only averages 0.7 assists and he defense has been mediocre based on his modest 0.6 steals per game, so I don’t see Iowa being more than a point worse overall without Tucker. In fact, the Hawkeyes played very well in a 2 point loss on the road against a good Boston College team with Tucker playing just 8 minutes and going scoreless (Iowa’s game rating for that game was a few points higher than their average rating). Using this year’s games only would favor Iowa by 13 ½ points after adjusting for the glacial pace of this game (12 ½ without Tucker), but I don’t expect Northern Iowa to continue to play so poorly on defense. If the Panthers defend at the level they did last season (on a points per possession basis) then I’d favor Iowa by 9 ½ points. Either way, the line is too low and Iowa applies to a very good 128-44-4 ATS non-conference home favorite situation. I’ll take Iowa in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ and -10 points.
3-Stars at -9 or less, 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob Opinions

Tuesday NBA Opinions
CLEVELAND (-12 ½) over Toronto
The Cavaliers are rolling. Cleveland is now 17-3 straight up and 16-4 ATS, including 14-2 ATS as a favorite. Good teams tend to letdown against bad teams, but that has not been the case for Cleveland, who has played relatively better against worse than average teams this season. Toronto is a team that is 3 points worse than average thanks to a lack of defense (47% FG allowed) and my ratings favor the Cavaliers by 16 ½ points in this game even if I factor in the normal letdown for big favorites. Cleveland’s average margin of victory at home is 17.1 points against a schedule of teams that is a bit better than Toronto, so winning by more than 12 points shouldn’t be much of a task. The only thing keeping me from making this a Best Bet is Toronto’s history in games following a loss with star Chris Bosh in the lineup (46-24-1 ATS). Toronto is 31-11-1 ATS with Bosh after a loss when the opponent is off a win, but the Raptors are only 3-4 ATS in that role this season, including 3 straight spread losses. I’ll lean with Cleveland at -13 or less based on the line value.

SACRAMENTO (+12) over L.A. Lakers
The Kings are a bad team that doesn’t play any defense, but the Lakers may not take this game seriously and laying 11 points or more on the road in the NBA is simply too much. Road favorites of 11 points or more are just 62-92-4 ATS if the home team is coming off a loss, including the Lakers’ uninspired 106-104 win at Washington on Friday night. If the big road favorite has had no more than 1 day off then the record is just 45-79-2 ATS and the Lakers apply to a 12-42 ATS subset of that. The Kings apply to a few big dog situations too, but the line on this game should be 13 points (it opened at 13 ½ points), so some of the value of the situation has been taken away by the line move. I’ll still lean with Sacramento at +12 or more.

[Mr. IWS]

burns nhl on fire 11-2 26-9

Montreal Canadians -145 for 3 units